Net Marketing Will Take 18% Of Budget By 2012

HeadquartersForrester Research, Inc., 400 Technology Square, Cambridge, MA 02139 USATel: +1 617.613.6000 • Fax: +1 617.613.5000 • www.forrester.com

For Marketing Leadership Professionals

EXECUTIVE SUMMARYThe vast majority of marketers use search, banner advertising, and email as part of their media mix. With more consumers going online, and in particular more consumers switching to always-on broadband, we predict that European marketing budgets for these three channels will increase from 9% to 18% of total marketing budgets.

ONLINE MARKETING COMES OF AGE

Online marketing is no longer a by-product of TV and print campaigns, but an important integral element of marketing. This means that:

· TV and print budgets will drop. More than one in three consumers say that since going online they watch less TV, and 28% have reduced newspaper and magazine reading. Marketing leaders will shift budgets accordingly from old to new media.

· Media budgets vary by market. Markets with high broadband penetration like The Netherlands will require a higher online budget than laggard markets like Spain. Pan-European campaigns can use the same content across nations, but local marketing managers will need the authority and guidelines to turn the online budget dial according to local market maturity.

· Campaign planning and execution change. Whereas traditional media excel at creating brand awareness, Internet marketing’s biggest strength is moving consumers from awareness to preference in the funnel. Combine old and new media in a seamless way, and campaigns increase more in effectiveness than the sum of their parts would suggest, an effect firms can measure and prove by analyzing Web traffic.

January 9, 2008

Net Marketing Will Take 18% Of Budget By 2012European Online Marketing Tops €16 Billion In 2012an introduction by Jaap Favier

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2Net Marketing Will Take 18% Of Budget By 2012 For Marketing Leadership Professionals

Forrester Research, Inc. (Nasdaq: FORR) is an independent technology and market research company that provides pragmatic and forward-thinking advice to global leaders in business and technology. For more than 24 years, Forrester has been making leaders successful every day through its proprietary research, consulting, events, and peer-to-peer executive programs. For more information, visit www.forrester.com.

© 2008, Forrester Research, Inc. All rights reserved. Forrester, Forrester Wave, RoleView, Technographics, TechRadar, and Total Economic Impact are trademarks of Forrester Research, Inc. All other trademarks are the property of their respective companies. Forrester clients may make one attributed copy or slide of each figure contained herein. Additional reproduction is strictly prohibited. For additional reproduction rights and usage information, go to www.forrester.com. Information is based on best available resources. Opinions reflect judgment at the time and are subject to change. To purchase reprints of this document, please email [email protected]. 44739

R E C O M M E N D A T I O N S

SET YEARLY ONLINE BUDGETS BASED ON BRAND POSITIONING SPECIFICS

The 18% number is an average, which will vary by target audience, national market, and campaign objective. Marketing leaders should require their media and brand managers to plan their yearly online budgets at that level of granularity. International media agencies like Mediacom can assist them in this process.

I encourage you to read the full report below.

Jaap Favier, Vice President & Research Director, Marketing Leadership

Making Leaders Successful Every Day

July 12, 2007

European Online Marketing Tops €16 Billion In 2012by Rebecca Jenningsfor Interactive Marketing Professionals

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HeadquartersForrester Research, Inc., 400 Technology Square, Cambridge, MA 02139 USATel: +1 617.613.6000 • Fax: +1 617.613.5000 • www.forrester.com

For Interactive Marketing ProfessionalsIncludes data from Consumer Technographics®

EXECUTIVE SUMMARYThe value of European online marketing — including email, search, and display advertising — will more than double from around €7.5 billion in 2006 to more than €16 billion in 2012, 18% of total media budgets. Firms will raise their online budgets primarily to better reach the growing Net audience that relies on the Web for a widening range of decisions. After five years of dipping their toes into the online marketing waters, firms have come to realize that the Net is a valuable medium for client acquisition, retention, and market expansion.

TABLE OF CONTENTSConsumers Are More Receptive To Online Marketing

Marketers Are Following The Crowd

The European Online Ad Spend Will Exceed €16 Billion In 2012

Search Marketing Remains The Key Driver

The UK Keeps The Highest Turnover; Germany Has The Highest Increase

WHAT IT MEANS

Significant Change Will Reshape The Marketing Organization

NOTES & RESOURCESWe drew data from Forrester’s Consumer Technographics® surveys. We also conducted interviews with 24 major advertisers.

Related Research Documents“Europeans Have Adopted Social Computing Differently”June 11, 2007

“Maturing Your Interactive Marketing Organization”May 1, 2007

“Europe’s eCommerce Forecast: 2006 To 2011”June 29, 2006

July 12, 2007

European Online Marketing Tops €16 Billion In 2012Double-Digit Growth Continues As The Market Hits 18% Of All Advertisingby Rebecca Jenningswith Jaap Favier and Shar VanBoskirk

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2

7

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CONSUMERS ARE MORE RECEPTIVE TO ONLINE MARKETING

Marketers complain that it is harder to reach today’s consumer due to media fragmentation and the growing influence of the Internet. Where can they reach Net-active Europeans these days?

· Audience and attention are shifting online. Around 52% of Europeans are regularly online from home, 64% of them using a broadband connection.1 On average, online consumers spend 14.3 hours online a week, compared with 11.3 hours watching TV and 4.4 hours reading newspapers and magazines. Many think that the time they spend online affects their offline viewing: 36% say that they watch less TV because they’ve been online, enough reason for any marketer to review their media mix (see Figure 1).

· Consumers’ reliance on online services is growing. Consumers now rely heavily on online sources for a variety of activities, including: shopping; researching holidays; and finding the latest news, sports, and gossip. For example, 36% of online adults have recently downloaded music online, and 20% have downloaded games (see Figure 2-1). As many as 76% of online consumers have recently looked for product or service information online, and 35% have bid or sold in online auctions (see Figure 2-2). This places the Internet at every point in the consumer purchase and consumption cycle, widening the opportunities for marketers to engage online across all industries.

· Trust in many types of advertising is low. According to Forrester’s ECTAS Q2 2006 Benchmark Survey, around 67% of online consumers think that advertisers don’t tell the truth in ads, and just 34% say that they don’t mind ads if they relate to their interests.2 However, 40% of online consumers trust price-comparison sites, and 36% trust online product reviews from other users (see Figure 3). This opens the doors for new online marketing forms like word-of-mouth (WOM) email campaigns and blog advertising.

MARKETERS ARE FOLLOWING THE CROWD

Industry indicators suggest that overall marketing spending is growing again in Europe in 2007 after several slow years. For example, the IPA Bellwether report for Q1 2007 suggests that 54% of companies have set their 2007 budgets higher than their actual spend for 2006.3 Forrester interviewed 24 major European marketers to gain an insight into their online marketing strategies today and going forward. This is what we learned:

· Online display advertising remains universally popular. Almost all of the interviewees use banner ads, with 17 using buttons and the same percentage using online sponsorships (see Figure 4). More than half of them also use rich media ads. Interviewees cite a variety of drivers for online spend, with 10 wanting to grow their business and nine saying that they are simply following their consumers.



Figure 1 More Than One-Third Of Internet Users Say They Watch Less TV Now

Figure 2 Online Users Turn To The Internet For Many Reasons

Source: Forrester Research, Inc.41451

“Since going online, how has the amount of time you spend using each ofthe following types of media offline changed, if at all?”

Watching TV

Reading newspapers

Reading magazines

36% 59% 4%

Listening to the radio 17% 69% 8% 5%

2%

28% 64% 5%3%

28% 63% 5%3%

Base: 7,377 European online adultsSource: Forrester’s ECTAS Q3 2006 Media, Marketing, and Retail Study

Decreased Did not change Increased Don’t know


Done online in the past four weeks2-2Downloaded in the past month2-1

Published your ownWeb pages

None of these

Written a customer review

Used video chat

Made phone calls overthe Web

Posted comment on product/service in chat/forum/blog

Read a customer review

Researched/requested freeproducts/samples/coupons

Bid/sold in online auctions

Entered online competitionsor sweepstakes

Read magazines/newspapers online

Viewed classified ad listings

Search for products/service information

42%

76%

41%

36%

35%

32%

31%

14%

10%

8%

8%

8%

9%

Ring tones

None of these

TV shows/episodes

PDF versions of books

Films

Screensavers/wallpapers

Games

Software

Music files

7%

38%

9%

10%

17%

17%

20%

34%

36%

Base: 7,212 European online adults(multiple responses accepted)


Source: Forrester’s ECTAS Q4 2006 Device, Access and Telco Study, ECTAS Q3 2006 Media, Marketing, and Retail Study

“Which, if any, of the following types of fileshave you downloaded in the past month?”

“Which of the following activities have youdone online in the past week?”



Figure 3 More Than One-Third Of Internet Users Trust Consumer-Generated Online Content

Figure 4 Banners Remain Universally Popular

“In the 21st century, the landscape of advertising is changing — people are in control. We need to become more expert in the online field. Our intention is to spend more online, as our consumers and competitors are there.” (Manufacturer)

“We try to spend money around partnerships with big online brands, as well as building our brand and our traffic for sales and eCommerce. Traffic and audience are the reasons why we’re spending online.” (Services provider)

· Search becomes a key element. Most respondents use paid search, with 17 paying agency fees in the process (see Figure 5). They are in it for the long term — none said they would be spending less on search in five years time, and three in four expect to spend more. Why? A variety of reasons, including good return on investment (ROI), a need to follow the general trend, and a desire to do more targeted marketing.


General blogs

Consumer product reviews

Journalists’ or celebrities’ blogs

Discussion forum posts

Consumer-generated reference information

Price-comparison site results

10%

11%

26%

32%

36%

40%


Source: Forrester’s ECTAS Q3 2006 Media, Marketing, and Retail Survey

Percentage of European online consumers who trust:


We don’t use online advertising

Sponsorships

Other

Rich-media ads (videos and Flash)

Pop-up/pop-under ads

Buttons

1

4

13

14

17

17

Banners 22

Base: 24 leading European marketers(multiple responses accepted)

“Which of the following forms of online display advertising has your company used in 2006?”



“We have to put our products where the consumers are looking for them. We’re going to do more search marketing because we have more and more products that can be subscribed to directly on the Internet.” (Services provider)

“It’s easier to spend on search. For email, you have to build up lists; for search, you just pay.” (Retailer)

· Email is now ubiquitous. The majority of our respondents use email marketing (see Figure 6). More than half say that they will increase their spend over the next five years, with one-third citing the fact that they can target and personalize better with this medium. Around one-fifth plan to increase spending because of the greater efficiency and lower cost of email compared with other channels.

“We are trying to switch regular mailing to email because it’s less expensive and more flexible. We can send more emails per year than brochures.” (Manufacturer)

“We want to invest more in segmenting, making the emails more relevant in terms of content.” (Retailer)

· Emerging channels generate significant interest. Our interviewees are advanced in their adoption of new types of marketing channels; almost two-thirds say that they are already using WOM campaigns, and 10 say that they are working with social network users (see Figure 7).

“For WOM campaigns, we’re looking at opinion leaders. We’re working with a UK university on a project to see who the influencers are.” (Manufacturer)

“We were the first mobile brand into Second Life — we’re trying to be relevant to people.” (Telecom company)

· Integrated marketing gains mindshare. A number of interviewees commented that their marketing plans are heavily influenced by where users are migrating to and how messages to them work together across channels — a distinct shift from plans that are purely dominated by TV ad slots or by historical spend.

“We need to make sure that we adapt to the particularities of the locals. We’ll be online for the people online; we’ll stay traditional for the people who are poorer, with no access.” (Manufacturer)

“The most interesting area of marketing is the interference between the marketing channels. What impact does natural search have on catalogs — or a game on affiliate marketing? It’s an indirect relationship, and it’s our — difficult — job to play the right tunes with the right notes.” (Retailer)



Figure 6 Three-Quarters Of Interviewees Use Agencies For Email

Figure 7 The Majority Of Interviewees Are Planning Investments In Social Media

Figure 5 Paid Search Dominates The Search Market


We don’t use search marketing

Agency fees

Contextual listings

Vertical search (e.g., LookSmart)

Paid inclusion

Paid search

3

9

10

14

17

20


“Which of the following forms of search marketing has your company used in 2006?”


We don’t use email marketing

List management

Other

List rental

Co-registration and email sponsorship

Technology

2

3

11

12

14

16

Agency fees 18


“Which of the following forms of email marketing has your company used in 2006?”


“Are you doing or planning any of the following?”


Starting a company blog

Working with bloggers

Implementing RSS

In-game advertising

Working with social networks users

Implementing podcasting

Leveraging mobile marketing

Soliciting customer reviews

WOM/viral campaigns

Requesting feedback on your site

PlanningDoing

173

146

127

107

106

910

888

68

15

8



THE EUROPEAN ONLINE AD SPEND WILL EXCEED €16 BILLION IN 2012

The interviews show that, over the past five years, firms have discovered the real potential of online marketing. And as consumers show no sign of cutting back on their online activities, online marketers will remain bullish about the Net. For this report, we have quantified the results in a forecast of the growth of email marketing, display advertising (including rich media), and search marketing spending by country in Europe. Overall, our numbers show that Net marketing will grow from around €7.5 billion in 2006 to €16.0 billion in 2012 — or, to put it another way, from around 9% of all marketing spend to 18% (see Figure 8). Forrester will publish a more detailed analysis of each individual type of marketing in separate reports over the next month, but here are the headline results.

Search Marketing Remains The Key Driver

Overall, the online advertising market will grow at a compound annual growth rate of 14% between 2006 and 2012, with search growing at 14%, email at 10%, and display ads at 14%.

· Search will continue to dominate spend. Search marketing — including agency fees, paid inclusion, paid search, and contextual listings — will grow from €3.7 billion to €8.1 billion. Paid search dominates, taking 81% of this spend; it remains both the first point of call for new online marketers looking to try out the medium and a key tool for experienced marketers looking to reach consumers at a decision point in their purchase cycle.

· Display ads will double over the next five years. Spending on display advertising — for example, banners, buttons, and pop-ups — will grow from €2.5 billion in 2006 to €5.6 billion in 2012. As the number of European consumers with home broadband access rises from 47 million to 83 million over this period, existing Net advertisers will ramp up their spend, expanding into new formats such as rich media.4 Additionally, marketers new to the medium and those in historically under-served markets such as Germany and Italy will come on board as consumer interest and high-speed access grows.

· Email marketing will grow steadily. Email marketing — which incorporates list rentals, outsourced email delivery, and newsletter sponsorships — will reach €2.3 billion in 2012, up from €1.3 billion in 2006. Growth comes from an increasing number of firms participating in email marketing, although the number of customer process managers for outsourcing and for list rentals are likely to drop slightly as markets become more developed.

The UK Keeps The Highest Turnover; Germany Has The Highest Increase

The three largest European economies also dominate the European Internet advertising market (see Figure 9). However, as home broadband growth — an important Net marketing driver — varies by country, the online budgets in countries like Ireland will increase faster than in the Netherlands, for instance (see Figure 10).



· The UK, France, and Germany will contribute almost €12 billion in 2012. Together, the three largest European economies make up around three-quarters of the European Internet advertising market, and this won’t change over the next five years. Germany, in particular, will experience strong growth; historically, low broadband penetration and lack of data around the efficacy of online marketing have held the market back, but those days are over.

· Southern Europe will grow from €873 million to €2 billion. Italy, Spain, and Portugal make up around 13% of the European Internet ad market and will generate almost €2 billion in spending in 2012. Slower adoption of the Internet by retailers and publishers in Southern Europe resulted in low interest from marketers and a lack of inventory for those that did show an interest. However, as online retail ramps up — the percentage of online shoppers in Italy has doubled in the past five years, for example — and publishers move online, the market will grow by 129% by 2012.5

· The Nordics will exceed €800 million in five years. Together, Denmark, Sweden, Finland, and Norway deliver around €377 million in Internet ad revenues, and this is set to more than double. Strong historic broadband growth in the Nordics has delivered eyeballs online, although in Sweden, for example, the percentage of online shoppers remains lower than in the UK. However, over the next five years, eCommerce in the Nordics is forecast to grow at around 24% per year, which, alongside increased localized content, will encourage online marketing spend.6

Figure 8 Forecast: European Internet Advertising Spend By Type, 2007 To 2012


Email marketing

Display advertising

Search marketing

Email marketing

Search marketing

Display advertising

€0

€2,000

€4,000

€6,000

€8,000

€10,000

€12,000

€14,000

€16,000

€18,000

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

€1,306

€3,674

€2,500

€1,549

€4,517

€3,000

€1,753

€5,328

€3,540

€1,879

€6,120

€4,071

€2,023

€6,848

€4,560

€2,130

€7,463

€5,107

€2,256

€8,139

€5,617

Total (€ millions) €7,480 €9,066 €10,621 €12,070 €13,430 €14,699 €16,012

(millions)



Figure 9 Forecast: European Online Marketing Spend By Country, 2007 To 2012


€0

€2,000

€4,000

€6,000

€8,000

€10,000

€12,000

€14,000

€16,000

€18,000

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

UK

France

Germany

€3,237

€1,312

€1,023

€3,767

€1,784

€1,258

€4,009

€2,337

€1,514

€4,309

€2,885

€1,737

€4,687

€3,210

€2,010

€5,027

€3,544

€2,282

€5,372

€3,895

€2,576

Italy

Netherlands

Spain

€478

€337

€329

€570

€393

€379

€729

€440

€458

€874

€499

€480

€969

€594

€520

€1,057

€654

€557

€1,148

€718

€592

Sweden

Belgium

Ireland

€198

€77

€92

€237

€114

€103

€272

€141

€129

€302

€168

€141

€346

€197

€153

€371

€225

€164

€397

€255

€176

Denmark

Portugal

Switzerland

€75

€94

€59

€86

€103

€68

€122

€113

€80

€142

€121

€92

€154

€128

€104

€165

€135

€117

€175

€141

€130

Norway

Finland

Austria

€57

€56

€47

€66

€66

€54

€88

€86

€77

€98

€97

€91

€106

€107

€100

€121

€117

€109

€130

€127

€117

Greece

Luxembourg

€8

€2

€14

€3

€23

€4

€31

€4

€39

€5

€47

€5

€57

€6

Total (€ millions) €7,462 €9,065 €10,621 €12,069 €13,431 €14,699 €16,012

SwedenNetherlandsSpainItalyFranceGermanyUK

Rest of Europe

(millions)



Figure 10 Broadband And Marketing Spend Growth Are Closely Linked

W H A T I T M E A N S

SIGNIFICANT CHANGE WILL RESHAPE THE MARKETING ORGANIZATION

An expanding interactive marketing universe doesn’t just mean more budget; over the next few years, the shift of online marketing from experiment to mainstream will force marketing organizations and processes to change.

· Social media will bring real-time intelligence. As different types of social media strengthen their grip on users, expect marketers to jump on the bandwagon by switching ad euros to social media forms like RSS, blogs, and networks.7 Email spend will look to drive viral buzz — requiring increased investment in customer data analytics; expect to see more “made for the Net” video commercials, such as Dove’s Evolution campaign, debuting on YouTube. The immediacy of the effects of these channels means that marketing organizations will have a continuous customer feedback channel, which needs to find its way into every cell of the organization: At the management level, use a Brand Image dashboard; at the execution level, develop internal processes that allow any campaign manager to respond immediately to changing client needs.

· Publisher/agency consolidation will rationalize the market. The recent rash of acquisitions within the online marketing space — such as Microsoft’s acquisition of aQuantive and Google’s purchase of DoubleClick — presents marketers with easier routes


Onlinemarketing

spendCAGR

2006-2012

Denmark

Sweden

Finland

Broadband CAGR, 2006-2012

Ireland

Luxembourg

Portugal

UKNetherlands

Norway

Belgium

FranceItaly

Austria

Switzerland

Spain

Germany

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

Note: Greece has CAGRs of 39% for marketing and 34% for broadband; we omitted it from the graph tomaintain overall clarity.



online through integrated media operations. Expect this to drive smaller and more nervous marketers online, as it removes the complexity of having to deal with multiple stakeholders and relieves the pressure on their own marketing department. However, Forrester expects marketers to maintain some independent relationships, both for best-of-breed channel expertise and for third-party validation of strategies and results. Marketers with a cross-channel view and authority will have to manage these to ensure holistic campaign planning and execution.

· Interactive teams will organize for expansion. All this extra spend — and work — will stretch interactive marketing teams to their limit. Add in the complexities of integrating campaigns across media, and they’ll snap. Teams can no longer stand alone; firms will have to look hard at their own internal processes to determine whether they best fit the channel manager or excellence center models and implement these to mature into a Customer-Centric Marketing Organization.8

ENDNOTES1 Source: ECTAS Q2 2006 Benchmark Survey. We surveyed 25,447 European consumers in France, Germany,

Italy, the Netherlands, Poland, Spain, Sweden, and the UK.

2 Source: ECTAS Q2 2006 Benchmark Survey. We surveyed 25,447 European consumers in France, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands, Poland, Spain, Sweden, and the UK.

3 Source: Institute of Practitioners in Advertising (http://www.ipa.co.uk).

4 Western European residential broadband adoption has continued to grow since our last European broadband forecast in June 2003. The previous model showed some slightly inflated numbers because it hasn’t been possible to clearly eliminate business broadband lines from the 2002 and 2003 total market numbers until now: For example, business lines represented as much as 23% of all Belgian broadband lines in 2003. The “pure” residential market grew 81% in 2003; this impressive growth continued into 2004, clocking 28% growth during the first six months alone. And incumbent telcos’ broadband dominance is gradually being eroded. Looking ahead to 2010, we expect broadband to hit 41% household penetration, which equals 67% of those online that year. Broadband penetration will top 45% in the Netherlands and Scandinavia, thanks to large total online customer bases, competitive markets, and relatively low broadband prices. Penetration in Europe’s Big Five economies will vary between 35% and 45%. And xDSL will dominate the broadband market, taking 80% of the 2010 market. See the December 21, 2004, “European Residential Broadband Forecast 2004 To 2010” report.

5 The number of European online shoppers has grown from 42% of European online consumers in 2003 to 56% in 2006. The past year saw a large jump in adoption in Germany, the Netherlands, and Italy. The UK still leads in online shopping, but the Internet plays an important role during the buying cycle in all countries — more than half of all online Europeans have bought something in a shop after researching the product online. Security issues and the need to look and feel products prevent people from buying products on the Net. See the September 14, 2006, “Europe’s 2006 Online Shopping Landscape” report.






6 In the coming five years, the number of Europeans shopping online will grow from 100 million to 174 million. Their average yearly Net retail spending will grow from around €1,000 to €1,500, as UK Net consumers outspend even their US counterparts online. Overall, this will cause European eCommerce to surge to €263 billion in 2011, with travel, clothes, groceries, and consumer electronics all above the €10 billion per-year mark. See the June 29, 2006, “Europe’s eCommerce Forecast: 2006 To 2011” report.

7 European consumers haven’t adopted Social Computing equally. Different stages of Internet adoption, varying access speeds, and cultural differences help create a unique profile for each nation. Interactive marketers devising European Social Computing strategies need to address these differences by concentrating specific Social Computing activities in those countries where consumers practice them the most. See the June 11, 2007, “Europeans Adopt Social Computing Differently” report.

8 Interactive marketing is finally gaining executive attention. But while budgets and expectations for interactive marketing programs are on the rise, supporting organizational structures are ad hoc at best. Forrester recommends that firms align their interactive teams with one of two models — channel managers or excellence centers — and then grow within these models to ultimately integrate into a Customer-Centric Marketing Organization (CCMO). Standardizing interactive marketing teams will compel skills development, improve media/budget alignments, and necessitate new agency services. See the May 1, 2007,

“Maturing Your Interactive Marketing Organization” report.




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and forward-thinking advice to

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