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NCoMM NCML Commodity Market Monitor Date: 29-05-2018 RM … · growth in 2017 as against 3.94 % globally, as per Southern India Mills Association (SIMA). As per the preliminary sowing
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Castor complex have remained weak tracking subdued demand in spot markets for Castor oil and Castor meal. It is expected that lower demand from soap and other consuming industries and also sufficient availability in the spot markets mainly put pressure on castor seed futures prices.
According to Deesa based traders, demand for Castor oil and Castor meal is very weak at present but market players are expecting demand to improve in coming days as prices are at lower levels.
Stockiest and crushers are expecting demand from paint, soap and lubricant industries to improve in coming weeks.
According to the Solvent Extractors' Association of India (SEA) data, Castor Oil (First grade) FOB Kandla in export priced at $1245 per tonne.
Although export of castor oil and castor meal is on the lower side, but likely to perform well as it did in FY 2017-18. The country exported around 620,000 tonnes of castor oil in 2017-18, which was 11.5 per cent higher than last year.
Castor meal exports have grown by 42 per cent to 573,000 tonnes in 2017-18, as per the latest export data from the Solvent Extractors’ Association of India. The rise in meal exports has been primarily attributed to pick up in demand from South Korea, the largest importer of castor meal from India. About 82 per cent of India’s castor meal is exported to South Korea. Other key importers are the Taiwan, Japan and France.
As per the Ministry of Agriculture 3rd Advance Estimates for 2017-18, Castor seed production in India is 14.90 lakh tonnes as compared to 13.76 lakh tonnes in 2016-17. The all India Castor seed production target for 2017-18 is 19.00 lakh tonnes.
As per the 3rd advance estimates released by the Department of
Agriculture Gujarat Castor seed production in Gujarat for 2017-18
estimated at 12.69 lakh tonnes as against 12.55 lakh tonnes in 2016-17.
According to 3rd advance estimates by Department of Agriculture Rajasthan, Castor seed production in 2017-18 estimated at 1.54 lakh tonnes as compared to 1.90 lakh tonnes last year.
According to the Solvent Extractors' Association of India (SEA), Castor seed production in 2017-18 is likely to increase by at 14.33 lakh tonnes as compared to 10.55 lakh tonnes estimated in 2016-17.
Castor seed new stock position at NCDEX approved warehouses as on 27th May 2018 stood at 44,278 tonnes as against 96,145 tonnes same period last year.
Mandi Price in Rs/ Quintal
28-05-2018 21-05-2018 %Change
Deesa 3974 4019 -1.11
Patan 3870 3945 -1.90
Mahesana 3820 3840 -0.52
2800
3160
3520
3880
4240
4600
4960
Feb
-15
May
-15
Au
g-1
5
No
v-15
Jan
-16
Ap
r-16
Jul-1
6
Oct
-16
Jan
-17
Mar
-17
Jun
-17
Se
p-1
7
De
c-17
Mar
-18
May
-18
Castor - Deesa
FUNDAMENTAL SUMMARY
Price Drivers Impact
Subdued demand for Castor oil and Castor meal
Bearish
Traders expecting improvement in demand from paint, soap and lubricant Industries
Bullish
Higher 2017-18 Castor production compared to last year
Bearish
Castor meal export demand from South Korea
Bullish
Profit booking at higher levels Bearish
Rajasthan estimating lower Castor production for 2017-18
Turmeric futures and spot markets traded range bound with slight
weakness. Farmers do not want to sell their produce at lower
prices hence there is a continuous weakness in arrivals at the
markets. But in the coming days, arrivals may increase as prices are
likely to be supported.
Turmeric stocks reported lower during current year in the spot market. Currently turmeric stocks in Nizamabad (both old and new crop) were estimated around 5.15 lakh bags (1 bag = 70 kgs) as compared to around 7.00 lakh bags same time last year.
As per market sources, Turmeric prices for the long-term are likely
to be supported by better domestic purchases and exports.
This year, good and dried turmeric is being seen in the markets and
in the coming days, in view of the uptrend, traders and stockists
can be seen active for stocking.
Meanwhile, traders are waiting for the monsoon. As per the India
Meteorological Department (IMD), the southwest monsoon is
expected to hit Kerala on May 29, three days ahead of its normal
onset date. Turmeric sowing generally starts after monsoon rains.
As per market sources, the production of Turmeric in entire India
this year is estimated to be about 58 to 62 lakh bags (70 kg bags
per bag). And demand from both domestic and export can be 70 to
75 lakh bags, resulting in the possibility of low carry forward stock
in the coming year, which is likely to push price of Turmeric. But in
July and August rainfall figures may play a major role for the prices.
As per the Ministry of Agriculture, the All India Turmeric production
in 2017-18 is estimated at 10.61 lakh tonnes as against 10.56 lakh
tonnes estimated in 2016-17.
As per the Department of Commerce monthly trade data Turmeric
exports from India during Apr-Feb 2018 stood at 98,486.95 metric
tonnes as compared to 111,695.23 metric tonnes in Apr-Feb 2017.
Turmeric exports to Iran stood at 12,626 tonnes, U.A.E exports
were 7,243 tonnes, and USA it was 6892 tonnes.
Turmeric stocks at NCDEX approved warehouses as on 28th May
2018 stood at 5,633 metric tonnes as against 6,797 metric tonnes in
corresponding period last year.
Mandi Price in Rs/ Quintal
28-05-2018 21-05-2018 %Change
Nizamabad 7379 7400 -0.28
Erode 6980 7100 -1.69
Sangli 7800 8400 -7.14
4800
5500
6200
6900
7600
8300
9000
9700
Jun
-14
No
v-14
Ap
r-15
Se
p-1
5
Mar
-16
Au
g-1
6
Jan
-17
Jun
-17
No
v-17
May
-18
Turmeric : Unpolished fingers : Nizamabad
FUNDAMENTAL SUMMARY
Price Drivers Impact
Farmers do not want to sell their produce at lower prices
Bearish
Higher arrivals of new crop Bearish
Lower stocks availability Bullish
Higher production in 2017-18 Bearish
Lower exports during current marketing year 2017-18
Q1. Name the African country with which India signed a MoU (Memorandum of Understanding) to import import Tur dal in 2016, and now India is having to import tur dal from this country despite huge domestic tur stocks already lying. Ans1. Mozambique Q2. Wheat procurement for Rabi Marketing Season 2018-19 is still below the government's target. (True or False) Ans2. True