New Forecast Technologies for Disaster Prevention and Mitigation

JMA

Takayuki MATSUMURA (Forecast Department,

JMA)

C： Asia Air Survey co., ltd

New Forecast Technologies for New Forecast Technologies for Disaster Prevention and MitigationDisaster Prevention and Mitigation

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To protect life and property from natural disasters such as floods, landslides, debris flows, storms, etc.

Missions of JMA

Development of a Numerical Weather Prediction system

Accurate prediction of timing and location of severe weather events Accurate prediction of typhoon tracks

Based on physical lows Beyond several hours

Development of a Nowcast system

Accurate prediction of timing and location of precipitation Based on a heuristic method Up to a few hours

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Super-computer

PredictionPrecipitation,Temperature,

Winds ....

What is Numerical Weather Prediction ?

Schematic illustration of Numerical Model

Observation

Initial Condition

Numerical Model Physical laws

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Current Operational Numerical Models

• Typhoon model• Horizontal Resolution: 24 km• Updates: 4 times a day

• Global model• Horizontal Resolution: 60 km• Updates: 2 times a day

Regional model Horizontal

Resolution: 20 km Updates: 2 times a day

Mesoscale model Horizontal

Resolution: 10 km Updates: 4 times a day

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Initial ConditionNumerical Model

Requirements for Numerical Weather Prediction

Development of modelsAdvanced mesoscale model

fully-compressible non-hydrostatic equation, cloud microphysics

Use of various observational data

Satellites, Wind profiler, Aircraft, Doppler radar, ....

Improved Performance

Development of data assimilation

Advanced assimilation method

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Impact of the New Model

New Model Old Model

Rain Rate at the surface resulting from Baiu front at 15 JST, 19 July 2003.

Observation

Rain Rate (mm hr-1)

The new model shows better performance as compared to the old model.

Mesoscale Model Forecast of Heavy Rainfall

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Observation Data Used in the Analysis

A high-resolution model requires dense observations with sufficient accuracy.

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Performance of the Mesoscale Model Precipitation Forecast for Rain-rate at 10 mm / 3 hr

Accuracy of precipitation forecasts is represented by an objective index indicating the minimum (0) to the maximum (1).

For

ecas

t Ski

ll

new satellit

e data

a new model

a new assimilation method

domestic wind profile

r data

new satellit

e data

automated aircraft data

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Impact of Horizontal Resolution of the Model

10-km1.5-km

Three-hourly accumulated rainfall for 09 – 12 JST. Maximum rainfall amounts attained over 60 mm/hour .

Observed Rain Rate

As the horizontal resolution increases, the rain band is well represented.

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0

200

400

600

800

1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004Year

Erro

r [km

]24 48 72

Typhoon Positional Error of Typhoon Model Forecasts

FT = 72 hours

FT = 48 hours

FT = 24 hours

Forecast errors of typhoon center positions are reduced, especially for longer forecast hours, resulting from model developments.

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Nowcasting of PrecipitationNowcastVery Short Range Forecast

1-hour rainfall res.=5km, issued every 30 minup to 6 hours

10-minutes rainfallres.=1km, issued every 10minup to 1 hour

nowcast represents localized high rain rates

Disaster prevention and mitigation•Urban flood caused by a rapidly developing rain cloud

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Future Plan

Development of a high-resolution model Horizontal resolution: 2 ~ 5 km

Further improvement of Typhoon forecast with new technologiesMulti-scale analysis of echo motion for nowcasting

Improve the forecasts of severe meteorological phenomena that threaten life and property.

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A role of JMA is to provide accurate forecasts for prevention and mitigation of natural disasters.

Enhancement of the numerical weather prediction system and nowcast system is an important task.

Summary

• Development of an advanced mesoscale model

• Use of various observational data

• Development of an advanced data assimilation method

• Improvements in the typhoon track forecasts

• Development of Very-Short-Range Precipitation forecasts including Nowcasting

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ありがとうございました。

Thank you.Merci.

謝謝

Gracias. Спасибо

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