New Approaches to Reducing Absolute Energy Consumption: Sufficiency and Progressive Efficiency Summary of work conducted on behalf of eceee and EPA ENERGY.

New Approaches to Reducing Absolute Energy Consumption: Sufficiency and Progressive EfficiencySummary of work conducted on behalf of eceee and EPA ENERGY STAR with support from ECF

Chris Calwell, Senior Research Fellow, AuthorNils Borg, eceee Executive Director, Co-Presenter

EnR working group, Madrid, 24-25 September 2009

About eceee

• Europe’s largest energy-efficiency NGO

• Membership-based association – members are individuals and organisations. Approx 60 organisations, 150 personal members

• Several products– Web site (access to proceedings, topical overviews)– newsletter– Seminars– Biennial Summer Study in south of France– Policy briefs, position papers, briefings, studies

• Active in several fora– Eco-design consultation forum– Bucharest Forum (previously Amsterdam Forum)– EPBD recast work

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EU climate change progress (1990-2006)

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Role of efficiency in addressing climate change in the U.S.

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Total primary energy consumptions for U.S. buildings

Trends in EU Housing Efficiency, 1990 - 2004

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004

Per

centa

ge

Chan

ge

Stock of Dwellings

Energy Consumption per Dwelling

Lighting and Electrical Appliances Consumption per Dwelling

Number of Dwellings per 1000 People

Total Residential Energy Consumption

Space Heating Consumption per Dwelling

EU houses getting more efficient, but total home energy use keeps rising

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Why?

• Our success metrics often aim to cut relative consumption or energy used per unit of service delivered, not absolute consumption – Miles per gallon, l/100 km, g CO2/km (Vehicles)

– HERS Rating (Energy use relative to “standard” home of identical size)– Lumens/watt (Lighting)– CFM/watt (Fans)– Watts/cubic foot, kWh/liter (Refrigerators)– Watts/square inch (Televisions)

As a result, we slow the rate of growth but don’t turn consumption downward, because more and more products are sold each year with ever-higher performance.

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Result: Products get more efficient but still use more energy

All gains in U.S. vehicle efficiency since 1987 traded for performance.

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Traditional energy specifications

As products get larger or more powerful, they are allowed to consume proportionally more power.

Power Use (watts)

Per

form

ance

or

Siz

e

Y=MX (linear specification)

Y=MX (more stringent linear specification)

Power Use (watts)

Per

form

ance

or

Siz

e

Y=MX (linear specification)

Y=MX (more stringent linear specification)

Performance or Size

Pow

er U

se (

wat

ts)

Y=MX+B (more stringent linear specification)

Y=MX+B (linear specification)

Performance or Size

Pow

er U

se (

wat

ts)

Y=MX+B (more stringent linear specification)

Y=MX+B (linear specification)

In this example, the higher line (blue) is more stringent. Products need to fall above the line to qualify for the

specification.

In this example, the lower line (blue) is more stringent. Products need to fall below the line to qualify for the

specification.

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Changes In New EU Refrigerators Over Time

-80%

-60%

-40%

-20%

0%

20%

40%

60%

1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

Unit Sales

Average Refrigerator Volume

Annual Energy Use From One Year's Sales

Efficiency (Annual kWh per Liter)

Changes in new EU refrigerators

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Refrigerators: sobering realities

• Average energy use per cubic foot or liter of volume in new refrigerators has fallen dramatically: about 75% in EU and U.S. since mid-1970s

• But, 22% of U.S. homes now contain a second fridge

• 156 million U.S. fridges now in use, each consuming an average of 968 kwh/year (about twice as much as a new fridge)

• Global sales are 82 million units/year, rising by 4%/year

• Global refrigerator energy use likely higher now than at any point in history

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A different approach: sufficiency

• Sufficiency challenges the notion that we can consume our way to a stable climate

• Argues for absolute upper bounds on consumption and efficiency specifications that plateau, no matter how much larger or more powerful products become

• Creating progressive efficiency specifications that approach such sufficiency limits and then stop increasing is a powerful way to achieve absolute reductions in greenhouse gas emissions

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Progressive efficiency in televisions

Electric utilities in the U.S. are currently promoting and paying rebates on TVs (blue line) that use at least 15% less electricity than ENERGY STAR’s v.3 specification.

ENERGY STAR just announced a v.4 spec (purple line) that is more linear and stringent. It will take effect in May 2010.

ENERGY STAR’s v.5 spec (red line) allows no greater power use once TVs reach 50 inches. It will take effect in May 2012. This is one of the first progressive efficiency specifications ever adopted for a consumer product.

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Governments could pursue a variety of strategies towards sufficiency

• Establish continuous, progressive efficiency specifications for new products that are automatically updated

• Mandatory categorical labeling for all energy-using and energy-related consumer products (where applicable)

• Shift most utility rebates to super-efficient products• Fund increasing share of rebates from fees charged on the

least efficient products (bonus malus)• Use incentives to drive return/recycling of existing product

when new one is sold• Use education and financial incentives to change user

behavior• Cap or tax emissions of greenhouse gases on a schedule that

becomes more stringent over time• Adopt progressively tiered electric and natural gas rates

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Some steps have been taken

• California per-capita limit for electricity use (but this is offset by rapid population growth)

• ENERGY STAR TV specification v.5 sets a cap for energy use of TVs above 50 inches (but more and more TVs are in use)

• In the area of buildings: (net) zero energy buildings.

New ideas are taking root:• Zero- or even energy-producing appliances (ask Hans-Paul!)

• Thoughts about UK personal carbon allowances

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About Ecos

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Thank you!

Chris Calwell (report author)[email protected]

(970) 259-6801 x301

Nils BorgExecutive Director, eceee

[email protected]