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Social Justice Data Analysis Neoliberalism, Islam(ism) and Social Justice Mahmoud A. El-Gamal Rice University Department of Economics March 23, 2014 Mahmoud A. El-Gamal – ERF Talk, March 23, 2014 Neoliberalism, Islam(ism) and Social Justice — slide 0 of 30
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Neoliberalism, Islam(ism) and social justice

Nov 29, 2014

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Presentation by Mahmoud A. ElGamal (Rice University) at the ERF 20th Annual Conference - Cairo, 23 March 2014.
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Page 1: Neoliberalism, Islam(ism) and social justice

Social JusticeData Analysis

Neoliberalism, Islam(ism) and Social Justice

Mahmoud A. El-Gamal

Rice UniversityDepartment of Economics

March 23, 2014

Mahmoud A. El-Gamal – ERF Talk, March 23, 2014 Neoliberalism, Islam(ism) and Social Justice — slide 0 of 30

Page 2: Neoliberalism, Islam(ism) and social justice

Social JusticeData Analysis

Safety Nets Are Not Enough?Justice in Philosophy & Islam

Outline

1 Social JusticeSafety Nets Are Not Enough?Justice in Philosophy & Islam

2 Data AnalysisIslamism and NeoliberalismThe Many Faces of Islamism

Mahmoud A. El-Gamal – ERF Talk, March 23, 2014 Neoliberalism, Islam(ism) and Social Justice — slide 1 of 30

Page 3: Neoliberalism, Islam(ism) and social justice

Social JusticeData Analysis

Safety Nets Are Not Enough?Justice in Philosophy & Islam

Motivational Puzzle

New Washington Consensus: Utilitarianism + social safety nets⇒ Grounded in 20th-Century liberal theories of justice (Rawls + Sen)

Had been implemented de facto, if only to avoid social unrest

Puzzle: Egypt and Tunisia, apparently successful, erupted,demanding “Social Justice!”

Does “Islam”(ism) reject Rawls-type conceptions of social justice?

First clue: Revolutionaries were not poor, they were middle class!

Mahmoud A. El-Gamal – ERF Talk, March 23, 2014 Neoliberalism, Islam(ism) and Social Justice — slide 2 of 30

Page 4: Neoliberalism, Islam(ism) and social justice

Social JusticeData Analysis

Safety Nets Are Not Enough?Justice in Philosophy & Islam

The Poor Have Not Fared Too Badly in MENARatio of Top Decile and Bottom Decile Shares in GDP

1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 20105

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

Turkey

KoreaEgypt

Algeria

Morocco

Jordan

Mahmoud A. El-Gamal – ERF Talk, March 23, 2014 Neoliberalism, Islam(ism) and Social Justice — slide 3 of 30

Page 5: Neoliberalism, Islam(ism) and social justice

Social JusticeData Analysis

Safety Nets Are Not Enough?Justice in Philosophy & Islam

The Middle Classes Have Not Fared Too Well in MENARatio of Top Decile and Fifth Decile Shares in GDP

1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 20102

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

Egypt

Turkey

JordanMorocco

Algeria

Korea

Mahmoud A. El-Gamal – ERF Talk, March 23, 2014 Neoliberalism, Islam(ism) and Social Justice — slide 4 of 30

Page 6: Neoliberalism, Islam(ism) and social justice

Social JusticeData Analysis

Safety Nets Are Not Enough?Justice in Philosophy & Islam

Outline

1 Social JusticeSafety Nets Are Not Enough?Justice in Philosophy & Islam

2 Data AnalysisIslamism and NeoliberalismThe Many Faces of Islamism

Mahmoud A. El-Gamal – ERF Talk, March 23, 2014 Neoliberalism, Islam(ism) and Social Justice — slide 5 of 30

Page 7: Neoliberalism, Islam(ism) and social justice

Social JusticeData Analysis

Safety Nets Are Not Enough?Justice in Philosophy & Islam

Aristotle on Distributive Justice

Book V of Nicomachean Ethics:

. . . and the just here is a middle term, whereas the unjust iswhat is contrary to the proportion, for the proportion is amiddle term and the just is a proportion. Themathematicians call this sort of proportion “geometric.”

. . . as a farmer stands in relation to a shoemaker, so the workof the shoemaker stands in relation to that of the farmer. Butone must not bring the works into the figure of theproportion after they have been exchanged . . .

Second clue: Were the middle classes not getting their “fair share?”

Mahmoud A. El-Gamal – ERF Talk, March 23, 2014 Neoliberalism, Islam(ism) and Social Justice — slide 6 of 30

Page 8: Neoliberalism, Islam(ism) and social justice

Social JusticeData Analysis

Safety Nets Are Not Enough?Justice in Philosophy & Islam

Aristotle, Averroes, . . . Pareto

Aristotle proposed a labor theory of value for initial exchange only

Ibn Rushd (Bidayat Al-Mujtahid ):

Thus, the ratio of exchanged quantities will be determinedby the ratio of monetary values of different goods. . .

As for [fungible] goods measured by volume or weight,equity requires equality, since they are relatively homogenous. . . justice in this case is achieved by equating volume orweight, since the benefits are very similar.

Is it too much to read Pareto efficiency in this “benefit” analysis?

1/quantity ratio = price ratio = ratio of [marginal?] benefits

No distributive justice considerations (Aristotelian merit)?

Mahmoud A. El-Gamal – ERF Talk, March 23, 2014 Neoliberalism, Islam(ism) and Social Justice — slide 7 of 30

Page 9: Neoliberalism, Islam(ism) and social justice

Social JusticeData Analysis

Safety Nets Are Not Enough?Justice in Philosophy & Islam

Aristotle, Averroes, . . . Pareto

Aristotle proposed a labor theory of value for initial exchange only

Ibn Rushd (Bidayat Al-Mujtahid ):

Thus, the ratio of exchanged quantities will be determinedby the ratio of monetary values of different goods. . .

As for [fungible] goods measured by volume or weight,equity requires equality, since they are relatively homogenous. . . justice in this case is achieved by equating volume orweight, since the benefits are very similar.

Is it too much to read Pareto efficiency in this “benefit” analysis?

1/quantity ratio = price ratio = ratio of [marginal?] benefits

No distributive justice considerations (Aristotelian merit)?

Mahmoud A. El-Gamal – ERF Talk, March 23, 2014 Neoliberalism, Islam(ism) and Social Justice — slide 7 of 30

Page 10: Neoliberalism, Islam(ism) and social justice

Social JusticeData Analysis

Safety Nets Are Not Enough?Justice in Philosophy & Islam

The Primacy of Law I: Islamic Law and Economics

Posner:Often, the true grounds of legal decision are concealed ratherthan illuminated by the characteristic rhetoric of opinions.Indeed, legal education consists primarily of learning to digbeneath the rhetorical surface to find those grounds, many ofwhich may turn out to have an economic character

Islamic jurisprudence has been a common law system (Rosen),but many Islamists view it as a civil code:⇒ Legal arbitrage opportunities, such as so-called “Islamic finance”⇒ Circumvents ancient (efficiency-enhancing) regulations

Ibn Rushd and Ibn Khaldun sought social justice in “legal justice”

There is no “Islamic theory of justice” (is one needed?)

Mahmoud A. El-Gamal – ERF Talk, March 23, 2014 Neoliberalism, Islam(ism) and Social Justice — slide 8 of 30

Page 11: Neoliberalism, Islam(ism) and social justice

Social JusticeData Analysis

Safety Nets Are Not Enough?Justice in Philosophy & Islam

The Primacy of Law I: Islamic Law and Economics

Posner:Often, the true grounds of legal decision are concealed ratherthan illuminated by the characteristic rhetoric of opinions.Indeed, legal education consists primarily of learning to digbeneath the rhetorical surface to find those grounds, many ofwhich may turn out to have an economic character

Islamic jurisprudence has been a common law system (Rosen),but many Islamists view it as a civil code:⇒ Legal arbitrage opportunities, such as so-called “Islamic finance”⇒ Circumvents ancient (efficiency-enhancing) regulations

Ibn Rushd and Ibn Khaldun sought social justice in “legal justice”

There is no “Islamic theory of justice” (is one needed?)

Mahmoud A. El-Gamal – ERF Talk, March 23, 2014 Neoliberalism, Islam(ism) and Social Justice — slide 8 of 30

Page 12: Neoliberalism, Islam(ism) and social justice

Social JusticeData Analysis

Safety Nets Are Not Enough?Justice in Philosophy & Islam

The Primacy of Law I: Islamic Law and Economics

Posner:Often, the true grounds of legal decision are concealed ratherthan illuminated by the characteristic rhetoric of opinions.Indeed, legal education consists primarily of learning to digbeneath the rhetorical surface to find those grounds, many ofwhich may turn out to have an economic character

Islamic jurisprudence has been a common law system (Rosen),but many Islamists view it as a civil code:⇒ Legal arbitrage opportunities, such as so-called “Islamic finance”⇒ Circumvents ancient (efficiency-enhancing) regulations

Ibn Rushd and Ibn Khaldun sought social justice in “legal justice”

There is no “Islamic theory of justice” (is one needed?)

Mahmoud A. El-Gamal – ERF Talk, March 23, 2014 Neoliberalism, Islam(ism) and Social Justice — slide 8 of 30

Page 13: Neoliberalism, Islam(ism) and social justice

Social JusticeData Analysis

Safety Nets Are Not Enough?Justice in Philosophy & Islam

Primacy of Law II: Modern Islamic Interpretations of “Justice”

Socialist-leaning interpretations: (Al-Siba

˘

ı; El-Ghazalı; . . . )Public ownership of basic necessities (water, pastures, fire) + someexpropriation extrapolated to nationalization of essential industriesMore equitable distribution (Abu-Bakr,

˘

Ali) preferred over unequaldistribution by merit (

˘

Umar,

˘

Uthman); + (T. Hussein, S. Qut.b,...)Some price fixing justified by anti-monopoly rulings

Libertarian-leaning interpretations: (jurists & most intellectuals)Same basic rules for initial acquisition of property (fallow land, etc.)Broad permission of transfer of property by mutual consentPublic ownership is an exception; expropriation was punishmentAccepting inequality in human and physical capital endowmentsReject price fixing, absent monopoly or need

Many emphasized former 1940s–70s, most emphasized lattermid-1970s onwards, all claiming to define a “middle way”

Mahmoud A. El-Gamal – ERF Talk, March 23, 2014 Neoliberalism, Islam(ism) and Social Justice — slide 9 of 30

Page 14: Neoliberalism, Islam(ism) and social justice

Social JusticeData Analysis

Safety Nets Are Not Enough?Justice in Philosophy & Islam

Primacy of Law II: Modern Islamic Interpretations of “Justice”

Socialist-leaning interpretations: (Al-Siba

˘

ı; El-Ghazalı; . . . )Public ownership of basic necessities (water, pastures, fire) + someexpropriation extrapolated to nationalization of essential industriesMore equitable distribution (Abu-Bakr,

˘

Ali) preferred over unequaldistribution by merit (

˘

Umar,

˘

Uthman); + (T. Hussein, S. Qut.b,...)Some price fixing justified by anti-monopoly rulings

Libertarian-leaning interpretations: (jurists & most intellectuals)Same basic rules for initial acquisition of property (fallow land, etc.)Broad permission of transfer of property by mutual consentPublic ownership is an exception; expropriation was punishmentAccepting inequality in human and physical capital endowmentsReject price fixing, absent monopoly or need

Many emphasized former 1940s–70s, most emphasized lattermid-1970s onwards, all claiming to define a “middle way”

Mahmoud A. El-Gamal – ERF Talk, March 23, 2014 Neoliberalism, Islam(ism) and Social Justice — slide 9 of 30

Page 15: Neoliberalism, Islam(ism) and social justice

Social JusticeData Analysis

Safety Nets Are Not Enough?Justice in Philosophy & Islam

Primacy of Law II: Modern Islamic Interpretations of “Justice”

Socialist-leaning interpretations: (Al-Siba

˘

ı; El-Ghazalı; . . . )Public ownership of basic necessities (water, pastures, fire) + someexpropriation extrapolated to nationalization of essential industriesMore equitable distribution (Abu-Bakr,

˘

Ali) preferred over unequaldistribution by merit (

˘

Umar,

˘

Uthman); + (T. Hussein, S. Qut.b,...)Some price fixing justified by anti-monopoly rulings

Libertarian-leaning interpretations: (jurists & most intellectuals)Same basic rules for initial acquisition of property (fallow land, etc.)Broad permission of transfer of property by mutual consentPublic ownership is an exception; expropriation was punishmentAccepting inequality in human and physical capital endowmentsReject price fixing, absent monopoly or need

Many emphasized former 1940s–70s, most emphasized lattermid-1970s onwards, all claiming to define a “middle way”

Mahmoud A. El-Gamal – ERF Talk, March 23, 2014 Neoliberalism, Islam(ism) and Social Justice — slide 9 of 30

Page 16: Neoliberalism, Islam(ism) and social justice

Social JusticeData Analysis

Islamism and NeoliberalismThe Many Faces of Islamism

Outline

1 Social JusticeSafety Nets Are Not Enough?Justice in Philosophy & Islam

2 Data AnalysisIslamism and NeoliberalismThe Many Faces of Islamism

Mahmoud A. El-Gamal – ERF Talk, March 23, 2014 Neoliberalism, Islam(ism) and Social Justice — slide 10 of 30

Page 17: Neoliberalism, Islam(ism) and social justice

Social JusticeData Analysis

Islamism and NeoliberalismThe Many Faces of Islamism

Neoliberalism – Strong Support Countries (Pew 2012)Most Better Off In Free−Market Economy Despite Inequality?

Coun

tryFr

ance

Pola

ndIta

lyLe

bano

nBr

itain

Indi

aG

erm

any

Turk

eyU

nite

d St

ates

Braz

ilC

hina

Completely agree Mostly agree Mostly disagree Disagree

58 %

52 %

49 %

57 %

56 %

39 %

53 %

39 %

50 %

52 %

46 %

Mahmoud A. El-Gamal – ERF Talk, March 23, 2014 Neoliberalism, Islam(ism) and Social Justice — slide 11 of 30

Page 18: Neoliberalism, Islam(ism) and social justice

Social JusticeData Analysis

Islamism and NeoliberalismThe Many Faces of Islamism

Neoliberalism – Mild to Weak Support CountriesMost Better Off In Free−Market Economy Despite Inequality?

Coun

tryM

exic

oJa

pan

Jord

anG

reec

eSp

ain

Cze

ch R

epub

licEg

ypt

Tuni

sia

Rus

sia

Paki

stan

Completely agree Mostly agree Mostly disagree Completely disagree

39 % 26 %

42 % 32 %

30 %

26 % 26 % 28 %

40 % 34 %

37 % 38 %

36 % 33 %

32 % 35 %

33 % 48 %

43 %

Mahmoud A. El-Gamal – ERF Talk, March 23, 2014 Neoliberalism, Islam(ism) and Social Justice — slide 12 of 30

Page 19: Neoliberalism, Islam(ism) and social justice

Social JusticeData Analysis

Islamism and NeoliberalismThe Many Faces of Islamism

Anti-Secularism (Pew 2012) – Laws Should Follow Qur˘

an?

Laws Should Follow the Teachings of the Quran?

Cou

ntry

Leba

non

Turk

eyTu

nisi

aE

gypt

Jord

anP

akis

tan

Strictly Principles No

84 %

73 % 26 %

61 % 33 %

65 %

51 % 30 %

38 % 45 %

Mahmoud A. El-Gamal – ERF Talk, March 23, 2014 Neoliberalism, Islam(ism) and Social Justice — slide 13 of 30

Page 20: Neoliberalism, Islam(ism) and social justice

Social JusticeData Analysis

Islamism and NeoliberalismThe Many Faces of Islamism

Anti-Secularism (WVS, Waves 1–5) – Only “Sharı

˘

a” Law?Only Laws of the Shari‘a

Cou

ntry

Ban

glIn

done

sia

Iraq

Nig

eria

Iran

Pak

ista

nA

lger

iaJo

rdan

Egy

ptS

audi

S. Agree Agree Neutral DisS. Dis

69 %

47 % 34 %

54 %

37 % 35 %

36 % 31 %

32 %

41 %

31 %

36 %

Mahmoud A. El-Gamal – ERF Talk, March 23, 2014 Neoliberalism, Islam(ism) and Social Justice — slide 14 of 30

Page 21: Neoliberalism, Islam(ism) and social justice

Social JusticeData Analysis

Islamism and NeoliberalismThe Many Faces of Islamism

Outline

1 Social JusticeSafety Nets Are Not Enough?Justice in Philosophy & Islam

2 Data AnalysisIslamism and NeoliberalismThe Many Faces of Islamism

Mahmoud A. El-Gamal – ERF Talk, March 23, 2014 Neoliberalism, Islam(ism) and Social Justice — slide 15 of 30

Page 22: Neoliberalism, Islam(ism) and social justice

Social JusticeData Analysis

Islamism and NeoliberalismThe Many Faces of Islamism

Jordan: Anti-Secularism & Egalitarianism (Pew 2012)

Laws Should Follow the Teachings of the Quran?

Dem

ocra

cy: I

mpo

rtan

t To

Hav

e S

mal

l Inc

ome

Diff

eren

ces

Bet

wee

n R

ich

and

Poo

r?N

otNot

too

imp

Som

ewha

t Im

port

ant

Ver

y Im

port

ant

Strictly Principles No

34 % 7 %

33 % 15 %

Mahmoud A. El-Gamal – ERF Talk, March 23, 2014 Neoliberalism, Islam(ism) and Social Justice — slide 16 of 30

Page 23: Neoliberalism, Islam(ism) and social justice

Social JusticeData Analysis

Islamism and NeoliberalismThe Many Faces of Islamism

Jordan: Anti-Secularism vs. Neoliberalism (Pew 2012)

Laws Should Follow the Teachings of the Quran?

Mos

t Bet

ter

Off

In F

ree−

Mar

ket E

cono

my

Des

pite

Ineq

ualit

y?C

ompl

etel

y di

sagr

eeM

ostly

dis

agre

eM

ostly

agr

eeC

ompl

etel

y ag

ree

Strictly Values & Principles OnlyNo Influence

9 %

22 % 9 %

25 % 10 %

17 %

Mahmoud A. El-Gamal – ERF Talk, March 23, 2014 Neoliberalism, Islam(ism) and Social Justice — slide 17 of 30

Page 24: Neoliberalism, Islam(ism) and social justice

Social JusticeData Analysis

Islamism and NeoliberalismThe Many Faces of Islamism

Jordan: Anti-Secualrism & Redistribution (WVS 2008)

Democracy = Tax Rich, Subsidize Poor

Dem

ocra

cy =

Rel

igio

us A

utho

ritie

s In

terp

ret t

he L

awes

sent

ial

98

76

54

32

~ess

~ess 23 4 5 6 7 8 9 essential

6 %

42 %

Mahmoud A. El-Gamal – ERF Talk, March 23, 2014 Neoliberalism, Islam(ism) and Social Justice — slide 18 of 30

Page 25: Neoliberalism, Islam(ism) and social justice

Social JusticeData Analysis

Islamism and NeoliberalismThe Many Faces of Islamism

Jordan: Inequality (ok) & Private/Public (mixed) (WVS 2008)Strong Immediate Relationship, but Mixed

More Private or Public Ownership?

Mor

e In

com

e In

equa

lity

(for i

ncen

tive)

or L

ess?

Mor

e In

equa

lity

98

76

54

32

Less

Ineq

ualit

y

More Private 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 More Public

11 %

5 %

12 % 17 %

Mahmoud A. El-Gamal – ERF Talk, March 23, 2014 Neoliberalism, Islam(ism) and Social Justice — slide 19 of 30

Page 26: Neoliberalism, Islam(ism) and social justice

Social JusticeData Analysis

Islamism and NeoliberalismThe Many Faces of Islamism

Jordan: Conditional Independence (WVS 2008)Estimated Bayesian Network (formal statistical test of conditional independence on next slide)

a001

a002

a003

a004

a005 a006

a008

a009

a104 a106a124.02

a124.03

a124.06

a124.07

a124.08

a124.09

a124.12

a124.14

a124.42

a124.43

a165

a168a

a170a173

a189

a190

a191

a192

a193

a194

a195

a196a197

a198

b001

b002

b003

b008

b018

b019

b020

b021

b022

b023

c001

c002

c006

c009

c010

c036

c037

c038 c039

c041

c059

d001

d022

d055

d060d078

e001

e002

e003

e004

e005

e006

e012

e016

e018

e023

e025

e025b

e026

e026b

e027

e033

e035

e036

e037

e039

e040

e041

e069.01

e069.02

e069.03

e069.04

e069.05

e069.06

e069.07

e069.08

e069.10

e069.11

e069.12

e069.13

e069.14

e069.15e069.17

e069.20

e069.40

e069.51

e114

e115e116

e117

e124

e135

e136

e137

e138

e139

e143

e217

e218

e219

e220

e221b

e224

e225

e226

e227

e228

e229

e230

e231

e232

e233

e234

e235

e236

e237

e238

e239

e240

e241

e247

e248

e249

e250e251

e252

e253

e254

e255

f001

f025

f028

f034

f035

f036

f037

f038

f102

f103 f104

f105

f114

f115

f116

f118

f119

f120

f121

f198

f199

g007.18

g007.33

g007.34g007.35

g007.36

g015

g019g020

g022ng023

g028

g029

g030

g031

g032

x001

x007

x011

x023r

x024

x025r

x026

x031

x040

x041

x044

x045

x052

x053x054

x055

y002

y003

tradrat5

survself

Redistribution

Anti-Secularism

Income Inequality

Public vs. Private Ownership

Competition

Hard Work

Government Role

Wealth Accumulation

Mahmoud A. El-Gamal – ERF Talk, March 23, 2014 Neoliberalism, Islam(ism) and Social Justice — slide 20 of 30

Page 27: Neoliberalism, Islam(ism) and social justice

Social JusticeData Analysis

Islamism and NeoliberalismThe Many Faces of Islamism

Jordan: Inequality and Redistribution (WVS 2008)Reject independence between two variables (E035 & E224): χ2(81) = 429.6, butfail to reject conditional (on importance of free elections E226) independence: χ2(1100) = 708.52

Democracy: Tax Rich and Subsidize Poor?

Mor

e In

com

e In

equa

lity

(for i

ncen

tive)

or L

ess?

Mor

e In

equa

lity

98

76

54

32

Less

Ineq

ualit

y

Not Ess 2 34 5 6 7 8 9 Essential

15 %

10 %

27 %

Mahmoud A. El-Gamal – ERF Talk, March 23, 2014 Neoliberalism, Islam(ism) and Social Justice — slide 21 of 30

Page 28: Neoliberalism, Islam(ism) and social justice

Social JusticeData Analysis

Islamism and NeoliberalismThe Many Faces of Islamism

Egypt: Conditional Independence (WVS 2008)

a001

a002

a003

a004

a005

a006

a008

a009

a104

a165

a168a

a170

a173

a189

a190

a191

a192

a193

a194a195

a196

a197

a198

b001

b002

b003

b008

b018

b019

b020

b021

b022

b023

c001

c002

c006

c009

c010

c036

c037

c038

c039

c041

c059

d001

d055

d060d078

e001

e002

e003

e004

e005

e006e012

e016

e018

e023e025

e026e027

e033

e035

e036

e037

e039

e040

e041

e069.04

e069.05

e069.08

e069.10

e069.13

e069.14

e069.15

e069.20

e069.21

e069.40

e114

e115

e116e117

e135

e136 e137

e138e139

e143

e179

e180

e182

e217

e218

e219

e220

e224

e225

e226e227

e228

e229

e230e231

e232

e233

e234

e235

e237

e238

e239

e240

e241

e247

e248

e249 e250

e251

e252

e253

e254

e255

e257

f001

f025

f028

f034

f035

f036

f037

f038

f114

f115

f116

f121

f198

g007.18

g007.33

g007.34g007.35

g007.36

g019

g020

g023

g028

g029

g030g031

g032

x001

x007

x011x023r

x024

x025r

x026x028

x031

x040

x041x044

x045

x047

x052

x053

x054

x055

y002

y003

Public vs. Private Ownership

Income InequalityGovernment Responsibility

Competition

Hard Work

Wealth Accumulation

Redistribute

Anti-Secular

Political Scale Position

Mahmoud A. El-Gamal – ERF Talk, March 23, 2014 Neoliberalism, Islam(ism) and Social Justice — slide 22 of 30

Page 29: Neoliberalism, Islam(ism) and social justice

Social JusticeData Analysis

Islamism and NeoliberalismThe Many Faces of Islamism

Egypt: Inequality and Redistribution (WVS 2008)Reject independence between two variables (E036 & E224): χ2(100) = 439.7, butfail to reject conditional (on E226, free elections) independence: χ2(1100) = 752.5

Democracy: Tax Rich and Subsidize Poor?

Mor

e In

com

e In

equa

lity

(for i

ncen

tive)

or L

ess?

Mor

e In

equa

lity

98

76

54

32Le

ss In

equa

lityNot Ess2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 Essential

5 %

5 %

6 %

8 %

5 %

17 %

Mahmoud A. El-Gamal – ERF Talk, March 23, 2014 Neoliberalism, Islam(ism) and Social Justice — slide 23 of 30

Page 30: Neoliberalism, Islam(ism) and social justice

Social JusticeData Analysis

Islamism and NeoliberalismThe Many Faces of Islamism

Egypt: Inequality and Private Ownership OK (WVS 2008)How Much is the Preference for "More Public" A Reaction to Corrupt Privatization?

More Private or Public Ownership?

Mor

e In

com

e In

equa

lity

(for

ince

ntiv

e) o

r Le

ss?

Mor

e In

equa

lity

98

76

54

32Le

ss In

equa

lityMore Private2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 More Public

11 %

Mahmoud A. El-Gamal – ERF Talk, March 23, 2014 Neoliberalism, Islam(ism) and Social Justice — slide 24 of 30

Page 31: Neoliberalism, Islam(ism) and social justice

Social JusticeData Analysis

Islamism and NeoliberalismThe Many Faces of Islamism

Egypt: . . . Despite Strong Anti-Secularism and RedistributiveDrive (WVS 2008)

Democracy = Religious Authorities Interpret Law

Dem

ocra

cy =

Tax

Ric

h, S

ubsi

dize

Poo

res

sent

ial

98

76

54

32~

ess

~ess 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 essential

39 %

Mahmoud A. El-Gamal – ERF Talk, March 23, 2014 Neoliberalism, Islam(ism) and Social Justice — slide 25 of 30

Page 32: Neoliberalism, Islam(ism) and social justice

Social JusticeData Analysis

Islamism and NeoliberalismThe Many Faces of Islamism

Egypt: Anti-Secularism and Neoliberalism(Pew 2012)No Clear Relationship + Nearly 50–50 Split on Neoliberalism

Laws Should Follow the Teachings of the Quran?

Mos

t Bet

ter

Off

In F

ree−

Mar

ket E

cono

my

Des

pite

Ineq

ualit

y?C

ompl

etel

y di

sagr

eeM

ostly

dis

agre

eM

ostly

agr

eeC

ompl

etel

y ag

ree

Strictly Values & Principles Only No Influence

15 % 10 %

16 % 9 %

16 % 9 %

13 % 6 %

Mahmoud A. El-Gamal – ERF Talk, March 23, 2014 Neoliberalism, Islam(ism) and Social Justice — slide 26 of 30

Page 33: Neoliberalism, Islam(ism) and social justice

Social JusticeData Analysis

Islamism and NeoliberalismThe Many Faces of Islamism

Tunisia: Anti-Secularism and Neoliberalism (Pew 2012)No Clear Relationship + Nearly 50–50 Split on Neoliberalism (& more moderate Islamism)

Laws Should Follow the Teachings of the Quran?

Mos

t Bet

ter O

ff In

Fre

e−M

arke

t Eco

nom

y D

espi

te In

equa

lity?

Com

plet

ely

disa

gree

Mos

tly d

isag

ree

Mos

tly a

gree

Com

plet

ely

agre

e

Strictly Values & Principles Only No Influence

15 %

8 % 17 %

16 %

16 %

Mahmoud A. El-Gamal – ERF Talk, March 23, 2014 Neoliberalism, Islam(ism) and Social Justice — slide 27 of 30

Page 34: Neoliberalism, Islam(ism) and social justice

Social JusticeData Analysis

Islamism and NeoliberalismThe Many Faces of Islamism

Lebanon: Anti-Secularism and Neoliberalism (Pew 2012)No Clear Relationship + Mostly Favorable to Neoliberalism (& less Islamism)

Laws Should Follow the Teachings of the Quran?

Mos

t Bet

ter

Off

In F

ree−

Mar

ket E

cono

my

Des

pite

Ineq

ualit

y?C

ompl

etel

y di

sagr

eeM

ostly

dis

agre

eM

ostly

agr

eeC

ompl

etel

y ag

ree

Strictly Values & Principles Only No Influence

11 % 11 %

7 % 13 % 19 %

9 % 8 %

7 %

Mahmoud A. El-Gamal – ERF Talk, March 23, 2014 Neoliberalism, Islam(ism) and Social Justice — slide 28 of 30

Page 35: Neoliberalism, Islam(ism) and social justice

Social JusticeData Analysis

Islamism and NeoliberalismThe Many Faces of Islamism

Turkey: Anti-Secularism and Neoliberalism (Pew 2012)No Clear Relationship + Mostly Favorable to Neoliberalism (& more moderate Islamism)

Laws Should Follow the Teachings of the Quran?

Mos

t Bet

ter

Off

In F

ree−

Mar

ket E

cono

my

Des

pite

Ineq

ualit

y?C

. Dis

agre

eM

ostly

Dis

agre

eM

ostly

Agr

eeC

ompl

etel

y A

gree

Strictly Values & Principles Only No

8 %

12 % 26 % 19 %

10 %

Mahmoud A. El-Gamal – ERF Talk, March 23, 2014 Neoliberalism, Islam(ism) and Social Justice — slide 29 of 30

Page 36: Neoliberalism, Islam(ism) and social justice

Social JusticeData Analysis

Islamism and NeoliberalismThe Many Faces of Islamism

Concluding Remarks

There is no “Islamic Economics” or “Islamic theory of justice.”It is not clear that either is possible or necessary

There is a consistent egalitarian streak in Islamic history andthought; mostly implemented through post-hoc redistribution

Overall, Muslim societies are likely to accept neoliberal economicpolicies, with greater emphasis on and scope of redistribution

Each country’s Islamist-egalitarian nexus depends on her historyand current (political) interpretations of “justice,” which haveimplications for viability of various policy “reforms”

Mahmoud A. El-Gamal – ERF Talk, March 23, 2014 Neoliberalism, Islam(ism) and Social Justice — slide 30 of 30