NDIA_Thomas

Scenario-Based Studies as a Complement to Military Planning Processes

Scott Thomas & Dave MouatDesert Research Institute

Reno, Nevada

National Defense Industrial AssociationE2S2 Symposium, Denver

16 June 2010

Scenario-Based StudiesThe Process

Identify framing issues and critical uncertainties that face a region Develop scenarios storylines, outlines of eventsSpatially allocate alternative futures in a GIS frameworkAssess impacts

See companion presentation: Dr. Allan Shearer @ 1300 on Thursday in Room 404

Why Use Scenarios?

Installations typically focuses attention and resources inward

However, long-term success will be determined, in part, by factors outside the fence-line Influences on mission capabilities and sustainability

Scenarios provide a context for discussing planning options among leaders and planners internally and with diverse stakeholders regionally

Scenarios Lead to Better Plans

Plans robust to multiple potential futures are better than plans focused on the extrapolated present and near past Broadened perspective raises institutional resilience

Provides more concrete view of future consequences of todays choices

Functions as vulnerability assessment Installation Region

Scenarios Strengthen the Planning Process

Cross-cutting nature of interdisciplinary planning Specificity of description required for scenarios

can lead to concise, measurable objectives

Study Areasin Southwest

Upper San Pedro River WatershedMojave DesertCamp Pendleton & MCAS MiramarSW Range Complex

Encroachment Case Study: Southern California

Practical Impacts of Urbanization

Noise complaints Decreasing habitat in region

Edge effect Noise impacts More eggs in one basket in remaining natural areas

Altered base flows in streams Wetlands Flood attenuation Quality of water and air Impaired scenic views and aesthetic impression

Santa Margarita River Flooding

Camp Pendleton-Miramar Study Area 2000

Population Increase 500,000 1,000,000

Uncertainties Water Energy Mass Transportation Acceptance of high-

density living

Alternative Futures 2025

Reg Low-Density Three CentersNorthernCoastal

100-Year Storm Event Hydrographs for Santa Margarita River

From Steinitz et al. 1996

Uses by Camp Pendleton

Use futures to inform planning: Biodiversity [ESA Sect. 7 & Recovery Plans]

Habitat segmentation Watershed Planning

Flooding regime Water supply & quality Erosion/sediment transport regime

Fire Management Compatible development

Location of urban growth Transportation infrastructure and usage

Air quality

Santa Margarita River Water Quality

Sampling

Geomorphology & Habitat AssessmentSanta Margarita River

Scenarios and Collaboration

Provides compelling framework for visualizing future landscapes

Promotes understanding of potential consequences of current choices

Contributes to enhanced communication among stakeholders Motivates joint action toward shared vision

Analogous Planning Processes

Scenario Studies Alternative futures analysis

Describes constraints and opportunities for installation-level and regional:

Operations Infrastructure Support functions

While informing installation Strategic plans Master plans INRMPs

Military Planning Intelligence Preparation of the

Battlefield (IPB) Process for understanding

battlefield and options it presents (friendly and enemy)

Identifies facts and assumptions about battlefield environment and the threat. Enables staff planning and development of friendly COAs

Provides basis for intelligence direction and synchronization supporting commands chosen COA

IPB Process

Define thebattlefield

environment

Describe the

battlefieldeffects

Evaluatethe

threat

DetermineThreatCOAs

Evaluate AO / Identify AIInitial Intel RequirementsThreat Database

OAKOCMCOOAA AnalysisWeather Analysis

Order of BattleID Threat CapabilitiesDoctrinal Template

Situation TemplateEvent TemplateR&S Plan

FM 34-130

FM 34-130

Analogous Planning Processes

Scenario Studies Delphi method

Elicit stakeholder opinion regarding critical uncertainties

Scenario Development Plausible, fictional plots for the

future of installation and region

Futures Impact Analysis Leads to enhanced

understanding of Drivers of change Potential alternative patterns

of land uses/mission activities

Military Planning Wargaming

Iterative, multi-disciplinary examination of military COAs in order to anticipate solutions to potential challenges

Conclusions Scenario-based studies enhance:

Collaboration Calibrate discussion of consequences to the scale of human action Motivate action toward shared vision

Planning processes Integrated Natural Resource Management Plans Masterplans Watershed Plans

Consultations Section 7 CWA

Adaptive management programs

Conclusions

Scenarios Lead to Better Plans Plans robust to multiple potential futures

Provides more concrete view of future consequences of todays choices

Broadened perspective raises institutional resilience Functions as vulnerability assessment

Conclusions (cont.)

Methods employed are similar to those used by military planners

Especially suited to contribute to existing planning processes at military installations and headquarters

Functions as the IPB and COA analysis tool for installations

Acknowledgments:

Office of the Secretary of DefenseUSACE (CERL)SERDPMarine Corps Installations West MCB Camp PendletonMCAS Miramar

Scott Thomas, PhD. Desert Research Institute Reno, [email protected]

Scenario-Based Studies as a Complement to Military Planning Processes Slide Number 2Scenario-Based StudiesThe ProcessWhy Use Scenarios?Scenarios Lead to Better PlansSlide Number 6Scenarios Strengthen the Planning ProcessSlide Number 8Slide Number 9Practical Impacts of UrbanizationSanta Margarita River FloodingCamp Pendleton-Miramar Study Area 2000Alternative Futures 2025Slide Number 14100-Year Storm Event Hydrographs for Santa Margarita RiverUses by Camp PendletonSanta Margarita River Water Quality Sampling Geomorphology & Habitat AssessmentSanta Margarita RiverScenarios and CollaborationAnalogous Planning ProcessesIPB ProcessSlide Number 22Slide Number 23Analogous Planning ProcessesSlide Number 25ConclusionsConclusionsConclusions (cont.)Acknowledgments:Office of the Secretary of DefenseUSACE (CERL)SERDPMarine Corps Installations West MCB Camp PendletonMCAS Miramar