New light on the Black Death Bruce M. S. Campbell Professor of Medieval Economic History, The Queen’s University of The plague in Tournai London plague burials Y. Pestis phylogenetic tree Fundación Ramón Areces
New light on the Black Death Bruce M. S. Campbell Professor of Medieval Economic History, The Queen’s University of Belfast [email protected] The.
Dec 26, 2015
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New light on
the Black Death
Bruce M. S. CampbellProfessor of Medieval Economic
History,
The Queen’s University of [email protected]
The plague in Tournai
London plague burials
Y. Pestis phylogenetic tree
Fundación Ramón Areces
Today, plague is a global disease with 1,000-2,000 cases a year reported to the World Health Organisation.Plague cases and deaths are both greatest in sub-Saharan Africa.WORLD NEWS (August 2013):
15-year old herdsman dies of plague in
Krygyzstan.
WORLD NEWS (January 2015):
40 plague deaths in 2014 in
Madagascar!
WORLD NEWS (July 2014): Chinese city of Yumen sealed off after a man contracts plague from an infected marmot and dies.
Today, plague is a global disease with 1,000-2,000 cases a year reported to the World Health Organisation.Plague cases and deaths are both greatest in sub-Saharan Africa.Fear of plague derives from history’s 3 great pandemics: AD 541: First Pandemic (Justinianic Plague)
– devastated the Byzantine Empire. 1346: Second Pandemic (Black Death) –
spread throughout the Known World and killed 30%-40% of a European population of c.80 million (24-32m.).
1855: Third Pandemic – broke out in Yunnan Province of China; spread worldwide; the first to be medically analysed and diagnosed.
1250 1275 1300 1325 1350 1375 1400 1425 1450 1475 15000
25
50
75
100
125
Europe (100 = 79m)
England (100 = 4.75m)
Italy north-centre (100 = 7.75m)
Decades
Ind
ex
ed
po
pu
lati
on
(1
00
= A
D 1
30
0)
The impact of the Black Death and its sequel plagues upon European populations was massive and long lasting:
1300
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England Italy
Spain
Quinquennia
Ind
ex
ed
GD
P (
10
0 =
me
an
13
40
s)
Economic output also contracted almost everywhere, as plague killed both producers and consumers:
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1310
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England Spain Italy Holland
GD
P p
er
he
ad
(1
00
= m
ea
n 1
31
0s
-13
40
s)
Decades
Indexed GDP per head
In terms of GDP per head, loss of numbers proved to be beneficial for England and Holland, a mixed blessing for Italy, and a significant setback for Spain:
125012521254125612581260126212641266126812701272127412761278128012821284128612881290129212941296129813001302130413061308131013121314131613181320132213241326132813301332133413361338134013421344134613481350135213541356135813601362136413661368137013721374137613781380138213841386138813901392139413961398140014021404140614081410141214141416141814201422142414261428143014321434143614381440144214441446144814501452145414561458146014621464146614681470147214741476147814801482148414861488149014921494149614981500150215041506150815101512151415161518152015221524152615281530153215341536153815401542154415461548155015521554155615581560156215641566156815701572157415761578158015821584158615881590159215941596159816001602160416061608161016121614161616181620162216241626162816301632163416361638164016421644164616481650165216541656165816601662166416661668167016721674167616781680168216841686168816901692169416961698170017021704170617081710171217141716171817201722172417261728173017321734173617381740174217441746174817501752175417561758176017621764176617681770177217741776177817801782178417861788179017921794179617981800180218041806180818101812181418161818182018221824182618281830183218341836183818401842184418461848185018521854185618581860186218641866186850
75
100
125
150
175
200
Nominal wages of farm workers as % of previous 31 years
(source: Gregory Clark)
Years
% w
ag
e
Black Death
Reformation
Napoleonic Wars
Tudor price inflation
In England the sudden scarcity of labour triggered the single greatest inflation in labourers’ daily wage rates on historical record.
In Siena work on the vast new nave being
added to the cathedral of
Santa Maria Assunta was abandoned and
never resumed.
In Siena work on the vast new nave being
added to the cathedral of
Santa Maria Assunta was abandoned and
never resumed.
In neighbouringFlorence, work on
Giotto’s new Campanile was
suspended at the second stage and
only resumed after an interval of 10 years.
1300
1301
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-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Net cumulative total oaks started
Real farm wage rate (5 yr m.a.)
Ind
ex
ed
wa
ge
/ C
um
ula
tiv
e s
tart
da
tes
PRE-PLAGUE POST-PLAGUE
DEPLETION REGENERATION
Irish
English
Across Europe woodland regenerated as:
Construction activity almost ceased.
Farmland was abandoned.
Epidemiologically, demographically, environmentally, economically and culturally, the Black Death was a watershed historical event.
What disease was
it?
The list of suspects has included: bubonic plague (Shrewsbury, 1971, and many others)
anthrax (Twigg, 1984)
a viral haemorrhagic fever (Scott & Duncan, 2001)
a now extinct disease (Cohn, 2002)
biological fallout from an extra- terrestrial impact in Jan. 1348 (Baillie, 2006)
something else entirely . . . . .
PNASProceedings of the National Academy of Sciencesof the United States of America
November 2000, Volume 97, no. 23, pp. 12800-12803.
Claimed to have identified the DNA of Yersinia pestis (bubonic plague) in the dental pulp of medieval plague burials at Montpellier in southern France.
impreci
secontaminated
unrepresentativ
e
The first forensic evidenc
e
October 7, 2010
STOP PRESSaDNA analysis proves the Black Death was vector-borne Yersinia Pestis after all!
Since 2010 confirmation that the Black Death was indeed bubonic plague, i.e. Yersinia pestis, has come from aDNA analysis of dental remains from datable 14th-century plague burials in 5 Western European countries:
1. France (Saint Laurent-de-la-Cabrerisse) 2. Italy (Parma & Venice) 3. Southern Germany (Augsburg) 4. The Netherlands (Bergen op Zoom) 5. England (Hereford and East Smithfield,
London).A Rapid Diagnostic Test has yielded complementary results.Crucially, these aDNA results have been obtained in separate laboratories by independent teams of scientists.
Meanwhile, a 23-strong team of biologists & geneticists has reconstructed the Yersinia pestis phylogenetic tree:
Giovanna Morelli and 22 others (2010), ‘Yersinia pestis genome sequencing identifies patterns of global phylogenetic diversity’, Nature Genetics 42 (12), 1140-43.
This has since been amplified and redefined in a key paper by Yujun Cui and 32 others to show where the Black Death genomes fit in:
‘Population structure of Y. pestis revealed by core genome SNP analysis’, PNAS 110 (2), 2013, 577-82.
Genetic reconstruction has yielded the following key conclusions:1. Y. pestis evolves clonally; small mutations
differentiate plague’s different branches (polytomies) and strains.
2. Fresh polytomies are prone to emerge during major epizootics/panzootics.
3. Almost all strains are capable of infecting and killing humans.
4. There is nothing to suggest that the genomes responsible for the Black Death were more dangerous than any others.
5. The 1st and 2nd Pandemics arose from different crossovers of the pathogen from animals to humans.
Genetic reconstruction has yielded the following key conclusions:6. The plague genome embodies its own
evolutionary history and pattern of spread.7. Individual strains tend to be country-specific.8. Regions where plague has existed longest
tend to exhibit the greatest genomic diversity and the presence of the earliest genotypes.
Genetic reconstruction has yielded the following key conclusions:6. The plague genome embodies its own
evolutionary history and pattern of spread.7. Individual strains tend to be country-specific.8. Regions where plague has existed longest
tend to exhibit the greatest genomic diversity and the presence of the earliest genotypes.
9. Geographically, the semi-arid Qinghai-Tibet Plateau of Western China appears to have been the ultimate origin of the Black Death.
The Qinghai-Tibet Plateau of Western China
Genetic reconstruction has yielded the following key conclusions:6. The plague genome embodies its own
evolutionary history and pattern of spread.7. Individual strains tend to be country-specific.8. Regions where plague has existed longest
tend to exhibit the greatest genomic diversity and the presence of the earliest genotypes.
9. Geographically, the semi-arid Qinghai-Tibet Plateau of Western China appears to have been the ultimate origin of the Black Death.
10.Temporally, the Black Death genome emerged during a biological ‘big bang’ shortly after 1268 (Cui and others, 2013) or 1282 (Bos and others, 2011).
c.1268/1282
Qinghai-Tibet is one of several regions where permanent (enzootic) reservoirs of plague exist among ground-burrowing and hibernating sylvatic rodents, in this case great gerbils :
The plague cycle:The transformation of plague from an enzootic disease among maintenance hosts of wild-rodents to a fast-spreading and deadly human pandemic entailed at least 4, and possibly 5, stages:
The plague cycle:Stage 1 – enzootic plague
1
2
The plague cycle:Stage 2 – epizootic plague
3
The plague cycle:Stage 3 – panzootic plague
4
The plague cycle:Stage 4 – Zoonotic plague
A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
Month
Nu
mb
er
of
de
ath
s
Givry (Burgundy), 1348
Penrith (N England), 1597-9
5The plague cycle:Stage 5 – Pandemic plague
The plague cycle:Historically, climatic conditions in Arid Central Asia have exercised a powerful influence upon the incidence of plague, either lowering or raising the risks of enzootic plague becoming amplified into epizootic plague etc.
The Oslo plague team led by Nils Chr. Stenseth has investigated and established a link between climate, gerbil populations, and outbreaks of Yersinia pestis in the water-limited steppe grasslands of southern Kazakhstan:
Drought lowered the risks of plague outbreaks by depressing biomass output, food availability, and gerbil populations and, at the same time, inhibiting flea activity.
These were the conditions that prevailed in Arid Central Asia throughout the Medieval Solar Maximum between the end of the 1st Pandemic in the the 8th century and start of the 2nd Pandemic in the 14th century.
1270
s-13
30s
Wo
lf M
inim
um
800s
810s
820s
830s
840s
850s
860s
870s
880s
890s
900s
910s
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1010s
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1300s
1310s
1320s
1330s
1340s
1350s
1360s
1370s
1380s
1390s
50
100
150
Sunspot numbers from dendro
Decades
Ind
exed
valu
e
(10
0 =
avera
ge 1
00
0-
15
00
)
Medieval Solar Maximum 1070s-
1260s
Drought lowered the risks of plague outbreaks by depressing biomass output, food availability, and gerbil populations and, at the same time, inhibiting flea activity.
These were the conditions that prevailed in Arid Central Asia throughout the Medieval Solar Maximum between the end of the 1st Pandemic in the the 8th century and start of the 2nd Pandemic in the 14th century.
1270
s-13
30s
Wo
lf M
inim
um
900
910
920
930
940
950
960
970
980
990
1000
1010
1020
1030
1040
1050
1060
1070
1080
1090
1100
1110
1120
1130
1140
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1160
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1180
1190
1200
1210
1220
1230
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1280
1290
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1390
1400
1410
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1430
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1460
1470
1480
1490
-1.0
-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
< D
RIE
R I
nd
ex W
ETTER
>
800s 810s 820s 830s 840s 850s 860s 870s 880s 890s 900s 910s 920s 930s 940s 950s 960s 970s 980s 990s 1000s 1010s 1020s 1030s 1040s 1050s 1060s 1070s 1080s 1090s 1100s 1110s 1120s 1130s 1140s 1150s 1160s 1170s 1180s 1190s 1200s 1210s 1220s 1230s 1240s 1250s 1260s 1270s 1280s 1290s 1300s 1310s 1320s 1330s 1340s 1350s 1360s 1370s 1380s 1390s
Total Solar Irradiance from ice cores
Decades
Increasing aridity
Onset of pluvial conditions increased the risks of plague outbreaks by raising biomass output, food availability, and gerbil populations and, at the same time, stimulating flea activity.
These were the conditions that prevailed in Arid Central Asia following onset of the Wolf Solar Minimum and especially from the 14th century as part of a global reorganization of atmospheric circulation.
1270
s-13
30s
Wo
lf M
inim
um
900
910
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930
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1010
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1490
-1.0
-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
< D
RIE
R I
nd
ex W
ETTER
>
800s 810s 820s 830s 840s 850s 860s 870s 880s 890s 900s 910s 920s 930s 940s 950s 960s 970s 980s 990s 1000s 1010s 1020s 1030s 1040s 1050s 1060s 1070s 1080s 1090s 1100s 1110s 1120s 1130s 1140s 1150s 1160s 1170s 1180s 1190s 1200s 1210s 1220s 1230s 1240s 1250s 1260s 1270s 1280s 1290s 1300s 1310s 1320s 1330s 1340s 1350s 1360s 1370s 1380s 1390s
Total Solar Irradiance from ice cores
Decades
Increasing humidity
900
910
920
930
940
950
960
970
980
990
1000
1010
1020
1030
1040
1050
1060
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1080
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1100
1110
1120
1130
1140
1150
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1200
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1360
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1380
1390
1400
1410
1420
1430
1440
1450
1460
1470
1480
1490
-1.0
-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
Decades
< D
RIE
R
Mo
istu
re/P
rec
ipit
ati
on
ind
ex
W
ET
TE
R >
900
910
920
930
940
950
960
970
980
990
1000
1010
1020
1030
1040
1050
1060
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1080
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1100
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1120
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1140
1150
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1190
1200
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1280
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1300
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1400
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1430
1440
1450
1460
1470
1480
1490
-1.0
-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
Arid Central Asia moisture index Morocco precipitation index Scotland precipitation index
Decades
< D
RIE
R
Mo
istu
re/P
rec
ipit
ati
on
ind
ex
W
ET
TE
R >
Changes in atmospheric circulation across inner Eurasia
900
910
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980
990
1000
1010
1020
1030
1040
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1060
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1080
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1120
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1200
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1360
1370
1380
1390
1400
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1420
1430
1440
1450
1460
1470
1480
1490
-1.0
-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
Arid Central Asia moisture index Morocco precipitation index Scotland precipitation index
Decades
< D
RIE
R
Mo
istu
re/P
rec
ipit
ati
on
ind
ex
W
ET
TE
R >
Changes in atmospheric circulation across inner Eurasia
S t ro n g We s t e r l i e s
Weak Westerlies
900
910
920
930
940
950
960
970
980
990
1000
1010
1020
1030
1040
1050
1060
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1080
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1380
1390
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1460
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1480
1490
-1.0
-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
Arid Central Asia moisture index Morocco precipitation index Scotland precipitation index
Decades
< D
RIE
R
Mo
istu
re/P
rec
ipit
ati
on
ind
ex
W
ET
TE
R >
Changes in atmospheric circulation across inner Eurasia
800
810
820
830
840
850
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880
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900
910
920
930
940
950
960
970
980
990
1000
1010
1020
1030
1040
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1070
1080
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1110
1120
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1140
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1160
1170
1180
1190
1200
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1220
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1240
1250
1260
1270
1280
1290
1300
1310
1320
1330
1340
1350
1360
1370
1380
1390
-1.00
-0.50
0.00
0.50
1.00
Decades
< D
RIE
R
Pre
cip
ita
tio
n in
de
x
WE
TT
ER
>
Oort SolarMin.
WolfSolar
MinimumMedieval Solar Maximum
Parallel changes were taking place in the strength of the South Asian Monsoon:
S t ro n g m o n s o o n
Weakening monsoon
12
80s
dro
ugh
t
Mega drought
Weak Westerlies
900
910
920
930
940
950
960
970
980
990
1000
1010
1020
1030
1040
1050
1060
1070
1080
1090
1100
1110
1120
1130
1140
1150
1160
1170
1180
1190
1200
1210
1220
1230
1240
1250
1260
1270
1280
1290
1300
1310
1320
1330
1340
1350
1360
1370
1380
1390
1400
1410
1420
1430
1440
1450
1460
1470
1480
1490
-1.0
-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0Arid Central Asia moisture index Morocco precipitation index
Decades
< D
RIE
R
Mo
istu
re/P
rec
ipit
ati
on
ind
ex
W
ET
TE
R >
Plague’s reactivation from an enzootic to an epizootic state sometime after 1268/1282 coincided with an episode of global climate reorganisation:
Dendrochronologies from Central Asia bring this episode into sharper focus:
1250
1255
1260
1265
1270
1275
1280
1285
1290
1295
1300
1305
1310
1315
1320
1325
1330
1335
1340
1345
50
75
100
125
150
Mongolia (Siberian pine) NE Tibet (Juniper)Tien Shan (Juniper )
Years
Ind
ex
ed
rin
g w
idth
(1
00
= m
ea
n 1
15
0-1
34
9)
Dendrochronologies from Central Asia bring this episode into sharper focus:
1250
1255
1260
1265
1270
1275
1280
1285
1290
1295
1300
1305
1310
1315
1320
1325
1330
1335
1340
1345
50
75
100
125
150
Mongolia (Siberian pine) NE Tibet (Juniper)Tien Shan (Juniper )
Years
Ind
ex
ed
rin
g w
idth
(1
00
= m
ea
n 1
15
0-1
34
9)
Dendrochronologies from Central Asia bring this episode into sharper focus:
1250
1255
1260
1265
1270
1275
1280
1285
1290
1295
1300
1305
1310
1315
1320
1325
1330
1335
1340
1345
50
75
100
125
150
Mongolia (Siberian pine) NE Tibet (Juniper)Tien Shan (Juniper )
Years
Ind
ex
ed
rin
g w
idth
(1
00
= m
ea
n 1
15
0-1
34
9)
Dendrochronologies from Central Asia bring this episode into sharper focus:
1250
1255
1260
1265
1270
1275
1280
1285
1290
1295
1300
1305
1310
1315
1320
1325
1330
1335
1340
1345
50
75
100
125
150
Mongolia (Siberian pine) NE Tibet (Juniper)Tien Shan (Juniper ) Mean chronology
Years
Ind
ex
ed
rin
g w
idth
(1
00
= m
ea
n 1
15
0-1
34
9)
Ecological stress in Arid Central Asia, generated by increased climatic instability, appears to have ignited the epizootic that led to the Black Death.
1250
1255
1260
1265
1270
1275
1280
1285
1290
1295
1300
1305
1310
1315
1320
1325
1330
1335
1340
1345
50
75
100
125
150Mongolia (Siberian pine) NE Tibet (Juniper)
Years
Ind
ex
ed
rin
g w
idth
(1
00
= m
ea
n 1
15
0-1
34
9)
DROUGHT DROUGHT DROUGHT
PLUVIAL PLUVIAL
From its source in Qinghai, as aridity eased, plague then spread westwards across desert and mountains to Issyk-Kul in Kirgizia:
W. EuropeChristakos, Olea & Hwa-Lung (2007) c.1½-6 kms per day
Qinghai / Tibet?
Kipchak Khanate / Golden Horde
Messina, Sicily
Issyk-Kul, Kirghizia
1346
1347
1338/9
1290s?
c.40 years2,000 kmsc.1 km per week
c.7 years4,000 kmsc.1½ kms per day
The speed of the Black Death’s spread implies that humans must in some way have been complicit in its dissemination.
From its source in Qinghai, as aridity eased, plague then spread westwards across desert and mountains to Issyk-Kul in Kirgizia:
The Catalan World Atlas, 1375:
“the intensification of over-land caravan movement across Asia that reached its climax under the Mongol empires ..... affected both macro- and micro-parasitic patterns in far-reaching ways”
The World-system of commerce c.1300 according to Janet Abu-Lughod, 1989.
Traders and travellers were material to the relentless westward spread of the pathogen, its vectors and hosts, until the Genoese port of Kaffa in the Crimea was reached in 1346.
“In the same year [1346], God’s punishment struck the people in the eastern lands, in the town Ornach [on the estuary of the R. Don], and in Khastorokan, and in Sarai, and in Bezdeh, and in other towns in those lands; the mortality was great ..... so that they could not bury them” (Benedictow, 2004)
Gabriele de Mussis, Michele da Piazza, Nicephoros Gregoras, Emperor John VI & Ibn al-Wardi: Spring 1346: plague first surfaced in the lands of the Kipchak Khanate of the Golden Horde.
The Black Death - some fresh insights from recent research: 1. The Black Death WAS Yersinia pestis.
2. Its geographical origin was the semi-arid Qinghai-Tibet Plateau in Western China, where its maintenance hosts were wild gerbils and marmots.
3. Its biological re-activation from a dormant enzootic state to a more virulent epizootic state occurred during the closing decades of the 13th century.
4. This vital biological transformation took place under conditions of mounting ecological stress generated by the alternation of drought and pluvial events, as global patterns of atmospheric circulation de-stabilized and changed.
The Black Death - some fresh insights from recent research: 5. Traders and travellers were instrumental
in aiding and abetting plague’s westwardspread across the interior of Eurasia.
6. Genoese mariners performed the same function once plague reached the Black Sea coast and had crossed over and infected commensal rodents (i.e. black rats).
7. In Europe, poverty, over crowding, high levels of commercial activity, war, harvest failure and unusually humid weather conditions combined to ensure that the Black Death’s spread was rapid and its mortality heavy.
8. Further changes in plague’s hosts and vectors may have added momentum and reach to the disease’s spread.
The Black Death - some fresh insights from recent research:
9. The Black Death was the product of a unique conjuncture of biological, climatic and human developments.
The Black Death - some fresh insights from recent research: 10.The fate of medieval Europeans was
intimately bound up with environ-mental developments taking place 6,000 kilometres to the east, in the semi-arid and sparsely populated interior of Central Asia.
EL FIN
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