NEEDS Forum 2 - Energy Supply Security – Kraków 5-6 July 2007 1 Perspectives of clean coal technologies in Poland Wojciech Suwala AGH-University of Science.

1NEEDS Forum 2 - Energy Supply Security – Kraków 5-6 July 2007

Perspectives of clean coal technologies in Poland

Wojciech Suwala

AGH-University of Science and Technology

Faculty of Fuels and Energy


Presentation plan

• Basic facts on Polish energy system

• Model of power generation

• Power generation technologies 2002-2020

• Decomposition of CO2 emissions reduction

• Conclusions


Basic facts on Polish energy system

• 70% of TPES from coal

• 94% of electricity and heat generated form hard coal and lignite


Basic facts on Polish energy system- challenges

• LCP directive - derogations

• EU accession treaty – country limits

• ETS

– 280 Mt CO2 required

– 208 Mt CO2 assigned

• Renewables obligation


Model of power generation - 1

• Bottom-up model

• Emissions constraints (SO2, NOx, PM)

• Carbon tax to mitigate CO2 emissions

• 100 coal grades

• Variable demands


Model of power generation -2

• Partial equilibrium

• Objective function: consumers + producers surplus MAX

• Time horizon: 2002-2020

• Linear programming GAMS/CPLEX


Model of power generationscenarios 1

SO2, NOx, PM

emissions reduction as in EU Accession Treaty for the whole country (bubble)

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

000 t

/year

SO2

NOX

PM


Model of power generationscenarios 2

Renewables obligation:

9% of electricity production from 2010

CO2 - carbon tax: 0 - 30 €/t


Resultstechnologies mix, carbon tax 0 €/t CO2

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

2002 2003 2004 2005 2010 2015 2020

PJ/

year

Nuclear

Renewables

Natural gas

Traditionallignite

Clean coal

Traditionalcoal


Results technologies mix, carbon tax 25 €/t CO2

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

2002 2003 2004 2005 2010 2015 2020

PJ/

year

Nuclear

Renewables

Natural gas

Traditionallignite

Clean coal

Traditionalcoal

c


Results technologies mix, 2020

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

0 5 10 15 20 22 25 27 30

Carbon tax €/t CO2

PJ/

y

Nuclear

Renewables

Clean coal

Traditional coal

Coal


Results technologies mix, 2020

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

0 5 10 15 20 22 25 27 30

Carbon tax €/t CO2

Nuclear

Renewables

Clean coal

Traditional coal


Existing lignite public power plants - life

extension3%

New wind turbine3%

Existing hydro power plants

3%

New nuclear power plant15%

Existing hard coal autoproducers CHP

plants - plain modernization + gas

turbine8%

CHP hard coal public plants - plain

modernization + gas turbine

9%

Existing hard coal public power plants - life

extension7%

New geothermal heat plants

5%

Existing hard coal CHP public plants - life

extension47%

Technologies in 2020, carbon tax 25 €/t CO2



extension3%

New wind turbine3%


3%




turbine8%



9%


extension7%


5%


extension47%


Existing hard coal CHP public plants -

life extension

47%



extension3%

New wind turbine3%


3%




turbine8%



9%


extension7%


5%


extension47%


New nuclear

15%



extension3%

New wind turbine3%


3%




turbine8%



9%


extension7%


5%


extension47%


3%

3%

3%

5%

8%

9%

7%


Results CO2 emissions for carbon tax 0 – 30 €/t CO2

120

140

160

180

200

220

240

2002 2003 2004 2005 2010 2015 2020

CO

2 em

issi

on

s M

t

0

10

20

25

30


Decomposition principleShapley/Sun method

X1

X2

ΔX1

ΔX2

X10

X20

Z=X1*X2

Δ Z(X1)= ΔX1*X20+1/2* ΔX1* ΔX2

Δ Z(X2)= ΔX2*X10+1/2* ΔX1* ΔX2


Decomposition identity

demanddemandenergy

primary

energy

primaryemissions

potential

emissions

potentialemissions

emissions ***



demanddemandenergy

primary

energy

primaryemissions

potential

emissions

potentialemissions

emissions ***

process factor – related to:

• physical / chemical properties of the technologies

• fuel quality adjustment



demanddemandenergy

primary

energy

primaryemissions

potential

emissions

potentialemissions

emissions ***

fuel factor – related to emissions properties of fuels used



demanddemandenergy

primary

energy

primaryemissions

potential

emissions

potentialemissions

emissions ***

efficiency factor – related to amount of

primary energy used to satisfy demand



demanddemandenergy

primary

energy

primaryemissions

potential

emissions

potentialemissions

emissions ***

demand factor


Emissions decomposition

effectdemand

effectefficiency

effectfuel

effectprocess

emissionsCO

2

effect = Δ factor


CO2 emissions reduction – effects contributioncarbon tax 10 €/t CO2

0

20000

40000

60000

80000

2005 2010 2015 2020

Mt

CO

2

PROCESS

FUEL

EFFICIENCY

DEMAND


CO2 emissions reduction – effects contribution carbon tax 25 €/t CO2

0

20000

40000

60000

80000

2005 2010 2015 2020

Mt

CO

2

PROCESS

FUEL

EFFICIENCY

DEMAND


CO2 emissions reduction – effects contribution carbon tax 30 €/t CO2

0

20000

40000

60000

80000

2005 2010 2015 2020

Mt

CO

2

PROCESS

FUEL

EFFICIENCY

DEMAND


Conclusions 1/2

• Coal technologies should have still a large

share in energy supply for Poland

• Traditional coal technologies need to be

replaced by clean coal technologies

• Increase of demand could be balanced by

renewable and nuclear energy


Conclusions 2/2

• Major factors which in longer term

contribute to CO2 emissions reduction are

fuels switch and efficiency increase, the

latter enhances the role of clean coal

technologies

• Demand decreases contribute to emissions

reduction basically in short term


Thank you for your attention


Reversed demand curve

QR Q

PR

P

PR – Reference price equal for all years

QR – Reference demand - forecasts


Unit cost of energy €/PJ

0.00

4.00

8.00

12.00

16.00

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

Year

Un

it c

ost

€/P

J

0

5

10

20

22

25

27

30

NEEDS Forum 2 - Energy Supply Security – Kraków 5-6 July 2007 1 Perspectives of clean coal technologies in Poland Wojciech Suwala AGH-University of Science.

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