Social Justice Data Analysis Neoliberalism, Islam(ism) and Social Justice Mahmoud A. El-Gamal Rice University Department of Economics March 23, 2014 Mahmoud A. El-Gamal – ERF Talk, March 23, 2014 Neoliberalism, Islam(ism) and Social Justice — slide 0 of 30
Presentation by Mahmoud A. ElGamal (Rice University) at the ERF 20th Annual Conference - Cairo, 23 March 2014.
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Social JusticeData Analysis
Neoliberalism, Islam(ism) and Social Justice
Mahmoud A. El-Gamal
Rice UniversityDepartment of Economics
March 23, 2014
Mahmoud A. El-Gamal – ERF Talk, March 23, 2014 Neoliberalism, Islam(ism) and Social Justice — slide 0 of 30
Social JusticeData Analysis
Safety Nets Are Not Enough?Justice in Philosophy & Islam
Outline
1 Social JusticeSafety Nets Are Not Enough?Justice in Philosophy & Islam
2 Data AnalysisIslamism and NeoliberalismThe Many Faces of Islamism
Mahmoud A. El-Gamal – ERF Talk, March 23, 2014 Neoliberalism, Islam(ism) and Social Justice — slide 1 of 30
Social JusticeData Analysis
Safety Nets Are Not Enough?Justice in Philosophy & Islam
Motivational Puzzle
New Washington Consensus: Utilitarianism + social safety nets⇒ Grounded in 20th-Century liberal theories of justice (Rawls + Sen)
Had been implemented de facto, if only to avoid social unrest
Puzzle: Egypt and Tunisia, apparently successful, erupted,demanding “Social Justice!”
Does “Islam”(ism) reject Rawls-type conceptions of social justice?
First clue: Revolutionaries were not poor, they were middle class!
Mahmoud A. El-Gamal – ERF Talk, March 23, 2014 Neoliberalism, Islam(ism) and Social Justice — slide 2 of 30
Social JusticeData Analysis
Safety Nets Are Not Enough?Justice in Philosophy & Islam
The Poor Have Not Fared Too Badly in MENARatio of Top Decile and Bottom Decile Shares in GDP
Mahmoud A. El-Gamal – ERF Talk, March 23, 2014 Neoliberalism, Islam(ism) and Social Justice — slide 4 of 30
Social JusticeData Analysis
Safety Nets Are Not Enough?Justice in Philosophy & Islam
Outline
1 Social JusticeSafety Nets Are Not Enough?Justice in Philosophy & Islam
2 Data AnalysisIslamism and NeoliberalismThe Many Faces of Islamism
Mahmoud A. El-Gamal – ERF Talk, March 23, 2014 Neoliberalism, Islam(ism) and Social Justice — slide 5 of 30
Social JusticeData Analysis
Safety Nets Are Not Enough?Justice in Philosophy & Islam
Aristotle on Distributive Justice
Book V of Nicomachean Ethics:
. . . and the just here is a middle term, whereas the unjust iswhat is contrary to the proportion, for the proportion is amiddle term and the just is a proportion. Themathematicians call this sort of proportion “geometric.”
. . . as a farmer stands in relation to a shoemaker, so the workof the shoemaker stands in relation to that of the farmer. Butone must not bring the works into the figure of theproportion after they have been exchanged . . .
Second clue: Were the middle classes not getting their “fair share?”
Mahmoud A. El-Gamal – ERF Talk, March 23, 2014 Neoliberalism, Islam(ism) and Social Justice — slide 6 of 30
Social JusticeData Analysis
Safety Nets Are Not Enough?Justice in Philosophy & Islam
Aristotle, Averroes, . . . Pareto
Aristotle proposed a labor theory of value for initial exchange only
Ibn Rushd (Bidayat Al-Mujtahid ):
Thus, the ratio of exchanged quantities will be determinedby the ratio of monetary values of different goods. . .
As for [fungible] goods measured by volume or weight,equity requires equality, since they are relatively homogenous. . . justice in this case is achieved by equating volume orweight, since the benefits are very similar.
Is it too much to read Pareto efficiency in this “benefit” analysis?
1/quantity ratio = price ratio = ratio of [marginal?] benefits
No distributive justice considerations (Aristotelian merit)?
Mahmoud A. El-Gamal – ERF Talk, March 23, 2014 Neoliberalism, Islam(ism) and Social Justice — slide 7 of 30
Social JusticeData Analysis
Safety Nets Are Not Enough?Justice in Philosophy & Islam
Aristotle, Averroes, . . . Pareto
Aristotle proposed a labor theory of value for initial exchange only
Ibn Rushd (Bidayat Al-Mujtahid ):
Thus, the ratio of exchanged quantities will be determinedby the ratio of monetary values of different goods. . .
As for [fungible] goods measured by volume or weight,equity requires equality, since they are relatively homogenous. . . justice in this case is achieved by equating volume orweight, since the benefits are very similar.
Is it too much to read Pareto efficiency in this “benefit” analysis?
1/quantity ratio = price ratio = ratio of [marginal?] benefits
No distributive justice considerations (Aristotelian merit)?
Mahmoud A. El-Gamal – ERF Talk, March 23, 2014 Neoliberalism, Islam(ism) and Social Justice — slide 7 of 30
Social JusticeData Analysis
Safety Nets Are Not Enough?Justice in Philosophy & Islam
The Primacy of Law I: Islamic Law and Economics
Posner:Often, the true grounds of legal decision are concealed ratherthan illuminated by the characteristic rhetoric of opinions.Indeed, legal education consists primarily of learning to digbeneath the rhetorical surface to find those grounds, many ofwhich may turn out to have an economic character
Islamic jurisprudence has been a common law system (Rosen),but many Islamists view it as a civil code:⇒ Legal arbitrage opportunities, such as so-called “Islamic finance”⇒ Circumvents ancient (efficiency-enhancing) regulations
Ibn Rushd and Ibn Khaldun sought social justice in “legal justice”
There is no “Islamic theory of justice” (is one needed?)
Mahmoud A. El-Gamal – ERF Talk, March 23, 2014 Neoliberalism, Islam(ism) and Social Justice — slide 8 of 30
Social JusticeData Analysis
Safety Nets Are Not Enough?Justice in Philosophy & Islam
The Primacy of Law I: Islamic Law and Economics
Posner:Often, the true grounds of legal decision are concealed ratherthan illuminated by the characteristic rhetoric of opinions.Indeed, legal education consists primarily of learning to digbeneath the rhetorical surface to find those grounds, many ofwhich may turn out to have an economic character
Islamic jurisprudence has been a common law system (Rosen),but many Islamists view it as a civil code:⇒ Legal arbitrage opportunities, such as so-called “Islamic finance”⇒ Circumvents ancient (efficiency-enhancing) regulations
Ibn Rushd and Ibn Khaldun sought social justice in “legal justice”
There is no “Islamic theory of justice” (is one needed?)
Mahmoud A. El-Gamal – ERF Talk, March 23, 2014 Neoliberalism, Islam(ism) and Social Justice — slide 8 of 30
Social JusticeData Analysis
Safety Nets Are Not Enough?Justice in Philosophy & Islam
The Primacy of Law I: Islamic Law and Economics
Posner:Often, the true grounds of legal decision are concealed ratherthan illuminated by the characteristic rhetoric of opinions.Indeed, legal education consists primarily of learning to digbeneath the rhetorical surface to find those grounds, many ofwhich may turn out to have an economic character
Islamic jurisprudence has been a common law system (Rosen),but many Islamists view it as a civil code:⇒ Legal arbitrage opportunities, such as so-called “Islamic finance”⇒ Circumvents ancient (efficiency-enhancing) regulations
Ibn Rushd and Ibn Khaldun sought social justice in “legal justice”
There is no “Islamic theory of justice” (is one needed?)
Mahmoud A. El-Gamal – ERF Talk, March 23, 2014 Neoliberalism, Islam(ism) and Social Justice — slide 8 of 30
Social JusticeData Analysis
Safety Nets Are Not Enough?Justice in Philosophy & Islam
Primacy of Law II: Modern Islamic Interpretations of “Justice”
Socialist-leaning interpretations: (Al-Siba
˘
ı; El-Ghazalı; . . . )Public ownership of basic necessities (water, pastures, fire) + someexpropriation extrapolated to nationalization of essential industriesMore equitable distribution (Abu-Bakr,
˘
Ali) preferred over unequaldistribution by merit (
˘
Umar,
˘
Uthman); + (T. Hussein, S. Qut.b,...)Some price fixing justified by anti-monopoly rulings
Libertarian-leaning interpretations: (jurists & most intellectuals)Same basic rules for initial acquisition of property (fallow land, etc.)Broad permission of transfer of property by mutual consentPublic ownership is an exception; expropriation was punishmentAccepting inequality in human and physical capital endowmentsReject price fixing, absent monopoly or need
Many emphasized former 1940s–70s, most emphasized lattermid-1970s onwards, all claiming to define a “middle way”
Mahmoud A. El-Gamal – ERF Talk, March 23, 2014 Neoliberalism, Islam(ism) and Social Justice — slide 9 of 30
Social JusticeData Analysis
Safety Nets Are Not Enough?Justice in Philosophy & Islam
Primacy of Law II: Modern Islamic Interpretations of “Justice”
Socialist-leaning interpretations: (Al-Siba
˘
ı; El-Ghazalı; . . . )Public ownership of basic necessities (water, pastures, fire) + someexpropriation extrapolated to nationalization of essential industriesMore equitable distribution (Abu-Bakr,
˘
Ali) preferred over unequaldistribution by merit (
˘
Umar,
˘
Uthman); + (T. Hussein, S. Qut.b,...)Some price fixing justified by anti-monopoly rulings
Libertarian-leaning interpretations: (jurists & most intellectuals)Same basic rules for initial acquisition of property (fallow land, etc.)Broad permission of transfer of property by mutual consentPublic ownership is an exception; expropriation was punishmentAccepting inequality in human and physical capital endowmentsReject price fixing, absent monopoly or need
Many emphasized former 1940s–70s, most emphasized lattermid-1970s onwards, all claiming to define a “middle way”
Mahmoud A. El-Gamal – ERF Talk, March 23, 2014 Neoliberalism, Islam(ism) and Social Justice — slide 9 of 30
Social JusticeData Analysis
Safety Nets Are Not Enough?Justice in Philosophy & Islam
Primacy of Law II: Modern Islamic Interpretations of “Justice”
Socialist-leaning interpretations: (Al-Siba
˘
ı; El-Ghazalı; . . . )Public ownership of basic necessities (water, pastures, fire) + someexpropriation extrapolated to nationalization of essential industriesMore equitable distribution (Abu-Bakr,
˘
Ali) preferred over unequaldistribution by merit (
˘
Umar,
˘
Uthman); + (T. Hussein, S. Qut.b,...)Some price fixing justified by anti-monopoly rulings
Libertarian-leaning interpretations: (jurists & most intellectuals)Same basic rules for initial acquisition of property (fallow land, etc.)Broad permission of transfer of property by mutual consentPublic ownership is an exception; expropriation was punishmentAccepting inequality in human and physical capital endowmentsReject price fixing, absent monopoly or need
Many emphasized former 1940s–70s, most emphasized lattermid-1970s onwards, all claiming to define a “middle way”
Mahmoud A. El-Gamal – ERF Talk, March 23, 2014 Neoliberalism, Islam(ism) and Social Justice — slide 9 of 30
Social JusticeData Analysis
Islamism and NeoliberalismThe Many Faces of Islamism
Outline
1 Social JusticeSafety Nets Are Not Enough?Justice in Philosophy & Islam
2 Data AnalysisIslamism and NeoliberalismThe Many Faces of Islamism
Mahmoud A. El-Gamal – ERF Talk, March 23, 2014 Neoliberalism, Islam(ism) and Social Justice — slide 10 of 30
Social JusticeData Analysis
Islamism and NeoliberalismThe Many Faces of Islamism
Neoliberalism – Strong Support Countries (Pew 2012)Most Better Off In Free−Market Economy Despite Inequality?
Mahmoud A. El-Gamal – ERF Talk, March 23, 2014 Neoliberalism, Islam(ism) and Social Justice — slide 19 of 30
Social JusticeData Analysis
Islamism and NeoliberalismThe Many Faces of Islamism
Jordan: Conditional Independence (WVS 2008)Estimated Bayesian Network (formal statistical test of conditional independence on next slide)
a001
a002
a003
a004
a005 a006
a008
a009
a104 a106a124.02
a124.03
a124.06
a124.07
a124.08
a124.09
a124.12
a124.14
a124.42
a124.43
a165
a168a
a170a173
a189
a190
a191
a192
a193
a194
a195
a196a197
a198
b001
b002
b003
b008
b018
b019
b020
b021
b022
b023
c001
c002
c006
c009
c010
c036
c037
c038 c039
c041
c059
d001
d022
d055
d060d078
e001
e002
e003
e004
e005
e006
e012
e016
e018
e023
e025
e025b
e026
e026b
e027
e033
e035
e036
e037
e039
e040
e041
e069.01
e069.02
e069.03
e069.04
e069.05
e069.06
e069.07
e069.08
e069.10
e069.11
e069.12
e069.13
e069.14
e069.15e069.17
e069.20
e069.40
e069.51
e114
e115e116
e117
e124
e135
e136
e137
e138
e139
e143
e217
e218
e219
e220
e221b
e224
e225
e226
e227
e228
e229
e230
e231
e232
e233
e234
e235
e236
e237
e238
e239
e240
e241
e247
e248
e249
e250e251
e252
e253
e254
e255
f001
f025
f028
f034
f035
f036
f037
f038
f102
f103 f104
f105
f114
f115
f116
f118
f119
f120
f121
f198
f199
g007.18
g007.33
g007.34g007.35
g007.36
g015
g019g020
g022ng023
g028
g029
g030
g031
g032
x001
x007
x011
x023r
x024
x025r
x026
x031
x040
x041
x044
x045
x052
x053x054
x055
y002
y003
tradrat5
survself
Redistribution
Anti-Secularism
Income Inequality
Public vs. Private Ownership
Competition
Hard Work
Government Role
Wealth Accumulation
Mahmoud A. El-Gamal – ERF Talk, March 23, 2014 Neoliberalism, Islam(ism) and Social Justice — slide 20 of 30
Social JusticeData Analysis
Islamism and NeoliberalismThe Many Faces of Islamism
Jordan: Inequality and Redistribution (WVS 2008)Reject independence between two variables (E035 & E224): χ2(81) = 429.6, butfail to reject conditional (on importance of free elections E226) independence: χ2(1100) = 708.52
Democracy: Tax Rich and Subsidize Poor?
Mor
e In
com
e In
equa
lity
(for i
ncen
tive)
or L
ess?
Mor
e In
equa
lity
98
76
54
32
Less
Ineq
ualit
y
Not Ess 2 34 5 6 7 8 9 Essential
15 %
10 %
27 %
Mahmoud A. El-Gamal – ERF Talk, March 23, 2014 Neoliberalism, Islam(ism) and Social Justice — slide 21 of 30
Social JusticeData Analysis
Islamism and NeoliberalismThe Many Faces of Islamism
Egypt: Conditional Independence (WVS 2008)
a001
a002
a003
a004
a005
a006
a008
a009
a104
a165
a168a
a170
a173
a189
a190
a191
a192
a193
a194a195
a196
a197
a198
b001
b002
b003
b008
b018
b019
b020
b021
b022
b023
c001
c002
c006
c009
c010
c036
c037
c038
c039
c041
c059
d001
d055
d060d078
e001
e002
e003
e004
e005
e006e012
e016
e018
e023e025
e026e027
e033
e035
e036
e037
e039
e040
e041
e069.04
e069.05
e069.08
e069.10
e069.13
e069.14
e069.15
e069.20
e069.21
e069.40
e114
e115
e116e117
e135
e136 e137
e138e139
e143
e179
e180
e182
e217
e218
e219
e220
e224
e225
e226e227
e228
e229
e230e231
e232
e233
e234
e235
e237
e238
e239
e240
e241
e247
e248
e249 e250
e251
e252
e253
e254
e255
e257
f001
f025
f028
f034
f035
f036
f037
f038
f114
f115
f116
f121
f198
g007.18
g007.33
g007.34g007.35
g007.36
g019
g020
g023
g028
g029
g030g031
g032
x001
x007
x011x023r
x024
x025r
x026x028
x031
x040
x041x044
x045
x047
x052
x053
x054
x055
y002
y003
Public vs. Private Ownership
Income InequalityGovernment Responsibility
Competition
Hard Work
Wealth Accumulation
Redistribute
Anti-Secular
Political Scale Position
Mahmoud A. El-Gamal – ERF Talk, March 23, 2014 Neoliberalism, Islam(ism) and Social Justice — slide 22 of 30
Social JusticeData Analysis
Islamism and NeoliberalismThe Many Faces of Islamism
Egypt: Inequality and Redistribution (WVS 2008)Reject independence between two variables (E036 & E224): χ2(100) = 439.7, butfail to reject conditional (on E226, free elections) independence: χ2(1100) = 752.5
Democracy: Tax Rich and Subsidize Poor?
Mor
e In
com
e In
equa
lity
(for i
ncen
tive)
or L
ess?
Mor
e In
equa
lity
98
76
54
32Le
ss In
equa
lityNot Ess2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 Essential
5 %
5 %
6 %
8 %
5 %
17 %
Mahmoud A. El-Gamal – ERF Talk, March 23, 2014 Neoliberalism, Islam(ism) and Social Justice — slide 23 of 30
Social JusticeData Analysis
Islamism and NeoliberalismThe Many Faces of Islamism
Egypt: Inequality and Private Ownership OK (WVS 2008)How Much is the Preference for "More Public" A Reaction to Corrupt Privatization?
More Private or Public Ownership?
Mor
e In
com
e In
equa
lity
(for
ince
ntiv
e) o
r Le
ss?
Mor
e In
equa
lity
98
76
54
32Le
ss In
equa
lityMore Private2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 More Public
11 %
Mahmoud A. El-Gamal – ERF Talk, March 23, 2014 Neoliberalism, Islam(ism) and Social Justice — slide 24 of 30
Social JusticeData Analysis
Islamism and NeoliberalismThe Many Faces of Islamism
Mahmoud A. El-Gamal – ERF Talk, March 23, 2014 Neoliberalism, Islam(ism) and Social Justice — slide 25 of 30
Social JusticeData Analysis
Islamism and NeoliberalismThe Many Faces of Islamism
Egypt: Anti-Secularism and Neoliberalism(Pew 2012)No Clear Relationship + Nearly 50–50 Split on Neoliberalism
Laws Should Follow the Teachings of the Quran?
Mos
t Bet
ter
Off
In F
ree−
Mar
ket E
cono
my
Des
pite
Ineq
ualit
y?C
ompl
etel
y di
sagr
eeM
ostly
dis
agre
eM
ostly
agr
eeC
ompl
etel
y ag
ree
Strictly Values & Principles Only No Influence
15 % 10 %
16 % 9 %
16 % 9 %
13 % 6 %
Mahmoud A. El-Gamal – ERF Talk, March 23, 2014 Neoliberalism, Islam(ism) and Social Justice — slide 26 of 30
Social JusticeData Analysis
Islamism and NeoliberalismThe Many Faces of Islamism
Tunisia: Anti-Secularism and Neoliberalism (Pew 2012)No Clear Relationship + Nearly 50–50 Split on Neoliberalism (& more moderate Islamism)
Laws Should Follow the Teachings of the Quran?
Mos
t Bet
ter O
ff In
Fre
e−M
arke
t Eco
nom
y D
espi
te In
equa
lity?
Com
plet
ely
disa
gree
Mos
tly d
isag
ree
Mos
tly a
gree
Com
plet
ely
agre
e
Strictly Values & Principles Only No Influence
15 %
8 % 17 %
16 %
16 %
Mahmoud A. El-Gamal – ERF Talk, March 23, 2014 Neoliberalism, Islam(ism) and Social Justice — slide 27 of 30
Social JusticeData Analysis
Islamism and NeoliberalismThe Many Faces of Islamism
Lebanon: Anti-Secularism and Neoliberalism (Pew 2012)No Clear Relationship + Mostly Favorable to Neoliberalism (& less Islamism)
Laws Should Follow the Teachings of the Quran?
Mos
t Bet
ter
Off
In F
ree−
Mar
ket E
cono
my
Des
pite
Ineq
ualit
y?C
ompl
etel
y di
sagr
eeM
ostly
dis
agre
eM
ostly
agr
eeC
ompl
etel
y ag
ree
Strictly Values & Principles Only No Influence
11 % 11 %
7 % 13 % 19 %
9 % 8 %
7 %
Mahmoud A. El-Gamal – ERF Talk, March 23, 2014 Neoliberalism, Islam(ism) and Social Justice — slide 28 of 30
Social JusticeData Analysis
Islamism and NeoliberalismThe Many Faces of Islamism
Turkey: Anti-Secularism and Neoliberalism (Pew 2012)No Clear Relationship + Mostly Favorable to Neoliberalism (& more moderate Islamism)
Laws Should Follow the Teachings of the Quran?
Mos
t Bet
ter
Off
In F
ree−
Mar
ket E
cono
my
Des
pite
Ineq
ualit
y?C
. Dis
agre
eM
ostly
Dis
agre
eM
ostly
Agr
eeC
ompl
etel
y A
gree
Strictly Values & Principles Only No
8 %
12 % 26 % 19 %
10 %
Mahmoud A. El-Gamal – ERF Talk, March 23, 2014 Neoliberalism, Islam(ism) and Social Justice — slide 29 of 30
Social JusticeData Analysis
Islamism and NeoliberalismThe Many Faces of Islamism
Concluding Remarks
There is no “Islamic Economics” or “Islamic theory of justice.”It is not clear that either is possible or necessary
There is a consistent egalitarian streak in Islamic history andthought; mostly implemented through post-hoc redistribution
Overall, Muslim societies are likely to accept neoliberal economicpolicies, with greater emphasis on and scope of redistribution
Each country’s Islamist-egalitarian nexus depends on her historyand current (political) interpretations of “justice,” which haveimplications for viability of various policy “reforms”
Mahmoud A. El-Gamal – ERF Talk, March 23, 2014 Neoliberalism, Islam(ism) and Social Justice — slide 30 of 30