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1
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NEERA’s successes to date
• Building Capacity • Research ↔ Practice Projects
–increase in investment –direct impact
• Indicator Tool = Action
2
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Background on On-Track Indicator Collaboration
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Project Goals• Short term:
– Predictions of post-secondary persistence– Aspects of the student experience that feed
predictions • Medium term:
– Thresholds in formula and student experiences• Long term:
– Update for more recent students and policies– Continue to support data use and refine
implementation
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Exploring end of 12th grade progress is about understanding what we can learn at grades 6–9.
• 2017–18: Figure out what was feasible and what we could measure well. Pull data together.
• Current: Work backward from the end of 12thgrade so we understand where to dig in lower grades.
• By Feb.: Determine final predictions for earlier grade levels.
• By June: Determine thresholds for addressing students’ needs.
• Beyond: Test predictions with new circumstances and post-secondary tiers.
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Progress
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• Agreed on outcome• Finalized data sharing agreement• Hired staff• Developed project plan• Transferred initial data securely• Cleaned and aligned data across districts• Preliminary data analysis• Update on Progress to Boards- May 21st, 2018• Additional data transfers• Ongoing data analysis
• Further HS-college connections
• Testing findings
• Explore MS-HS connections
• Identify thresholds for usage
• Explore/Identify future directions and earlier grade analysis
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We hope to develop models, then set thresholds for predicting post-secondary success from middle and
high school, particularly 8th and 9th grade.
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End goal:
October 2018:
8 9 10 11
EarlyChildhood
K 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 12
Post SecondaryElementary School Middle School High School
8 9 10 11
EarlyChildhood
K 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 12
Post SecondaryElementary School Middle School High School
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We explore factors that are both trackable and actionable to predict outcomes and address
students’ needs early.
Examples of factors from current research:• Grades• Attendance• Standardized Test Scores• Discipline• Course Taking Patterns• Etc.
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ACT: The majority of ETHS students score above
ACT’s college readiness benchmarks.
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Perc
enta
ge o
f Stu
dent
s Pe
rsis
ting
in P
ost-
Seco
ndar
y
0–12–3
4–56–7
8–910–11 22–23
12–1314–15
16–1718–19
20–2126–27
24–2530–31
28–2934–35
32–33 36
ACT English Scores
50% of ETHS StudentsACT College Readiness Benchmark
10 students
100 students
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10
ACT: The majority of ETHS students score above
ACT’s college readiness benchmarks.
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Perc
enta
ge o
f Stu
dent
s Pe
rsis
ting
in P
ost-
Seco
ndar
y
0–12–3
4–56–7
8–910–11 22–23
12–1314–15
16–1718–19
20–2126–27
24–2530–31
28–2934–35
32–33 36 40
ACT English Scores
50% of ETHS StudentsACT College Readiness Benchmark
To consider at earlier grades:• What factors in 6th–8th
grades are most predictive for ETHS students?
10 students
100 students
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Attendance: Persistence in post-secondary levels off among
students with low absenteeism in 9th grade.
11
0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%
100%
Perc
enta
ge o
f Stu
dent
s Pe
rsis
ting
in P
ost-S
econ
dary
Number of Days Absent in 9th Grade
0–1 2–3 4–5 6–7 8–9 10–11 22+12–1314–1516–1718–19 20–21
10 students 100 students
ETHS threshold
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Attendance: Persistence in post-secondary levels off among
students with low absenteeism in 9th grade.
12
0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%
100%
Perc
enta
ge o
f Stu
dent
s Pe
rsis
ting
in P
ost-S
econ
dary
Number of Days Absent in 9th Grade
0–1 2–3 4–5 6–7 8–9 10–11 22+12–1314–1516–1718–19 20–21
10 students 100 students
To consider at earlier grades:• What factors in 6th–8th grades
predict HS attendance?
ETHS threshold
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AP Test Taking: The percentage of students who persist in post
secondary levels off around taking 3 or 4 AP tests.
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0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%
100%
-1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11
Perc
enta
ge o
f Stu
dent
s Pe
rsis
ting
in P
ost-S
econ
dary
Number of AP Tests Taken+
10 students 100 students
Prediction, not prescription:• This research does not suggest
that everyone should take 4• This is about what we can and
should track
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AP Test Taking: The percentage of students who persist in post
secondary levels off around taking 3 or 4 AP tests.
14
+0%
10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%
100%
-1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11
Perc
enta
ge o
f Stu
dent
s Pe
rsis
ting
in P
ost-S
econ
dary
Number of AP Tests Taken+
10 students 100 students
To consider at earlier grades:• Are students prepared to take
AP courses?• Do they have access?• Do they have opportunity?• Do they have knowledge?
• What factors in 6th–9th grades predict AP test-taking?
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Grades: Grades are highly predictive.
15
-10%0%
10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%
100%110%
0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5
Perc
enta
ge o
f Stu
dent
s Pe
rsis
ting
in P
ost-S
econ
dary
Unweighted GPA10 students 100 students
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Grades: Grades are highly predictive.
16
-10%0%
10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%
100%110%
0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5
Perc
enta
ge o
f Stu
dent
s Pe
rsis
ting
in P
ost-S
econ
dary
Unweighted GPA10 students 100 students
To consider at earlier grades:• What factors in 6th–9th grades
predict final GPAs?• GPA overall vs certain
classes?
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We hope to develop models, then set thresholds for predicting post-secondary success from middle and
high school, particularly 8th and 9th grade.
17
End goal:
October 2018:
8 9 10 11
EarlyChildhood
K 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 12
Post SecondaryElementary School Middle School High School
8 9 10 11
EarlyChildhood
K 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 12
Post SecondaryElementary School Middle School High School
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Progress Summary
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NEERA’s successes to date
• Building Capacity • Research ↔ Practice Projects
–increase in investment –direct impact
• Indicator Tool = Action
19
Slide Number 1Slide Number 2NEERA’s successes to dateBackground on On-Track Indicator CollaborationProject GoalsExploring end of 12th grade progress is about understanding what we can learn at grades 6–9.ProgressWe hope to develop models, then set thresholds for predicting post-secondary success from middle and high school, particularly 8th and 9th grade.We explore factors that are both trackable and actionable to predict outcomes and address students’ needs early.Slide Number 10Slide Number 11Attendance: �Persistence in post-secondary levels off among students with low absenteeism in 9th grade. Attendance: �Persistence in post-secondary levels off among students with low absenteeism in 9th grade. AP Test Taking: �The percentage of students who persist in post secondary levels off around taking 3 or 4 AP tests. AP Test Taking: �The percentage of students who persist in post secondary levels off around taking 3 or 4 AP tests. Grades: �Grades are highly predictive.Grades: �Grades are highly predictive.We hope to develop models, then set thresholds for predicting post-secondary success from middle and high school, particularly 8th and 9th grade.Progress SummaryNEERA’s successes to date
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