Guide to Make Sector Studies G-EES-02
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a
Guide to Make Sector Studies
G-EES-02
2 Guía para la Elaboración de Estudios de Sector
Guide to Make Sector Studies
I. Introduction ................................................................................................................... 4
II. Structure of Sector Economic Analysis ................................................. 4
A. General aspects .................................................................................................................................... 5
B. Study of the supply ............................................................................................................................... 6
C. Study of the demand............................................................................................................................. 9
III. Data analysis techniques ............................................................... 10
IV. Sector studies in the Minimum amount and direct contracting procurement processes .............................................................................................. 11
A. Direct contracting .................................................................................................................................. 11
B. Minimum amount .................................................................................................................................. 12
Annex 1 - Statistical notions ....................................................................... 13
I. Sample size ........................................................................................................................................... 13
II. Statistical analysis ................................................................................................................................ 13
A. Average or arithmetic mean .................................................................................................................. 14
B. Median ................................................................................................................................... 14
C. Trimmed mean .......................................................................................................................... 14
D. Sample’s standard deviation................................................................................................................. 15
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III. Graphic analysis ................................................................................................................................... 16
A. Stem and leave graph ........................................................................................................................... 16
B. Histogram .............................................................................................................................................. 17
IV. Information sources ............................................................................................................................. 18
V. Procedure to seek information about Procurement Processes in the SECOP ........... 20
4 Guía para la Elaboración de Estudios de Sector
The purchasing function must be aimed to the satisfaction of the needs of the State Entity and to obtain the highest value for the public money. In consequence, the State Entity must clearly understand and know: (a) what is its need and how can it satisfy it; (b) how and who can supply the goods, works and services that it needs; and (c) the context in which the possible suppliers carry out their activities.
Article 15 of Decree 1510 of 2013 establishes the duty of the State Entities to analyze the sector, namely, the market related to the purpose of the Procurement Process, from a legal, commercial, financial, organizational, technical and Risk analysis perspective. The result of the analysis must be reflected in the studies and prior documents of the Procurement Process. The importance of making this analysis has been stressed in the recommendations that the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) has made to the National Government, which constitute good practices regarding promotion of the competition in public procurement1.
The purpose of this guide is to help the State Entity to comply with this mandate by offering tools to understand the market of such good, work or service that the State Entity intends to acquire, in order to design the Procurement Process with the information required to reach the goals of efficacy, efficiency, economy, promotion of the competition and Risk management. This document contains some general recommendations of Colombia Compra Eficiente, and it must not be utilized in a mechanical manner. The depth of the sector’s study depends of the complexity of the Procurement Process.
The capitalized expressions utilized in this document must be construed with the meaning set forth in Decree 1510 of 2013 and are utilized in singular and in plural as required by the relevant context. The terms that have not been defined below must be construed according to their natural and obvious meaning.
The State Entity, once it is aware of its need and once it has identified the goods, works or services that satisfy it, is capable of defining sector or market to which such goods, works or services belong, and of making the respective analysis. The sector analysis offers tools to establish the context of the Procurement Process, to identify some of the Risks, to determine the enabling requirements and the manner to evaluate the offers.
The scope of the sector study must be proportional to the amount of the Procurement Process, the nature of the purpose of the contract, the type of contract as well as to the Risks ide ntified for the Procurement Process.
1. See http://www.oecd.org/daf/competition/fightingbidrigginginpublicprocurement.htm.
Introduction
Structure of Sector Economic Analysis
5 Guía para la Elaboración de Estudios de Sector
The sector analysis must cover three areas:
A. General aspects
The State Entity must review the general aspects of the market of the good, work or service that are relevant in the Procurement Process. For such purposes, Colombia Compra Eficiente recommends to analyze, among other, the following contexts2, which can have a local, regional, national or international scope, depending of the Procurement Process.
1. Economic: Data analysis of: (i) products included in the sector; (ii) agents who are part of the
sector; (iii) professional and trade associations that take part in the sector; (iv) total sales figures; (v) perspectives of growth, investment and sales; (v) economic variables that affect the sector such as inflation, variation of the SMMLV and the exchange rate; (vi) production and distribution chain; (vii) raw materials required for the production and the variation of the prices; and (viii) dynamics of imports, exports and smuggling, whenever applicable.
2. Technical: The technical and technological conditions of the purpose of the Procurement Process, including state of the innovation and technical development that allows creating new products and market opportunities and the new trends, such as: (i) technological changes, (ii) amplitude of the supply of characteristics of the products; (iii) quality specifications; (iv) special conditions for the delivery (cold chains, surveillance systems, etc.) and (v) delivery times.
3. Regulatory: The State Entity must identify the regulation applicable to the subject of the Procurement Process, both the one that influences the market of the good, work or service, and the one that regulates the activity of the suppliers and buyers in particular manner, including market, price, environmental, tax and any other type of regulations, as well as the recent amendments to such regulations and the impact on the application thereof. It must also study if there are Colombian Technical Standards, international agreements or standards applicable and regulatory or oversight authorities in the sector.
4. Other: The State Entity must establish other context such environmental, social, political or other if it is convenient and relevant to know the sector.
2. Information extracted from: http://www.business.govt.nz/procurement/pdf-library/agencies/GUIDEMasteringProcurement.pdf, http://www.scotland. gov.uk/Topics/Government/Procurement/buyer-information/spdlowlevel/routetwotoolkit/developstrategyroutetwo/profilingthecommodity/ supplymarketanalysis, https://acquisition.gov/sevensteps/library/afmarket-research.pdf, http://faculty.babson.edu/gwin/indstudy/.
A. General aspects. B. Study of the supply. C. Study of the demand.
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B. Study of the supply
In the study of the supply, the State Entity must answer, among other, the following questions:
1. Who sells? The State Entity must identify the suppliers in the market of the good, work or service, as well as its main characteristics such as business’ size, location, schemes of production and financial behavior. This identification allows determining possible Risks of collusion3 and also establishing the suppliers’ negotiation power, which is related to the number of competitors present in the market and the shares of each one in the market. The fewer suppliers there are, the greater the bargaining power each one of them has. This can be translated into higher prices or less favorable conditions for the State Entity.
To identify the possible suppliers it is recommendable to utilize databases and information from the Enterprises’ Information and Report System –SIREM–4; the databases of the Commerce Chambers and of the trade associations; and any other business or sector information system available in the market. These databases allow to know the financial information of the sector and of some of its members in particular, so the State Entity can determine the enabling requirements and other conditions of the Procurement Process, taking into account the general conditions of the sector.
2. What is the dynamics of production, distribution and delivery of goods, works or services? When the Entity determines the participants in the production, commercialization and distribution of the goods it can improve the efficiency and the economy of the acquisitions, reducing in some cases the number of intermediaries.
The State Entity must know the process of production, distribution and delivery of the goods, works or services, the costs associated to those processes, which are the manners of distribution and delivery of goods or supply of the service.
Likewise, the State Entity must understand the dynamics of the market regarding the chain of production or distribution or supply of the good, work or service, as well as to identify which and how is the process of the good, work or service until reaching the end user, the role played by the potential bidders in that chain and the life cycle and the of the good, work or service. For example, the supplier that the State Entity requires may be supplier of raw materials, manufacturer, importer, assembler, distributor wholesaler, retailer, intermediary, transporter, etc.
The analysis must include the prices, the historic behavior and the perspectives of changes thereof.
3. Illicit agreement between vendors to increase the prices or to reduce the quality of goods, works or services that the State Entity intends to acquire through a competitive process. Superintendence of Industry and Trade of Colombia. Practical Guide – Combating the collusion in tender processes. Available at: http:// www.sic.gov.co/recursos_user/documentos/articulos/2010/Guia_Contratacion.pdf.
4. This system contains the information provided by the companies of the sector real that are subject to the inspection, oversight and control of the Superintendence of Companies.
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Some variables that can influence the prices are the variation of the IPC5, variation of the exchange rate and the change in the prices of raw materials.
The information required to make this analysis can be found in different sources, such as those mentioned in the preceding section. Likewise, the prior, open, direct and regulated communication with the possible suppliers is fundamental to put into context the economic sector analysis and to understand the financial data offered by the information systems. If the information required is not available in the information systems, the suppliers themselves can be the source of such data.
Colombia Compra Eficiente recommends the State Entity to design and implement scenarios and procedures for the request of information to the potential bidders6. This recommendation seeks that the State Entity defines which information, when, by what means and to whom will it be requested. This definition must include the procedure to do it, such as forms of request of quotes or of information that allow the uniform participation of the greater possible number of interested persons. It is recommendable to leave evidence of the dates of the meetings, the attendants and the subjects discussed with suppliers and associations.
The State Entity does not have to seek the financial data of all the bidders that offer the good, work or service. A sub – set thereof suffices, namely a representative sample that allows visualizing the characteristics of the sector.
Colombia Compra Eficiente suggests to analyze the logistics associated to the purpose of the contract. In other words, the coordination and planning of different activities for a good, work or service to reach the final user in the adequate time and manner. This includes the activities of the areas of procurement, production, transport, storage, distribution and final disposal. Below we list some important logistics concepts that may be included in the sector’s study:
5. Consumer Price Index utilized to measure the inflation and it is provided by the DANE. See http://www.dane.gov.co/index.php/indices- of-prices-and-costos/indice-of-prices-al-consumidor-ipc.
6. Request for Information (Request for Information –RFI -).
Production: Colombia Compra Eficiente recommends to the State Entity to know the production methods of production of the potential suppliers. On the one hand, many suppliers manage their production only by order, which means that they have little flexibility in the case of an addition to a planned order. This situation means that if the State Entity is buying a product that requires a constant supply, it must make orders with a margin of support inventory. On the contrary, in case that the supplier manages a constant production or an inventory of end product available to supply at all times, the State Entity must know the cost of acquiring products outside a planned order as it is likely that these will be higher. In addition, it is important to determine if there are opportunities to obtain volume discounts or to add demand with other State Entities to obtain better conditions.
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Distribution: The State Entity must learn how lies the transportation work and which are the delivery times managed by the potential suppliers. To know the cost of transporting and delivering a product is decisive at the time of determining the prudent frequency of the orders or the possibility of contracting the transportation service in an independent manner. In addition, the delivery time can provide information about the possibility of making last – minute or urgent orders and, if such is the case, to know the extra costs that this situation may involve. In case that the delivery times are not flexible, depending of the product, the State Entity can have higher inventories to prevent the risk of stock shortages that could be critical in goods that require a constant supply, such as stationery. On the other hand, there are two possibilities regarding the distribution of a good: (i) the State Entity hires a supplier that has the capacity to supply and distribute the product in all the places required and manages the orders and inventory of each place; or (ii) the State Entity has one or several storage centers in which the supplier delivers the order and the State Entity carries out the distribution of the product to each division or area, utilizing its own transportation or hiring the service with another supplier. The sector’s study must allow answering the following questions, which can be a guideline to determine the distribution scheme:
(i) Are suppliers capable of distributing the product in all the places required?
(ii) What is the cost difference between contracting the transportation and distribution with the
same supplier of the product or to contract the transportation in an independent manner?
(iii) Which are the delivery times to the different places in which the product must be supplied?
(iv) Can the product be stored or does it require special conditions to conserve its properties?
(v) Are the savings of buying in bulk and storing (in case that the State Entity had a storage center) higher than the costs of distributing to several places?
Inventory: It is the quantity of raw material, product in process or end product that there is at any given time. The purchase of the supply of goods requires a study of the manner in which the possible bidders store and handle their inventories for the purposes of the analysis of the Risk of shortages and to determine if the State Entity requires a minimum inventory of its own. For these purposes, the State Entity must take into account: (i) the accuracy of its estimation of its own demand of the good and the demand of third parties; (ii) the existence of inventories in the facilities of the supplier and the time for their delivery to the State Entity; (iii) the effects of the Risk of shortage; (iv) the cost and the Risks associated to maintaining the stock; and (v) the availability of an adequate space for the inventory in the service of the State Entity and the value associated to it.
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C. Study of the demand
The State Entity must collect in the study of the demand the information that allows it to answer the following questions:
1. How has the State Entity acquired this good, work or service in the past? The State Entity must analyze the behavior of its prior acquisitions of the good, work or service, taking into account:
2. How do the State Entities and the private companies acquire this good, work or service? In the demand study, Colombia Compra Eficiente suggests to identify and analyze the Procurement Processes of State Entities that have acquired, in the past, the good, work or service to extract the best practices and information pertinent for the Procurement Process. For these purposes, the Public Procurement Electronic System –SECOP– offers the possibility of consulting Procurement Processes of other State Entities in which the State Entity can observe, among other aspects, the technical specifications , enabling requirements,
Modality of selection of the contractor
Purpose of the contract
Quantity of the good, work or service.
Authorizations, permits and licenses required for its execution, and, when the contract includes design and construction, the technical documents for the development of the project.
Amount of the contract and terms of payment
Number of contracts signed for such purposes and terms thereof.
Budget against which the contracts have been executed (investment or operation) and whether or not future fiscal periods have been committed.
Bidders that have taken part in the selection processes and contractors.
Behavior of the contractors and imposition of sanctions.
Payment conditions established in the contracts.
Timetables.
Delivery times and places agreed.
Guarantees demanded and losses.
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method for the evaluation of offers and the contracting modalities utilized7.
This information can be seen in the bid terms, addendums, observations to the terms, evaluation minutes, contracts and other Documents of the Process. However, for the consultation and use of the information, the State Entity must not copy, in a mechanical manner, the information of other Procurement Processes and it must take into account that there is a good practice when in the Procurement Process there was competition of offers, the contractor complied with the purpose of the contract in a timely manner and in the terms agreed and the citizens received the good, work or service.
The historic data of the demand is important to define certain issues regarding the particular knowledge of the need to contract, supplier and acquisition price. For these purposes, the State Entity must: (a) have clear the quantities that it needs to buy, in case that it is an amount, or to know if the historic approaches evidence that it has been necessary to make additions to serve the demand or if, on the contrary, the demand has been over - estimated; and (b) to know the manner in which the suppliers have been chosen in case that the good, work or service has been contracted in a prior manner. The State Entity must query about the performance of these suppliers and question whether or not there are several suppliers that could satisfy their need and serve the demand in the place in which it is required. Lastly, the State Entity must know if the price that it has paid for the good, work or service in different moments has been constant taking into account the inflation, variation of the exchange rate or the prices of the raw materials. The analysis of this historic data provides to the State Entity tools to make better purchase decisions.
Likewise, Colombia Compra Eficiente recommends to the State Entity to review how does the private sector entities contract the same goods, works and services in comparable conditions of volume, quantity and quality.
The information collected in the study of the supply and the demand must serve to the State Entity to structure the Procurement Process in a correct manner. An important source of consultation is the same information that the State Entity has obtained in its Procurement Processes. For example, if the State Entity in the analysis of the demand has historic data of the purchases made, it can estimate the adequate quantity of use and the minimum inventory requirements. For this, it is important to introduce guidelines so the historic data is analyzed and considered at the time of deciding what and how much to buy, when to place the orders, among other aspects.
To the extent that it is possible to have enough data, Colombia Compra Eficiente recommends making a numerical and/or graphic analysis to understand the behavior thereof. For this, it is necessary to understand some basic notions that allow characterizing a set of data. For example, to study the financial data of the sector, the State Entity can utilize some statistical concepts and tools defined in Annex 1 hereof. These tools
7. See Annex 1 to this document.
Data analysis techniques
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can be utilized, among other aspects, to determine indicators of enabling requirements, as shown in the Manual to determine and verify the enabling requirements (see http://www.colombiacompra.gov.co/manuales).
Regarding the historic data, Colombia Compra Eficiente recommends use graphs of the behavior of data through time, for example behavior of quantity or price to analyze if the data have behaviors of a positive or negative tendency, namely if they increase or decreases through time, or if they have a behavior that is repeated in a period of time, namely if they evidence seasonality.
When a State Entity has made an economic sector analysis, it can employ the information in other Procurement Processes of the same sector, similar in purpose, amount, Risks and conditions.
The sector analysis is part of the planning of the Procurement Process and materializes the principles of planning, of responsibility, and transparency set forth in Law 80 of 1993.
The sector’s study is necessary in the Procurement Processes. The modality for the selection of the Procurement Process is not relevant to determine whether or not the sector analysis is appropriate. Colombia Compra Eficiente makes some recommendations to carry out sector studies in Procurement Processes for the modalities of direct contracting and minimum amount.
A. Direct contracting
In the direct contracting, the sector analysis must take into account the purpose of the Procurement Process, particularly the conditions of the contract, such as the terms and manners of delivery and of payment. The sector analysis must allow the State Entity to support its decision of making a direct contracting, the election of the supplier and the manner in which the contract is agreed from the viewpoint of the efficiency, efficacy and economy.
The State Entity must include in the Process’ Documents, either in the prior studies or in the supporting data thereof, the aspects the subject matter of article 15 of Decree 1510 of 2013. In a professional services’ contract, the sector analysis depends of the object of the contract and of the conditions of suitability and experience that lead to contract with the individual or legal entity that is in conditions of complying with said purpose. For example, regarding the hiring of a lawyer to handle some court case, the State Entity must make a reflection about the need to contract the service and the conditions of the Procurement Processes that has been carried out in the past to contract this type of services, taking into account terms, amount and terms of payment.
Sector studies in the Minimum amount and direct contracting procurement processes
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Following the example, in a Procurement Process for the judicial representation of a State Entity, it will not be necessary that the State Entity makes a study of the supply and the demand of legal services’ sector of with details about types, prices, qualities and quantities of the supply and the demand. What it needs to do is a reflection taking the following aspects into account:
B. Minimum amount
In the minimum amount Procurement Processes the scope of the sector study must be proportional to the value of the Procurement Process, the nature of the object to be contracted, the type of contract and to the Risks identified for the Procurement Process.
In this selection modality it is not necessary to make an extensive study of the general conditions of the potential bidders, to define their participation in the industrial GDP or to study the structure of the financial statements of the possible suppliers and of the industry. In these cases, it is necessary to review the particular conditions of other similar Procurement Processes, to gather sufficient information of prices, quality, conditions and terms of delivery with other clients of the supplier, public or private, request information from, the suppliers, verify the suitability thereof and include that information in the Process’ Documents, always with the purpose of making an adequate business decision of and to guarantee the satisfaction of the need of the State Entity, complying with the objectives of efficiency, efficacy and economy and seeking to promote competition.
If in spite of being a minimum amount Procurement Process, the purpose to be contracted is very important for the State Entity (for example, software that is critical for its mission activity ) or if the Risks demand a special treatment as in the case in which in the market the terms of delivery usually agreed for the good, work or service usually long, the sector analysis must be more complex and add more general and
1. Do the State Entity requires a law firm or an individual with professional card? This reflection must cover
legal and organizational aspects.
2. What is the experience required for someone who provides the service according to the complexity of the case? This reflection must cover commercial, technical and of Risk analysis’ documents.
3. Has the State Entity recently contracted the professional services required? What was the amount of the contract and its conditions? Was the need of the State Entity satisfied with the previous Procurement Processes? This reflection must cover legal, commercial, financial, organizational, technical and Risk analysis issues.
4. The type of remuneration recommended for the provision of services the subject of the Procurement Process and the reason why the State Entity chooses that type of remuneration from the viewpoint of the economy, the efficiency and the efficacy of the Procurement Process. Namely, if the remuneration is: (i) a fixed monthly amount; (ii) a price per hour worked and the service provider invoices the number of hours worked; (iii) an amount for the hour worked and a ceiling of the number of monthly or total hours; (iv) percentage of the award; or (v) a combination of the foregoing.
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detailed information of the potential suppliers and the sector.
The following notions are useful to analyze a set of numeric data or samples8.
I. Sample size
The number of data that makes up the sample has a significant incidence on the quality of the analysis of the information. Regularly, as the State Entity collects more information, there is a greater confidence on the conclusions of the analysis because the sample comprises a better representation of the behavior of the variable the subject of study, for example the liquidity or the indebtedness of a sector. When the sample comprises a few data, the conclusions of the behavior of the variable are deficient because the sector is not represented enough and there is the possibility that the data available is shown as typical data, when in reality they are not.
Example: In a given Procurement Process a State Entity obtains information of 3 potential suppliers, which have an indebtedness ratio of 60%, 42% and 44% respectively. This information allows to think that a typical range of indebtedness for this type of suppliers is of between 40% and 50%. The State Entity continues with the search of data, and obtains information about other 15 suppliers. This allows it to determine that the average level of indebtedness for these suppliers is close to 60% and that the initial data of 42% and 44% correspond to atypical data9.
Taking the foregoing into account, this annex recommends that the construction of the sample takes into account the greater amount of data available with the purpose of making a rigorous analysis for which the State Entity must resort to the information systems and also to the communication with the possible suppliers.
II. Statistical analysis
To understand the behavior of the data that makeup the sample, there are central tendency and dispersion measures that allow making inferences10 about their behavior:
8. Orellana, L. (2001, Marzo). Descriptive Statistics. [online]. Available at: http://www.dm.uba.ar/materias/estadistica_Q/2011/1/modulo%20descriptiva.pdf
9. An atypical data is the data that is numerically distant from the majority of the data of the sample.
10. As from a statistical population to utilize the inductive method to reach conclusions about the behavior of the universe to which the statistic population belongs.
Annex 1: Statistical notions
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A. Average or arithmetic mean
It is the most frequently used central tendency measure. To calculate the arithmetic mean or average of a set of observations, it is necessary to add all the figures and then divide the result by the total number of observations. This measure is very sensitive to the atypical data, as just one of the data can affect in a significant manner the calculation thereof. For example, if the State Entity has information about the liquidity ratio of 4 suppliers, 1,4; 2,2; 1,9; and 6 respectively, the liquidity average of these 4 suppliers is 2,9. This is because there is a supplier with a high level of liquidity which, in this case, represents an atypical behavior in respect of its sector and who will affect the average indicator. In this case, it is not enough to study the average because, as it can be seen, the average does not represent the behavior of the majority of the suppliers.
B. Median
It is a statistical measure that represents the value that has the central position in a sample. To figure it out, the data must be ordered from lower to higher and identify the data that occupies the central position. If the sample size is even, the median is the average of the two central figures. If the sample size is odd, the median corresponds to the figure located in the middle of the sample. Unlike the mean, the median is not affected by the presence of atypical data. However, being a measure of location or position, the recommend is to have it as a supplementary variable, which can provide useful information if it is compared with the mean.
C. Trimmed mean
It is a statistic that utilizes the average but removing a certain percentage of extreme data. To calculate it, the data must be ordered from lower to higher and exclude the smallest n x α and the largest n x α data, where n is the sample size and α is the proportion of data to be purged. The last step is to calculate the average of the remaining data, which will represent the trimmed mean.
To define α, the State Entity that is carrying out the procedure must define the valor depending of the sample size and of the distortion evidenced in the data. By selecting α=0 the mean is obtained and by selecting α=0,5=50% the median is obtained, which means that α must be between those two figures. When this procedure is done, it is very common to use α=0,1=10% which excludes 20% of the data. To analyze the distortion of the data, the recommendation is to plot, as it will be explained below, or to make the respective analysis of the media and median.
The trimmed mean is a good approximation when there are atypical data. The atypical data of indicators may represent either a very good behavior or a very bad behavior of the indicator in respect to the majority of the data. However, at the time of purging the data, the State Entity must take the precaution of purging the data that represent the indicator of suppliers who, in spite of evidencing an atypical behavior in respect to the rest,
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would be capable of performing the contract.
Section VI of the Manual to determine and verify the enabling requirements (see http://www.colombiacompra.gov.co/manuales) has an example of the calculation of the trimmed mean.
D. Sample’s standard deviation
The Sample’s standard deviation is a measure of dispersion that measures the average distance of the data of a sample in respect to its mean. The higher the deviation, the higher the dispersion of the data of the sample versus its mean or average.
Sample’s standard deviation = sample’s variance
The variance of a sample of observations X1, X2, ..., Xn, the average of which X̅ and n is equal to the sample size, is defined as:
For example, with the same data utilized in the example in the notion of average over the liquidity ratio of 4 suppliers, this is the Sample’s standard deviation.
sample’s variance
Where n is equal to 4 and the average of the sample X̅ is equal to 2,9. Sample’s standard deviation
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Colombia Compra Eficiente recommends to utilize dispersion measures such as the standard deviation together with the mean or trimmed mean to characterize the financial variables, to define the numeric indicators of financial and organizational capacity if the knowledge of the behavior of the data so allows. Microsoft Excel has capabilities that allow to calculate, in an easy manner, all of these statistical measures.
III. Graphic analysis
The goal of the graphic analysis is to analyze the general behavior of the data and to identify its main characteristics. The person making the analysis must resort to the graphic analysis before making other types of analysis as the visual aid allows to reach conclusions regarding the behavior of the data available. Colombia Compra Eficiente presents below some types of graphs that the State Entities may utilize in the analysis:
A. Stem and leave graph
This technique allows to observe the shape or distribution of a set of numerical data and its use is recommendable when the State Entity does not have a large quantity of data. It is useful to analyze ratios, as in the case of the enabling requirements of financial and organizational capacity. The stem and leave graph is built by separating the digits of each value of the sample in two groups which are called stem and leave. The ordinary procedure for the construction of this type of graphs is as follows:
The analysis of the graph allows to know (i) the distribution of the data of the sample, (ii) its level of symmetry, (iii) the maximum and minimum ranges, (iv) in which ranges most of the data is concentrated, namely where there is a greater frequency observing the height of the stems; (v) the quantity and
Divide each one of the figures of the sample:
Stem: Depends of the analyst to define each component, the stem can be made up by the first digit or by the first two dos digits depending of the magnitude of the data.
Leave: Depends of the analyst to define each component, the leave can be made up by the second digit or by the first decimal if such is the case.
Enumerate the stems in a vertical manner on an ascending order and plot a vertical line to the right of these figures.
Add to each stem the respective leaves in a horizontal direction, from lower to higher. At this point, the analyst must decide what to do with the digit after the leave, if it gets truncated or if it is rounded, It is recommendable to truncate because in most cases this level of specificity does not add value at the time of observing the behavior of the data. The stems that are not accompanied by leaves, namely where the leave is a zero, must also be considered and be included in the graph.
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magnitude of figures that drift away from the common behavior of the sample (atypical data), among other characteristics.
In section VI of the Manual to determine and verify the enabling requirements (see http://www.colombiacompra. gov.co/manuales) an example of this graph can be seen.
B. Histogram
It is a graphic representation of the sample in the shape of bars, in where the height of each one of them represents the frequency of data. The analysis of the graph allows to infer the behavior of the sample. The conclusions are similar to those stated in the preceding graph. Below there is an example as from the following data of the level of indebtedness.
Level of indebtedness
26%
29%
47%
49%
50%
52%
53%
55%
56%
60%
61%
68%
80%
92%
98%
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The Microsoft Excel tool is very useful for the development of the statistical analysis and graph, taking into account that it has the functionalities of the concepts discussed above. Following this path in Excel, it is possible to plot Histograms: File/ Options/ Complements/ Analysis Tools / Go / Select the option/ In the option Data a new window will appear called “Data Analysis” and in there it is possible to select the option Histogram.
IV. Information sources
Below there is a list of information sources that are useful to carry out the sector studies:
Economic Context
ANDI (Encuesta of opinión industrial): www.andi.gov.co Banco de la República: www.banrep.gov.co Chambers of Commerce Superintendence of Industry and Trade: www.sic.gov.co
Confecámaras: www.confecamaras.org.co National Planning Departamento –DNP–: www.dnp.gov.co Asobancaria (economics and finance): www.asobancaria.com
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Subject Suggested
Sources
Technical Context
- Information Technologies and Communications Ministry: www.mintic.gov.co
- general Information : www.losavancestecnologicos.com - ComputerWorld Magazine (technology): www.computerworld.com
Regulatory Context
- Presidency of the Republic: www.presidencia.gov.co - Superintendence Offices - Ministries - General Archive of the Nation: www.archivogeneral.gov.co - Synthesis: www.colombiacompra.gov.co
Environmental
Context
- Ministry of the Environment: www.minenvironmente.gov.co - Ministry of Minas and Energy: www.minminas.gov.co - Colombian Agricultural and Livestock Institute–ICA–: www.ica.gov.co
Study of the supply
- SECOP: www.colombiacompra.gov.co - SIREM (financial data; for the use of this tool check the user manual):
www.supersociedades.gov.co - Ministry of Trade, Industry and Tourism (Trade and industry
associations Directory ): www.mincit.gov.co - Superintendence Offices - Sector Offices
Study of the demand
- SECOP: www.colombiacompra.gov.co - Web sites of the State Entities - Procurement managers of other State Entities - Guide for the codification of goods and services according to the U. N standard
products and services code (UNSPSC) – Colombia Compra Eficiente: www.colombiacompra.gov.co/manuales
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V. Procedure to seek information about Procurement Processes in the SECOP
Step 1: Access the website of Colombia Compra Eficiente www.colombiacompra.gov.co and click on the green button - Suppliers.
Step 2: The options to search the contracts signed appear. Click on Search for Procurement Processes.
If you have the number of the process, click on the button of “search by process number”. The number of process is a consecutive used by the SECOP to identify the Procurement Processes. It has three parts.
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The first two digits, correspond to the year in which the State Entity created in the SECOP the Procurement Process; the next two digits correspond to the of selection modality used; and lastly, the final number refers to the consecutive automatically generated by the System. This number can be consulted for each Procurement Process in the search bar of the internet search engine of your choice. It has the following structure XX-XX-XXXXXXX.
Step 3: Complete the information requested in the boxes. You must fill at least two search criteria to proceed. Click on search.
Step 4: The system presents the different contracts related to the product or service that it is seeking. Click on the in number of the process in which you are interested (mainly search the Procurement Processes the status of which is entered into).
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Step 5: In the upper part you will find the information of the Procurement Process that you wish to know. In the lower part you will see the display of all the documents that accompanied the process. You can find the following Process’ Documents:
Call Notice Market Study Prior studies Technical data sheets Bid terms Addenda Observations Verification Documents (legal, financial, technical)
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