1 January 30, 2008 For Private Circulation Only - Sebi Registration No : INB 010996539 August 7, 2009 For Private Circulation Only - Sebi Registration No : INB 010996539 1 Sterlite Industries Initiating Coverage Gearing for sterling growth Sterlite Industries is a Vedanta-group company, with diversified operations in copper, aluminium, zinc and power, is well placed to weather the ongoing downturn. The company has embarked upon capacity expansions across commodities in the fast-growing Indian market. Through a subsidiary, Sterlite Energy, the company is getting into the merchant power business in a power-deficit India. At Rs629 the stock is trading at an EV/EBITDA of 5.7x and a P/E of 10.3x FY2011E estimates. Due to its diversity in different businesses, we value Sterlite on an SOTP basis and have arrived at a Target Price of Rs630. We are positive on the overall business prospects of Sterlite, but owing to the recent run-up in its price, we initiate coverage on the stock with a Neutral recommendation. Multi-fold Expansions across Commodities: Sterlite has been aggressively expanding capacities in almost all its divisions. Aluminium capacities will be doubled at Bharat Aluminium Company Ltd (BALCO) by September 2011E, to 0.72mtpa from 0.35mtpa currently, and the company is also setting-up aluminium capacities of 1.75mtpa in Vedanta Aluminium Ltd (VAL) by FY2013E. After these expansions by the end of FY2013E, the total aluminium capacity will be 2.5mtpa, almost 7x the current capacity, making Vedanta one of the top aluminium producers in the world. Through Hindustan Zinc (HZL), zinc-lead capacity is to be raised by 40% to 1.07mtpa by mid-2010E, making HZL the largest integrated zinc producer in the world. Foray into the Power Business - the next Growth Driver: Sterlite, through its wholly-owned subsidiary, Sterlite Energy, is foraying into the merchant-power business in a power-deficit Indian market. This will provide it with the flexibility to either use its power for captive purposes, or to sell the energy as merchant power. We believe that the power business will contribute 15% of the Consolidated Revenues and 21.3% of the EBITDA in FY2012E, after the commissioning of the entire 2,400MW project. Healthy Balance Sheet to support Expansions: We believe that Sterlite's balance sheet is healthy enough to feed its expansions. Hindustan Zinc, a 64.9% subsidiary, is a cash-cow with a Cash balance of US $2bn at the end of FY2009. Sterlite has a Net Cash balance of US $1.6bn and the Vedanta parent holds another US $5bn. The recent ADS issue of US $1.6bn would fund the company's power expansions and other expansions. Hence, despite the huge capex plans of US $7.9bn, Sterlite's debt-equity ratio of 0.3x in FY2011E is in a comfortable position. Shareholding Pattern (%) Promoters 56.9 MF / Banks / Indian FIs 11.7 FII / NRIs / OCBs 20.0 Indian Public / Others 11.4 BSE Code 500900 NSE Code STER Reuters Code STRL.BO Bloomberg Code STLT@IN BSE Sensex 15,160 Nifty 4,481 Abs. 3m 1yr 3yrs Sensex (%) 25.1 0.3 40.2 STL (%) 21.6 2.4 69.2 Stock Info NEUTRAL Price Rs629 Target Price - Investment Period - Pawan Burde Tel: 022 - 4040 3800 Ext: 348 E-mail: [email protected]Laxmikant Waghmare Tel: 022 - 4040 3800 Ext: 313 E-mail: [email protected]Sector Base Metals Market Cap (Rs cr) 44,566 Beta 1.4 52 Week High / Low 739/165 Avg Daily Volume 1005837 Face Value (Rs) 2 Key Financials (Consolidated) Source: Company, Angel Research Y/E March (Rs cr) FY2008 FY2009 FY2010E FY2011E Net Sales 24,705 21,144 19,657 26,183 % chg 1.3 (14.4) (7.0) 33.2 Net Profit 4,399 3,540 3,162 5,142 % chg (0.5) (19.5) (10.7) 62.6 FDEPS (Rs) 62.6 49.3 37.7 61.2 OPM (%) 31.8 22.2 21.4 29.6 P/E (x) 10.0 12.8 16.7 10.3 P/BV (x) 2.8 1.8 1.6 1.3 RoE (%) 27.3 14.4 9.8 12.5 RoCE (%) 17.2 10.1 7.4 9.5 EV/Sales (x) 1.9 2.2 2.4 1.7 EV/EBITDA (x) 6.0 9.7 11.1 5.7
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1January 30, 2008 For Private Circulation Only - Sebi Registration No : INB 010996539August 7, 2009 For Private Circulation Only - Sebi Registration No : INB 010996539 1
Sterlite IndustriesInitiating Coverage
Gearing for sterling growthSterlite Industries is a Vedanta-group company, with diversified operations in copper,aluminium, zinc and power, is well placed to weather the ongoing downturn. The companyhas embarked upon capacity expansions across commodities in the fast-growing Indianmarket. Through a subsidiary, Sterlite Energy, the company is getting into the merchantpower business in a power-deficit India. At Rs629 the stock is trading at an EV/EBITDA of5.7x and a P/E of 10.3x FY2011E estimates. Due to its diversity in different businesses,we value Sterlite on an SOTP basis and have arrived at a Target Price of Rs630. We arepositive on the overall business prospects of Sterlite, but owing to the recent run-up in itsprice, we initiate coverage on the stock with a Neutral recommendation.
Multi-fold Expansions across Commodities: Sterlite has been aggressively expandingcapacities in almost all its divisions. Aluminium capacities will be doubled at BharatAluminium Company Ltd (BALCO) by September 2011E, to 0.72mtpa from 0.35mtpa currently,and the company is also setting-up aluminium capacities of 1.75mtpa in Vedanta AluminiumLtd (VAL) by FY2013E. After these expansions by the end of FY2013E, the total aluminiumcapacity will be 2.5mtpa, almost 7x the current capacity, making Vedanta one of the topaluminium producers in the world. Through Hindustan Zinc (HZL), zinc-lead capacity is to beraised by 40% to 1.07mtpa by mid-2010E, making HZL the largest integrated zinc producer inthe world.
Foray into the Power Business - the next Growth Driver: Sterlite, through itswholly-owned subsidiary, Sterlite Energy, is foraying into the merchant-power business in apower-deficit Indian market. This will provide it with the flexibility to either use its power forcaptive purposes, or to sell the energy as merchant power. We believe that the power businesswill contribute 15% of the Consolidated Revenues and 21.3% of the EBITDA in FY2012E,after the commissioning of the entire 2,400MW project.
Healthy Balance Sheet to support Expansions: We believe that Sterlite's balance sheetis healthy enough to feed its expansions. Hindustan Zinc, a 64.9% subsidiary, is a cash-cowwith a Cash balance of US $2bn at the end of FY2009. Sterlite has a Net Cash balance ofUS $1.6bn and the Vedanta parent holds another US $5bn. The recent ADS issue ofUS $1.6bn would fund the company's power expansions and other expansions. Hence, despitethe huge capex plans of US $7.9bn, Sterlite's debt-equity ratio of 0.3x in FY2011E is in acomfortable position.
2January 30, 2008 For Private Circulation Only - Sebi Registration No : INB 010996539August 7, 2009 For Private Circulation Only - Sebi Registration No : INB 010996539 2
Sterlite Industries
Base Metals
Company Background
Sterlite Industries, part of the London-based Vedanta group, is a diversified metals and miningcompany, with operations in copper, aluminium, zinc and power. Sterlite operates in the aluminiumbusiness through a 51% subsidiary, BALCO, which the Vedanta group had acquired from theIndian government in 2001. Also, to expand its aluminium capacities, the parent company Vedantais setting up a 5mtpa alumina refinery and a 1.75mtpa aluminium smelting unit in Vedanta AluminiumLtd (VAL), in which Sterlite owns a 29.5% stake. Sterlite has a presence in copper through itsstandalone operations at Tuticorin, with a copper smelting capacity of 0.4mtpa. Hindustan Zinc,which is a 64.5% subsidiary of Sterlite, operates high-quality zinc assets, with a current zinc-leadcapacity of 0.7mtpa, which would be raised to 1.07mtpa by FY2010E. Moreover, to gain a presencein the merchant-power business in India, Sterlite is also setting up a 2,400MW power projectthrough its 100% subsidiary, Sterlite Energy.
Sterlite derives its maximum revenues from the copper business, with Sterlite Standalonecontributing almost 55% of the consolidated revenues in FY2009, followed by Hindustan Zinc at27% and BALCO at 19%. However, the zinc business, which is considered as a cash cow forSterlite, contributes the maximum in the consolidated EBITDA, due to its very low cost of operations.Notably, HZL contributed almost 57% to the consolidated EBITDA in FY2009.
Sterlite is a diversified metalsand mining company, withoperations in copper,aluminium, zinc and power
3January 30, 2008 For Private Circulation Only - Sebi Registration No : INB 010996539August 7, 2009 For Private Circulation Only - Sebi Registration No : INB 010996539 3
Sterlite, through its standalone company, operates copper smelters at Tuticorin, Tamil Nadu, witha smelting capacity of 0.4mtpa. It is to be noted that Sterlite is not an integrated copper producer,but operates custom copper smelters, and, hence, its profitability is dependent on treatment andrefining charges, and on Tc/Rc margins. However, with superior smelting technology, Sterlite isamong the most efficient copper smelters in the world.
Source: Company, Angel Research
Exhibit 3: Sterlite - Copper BusinessMtpa Tuticorin Silvasa Total
Smelting (Anode) 0.40 0.00 0.40
Refinery (Cathode) 0.21 0.20 0.40
Copper Rod 0.09 0.15 0.24
Sulphuric Acid 1.30 0.00 1.30
Phosphoric Acid 0.18 0.00 0.18
Captive Power Plant (MW) 46.5 0.00 46.5
Additionally, the company owns the Mt. Lyell copper mine in Tasmania, Australia, which providesaround 10% of Sterlite's copper-concentrate requirements. Sterlite had acquired the Copper Minesof Tasmania (CMT) in 1999 and, since the acquisition, its capacity has increased from 2.0mtpa to2.6mtpa.
Sterlite 55%Balco 19%
HZL 27%
Sterlite Balco HZL
Sterlite25%
Balco 18%
HZL 57%
Sterlite, through its standalonecompany, operates coppersmelters with a smeltingcapacity of 0.4mtpa
4January 30, 2008 For Private Circulation Only - Sebi Registration No : INB 010996539August 7, 2009 For Private Circulation Only - Sebi Registration No : INB 010996539 4
Sterlite Industries
Base Metals
BALCO: The Third-largest Aluminium player in India
Sterlite had established its presence in the Indian Aluminium industry through the acquisition of a51% stake in Bharat Aluminium Company Ltd (BALCO), from the Indian government in 2001.BALCO is an integrated aluminium company with captive bauxite mines, an alumina refinery,aluminium smelting and a captive power plant. BALCO is the third-largest aluminium company inIndia, after Hindalco and Nalco, with a domestic market share of around 22%. Its product linesinclude Aluminium ingots, wire rods and value-added products like aluminium rolled products, witha revenue contribution of 50%, 30% and 20%, respectively, in total aluminium revenues.
The company's operations are located in Korba, Chhattisgarh, and it currently operates twoaluminium smelters, BALCO I and BALCO II, with a combined capacity of 0.345mtpa (end-FY2009),and an alumina refinery with a capacity of 0.2mtpa. The company also has a captive power plantwith a capacity of 810MW, which is not only sufficient to feed its smelter, but provides surpluspower to sell to the power grid.
Hindustan Zinc (HZL) is the largest and only integrated zinc company in India, with a domesticmarket share of around 85%. It is also one of the lowest cost producers of zinc, with some of thebest quality mines.
HZL is a fully-integrated zinc company having captive zinc mines, namely the Rampura AguchaMine, Zawar Mines, Rajpura Dariba Mines and the Sindesar Khurd Mine. All of these mines arelocated in Rajasthan, with total reserves of around 80mn tonnes and an annual mining capacity of7.1mn tonnes. The Rampura Agucha mine is the biggest mine of HZL and meets almost 90% of itsconcentrate requirement. It is also one of the five largest mines in the world, with a higher zincgrade of 13%. This provides HZL with the biggest advantage in the global zinc market, and helpsit to be the lowest cost producer in the world.
HZL's smelters are situated at Chanderiya, Debari and Visakhapatnam, with a combined zinccapacity of 0.67mtpa and a lead capacity of 85,000 tonnes, at the end of FY2009. The companyalso has a captive power capacity of 341.2MW, which has been expanded from 192.4MW inFY2007.
BALCO is the third-largestaluminium company in India,after Hindalco and Nalco
Hindustan Zinc is the largestand only integrated zinccompany in India, with adomestic market share ofaround 85%
5January 30, 2008 For Private Circulation Only - Sebi Registration No : INB 010996539August 7, 2009 For Private Circulation Only - Sebi Registration No : INB 010996539 5
Sterlite Industries
Base Metals
Source: Company, Angel Research
Exhibit 5: Business Model - FY2009Mining Smelting- Zinc/Lead Captive PowerRampura Agucha Mine Chanderiya smelting Chanderiya(Rajasthan) (Rajasthan) (Rajasthan)Reserves: 63.5mtpa Zinc - 5,25,000mtpa 234MW (Coal-based)Capacity: 5.0mtpa Lead - 85,000mtpaZinc Grade (%): 13.0
Total Total TotalReserves: 79.71 Zinc: 6,69,000 341.2Capacity: 7.1 Lead: 85,000
HZL: Segment-wise Performance
HZL also produces sulphuric acid and silver, as these are by-products of zinc and lead mining,and of the smelting process. However, most of HZL's revenue (around 70%) comes from zincingots, while 25% comes from lead and zinc-lead concentrate sales. The rest of the revenue iscomes from by-products and other sales.
Source: Company, Angel Research
Exhibit 6: HZL - Segment-wise Revenues - FY2009
Zinc Ingots68%
Zinc-LeadConcentrate
16%
Lead Ingots9%
SulphuricAcid3%
Silver2%
Others2%
6January 30, 2008 For Private Circulation Only - Sebi Registration No : INB 010996539August 7, 2009 For Private Circulation Only - Sebi Registration No : INB 010996539 6
Sterlite Industries
Base Metals
Industry Outlook
Aluminium
Aluminium - the weakest base metal
The global aluminium market is expected to trade weak throughout 2009, as the demand continuesto be sluggish. The demand for aluminium has dropped significantly, owing to a reduced off-takefrom the construction, household and auto sectors worldwide. In 2008, global aluminium productiongrew by 3.4% to 39.4mn tonnes, as against the 12.4% growth achieved in 2007. The mutedgrowth in production was driven by a fall in demand for the metal globally, resulting in a sharpcorrection in aluminium prices, taking them below the marginal cost of production. This eventuallyresulted in a curtailment of production across the globe, as 40-50% of Aluminum smelters wererunning into losses. So far, around 7mn tonnes of production cuts have been announced, whichare equivalent to 18% of global production.
We expect that global aluminium production will decline by 7.5% to 36.5mn tonnes (39.4mn tonnes)in 2009E, as the cost of production at the current prices is still unviable for many smelters and asthe sluggish demand outlook will continue to persist for a while. Also, a piling-up of the inventory atthe LME to a multi-year high (since 1990) will stall any ramping-up of operations. However, with aneasing of inventory pressures and an expected improvement in demand, global aluminiumproduction is expected to increase by 4.5% to 38.1mn tonnes in 2010E.
Consumption continues to witness downward pressures
Marred by a drastic fall in demand from major consuming nations like China, USA and Europe,global aluminium demand has declined by 2.2% to 36.9mn tonnes in 2008. The fall in demand hadbeen significant during 2HCY2008, due to a substantial fall in demand from major consumingsectors like automobiles and infrastructure. However, massive stimulus packages announced bythe major economies, in the beginning of 2009, have managed to restore confidence in the metal,as demand has since picked up globally. Even though the demand for aluminium appears to beimproving, it will still be significantly lower than 2008 levels. We expect the demand for aluminium
In 2008, global aluminiumproduction grew by 3.4% to39.4mn tonnes, as against the12.4% growth achieved in 2007
Global aluminium demand hasdeclined by 2.2% to 36.9mntonnes in 2008
7January 30, 2008 For Private Circulation Only - Sebi Registration No : INB 010996539August 7, 2009 For Private Circulation Only - Sebi Registration No : INB 010996539 7
Sterlite Industries
Base Metals
to decline by 6% to 34.7mn tonnes in 2009E. However, consumption is expected to pick-up in2010E, on an increased off-take, particularly from infrastructure projects linked to stimulus programs;we are estimating a 5% growth in demand in 2010E.
In the absence of any significant revival in demand and with surplus capacities, the worldaluminium market is expected to be surplus in 2009E and 2010E. We expect the globalaluminium surplus to be at 1.8mn tonnes and 1.7mn tonnes in 2009E and 2010E, respectively.
We expect the globalaluminium surplus to be at1.8mn tonnes and 1.7mntonnes in 2009E and 2010E,respectively
Source: Abare, Angel Research; * Estimate for FY2010E; #Estimate for FY2011E
8January 30, 2008 For Private Circulation Only - Sebi Registration No : INB 010996539August 7, 2009 For Private Circulation Only - Sebi Registration No : INB 010996539 8
Sterlite Industries
Base Metals
Aluminium Price Outlook
Prices recover on Chinese demand
LME Aluminium prices have recovered by more than 45% in the last couple of months, and arecurrently hovering in the range of US $1,800/tonne, since hitting a bottom of US $1,300/tonneduring February 2009. However, prices are still trading 50% lower than the highs witnessed duringJuly 2008.
Source: Bloomberg, Angel Reseach
Exhibit 11: Chinese Aluminium Import Trend
0
80
160
240
320
400
Jan-04 Feb-05 Mar-06 Apr-07 May-08 Jun-09
'000 tonnes
The recent upturn in aluminium prices is largely driven by a restocking by the Chinese StateReserve Bureau (SRB), buying from Chinese Grid operators and from some regional governments,to spur its domestic industry, which is ridden with losses. This has resulted in increasing Chineseimports, and has eventually resulted in a recovery in aluminium prices. Additionally, thesupply-side tightness, owing to production cuts, contributed to the uptick in aluminium prices.
Source: Abare, Angel Reseach
Exhibit 10: World Aluminium Surplus/(Deficit) Trend
(1,000)
(500)
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009E 2010E
’000 tonnes
LME Aluminium prices haverecovered by more than 45%in the last couple of month
9January 30, 2008 For Private Circulation Only - Sebi Registration No : INB 010996539August 7, 2009 For Private Circulation Only - Sebi Registration No : INB 010996539 9
Sterlite Industries
Base Metals
However, the massive inventory overhang will maintain a check on prices
Aluminium inventory levels at the LME have jumped manyfold in recent times, as the real demandhas been weak owing to the slowdown in the global economy. The daily average inventory levels,which used to be around 0.8mn tonnes till July 2008, are now hovering at a multi-year high of4.4mn tonnes. In our view, such a huge inventory pile-up is going to have a negative effect onaluminum prices, as the demand is expected to remain weak and is expected to decline by 6% in2009E. In addition to this, the recent upsurge in aluminium prices has led to production beingrestarted by many smelters, which resulted in additional supply coming into the market, thusworsening the demand-supply scenario globally and exerting pressure on prices.
Source: Bloomberg, Angel Reseach
Exhibit 12: LME Aluminium Prices and Inventory Trends
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
Jan-01 Jun-02 Nov-03 Apr-05 Sep-06 Feb-08 Jul-09
mn tonnesUS $/tonne
Inventory (RHS)LME Prices (LHS)
Therefore, owing to the weak demand for aluminium and the expected surplus through 2009E and2010E, we do not expect prices to jump significantly for the rest of 2009, and expect the metal totrade sideways, at around its current levels. We believe that average LME aluminium prices will beat US $1,600/tonne in FY2010E, lower by 37% over their 2008 levels, and expect them to improveby 12.5% yoy to US $1,800/tonne in 2011E.
The daily average inventorylevels, which used to bearound 0.8mn tonnes till July2008, are now hovering at amulti-year high of 4.4mntonnes
We believe that average LMEaluminium prices will be at US$1,600/tonne in FY2010E andat US $1,800/tonne in FY2011E
10January 30, 2008 For Private Circulation Only - Sebi Registration No : INB 010996539August 7, 2009 For Private Circulation Only - Sebi Registration No : INB 010996539 10
Sterlite Industries
Base Metals
The world's zinc-mine output has registered a 7.2% de-growth yoy in the first five months of 2009,to 4.3mn tonnes, and is expected to continue to de-grow, owing to the large number of cutbacks,closures and start delays in Europe, Latin America, China and North America. So far, around0.6mn tonnes of zinc-mine output cuts have been announced, which is 5% of the globalmined-zinc output in 2008.
According to the International Lead and Zinc Study Group's (ILZSG) forecasts, China's zinc-mineoutput is set to decline by 10% in 2009E. The world's zinc-mine production is estimated to de-growby 6% to 11mn tonnes in 2009E, while the production is expected to pick-up in 2010E, on accountof the restoration of production cutbacks and the starting of new capacities. Subsequently, globalmine production is expected to grow by 5% to 11.6mn tonnes in 2010E.
Refined-zinc production set to fall
In 2008, global zinc-smelter production increased by a marginal 2.7% yoy to 11.7mn tonnes, asagainst a 6.6% growth registered in 2007. This lower growth rate came in on account of a numberof closures and production cutbacks in November and December 2008. However, the growth inproduction was supported by a rise in production in China as well as in India, where HindustanZinc commissioned its 0.17mn tonnes zinc refinery at Rampura Agucha during December 2008.We believe that refined metal production will de-grow by 4% yoy to 11.2mn tonnes in 2009E, whileit will grow by 4.5% yoy to 11.7mn tonnes in 2010E. The production is expected to decline onaccount of production cuts announced in Belgium, Brazil, Bulgaria, Japan and Russia. However, asignificant fall in global refined-zinc output will be compensated by an increased output in Indiaand China. As per ILZSG estimates, China's refined-zinc output is expected to grow by 2.2% in2009E.
Source- ILZSG, Angel Research
Exhibit 13: Mined-Zinc Production Trend
(8)
(6)
(4)
(2)
0
2
4
6
8
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009E 2010E
%’000 tonnes
Mine Production (LHS) yoy growth (RHS)
Zinc
The global zinc market continues to be in surplus
The world zinc market is expected to be in surplus through 2009E and 2010E, with huge capacitiesin zinc mining and refining expected to come up, and with demand not keeping pace with supply.In 2008, the world zinc-mine production increased by around 5.3% yoy to 11.7mn tonnes, asagainst a 6.6% growth in 2007. The increase in mine supply was mainly due to higher productionin China, India and Australia, and additional supply from new mines in Bolivia, Peru and Canada.
In 2008, the world zinc-mineproduction increased byaround 5.3% yoy to 11.7mntonnes, as against a 6.6%growth in 2007
In 2008, global zinc-smelterproduction increased by amarginal 2.7% yoy to 11.7mntonnes, as against a 6.6%growth registered in 2007
11January 30, 2008 For Private Circulation Only - Sebi Registration No : INB 010996539August 7, 2009 For Private Circulation Only - Sebi Registration No : INB 010996539 11
The global usage of refined zinc increased by 1.7% in 2008 to 11.5mn tonnes, and maintained asurplus in the market for the year; higher consumption in developing countries like China andIndia drove this increased consumption. However, globally, refined-zinc consumption is expectedto de-grow at 5% in 2009E to 10.9mn tonnes. This de-growth is expected to be mainly driven by afall in consumption in Europe, US and Japan by around 12%, 9%, and 13%, respectively. However,according to the ILZSG, China is expected to register a 4.6% growth in consumption in 2009E,which would support the sharp fall in global consumption. Notably, the drop in world consumptionin 2009 (Jan-May) stood at 10.7%.
We expect the global zinc surplus to increase to 0.29mn tonnes and to 0.36mn tonnes in 2009Eand 2010E, respectively. In 2009, so far, the zinc surplus has been around 0.18mn tonnes, asagainst 0.11mn tonnes during the corresponding period of last year.
Globally, refined-zincconsumption is expected tode-grow at 5% in 2009E to10.9mn tonnes
12January 30, 2008 For Private Circulation Only - Sebi Registration No : INB 010996539August 7, 2009 For Private Circulation Only - Sebi Registration No : INB 010996539 12
Sterlite Industries
Base Metals
Source- ILZSG, LME, Angel Research; * Estimate for FY2010E; #Estimate for FY2011E
China is the key growth driver for the global zinc industry, controlling over one-third of the globalzinc production and consumption. Refined-zinc metal production in China grew by 4.6% in 2008 to3.9mn tonnes, contributing almost 34% to world zinc production. Global zinc consumption wassimilarly led by Chinese consumption, which grew in excess of 11% in 2008 to 4mn tonnes.
However, according to the ILZSG, in 2009E, Chinese demand is forecast to rise by 4.6%,substantially lower than that in 2008.
13January 30, 2008 For Private Circulation Only - Sebi Registration No : INB 010996539August 7, 2009 For Private Circulation Only - Sebi Registration No : INB 010996539 13
Sterlite Industries
Base Metals
China continues to be a Net Importer
During the first six months of 2009, Chinese imports shot up substantially, by almost 600% yoy to4,79,640 tonnes of refined zinc (from 68,553 tonnes during the same period last year). Chineseimports went up substantially owing to restocking by the Chinese SRB to build up its strategicreserves. Its exports also declined by a substantial 86% to 5,848 tonnes of refined zinc, due tohigher domestic prices and tax changes. Hence, China continued to be a net importer of zinc, tothe tune of 4,73,791 tonnes during the first six months of 2009. With strong demand emergingfrom its domestic market, from the automobile and construction sectors, China continues to be anet importer of zinc in 2009.
Source- Bloomberg, Angel Research
Exhibit 19: Chinese Zinc Import-Export Trend
(400)
(200)
0
200
400
600
800
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
'000 tonnes
Exports Imports Net Exports
LME – Zinc prices recover on falling stocks
LME zinc prices in the last couple of months have recovered by more than 40%, led by a restockingby the Chinese SRB to build its strategic reserves. World spot-zinc prices averaged at US $1,880/tonne during 2008, almost 42% lower than the average price of US $3,257/tonne in 2007. Thespot price of zinc is estimated to average lower at US $1,450/tonne on the LME in FY2010E, froman average of US $1,572/tonne in FY2009. Forecasts of lower average zinc prices have mainlybeen on account of increasing world supplies, from the commencement of new mines and refineries.However, prices are expected to recover in FY2011E, and would be higher by 7% yoy to US$1,550/tonne, as demand is expected to pick up due to an improved business outlook.
During the first six months of2009, Chinese imports shot upsubstantially, by almost 600%yoy to 4,79,640 tonnes ofrefined zinc
LME zinc prices in the lastcouple of months haverecovered by more than 40%
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Sterlite Industries
Base Metals
Lead
Lead is also in surplus
Global refined lead production grew by 6.7% yoy to 8.7mn tonnes in 2008. However, lead productionduring January-May 2009 grew by a mere 0.2% to 3.5mn tonnes. According to the ILZSG, anescalation in Chinese lead production was the main driver behind an increase in the globalproduction of refined lead. Additionally, the expansion was spurred on by rises in Russia, the UK,Malaysia and South Korea. Output was also higher in Australia, India and Canada. However,global lead production is expected to de-grow by 0.9% to 8.6mn tonnes in 2009E. Subsequently,production is expected to pickup by 5% in 2010E.
Global demand for refined lead remained flattish and de-grew by 0.3% to 3.45mn tonnes duringJanuary-May 2009. According to the ILZSG, global usage of lead is expected to decline by 1.1% to8.6mn tonnes in 2009E. However, the demand is expected to grow by 4% to 8.9mn tonnes in2010E, driven by a growth in demand for Chinese lead by 5.9% and 9.5% in 2009E and 2010E,respectively.
Global usage of lead isexpected to decline by 1.1% to8.6mn tonnes in 2009E
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Sterlite Industries
Base Metals
Source- ILZSG, Angel Research
Exhibit 22: World Lead Demand/Supply in 2009’000 tonnes Jan-May 2009 Jan-May 2008 yoy %Mine Production 1,468 1,546 (5.0)Metal Production 3,478 3,472 0.2Metal Usage 3,452 3,464 (0.3)Surplus/(Deficit) 26 8 -LME-Lead (US $/t) 1,263 2,755 (54.2)
The world lead market is also expected to remain in surplus through 2009E and 2010E, to the tuneof 39,000 tonnes and 1,26,600 tonnes, respectively.
Source: ILZSG, Angel Research
Exhibit 23: World Lead Surplus/(Deficit) trend
(350)
(300)
(250)
(200)
(150)
(100)
(50)
0
50
100
150
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008E 2009E 2010E
'000 tonnes
16January 30, 2008 For Private Circulation Only - Sebi Registration No : INB 010996539August 7, 2009 For Private Circulation Only - Sebi Registration No : INB 010996539 16
Sterlite Industries
Base Metals
Investment Arguments
Multi-fold expansions across commodities
Sterlite, along with its Parent company, Vedanta Resources PLC, has been aggressively expandingcapacities in almost all its divisions. Aluminium capacities will be doubled at Bharat AluminiumCompany Ltd (BALCO) by September 2011E, to 0.72mtpa from 0.35mtpa currently, and thecompany is also setting-up aluminium capacities of 1.75mtpa in Vedanta Aluminium Ltd (VAL) byFY2013E. After these expansions by the end of FY2013E, the total aluminium capacity will be2.5mtpa, almost 7x the current capacity, making Vedanta one of the top aluminium producers inthe world. Through Hindustan Zinc (HZL), zinc-lead capacity is to be raised to 1.065mtpa (a 40%increase over FY2009 capacity) by mid-2010E, making HZL the largest integrated zinc producerin the world. Additionally, to support the aluminium expansions at BALCO and VAL, Sterlite is alsosetting-up associated captive power plans with capacities of 1,200MW and 1,215MW at BALCOand VAL, respectively.
Sterlite to garner a major chunk of the global aluminium market
Aluminium capacities to be doubled in BALCO
Sterlite is increasing its aluminium capacity at BALCO by almost 0.375mtpa, taking its total aluminiumcapacity to 0.72mtpa by September 2011E. The 0.375mtpa capacity would be added by setting-upthe BALCO III smelter at Korba, with a capacity of 0.325mtpa, and another 50kt capacity additionthrough de-bottlenecking at the same location.
Along with this, the captive power capacity would also be raised by 1,200MW, taking the totalcaptive power capacity to 2,010MW (from the existing 810MW) at the same location. We believethat the additional 1,200MW power plant will help in saving costs and in generating additionalrevenues from the sale of surplus power, as BALCO I has been closed owing to lower aluminiumprices. The BALCO III Project will comprise of one single pot line containing 336 cells, and isexpected to produce its first metal by October 2010E, with the entire new capacity expected to befully commissioned by September 2011E. The captive power plant of 1,200MW capacity will consistof four units of 300 MW each, and will meet the entire power requirement of the new Korbasmelter.
Sterlite has been aggressivelyexpanding capacities inalmost all its divisions
Sterlite is increasing itsaluminium capacity at BALCOby almost 0.375mtpa, taking itstotal aluminium capacity to0.72mtpa by September 2011E
17January 30, 2008 For Private Circulation Only - Sebi Registration No : INB 010996539August 7, 2009 For Private Circulation Only - Sebi Registration No : INB 010996539 17
Sterlite Industries
Base Metals
The estimated capex for the project is estimated at US $1.8bn, to be spent over a period of fouryears. The investment will be funded through a combination of existing cash, internal cash accrualsand external financing.
Sale of surplus power to offset BALCO I closure
Currently, the BALCO I smelter has been closed due to its high cost of production and the prevalentlower LME Aluminium prices. Notably, BALCO I, which is an old technology smelter, has an almost30% higher cost of production as compared to BALCO II, a GAMI technology smelter. In case oflower aluminium prices, BALCO has the flexibility of selling its surplus power on a merchant basis.We believe that the company would benefit from the sale of surplus power in the current weakprice environment and with higher merchant tariffs for power. Also, due to the shutting down ofBALCO I, the cost of production for aluminium has been reduced to US $1,190/tonne during1QFY2010, from US $1,385/tonne in 4QFY2009, and from US $1,642/tonne in 3QFY2009. Themanagement is not planning to re-open BALCO I in the near term, and this would be feasible onlyif aluminium prices rebound significantly.
Vedanta Aluminum - future aluminium major
The Vedanta group is aggressively expanding its aluminium capacities through Vedanta AluminiumLtd (VAL), where Sterlite holds a 29.5% stake. VAL has set up an alumina refinery with a capacityof 1.4mtpa, which is operational currently. The company is also expanding its alumina capacity by0.6mtpa through de-bottlenecking, taking its total capacity to 2mtpa by March 2010E.
The company is also in the process of building three new production streams of 1mtpa each. Thefirst stream of 1mtpa is scheduled to be commissioned by mid-2010E, and all the three streamsare expected to be completed by mid-2011E, increasing the capacity by 3mtpa at Lanjigarh. Afterall the expansions, VAL’s total alumina refining capacity would stand at 5mtpa by FY2012E.Vedanta's existing presence in the region, together with its excellent track record of executingprojects ahead of time and at low capital costs make it ideally placed to lead the development ofthese abundant bauxite and coal reserves.
VAL is setting up aluminarefining capacity of 5mtpa byFY2013E
18January 30, 2008 For Private Circulation Only - Sebi Registration No : INB 010996539August 7, 2009 For Private Circulation Only - Sebi Registration No : INB 010996539 18
Sterlite Industries
Base Metals
Source: Company, Angel Research
Exhibit 25: VAL - Capacity expansionsMTPA Existing Capacity Expanded Time Capex
Capacities additions capacities line (US $mn)Alumina Refinery (Lanjigarh)Lanjigarh I Refinery 1,015 1st stream - 0.7 0.7 4QFY2009 2nd stream - 0.7 1.4 1QFY2010 De-bottlenecking - 0.6 2.0 Mar 2010Lanjigarh II Refinery 1,720 Line I - 1.0 3.0 Mid-2010 All other lines - 2.0 5.0 Jun 2011Aluminium Smelting (Jharsuguda)Jharsuguda I 2,113 Phase I - 0.25 0.25 Jun 2009 Phase II - 0.25 0.5 Mar 2010Jharsuguda II 2,920 Phase I - 0.94 1.44 Sept 2011 Phase II - 0.31 1.75 Sept 2012Captive Power (Lanjigarh) (MW) Phase I - 1,215 1,215 End-2010 Phase II - 1,980 3,195 FY2014
Smelting capacity to be at 1.75mtpa by 2013E
VAL is also setting up an aluminium smelting capacity of 1.75mtpa by FY2013E. A 0.25mtpaaluminium smelter, as part of Jharsuguda I, has already been completed by 1QFY2010, andproduction from the unit has commenced. Phase II, with another 0.25mtpa, in Jharsuguda I, willbe completed by March 2010E, taking the total capacity to 0.5mtpa. A new 1.25mtpa smelter atJharsuguda II is in progress and will be operational by Sept 2012E.
For Lanjigarh and Jharsuguda, the envisaged capex was US $7.7bn, out of which US $3.4bn hasalready been spent as on March 31, 2009. The remaining capex of US $4.3bn will be spent overthe next four years.
Sterlite - among the Top 5 aluminum producers in the world
Sterlite is aggressively expanding its aluminium capacities in BALCO and VAL. After the expansionsin aluminium capacities (as explained in the earlier sections), in both BALCO and VAL, Sterlite'stotal aluminium smelting capacity will reach 2.5mtpa by FY2013E, making it the largest aluminiumproducer in the country and one of the top 5 companies in the world. Also, the captive bauxitemines at Niyamgiri, which are expected to be operational by Mid-2010E, and the captive powercapacities at BALCO and VAL, will make Sterlite one of the lowest-cost producers of aluminium inthe world.
VAL is setting up aluminiumsmelting capacity of 1.75mtpaby FY2013E
Post expansions in Balco andVAL, Sterlite would becomeone of the top five Aluminumproducers in the world
19January 30, 2008 For Private Circulation Only - Sebi Registration No : INB 010996539August 7, 2009 For Private Circulation Only - Sebi Registration No : INB 010996539 19
Sterlite Industries
Base Metals
Captive power to save costs
Power is the major cost component in aluminium manufacturing, and contributes almost 33-35%of the total production costs. One tonne of aluminium generally requires 15,000Kwh of power. VALis planning to set up a captive power plant, with a capacity of 1,215MW, by the end of FY2010E.We believe that post commissioning of the plant, the power cost/unit should come down byRs1-1.5/unit, which will help the company in reducing the overall aluminium costs. The currentcost of production at Vedanta Aluminium is higher at US $1,100-1,200, on account of higheralumina costs and higher power costs (which are at Rs2-2.5/unit). The management has targetedreducing the cost of production to US $900/tonne, with the commissioning of the new power plant,the bauxite mines and the full capacity ramp-up.
Niyamgiri Mines to save alumina costs
Vedanta resources had entered into a joint venture (JV) agreement with the Orissa MiningCorporation to explore the Niyamgiri Bauxite Mines in Orissa's Kalahandi district, which wereallotted to it in 2004. Due to protests by the residents of Orissa over environmental issues, themine could not be developed and has been on hold since the last four years. However, duringDecember 2008, the Supreme Court approved mining at the site.
The Centre had also accorded Stage-I forest clearance in December, 2008, with 32 conditions,besides 16 general stipulations. The company had also deposited Rs121cr with the stategovernment for compensatory forestry, other forest management, and peripheral developmentmeasures. Eventually, the Centre, on April 28, 2009, gave environmental clearance to the miningproject. The management now expects the Niyamgiri mines to become operational from October2009E.
Source: Company, Angel Research
Exhibit 26: Aluminium Capacity ramp-up
0.3 0.3 0.3
0.7 0.7 0.7
0.5 0.5
1.4
1.8
0.3 0.3
0.8
1.2
2.2
2.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
FY2008 FY2009 FY2010E FY2011E FY2012E FY2013E
mn tonnes
Balco VAL Total
VAL is planning to set up acaptive power plant, with acapacity of 1,215MW, by theend of FY2010E
20January 30, 2008 For Private Circulation Only - Sebi Registration No : INB 010996539August 7, 2009 For Private Circulation Only - Sebi Registration No : INB 010996539 20
Sterlite Industries
Base Metals
Cost Target of US $900 to be achieved after Niyamgiri mines begin operations
We believe that the Niyamgiri mines, with estimated reserves of 75mn tonnes (a mine life of 17years) and having some of the best quality bauxite, will put Vedanta in one of the lowest costquartiles for aluminium. Notably, the management has targeted the aluminium cost of production(COP) at US $900/tonne post commissioning of these mines (refining cost at US $250/tonne andsmelting cost at US $650/tonne). With bauxite from Niyamgiri, the alumina cost for VAL is expectedto be at US $100/tonne, as compared to the current cost of US $250-280/tonne, which translatesinto a refining cost of US $250/tonne. Currently, VAL is running its Lanjigarh refinery with bauxitesourced from the market.
HZL targets to be the world's largest integrated zinc-lead company by 2010E
HZL is on the verge of a rapid expansion of its smelting, mining and power capacities, to takeadvantage of the deficit in the Indian zinc market. HZL has increased its zinc smelting capacity atthe Chanderiya smelting complex (Rajasthan) by commissioning a 1,70,000tpa hydro-metallurgicalzinc smelter (Hydro II) in December 2007. Moreover, the zinc smelting capacity has been increasedby 88,000tpa through de-bottlenecking at Chanderiya and Debari in April 2008, taking its total zinccapacity to 0.669mtpa by the end of FY2009. HZL has also expanded its capacity at the RampuraAgucha mine from 3.75mn tonnes to 5mn tonnes.
Along with its zinc capacity, HZL has also enhanced its power capacity from 192.4MW at the endof FY2007, to 341.2MW in FY2009. HZL commissioned its 80MW coal-based captive power plant(CPP) at Chanderiya in 2008. The company had also commissioned 68.8MW wind power capacityin Gujarat and Karnataka, taking its total wind power capacity to 107.2MW at the end of FY2009.
Source: Company, Angel Research
Exhibit 28: Power capacities (FY2008)Location Power Capacity (MW) TypeSamana (Gujarat) 88.8 WindGadag (Karnataka) 18.4 WindChanderiya Smelting Complex 234 CoalTotal 341.2
The management has targetedthe aluminium cost ofproduction at US $900/tonne,post commissioning ofNiyamgiri mines
21January 30, 2008 For Private Circulation Only - Sebi Registration No : INB 010996539August 7, 2009 For Private Circulation Only - Sebi Registration No : INB 010996539 21
Sterlite Industries
Base Metals
In line with the group's philosophy of being a self-reliant producer of power, a captive thermalpower plant, with a capacity of 160MW, will also be set up at Rajpura Dariba, taking its total powercapacity to 518.2MW by 2010E. Due to the expanded power capacity, HZL will be able to source70% of its power requirements from the captive sources.
To support the increased smelting capacities, HZL will also increase its ore production capacity atthe Rampura Agucha mine, from 5mtpa to 6mtpa. Ore production at the Sindesar Khurd mine, thenew mine in HZL's mining portfolio, will also be increased from 0.3mtpa to 1.5mtpa. HZL will alsostart mining activity at the Kayar mine, which will have a production capacity of 0.3mtpa.
The zinc and lead smelters, the 160MW CPP and the Rampura Agucha mine expansion will becompleted by mid-2010E. However, expansions at the Sindesar Khurd and Kayar mines will becompleted in phases, by early 2012E.
The total investment in the above-mentioned projects is estimated at Rs3,600cr, which wouldmostly be funded through internal accruals. This investment includes the cost of the smelters,CPPs, mine development and shaft sinking, and of other infrastructure. The expansion will utilisethe same technology and project management skills that successfully delivered the Chanderiya-IIexpansion project ahead of schedule
After the completion of these projects, HZL will become one of the largest integrated zinc-leadproducers in the world, with a zinc-lead capacity of 1.064mn tonnes by 2010E, an increase ofalmost 115% over FY2007. We expect HZL to benefit from the expansions, as it will be able toreplace imports in the zinc-deficit Indian market, and thus win additional market share.
HZL will become one of thelargest zinc-lead producers inthe world, with a zinc-leadcapacity of 1.064mn tonnes by2010E
22January 30, 2008 For Private Circulation Only - Sebi Registration No : INB 010996539August 7, 2009 For Private Circulation Only - Sebi Registration No : INB 010996539 22
Sterlite Industries
Base Metals
Source: : Company, Angel Research
Exhibit 31: Capacity ramp-up
HZL - one of the lowest-cost producers
HZL is one of the lowest-cost zinc manufacturers in the world, with huge reserves of high-qualitycaptive zinc mines, which meet the entire zinc-concentrate requirements of the company. HZLoperates three underground mines, Sindesar Khurd, Rajpura Dariba and Zawar, and themechanized, open-cast Rampura Agucha mine in Rajasthan. Notably, HZL's cost of zinc productionin FY2009, excluding royalties, stood at US $686/tonne, as against a cost of production of aroundUS $1,100-1,200/tonne for most high-cost manufacturers across the world. The management hastargeted bringing down the cost of production to US $600/tonne, after the commissioning of all theexpansions.
Increasing reserves through aggressive explorations
HZL has been on the verge of extensive explorations to increase the reserves of its zinc mines.Exploration at the Rampura Agucha mine has met with good results. Following extensive explorationprograms and drilling in the last couple of years, reserves at the Rampura Agucha mine increasedfrom 40mn tonnes with an average grade of 12.8% zinc, to 63.5mn tonnes with an average gradeof around 13% zinc. The company's combined reserves and resource position is currently at255mn tonnes. HZL estimates the remaining mine life at Rampura Agucha to be approximately 12years. The two underground mines at Rajpura Dariba and Zawar, which meet around 5% each ofthe company's ore requirement, have six and four years of mine life left, respectively, on currentreserves.
HZL is one of the lowest-costzinc manufacturers in theworld, with huge reserves ofhigh-quality captive zinc mines
23January 30, 2008 For Private Circulation Only - Sebi Registration No : INB 010996539August 7, 2009 For Private Circulation Only - Sebi Registration No : INB 010996539 23
Sterlite Industries
Base Metals
Sterlite Energy - Powering Growth
Sterlite is foraying into the high-growth merchant-power business through its wholly-ownedsubsidiary, Sterlite Energy Ltd. Sterlite Energy is setting up thermal coal-based power capacity of2,400MW in Jharsuguda, Orissa, which would be commissioned in four phases, with a total capitalexpenditure of US $1.9bn, which is fully tied-up. The first phase of 600MW is expected to becommissioned by December 2009, and 600MW additional capacities are to become operationalafter every quarter. The full ramp-up of the entire project is expected in FY2011E.
The company has already entered into a Power Purchase Agreement (PPA) with the Orissagovernment, to supply around 600MW of power every year. The remaining power can be suppliedfor the operations of VAL, and the surplus power can be sold in the spot market. Vedanta Aluminiumwould require 1,000MW power at its peak capacity, which would be supplied from Sterlite Energyat the long-term contracted price. However, once the power project at VAL is commissioned, theentire 1,800 MW would be sold on a merchant basis. We expect Sterlite Energy to contribute 15%of the consolidated revenues and 21.3% of the consolidated EBITDA, after the full ramp-up of theproject in FY2012E.
Talwandi Sabo,Punjab 1,980 Under reviewSource: Company, AngelResearch
Coal linkages secured
Sterlite Energy has also been allotted coal blocks, along with six other players; SEL's share of coalwould be around 112mn tonnes. Until these mines become operational, SEL would feed its 600MWpower plant from the linkages it has secured from the government. Notably, SEL has secured coallinkages from the Mahanandi coal field, for its 600MW power plant. The company is also in theprocess of securing linkages for its remaining capacity of 1,800MW.
Sterlite Energy is setting upthermal coal-based powercapacity of 2,400MW inJharsuguda, Orissa
We expect Sterlite Energy tocontribute 15% of theconsolidated revenues and21.3% of the consolidatedEBITDA in FY2012E
24January 30, 2008 For Private Circulation Only - Sebi Registration No : INB 010996539August 7, 2009 For Private Circulation Only - Sebi Registration No : INB 010996539 24
Sterlite Industries
Base Metals
Healthy balance sheet to support expansions
The estimated capex for Sterlite, over the next four years, is expected to be nearly US $7.9bn,which also includes US $1.1bn to be spent on the Asarco acquisition, and US $1.7bn for minoritybuyouts in BALCO and Hindustan Zinc. However, despite the huge capex, we believe that Sterlite'sbalance sheet is healthy enough to feed its expansions. We expect Sterlite's debt-equity ratio tobe at a mere 0.3x in FY2011E, and is in a comfortable position. The Hindustan Zinc subsidiary isa cash cow, with a cash balance of US $2bn at the end of FY2009. Sterlite Standalone has netcash of US $1.6bn, and the parent company Vedanta is sitting on cash and cash equivalents ofUS $5bn. Apart from this, the recent ADS issue of US$ 1.6bn will also improve the liquidity and willhelp in funding the energy projects at Sterlite Energy and the other expansions projects.
Source: Company, Angel Research; * already tied up
Exhibit 34: Capex from SterliteUS $ bn Capex Spent till date RemainingBALCO 1.8 0.3 1.5VAL 1.4 1.0 0.4Sterlite Energy 1.9 1.9*Asarco Acquisitions 1.1 - 1.1Minority Buyouts 1.7 - 1.7Total 7.9 3.2 4.7Cash + Cash Equivalents 1.6ADS 1.6Total remaining 1.5
We don't view the recent ADS issue of US $1.6bn (including a green-shoe option of US $100mn)as a negative development, despite the 15% dilution. We believe that this would provide furtherliquidity to the company to fund its aggressive capex plans.
Minority buyouts - a near-term trigger
The company is planning to exercise its call option to buy the remaining 29% stake in HZL from thegovernment. We believe that the minority buyout would be value-accretive, considering the hugecash balance of over US $2bn in HZL. Sterlite is also looking to purchase the remaining 49% stakein BALCO. The management expects a capital outflow of US $1.7bn on the purchase of stakes inboth these companies. In the recent con-call, the management has indicated that the purchasewill be completed in the next two to three months.
We believe that Sterlite'sbalance sheet is healthyenough to feed its expansions
We expect Sterlite'sdebt-equity ratio to be at amere 0.3x in FY2011E, and isin a comfortable position
25January 30, 2008 For Private Circulation Only - Sebi Registration No : INB 010996539August 7, 2009 For Private Circulation Only - Sebi Registration No : INB 010996539 25
Sterlite Industries
Base Metals
Financial Performance
Expansions to offset lower commodity prices
Led by capacity expansions at BALCO and HZL, and the ramp-up at Sterlite Energy, we expectSterlite's consolidated revenues to grow at a CAGR of 11.3% during FY2009-11E. We expectrevenues to grow from Rs21,144cr in FY2009 to Rs26,183cr in FY2011E. We also estimatealuminium volumes to grow at a CAGR of 11.1% during the same period, due to the ramp-up ofcapacities at BALCO. In the same period, we expect zinc volumes to grow at a CAGR of 11.4%.However, due to the fall in LME prices, we expect the revenue growth to be capped, going forward.
Source: Company, Angel Research
Exhibit 35: Revenue Trend
(40)
(20)
0
20
40
60
80
100
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
FY2007 FY2008 FY2009 FY2010E FY2011E
%Rs cr
Revenues (LHS) yoy (RHS)
Net profit to grow faster than revenues
We expect Sterlite's Net Profit to grow at a much faster rate than its revenues, due to an improvementin the margins, on account of the reduction in production costs. Notably, the consolidated net profitis expected to increase at a CAGR of 20.5%.
Source: Company, Angel Research
Exhibit 36: Net Profit Trend
(50)
0
50
100
150
200
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
FY2007 FY2008 FY2009 FY2010E FY2011E
%Rs cr
Net Profit (LHS) yoy (RHS)
We expect Sterlite'sconsolidated revenues to growat a CAGR of 11.3% duringFY2009-11E
We expect the consolidatednet profit is expected toincrease at a CAGR of 20.5%
26January 30, 2008 For Private Circulation Only - Sebi Registration No : INB 010996539August 7, 2009 For Private Circulation Only - Sebi Registration No : INB 010996539 26
Sterlite Industries
Base Metals
Margins to improve despite the fall in LME prices
The Consolidated EBITDA margin is expected to improve by 738bp over FY2009-11E, from 22.2%in FY2009 to 29.6% in FY2011E, due to a reduction in the cost of production for aluminium andzinc. The inclusion of the high margins of Sterlite Energy will also boost the overall margins forSterlite. We estimate the operating profit to increase at a CAGR of 28.4% through FY2009-11E.
Source: Company, Angel Research
Exhibit 37: EBITDA, EBITDA Margins
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
0
1,500
3,000
4,500
6,000
7,500
9,000
10,500
FY2007 FY2008 FY2009 FY2010E FY2011E
%Rs cr
EBIDTA (LHS) EBIDTA Margins (RHS)
The consolidated EBITDAmargin is expected to improveby 738bp over FY2009-11E
27January 30, 2008 For Private Circulation Only - Sebi Registration No : INB 010996539August 7, 2009 For Private Circulation Only - Sebi Registration No : INB 010996539 27
Sterlite Industries
Base Metals
Investment Concerns
Delay in capacity expansions
Sterlite is aggressively expanding its capacity in the aluminium, zinc and power businesses. Thevolume growth coming in from these expansions is a major driver for the company's profitability inthe coming years. Any delay here would impact our profit estimates for the company.
Delay in Niyamgiri mines
Sterlite has been allotted the Niyamgiri bauxite mines in Orissa, with reserves of 70mn tonnes.The management expects operations to commence from October 2009E. However, any delay inbauxite mining will impact the cost of production for aluminium and, hence, would impact theprofitability.
Delay in coal linkages and coal mining
The company has been allotted 112mn tonnes of coal-blocks for its operations at Sterlite Energy.Also, coal linkages for the 1,800MW plant have yet to be secured by the government. Any delay incoal mining or linkages will increase the power cost at SEL and would impact our estimates.
Deceleration in demand
Sterlite's products mainly have applications in construction, automobile, packaging and the steelindustry, which are suffering from the global economic slowdown. The continued weak demand formetals from the end-user segments could affect the sales volumes and, hence, the profitability ofthe company.
Volatility in LME Prices
Since it is into commodities, Sterlite's earnings are linked to LME prices, which are very volatile. Asudden fall in LME prices, due to a low demand and a higher inventory at the LME, would pose asubstantial risk to our estimates.
Rupee fluctuations
Sterlite's realisations are linked to LME prices, which are denominated in Dollar terms. Hence, anyfluctuations in the Dollar-Rupee rates will have an impact on the domestic realisations of thesecommodities and, consequently, the revenues of the company.
28January 30, 2008 For Private Circulation Only - Sebi Registration No : INB 010996539August 7, 2009 For Private Circulation Only - Sebi Registration No : INB 010996539 28
Sterlite Industries
Base Metals
Outlook and Valuation
Due to the diversity of its businesses, we have valued Sterlite on a Sum-of-the-Parts (SOTP)valuation. We have valued Hindustan Zinc at a mid-cycle EV/EBITDA of 5x and have arrived at avalue of Rs248, which is almost 40% of Sterlite's market cap. We believe that HZL, one of thelowest cost producers in the world, is a fundamentally strong company, with zero-debt and substantialcash reserves on its books, and is well placed even in the downturn. We have valued Sterlite'scopper business at 5.5x EV/EBITDA and attribute Rs176 (including ADS of US $1.6bn) to this. Wehave assigned a lower multiple to the copper business as it is a just a custom smelter, and, hence,its profitability would be dependent on Tc/Rc margins. We have valued the aluminium businessesof BALCO and VAL at a 7x EV/EBITDA, and have arrived at an attributable value of Rs46 and 69,respectively. We have assigned a P/BV of 2.5x to Sterlite's energy business, and have arrived ata fair value of Rs80. Hence, our SOTP Value for Sterlite Industries comes at Rs630/share.
At the CMP of Rs629, Sterlite is trading at 16.7x and 10.3x its FY2010E and FY2011E Earnings,respectively. However, it is trading at 11.1x and 5.7x its FY2010E and FY2011E EV/EBITDA,respectively. We are positive on the overall business prospects of the company, the management’saggressive expansion plans and its impressive execution record, and we believe that Sterlite iswell-placed to tide over the downturn with its healthy balance sheet. However, with the hugerun-up in the stock price, with a YTD return of over 150%, we believe that the near-term positiveshave already been factored into the CMP. Yet, these valuations do not reflect the entire expansionplans of the company, which would be completed by FY2013-14E. We initiate coverage on thestock with a Neutral recommendation, and an SOTP-based target price of Rs630, at whichSterlite would trade at a P/E of 10.3x and an EV/EBITDA of 5.7x our FY2011E estimates.
HZL HZ IN March 52.6 16.8 10.5 10.0 6.7 4.8Xstrata XTA LN Dec 34.4 12.5 1.7 2.5 2.3 3.0Korea Zinc 010130 KS Dec 20.5 12.3 6.0 6.2 3.0 2.9Umicore UMI BR Dec 5.2 13.5 6.5 8.0 4.5 5.3Teck Cominco TCK/B Dec 43.4 14.2 1.2 1.3 0.8 0.7Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research
29January 30, 2008 For Private Circulation Only - Sebi Registration No : INB 010996539August 7, 2009 For Private Circulation Only - Sebi Registration No : INB 010996539 29
Sterlite Industries
Base Metals
Exhibit 40: Comparative Valuations - AluminiumBloomberg Year End EBITDA
30January 30, 2008 For Private Circulation Only - Sebi Registration No : INB 010996539August 7, 2009 For Private Circulation Only - Sebi Registration No : INB 010996539 30
Sterlite Industries
Base Metals
Profit & Loss Statement Rs croreY/E March FY2008 FY2009 FY2010E FY2011E
Cash Flow Statement Rs croreY/E March FY2008 FY2009 FY2010E FY2011E
Profit before tax 8,468 5,816 4,818 8,199
Depreciation 595 701 987 1,131
(Inc)/Dec in working capital 87 (261) (174) 551
Income taxes paid 2,103 855 819 1,804
Minorities & Associates 1,966 1,421 837 1,253
Cash flow from operations 4,907 4,501 4,323 5,722
Change in Fixed assets 2,984 4,000 5,000 4,000
Free cash flows 1,923 501 (677) 1,722
Change in Investments 11,072 0 0 0
Change in Share capital 8,051 0 7,680 0
Change in Debt 464 2,000 3,500 2,500
Dividend and div. tax paid 283 248 370 602
Misc Items 1,533 (388) (838) (2,565)
Cash flow from financing (1,308) 1,364 9,972 (666)
inc/(dec) in cash 615 1,865 9,295 1,056
Opening cash balance 232 847 2,713 12,007
Closing cash balance 847 2,713 12,007 13,063
Key RatiosY/E March FY2008 FY2009 FY2010E FY2011E
Per Share Data (Rs)EPS 62.6 49.3 37.7 61.2
Cash EPS 71.0 59.2 49.4 74.7
DPS 6.5 5.8 4.4 7.2
Book value per share 228 346 386 488
Operating Ratios (%)
Sales growth 1.3 (14.4) (7.0) 33.2
EBITDA margins 31.8 22.2 21.4 29.6
Net profit margins 17.8 16.7 16.1 19.6
Return ratios (%)
RoE 27.3 14.4 9.8 12.5
RoCE 17.2 10.1 7.4 9.5
Dividend payout 10.4 11.7 11.7 11.7
Valuation ratios (x)
P/E 10.0 12.8 16.7 10.3
P/BV 2.8 1.8 1.6 1.3
EV/Sales 1.9 2.2 2.4 1.7
EV/EBITDA 6.0 9.7 11.1 5.7
31January 30, 2008 For Private Circulation Only - Sebi Registration No : INB 010996539August 7, 2009 For Private Circulation Only - Sebi Registration No : INB 010996539 31
Sterlite Industries
Base Metals
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Commodities Research Team (Fundamentals)Badruddin Sr. Research Analyst (Agri) [email protected] Pote Research Analyst (Energy Complex) [email protected] Walia Research Analyst ( Base Metals) [email protected] Narvekar Research Analyst ( Agri) vedika.narvekar @angeltrade.comNalini Rao Research Analyst (Agri) [email protected]
32January 30, 2008 For Private Circulation Only - Sebi Registration No : INB 010996539August 7, 2009 For Private Circulation Only - Sebi Registration No : INB 010996539 32
Sterlite Industries
Base Metals
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