Nea presentation 2014-04-08 kth -e3value modeling

Value engineering with e3value and EAAT Margus Välja 2014

Outline

• Research motivation • Value networks with e3value • Probabilistic value networks

• Why • The method • Interpreting results

Research motivation: why value networks?

The project: evaluating business ideas in Stockholm Royal Seaport

Research motivation

Research motivation

How to compare qualitative models?

Research motivation: why value networks

We need a formal approach to evaluate business scenarios. We want to analyze risk/profitability outside the formal boundary of a single organization.

E3value

• A graphical approach to model a value network • Uses simple arithmetics in the background • Use cases used to define calculation logic

http://e3value.few.vu.nl/

E3value

• A graphical approach to model a value network • Uses simple arithmetics in the background

E3value ontology

2014-04-10

Aktör Värde- objekt

Värde- Port (in eller ut (Pil))

Värdeinterface (samlar erbjudandet Och vad som aktören vill ha i retur)

Marknads- segment

Värde- aktiviteter

Probabilistic approach

The problem with incomplete data and prediciting the future. For example: Money for selling a house: 20 -25 million (20% difference) Number of ride sharing passengers 5-25%

Probabilistic approach: EAAT tool

Based on UML and OCL with an inference engine.

www.ics.kth.se/EAAT

Extending e3value: the metamodel

Extending e3value: the object model

Extending e3value: calculation results

Mean value = 10037 Mean value = 4815055 Mean value = 4918

Conclusion

• The lack of knowledge may have a negative impact on the quality of the analysis outcomes

• Our approach is a viable alternative to mean value based analysis and shows risk

Questions/ Discussion

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