Navigation Data & Needs May 9, 2003 David A. Weekly Chief, LRD Navigation Planning Center 304 529-5635 [email protected].

Navigation Data & Needs

May 9, 2003

David A. Weekly

Chief, LRD Navigation Planning Center

304 529-5635

[email protected]

Topics

• Introduction

• Available Data

• Data Applications

• Waterway Network

• What We Model

• What We Would Like to Model

• NAS Comments

Introduction

What Does The Modeler Have To do?

• P & G Compliant

• Use Engineering Input

• Provide Environmental Inputs

• Determine Key Drivers

Introduction

Ultimately, The Modeler Has To Provide Decision

Makers Enough Information To Make a

Decision, Given:

• Time

• Money

• Data

Data

Most Originate From National Data Center (NDC)

http://www.iwr.usace.army.mil/ndc/index.htm

• Waterborne Commerce Statistics Center (WCSC)

• Lock Performance Measurement System (LPMS)

• Cost Data

• Other

WCSC Data

• Point To Point

• Commodity

• Operator

• Registered Vessel

• Tons (or Other)

• Route

NY StateBarge Canal

Hudson

Allegheny

Monon-gahela

Kanawha

Big Sandy

Ohio

Mississippi

Missouri

Illinois

Green

Cumberland

TennesseeBlackWarrior

AlabamaTom-bigbee

TennTom

Atchafalaya

Red

Ouachita

Arkansas

Gulf Intracoastal Waterway

AtlanticIntracoastalWaterway

San Joaquin

Sacramento

SnakeColumbia

In 2001:•582.6 Million Tons•4,000 Unique O-D’s•51,000 O-D-Commodity

Triples

LPMS

• Availability

• Lockage Type

• Times - Delay and Processing

• Flotilla

• Vessel Types

• Commodity

• Tonnage

Use This Data

WCSC LPMS

Barge Type X X

Loaded Barges X

Loading X

Empty Barges X

Commodity X

Powered Vessel X

Flotilla X

LPMS - WCSC LOCK COMPARISONS

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002

Per

cen

t w

ith

in 1

0%

Tons

Trips

http://www.usace.army.mil/inet/functions/cw/cecwp/General_guidance/guidance.htm

Vessel Operating Costs

• Planning Guidance Memoranda

• General Guidance

• Economic Guidance Memoranda– Interest Rates– Deep Draft Operating Costs– Shallow Draft Operating Costs

• Study Guidance Memoranda

Other Costs

• Inventory Holding Costs

• Is it Important ?

– Most Inland Probably Not

– Containers and Specialized – Yes

• Where do we get the Commodity Value ?

• In LRD – 1-2% of Delay Cost

Other Data• OMBIL• Port Series• Navigation Charts• Waterway Point Directory• Vessel Master File• Port Master File• Lock Characteristics• Passengers and Containers• Dredging

Data Applications• WCSC

– Rate Analysis

– Forecasts

• LPMS

– Lock Performance

• Vessel Costs

– Adjust Waterway Portion Of Rates

Water Routing

Land Routing

Metropolitan Statistical Area

Rate Analysis

Forecasts• WCSC gives :

– History– Shippers and Carriers Identified

• What are the Drivers ?

• Why are They Here ?

• What Will They Do ?

• What are the Possible Futures?

• How Are They Affected by Congestion?

• Are There Alternative Sources?

Lock 101

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

- 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 8,000

Thousand of Tons

Average Transit Per Tow (hours)

FIGURE I-32-supplement CHICKAMAUGA – 360’ x 60’TONNAGE-TRANSIT SIMULATION RESULTS

Hyperbolic equation :

y =

4.0669.660

)000,250,7(

)300(

x

x

New Cumberland 2002 Main Chamber ClosureProcessing Times

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

16%

18%

20%

10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120 130 140 150 160 170 180 190 200 210 220 230 240 250

Minutes

Perc

ent

With Helper Boats Avg = 131

Without Helper Boats Avg = 153

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

- 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000

Thousand of Tons

Average Transit Per Tow (hours)

FIGURE I-34-supplement CHICKAMAUGA – 360’ x 60’WITH HELPER BOATS TONNAGE-TRANSIT SIMULATION RESULTS

Hyperbolic equation :

y =

4.0823.460

)000,000,10(

)200(

x

x

Vessel Cost Application

• Use LPMS Flotilla Data

• Apply IWR Costs to Equipment Types

• Yields Underway and Delay Costs ($/Hr or

$/Ton-Hr)

Waterway Network

Sector 11

Sector 12

Sector 13

L39

L38

L40

J11

J12

J13

J14

P44

P42

P41

P43

P45

RiverSegment

(e.g. Kanawha River)

J = JunctionL = LockP = PortB = Bends / 1-way

Network Elements

System Network (Cost Module)

• Add annual tonnage through each lock

• Determine delay at each lock using curves • Compute travel costs for each annual shipment

tons

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sit

/ to

w

tons

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sit

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w

tons

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sit

/ to

w

tons

tran

sit

/ to

w

tons

tran

sit

/ to

w

tons

tran

sit

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w

tons

tran

sit

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w

tons

tran

sit

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w

tons

tran

sit

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w

tons

tran

sit

/ to

w

Link To Structural Reliability

• Engineering Reliability Analysis– Detailed structural condition

studies– Develop hazard functions &

Probabilities of Unsatisfactory Performance (PUPs) for major lock components

– Identify consequences of unsatisfactory performance (Repair costs & Closures)

• Economic Reliability Analysis– Simulate 50 year project-life– Evaluated alternatives

Miter Gate Hazard Functions for Varying Traffic Projections

0

0.5

1

1958 1983 2008 2033 2058

Year

Haz

ard

Ra

te High Traffic Projection

Most Likely Traffic

Low Traffic Projection

ANNUALHAZARDRATE %

NO FAIL(1 - AHR)

NEW GATE 5%

MAJOR 35% REPAIR

180 DAYS/$6,000,000

30 DAYS/$2,000,000

ANNUALHAZARDRATE (AHR)

REPAIRLEVEL

CLOSURE TIME/REPAIR COST

LOOP TO NEXTYEAR VALUES

TEMP. REPAIR 60%W/ NEW GATE

60 DAYS/$5,000,000

NEW GATERELIABILITY

NEW GATERELIABILITY

MOVE BACK5 YEARS ONHAZ. RATE

UPDATEDRELIABILITY

SCHEDULED REPLACEMENT45 DAYS AND $3,500,000

ANNUALHAZARDRATE %

NO FAIL(1 - AHR)

NEW GATE 5%

MAJOR 35% REPAIR

180 DAYS/$6,000,000

30 DAYS/$2,000,000

ANNUALHAZARDRATE (AHR)

REPAIRLEVEL

CLOSURE TIME/REPAIR COST

LOOP TO NEXTYEAR VALUES

TEMP. REPAIR 60%W/ NEW GATE

60 DAYS/$5,000,000

NEW GATERELIABILITY

NEW GATERELIABILITY

MOVE BACK5 YEARS ONHAZ. RATE

UPDATEDRELIABILITY

SCHEDULED REPLACEMENT45 DAYS AND $3,500,000

Are environmental values woven into the formulation and evaluation process to insure that we are practicing adaptive management?

• EOP - Environmental concerns are part and parcel of all USACE missions, decision-making, programs and projects

• Economic Outputs linked to NAVPAT

Integration of Environment

What We Model

Waterway Cost Changes That Arise From Changes:– Traffic Levels and Flow Patterns– Vessel Fleet– Lock Operation (Lockage Polices and Helper Boats,

for Example)– Structural Reliability of Lock Facilities– Taxes and Fees

What We Model

Total Benefits

with Current River

System

$

Total Benefits of New Capacity Resulting

from Reduced Delays of Existing River

Traffic

Total Benefits of New Capacity Resulting

from Additional Tons of River Traffic

Benefits of River Traffic (Land Rate -

River Rate)

Current System-wide Cost of Delay

New Capacity, System-wide Cost of Delay

Total Commodity

Demand Forecasts

Total Benefits of New Capacity

River TonsQ* Q*'

Total Benefits

with Current River

System

$

Total Benefits of New Capacity Resulting

from Reduced Delays of Existing River

Traffic

Total Benefits of New Capacity Resulting

from Additional Tons of River Traffic

Benefits of River Traffic (Land Rate -

River Rate)

Current System-wide Cost of Delay

New Capacity, System-wide Cost of Delay

Total Commodity

Demand Forecasts

Total Benefits of New Capacity

River TonsQ* Q*'

$

Total Benefits of New Capacity Resulting

from Reduced Delays of Existing River

Traffic

Total Benefits of New Capacity Resulting

from Additional Tons of River Traffic

Benefits of River Traffic (Land Rate -

River Rate)

Current System-wide Cost of Delay

New Capacity, System-wide Cost of Delay

Total Commodity

Demand Forecasts

Total Benefits of New Capacity

River TonsQ* Q*'

• Demand - ARS

• Supply – ATC

• Cost Reduction for existing moves (yellow box)

• Cost savings for moves that shift to the waterway (yellow with hash marks)

What We’d Like to Model

• Benefits From Waterway System Improvements

• In So Doing, We Want the Model to be:– Realistic– Consistent With Theory– Consistent With State of Practitioners’ Art

• NAS Had Some Specific Comments

NAS Comments

• Systems Analysis

• Assessments of Nonstructural Alternatives

• Better Integration of ED, EC and EV

• Forecasts and Uncertainty

• Sensitivity of Barge Traffic to Rates

• Modeling Lock Congestion

• Transportation Rates

• Structural Reliability