New England North West - What's happening in the housing ...  · Web viewThe New England North West Region covers twelve local government areas, including growing regional centres,

New England North West – What’s Happening in the Housing Market?

The New England North West Region covers twelve local government areas, including growing regional centres, significant agricultural production, mining, regional tourism and areas of high environmental value . Housing market conditions and rent and purchase affordability varies significantly within the region, particularly between the larger centres, mining communities and the rest of the region. There are declining numbers of affordable rental properties despite the increase in lower income rental households across the region and consequently there are higher numbers of lower income rental households in housing stress.

New England North West Region – What’s Happening in the Housing Market?Housing Market - Rental

Rents Looking at all residential rentals combined together, there have been strong

increases in median rents in the New England North West Region for over a decade. Over the last 12 month period to June 2019, there has been more variation, with some LGAs continuing to experience price increases, some holding steady and others dropping. The graph below shows the increase in median rents for all dwellings in each New England North West LGA from June 1990 to June 2019.

www.facs.nsw.gov.au

At June 2019, median rents for all dwellings in New England North West ranged

from $335 per week in Gunnedah to $220 per week in Walcha. Generally the LGAs with significant mining activity and major regional centres

have higher median rents (in addition to Gunnedah, both Narrabri and Tamworth Regional had median rents of $320 per week and Armidale Regional $300).

The table below shows the change in median rents for (combined) all dwellings between June 2009 and June 2019 in each of the New England North West Region LGAs. Note that over this time frame Guyra and Armidale Dumaresq amalgamated to become Armidale Regional. The data given for June 2009 is actually for Armidale Dumaresq (and does not include data for Guyra) while the data for 2019 is for the amalgamated LGA.

Median Rent – All Dwellings

Area June 2009 June 2019 change % changeArmidale Regional 220 300 80 36.4Glen Innes Severn 165 233 68 41.2Gunnedah 195 335 140 71.8Gwydir 140 218 78 55.7Inverell 190 290 100 52.6Liverpool Plains 188 249 61 32.4Moree Plains 160 250 90 56.3Narrabri 183 320 137 74.9Tamworth Regional 225 320 95 42.2Tenterfield 170 230 60 35.3Uralla 210 285 75 35.7Walcha 115 220 105 91.3

www.facs.nsw.gov.au

Over this time frame the highest increases in median rents occurred in Walcha (91.3%) and the mining communities of Narrabri (74.9%) and Gunnedah (71.8%) – showing the impact of the influx of mining and related workers to those LGAs.

Vacancy Rate A vacancy rate of 3% is understood to represent a balance between supply and

demand in the rental market. According to REINSW data, vacancy rates were below 3% for New England for some of the period from 2006 through to 2019 - indicating intermittent shortages of private rental stock. A vacancy rate below 2% indicates a chronic shortage and there have been occasional periods when the vacancy rate in New England has been below 2%..

At December 2019 the vacancy rate in New England was 3.3%, up from 2.4% in November 2019. This compares with 1.5% in Northern Rivers and 1.8% in Orana at December 2019.

Affordable Rental The general trend across Sydney and NSW has been for a decline in the

proportion of rental stock which is affordable for very low, low and moderate income earners.

At September 2017, every New England North West LGA (excepting Walcha and Moree Plains), had a lower proportion of affordable rental for very low income households than was the case in June 2001.

www.facs.nsw.gov.au

None of the New England North West LGAs had a lower proportion of affordable rental for very low income renters than the Rest of NSW average of 23.1%. While the proportion of affordable rental for very low income households in the Rest of NSW declined between 2016 and 2017, it increased in most of the New England North West LGAs.

Gunnedah had the lowest proportion of affordable rental for very low income renters with 28.1%, followed by Tamworth Regional with 31.1%. Armidale Regional (40.1%), Uralla (41.7%), Inverell (46.0%) and Narrabri (48.1%) all had less than half of new bonds lodged that were affordable for very low income rental households. While above the Rest of NSW average, these are still low proportions of affordable rental.

The graph below shows the change in the proportion of private rental accommodation affordable to very low income households in the New England North West LGAs and Rest of NSW between 2001 and 2017.

The proportion of rental affordable for low income households has also declined in the region, with a majority of LGAs having a lower proportion of affordable housing for low income households in 2017 than in 2001. There has been some improvement in the proportion of affordable rental over the last couple of years in most LGAs as the graph below shows.

www.facs.nsw.gov.au

No New England North West LGA had a lower proportion of affordable rental for low income households than the Rest of NSW average of 54.1%. Gunnedah had the lowest proportion of affordable rental for low income households with 69.6% (down from 97.5% in 2001).

Rental Stress At the 2016 Census, the proportion of very low income households in rental

stress in New England North West ranged between 90% in Armidale Regional and 60% in Gwydir. Armidale Regional and Tamworth Regional (89%) had equivalent or higher proportions of very low income households in rental stress than the average of 89% for the Rest of NSW.

There were no LGAs in New England North West with a higher proportion of low income households in rental stress than the average of 62% for the Rest of NSW. Armidale Regional had the highest proportion with 51%, followed by Tamworth Regional with 50%. These are still very high proportions of low income renters in stress.

At the 2016 Census there were 5,288 very low and low income renters in housing stress across the region, up from 4,597 in 2011. This represents a 15.0% increase from 2011 to 2016. The total population increase across the Region over the same period was 3.0%.

The graph below shows the proportion of very low, low and moderate income households in rental stress in the New England North West LGAs and the Rest of NSW at the 2016 Census.

www.facs.nsw.gov.au

The table below shows that there has been a significant increase in the number of very low and low income households in rental stress in the majority of LGAs in the New England North West Region between 2011 and 2016.

Area

2011 very low and low income

households in rental stress

2016 very low and low

income households

in rental stress

change % change

Armidale Regional 992 1052 60 6.1Glen Innes Severn 238 299 61 25.7Gunnedah 306 328 22 7.2Gwydir 67 162 95 141.4Inverell 435 564 129 29.6Liverpool Plains 169 176 7 4.3Moree Plains 200 243 43 21.4Narrabri 206 276 70 34.0Tamworth Regional 1,675 1826 151 9.0Tenterfield 173 198 25 14.3Uralla 111 129 18 16.5Walcha 25 36 11 42.6

New England North West 4,597 5288 691 15.0

www.facs.nsw.gov.au

This strong growth in the number of very low and low income households in rental stress demonstrates the need for provision of targeted affordable housing. The largest increases have occurred in Tamworth Regional, Inverell, Gwydir, Narrabri, Glen Innes Severn and Armidale Regional, although every LGA has experienced an increase as demonstrated in the graph below.

The table below shows the number and proportion of tenants in the New England North West Region who are in the private rental market, are in receipt of Commonwealth Rent Assistance (CRA), and despite this additional income support, are in housing stress.

Armidale Regional (50.1%) has a much higher proportion of CRA recipients in housing stress than the average for the Rest of NSW of 35.1%. Tamworth Regional has the next highest proportion with 31.5%. The New England North West Region has an average of 31.4% of CRA recipients in housing stress.

Area Total CRA CRA % CRA in

www.facs.nsw.gov.au

recipients 2016

recipients in Housing

Stress 2016Stress

Armidale Regional 3340 1675 50.1Glen Innes Severn 860 167 19.4Gunnedah 950 256 26.9Gwydir 300 47 15.7Inverell 1274 314 24.6Liverpool Plains 540 95 17.6Moree Plains 1012 200 19.8Narrabri 843 205 24.3Tamworth Regional 4859 1532 31.5Tenterfield 522 115 22.0Uralla 318 57 17.9Walcha 145 29 20.0Rest of NSW 201580 70760 35.1New England North West 14963 4692 31.4

Loss of Affordable Housing Stock DCJ has calculated the number of new bonds lodged with the Rental Bond Board

that were affordable to low income earners in the New England North West Region in 2006, 2010, 2013 and 2017. The region experienced a significant decline in affordable bonds lodged, and consequently loss of affordable housing between 2006 and 2017 – with 2,485 fewer affordable bonds lodged – representing a loss of 62% of affordable stock.

The table below shows the number of bonds lodged that were affordable to low income households (including very low income households) in 2006, 2010, 2013 and 2017 in each of the New England North West LGAs as well as the total for the Region.

It is clear from the table that Armidale Regional (-564), Tamworth Regional (-446), Moree Plains (-277), Gunnedah (-248), Narrabri (-234), Glen Innes Severn (-194) and Tenterfield (-115) have suffered the largest numeric losses. Yet proportionately, Gwydir has experienced the largest decline (77%), followed by Tenterfield (76%), Walcha and Narrabri (74%).

No. of affordable rental properties for low income households

www.facs.nsw.gov.au

2006 2010 2013 2017 2006-2017 Change % Change

Armidale Regional 831 580 522 267 -564 -68%Glen Innes Severn 289 226 214 95 -194 -67%Gunnedah 342 218 201 94 -248 -73%Gwydir 81 67 71 19 -62 -77%Inverell 334 239 220 161 -173 -52%Liverpool Plains 145 141 119 56 -89 -61%Moree Plains 412 343 230 135 -277 -67%Narrabri 315 244 166 81 -234 -74%Tamworth Regional 967 686 573 521 -446 -46%Tenterfield 151 150 155 36 -115 -76%Uralla 72 77 80 21 -51 -71%Walcha 43 57 53 11 -32 -74%

New England North West 3,982 3,028 2,604 1,49

7 -2485 -62%

These are significant losses and together with the increase in the number of low income rental households and lower income rental households in housing stress, demonstrates the need for provision of affordable rental housing.

Housing Market - Purchase

Sales Price Dwelling prices have experienced relatively strong growth from 2003 to around

2010 in most LGAs in New England North West. Since then growth has been more variable. Over the decade from March 2009 to March 2019 median dwelling prices in the region have increased by between 9.7% (Gwydir) and 60.3% (Uralla).

The following graph shows the long term median sales price trend for all dwellings in each of the New England North West LGAs.

www.facs.nsw.gov.au

At March 2019, the median sales price for houses in New England North West ranged between $169,000 in Gwydir and $360,000 in Armidale Regional.

The table below gives the change in median sales price for houses between March 2009 and March 2019 for New England North West LGAs. There were insufficient sales in Walcha to calculate a median in March 2019 and therefore to calculate the price increase from 2009.

Median Sales Price – Houses

Non Strata DwellingsMarch

2009

March

2019 Change% Change

Armidale Regional 250 360 110 44.0Glen Innes Severn 170 203 33 19.4Gunnedah 253 315 62 24.5Gwydir 154 169 15 9.7Inverell 190 255 65 34.2Liverpool Plains 165 223 58 35.2Moree Plains 165 193 28 17.0Narrabri 204 250 46 22.5Tamworth Regional 240 335 95 39.6Tenterfield 180 240 60 33.3Uralla 214 343 129 60.3Walcha 183

www.facs.nsw.gov.au

Note there were insufficient sales of strata properties in all New England North West LGAs to determine the median sales price for units.

Purchase Affordability In New England North West, purchase affordability for very low income earners

has declined in the majority of LGAs since 2001. In the Rest of NSW there has been some improvement in purchase affordability since 2015, largely due to record low interest rates. This pattern has held in New England North West with the exception of Narrabri, Tenterfield and Uralla, where purchase affordability for very low income households continued to decline.

At September 2017, the proportion of housing affordable for purchase by very low income households on average in the Rest of NSW was 9.0%. In New England North West, Tamworth Regional had the lowest proportion affordable for purchase with 12.5%, followed by Armidale Regional with 13.2% and Uralla with 14.3%.

The graph below shows purchase affordability for very low income households in New England North West and the Rest of NSW between 2001 and 2017.

Again the majority of New England North West LGAs had a lower proportion of housing affordable for purchase by low income households in 2017 than in 2001. Almost all have seen some improvement in purchase affordability since 2015, the exception being Tenterfield.

The average proportion of properties affordable for purchase by low income households in the Rest of NSW at September 2017 was 24.7%. In New England North West, Armidale Regional had the lowest proportion of housing affordable

www.facs.nsw.gov.au

for purchase by low income households with 39.5%, followed by Gunnedah with 42.6% and Tamworth Regional with 43.6%.

The graph below shows the change in purchase affordability for low income households in New England North West, compared to the Rest of NSW, between 2001 and 2017.

Additional DataAdditional data on rents and sale prices, including both current and historical data, is available from the Rent and Sales Report on the Housing NSW website at:

http://www.housing.nsw.gov.au/About+Us/Reports+Plans+and+Papers/Rent+and+Sales+Reports/

More detailed housing data and tables used in this Snapshot are available from the Local Government Housing Kit Database on the Housing NSW website at:

http://www.housing.nsw.gov.au/Centre+For+Affordable+Housing/NSW+Local+Government+Housing+Kit/Local+Government+Housing+Kit+Database/

More information on vacancy rates is available from the Real Estate Institute of NSW website (see their media releases on vacancy rates):

https://www.reinsw.com.au/

www.facs.nsw.gov.au