Navigating the Numbers: Greenhouse Gas Data and International Climate Policy COP11

Navigating the Navigating the Numbers:Numbers:

Greenhouse Gas Data Greenhouse Gas Data andand

InternationalInternationalClimate PolicyClimate Policy

COP11December 5, 2005

Climate and Energy ProgramWorld Resources Institute

• Data providers– CDIAC– RIVM – IPCC– IEA– World Bank

– UNDP– U.S. EPA– U.S. EIA– UNFCCC– Houghton

Acknowledgements

• Funding providers• U.S. EPA, Government of Norway, Wallace Global

Fund, Prospect Hill Foundation

Working assumptions: – Information is the first step to solving any problem – Better information → better decisions– “Delivery system” matters

1. CAIT2. Navigating the Numbers report

Data – Policy Linkage

• A web-based information and analysis tool on global

climate change developed by WRI. CAIT includes:– Data on all greenhouse gases (GHGs) and sources, plus

other policy-relevant data and indicators– Data for 186 countries, plus regions– Analysis tools (e.g., trend, sector, or gas analysis)

• Policy neutral• 4,000 + registered users

Climate Analysis Indicator Tool (CAIT)

• Objectives:

– Convey wealth of GHG data in digestible form• Country-level data (Part I)• Sector-level data (Part II)

– Identify policy-relevant insights from the data (Parts I and II)

Navigating the Numbers

• Indicators

– Absolute, per capita, intensity• Time periods

– Present, past, and future trends• Emissions “Context”

– Drivers: GDP, population, fuel mix, efficiency, structure, trade, fossil fuel reserves, etc.

– Socio-economic context: development indicators

Part I: Country-level data

• Organize data: sector, end-use, gas

Part II: Sector-level data

GHG Flow Diagram: Global Greenhouse Gas Emissions

• Organize data: sector, end-use, gas• Identify and evaluate key sectors

– Absolute, per capita; past and future trends– Sector “context” data:

• Company-level production levels (e.g., iron, aluminum)• Trade flows, investment, MNC presence• GHG measurement and attribution issues• International cooperation assessed across six criteria

Part II: Sector-level data

• Global trends• Big emitters• Emission caps and developing countries• Formulaic approaches to commitments• Sectoral cooperation

Policy-Relevant Implications

• Global trends• Big emitters• Emission caps and developing countries• Formulaic approaches to commitments• Sectoral cooperation

Policy-Relevant Implications

Global CO2 Emissions Growth

Projected Future GHG Emissions Growth

% Percent change from 2000

• Global trends• Big emitters• Emission caps and developing countries• Formulaic approaches to commitments• Sectoral cooperation

Policy-Relevant Implications

Largest Emitters: Developed & Developing

Most Countries Contribute Little to GHG Buildup

Top 25: GHG Emissions

PopulationGDP

Top 25: Extreme Diversity: Diversity of Approaches Needed

• Global trends• Big emitters• Emission caps and developing countries• Formulaic approaches to commitments• Sectoral cooperation

Policy-Relevant Conclusions

Fixed targets: challenging in the context of massive uncertainty

Projected CO2 Emissions Growth to 2025

• Global trends• Big emitters• Emission caps and developing countries• Formulaic approaches to commitments• Sectoral cooperation

Policy-Relevant Conclusions

Historical Contributions: Major Data Constraints

Cumulative CO2 Emissions, Comparison of Different Time Periods

Emissions per Capita: Consensus?

GHG Emissions per Capita

Fuel mix affects CO2 emissionsElectric Power Sector

17%

15%

10%

7%

5%

2%

-6%

-7%

-11%

-12%

-16%-20%

-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%Ja

pan

Fran

ce

S. K

orea

Ger

man

y

USA UK

Aust

ralia

Indi

a

Cana

da

Chin

a

Russ

ia

Trade affects CO2 emissions

CO2 “Imports”: Change in CO2 emissions if accounting is on the basis of domestic consumption

Population Growth affects CO2 Emission trends

• Global trends• Big emitters• Emission caps and developing countries• Formulaic approaches to commitments• Sectoral cooperation

Policy-Relevant Conclusions

• Did not address different “forms” of sectoral cooperation• How important is the sector? [% global GHGs] • Underlying rationale for sectoral cooperation

– Promote participation– Avoid “leakage”– Promote even regulatory playing field (competitiveness)

• How conductive to international cooperation? [6 criteria]• Simple grading system: “+” “–” or no grade.

International Sectoral Cooperation

Summary of Sectoral Analysis

• “Sector-only” model is unlikely be effective• Comprehensive agreements can have:

– “Carve outs” [aviation]– Special sectoral provisions [LUCF]– Complementary sectoral agreements

• Analysis helps reveal:– Where to target investment, technology, and policy– Kyoto’s perceived success and failure

Sectoral Cooperation

• Global trends are in the wrong direction• Address GHGs in context of big emitting

countries and sectors– Int’l cooperation, investment, technology

• No single indicator tells a complete story• Data does not point directly toward a solution

– Nature and scale of problem– Diverse national circumstances

Conclusions

Thank you!Thank you!

Kevin [email protected]

Tim [email protected]

Jonathan [email protected]