Navigating FTA in a sea of expectations Harro van Lente Innovation Studies, Copernicus Institute of Sustainable Development, Utrecht University ICIS, Maastricht.

Navigating FTA in a sea of expectations

Harro van Lente

Innovation Studies, Copernicus Institute ofSustainable Development, Utrecht University

ICIS, Maastricht University

The Netherlands

The 4th International Seville Conference onFuture-Oriented Technology Analysis (FTA)

12 & 13 May 2011


Background

• Study of the WRR Scientific Council for Governmental Policy– reflecting on how foresight

relates to policy practices

• www.toekomstverkennen.nl– lists 240 Dutch foresight

projects (2000-2010)

http://www.toekomstverkennen.nl/


Introduction

• The phenomenon– FTA is future-oriented – like any other practice!

• general sociological lesson: human action is geared towards the future (Weber, Mead, Schutz)

• individual, group, society

– Future oriented technology assessments happen everywhere, continuously and informally

• firms, researchers, policy circles, society at large

– …as if FTA is embedded in a ‘sea’ of expectations

• The question– How to characterize this condition? – Implication of this condition for FTA practices?


Method

• Literature review• sociology of expectations

» science and technology:future oriented par excellence

» progress made in the last 20 years

• strategic management and technology roadmapping

• Participating in WRR project (2008-2010)• Observations from FTA in NanoNed

• Dutch research consortium 2005-2010• universities, research institute, firms• more than 200 PhD projects• about 10 projects on Technology Assessment (CTA)• intended interactions of CTA and other projects


study of expectations

• Definition: expectations are circulating representations of the future

• statements, images,, graphs, terms• within firms, research groups, policy, society• collective expectations• heterogeneous ingredients

• Starting point: the circulation of expectations has consequences


Types and levels of expectations

• Expectations are about:• materials• firms strategies• consumer behaviour• policy shifts

• Expectations are collective in different ways:• individual, groups, organisations, society• more or less shared


Sociology of expectations

• Expectations have consequences– performativity: statements that do something

– statements can be descriptive, normative or performative– extreme case: self fulfilling prophecies (Merton)– performativity depends on social position (‘uncertainty trough’)

– what expectations do:– legitimate decisions (such as funding projects)– guide search activities (like heuristics)– coordinate (positioning one’s work in the envisioned overall task

– overall dynamics: from promise to requirement– technology does not start with problems but with promises– which can be taken up on in agendas (groups, firms, policy)– and lead to requirements – and protection to continue– with a next round.



“The self-fulfilling prophecy is, in the beginning, a false definition of the situation evoking a new behavior which makes the original false conception come true. […] Such are the perversities of social logic”.

Merton 1948



"If men define situations as real, they are real in their consequences“

William Isaac Thomas (1863 - 1947)


Sociology of expectations

• Expectations have consequences– performativity: statements that do something

– statements can be descriptive, normative or performative– extreme case: self fulfilling prophecies (Merton)– performativity depends on social position (‘uncertainty trough’)

– what expectations do:– legitimate decisions (such as funding projects)– guide search activities (like heuristics)– coordinate (positioning one’s work in the envisioned overall task

– overall dynamics: from promise to requirement– technology does not start with problems but with promises– which can be taken up on in agendas (groups, firms, policy)– and lead to requirements – and protection to continue– with a next round.


Explicit steering with expectations

• Encompassing visions or ‘Leitbilder’– electronic superhighway, hydrogen economy

• Niches– protected space to foster a promise

• Yet, inherent ambivalence: promises should not become too specific

– example: CUTE project in UK employing hydrogen (Eames e.a. 2006):

“.[Projecleaders are] living in a fool’s paradise to think that this is safe. When we were in grammar school laboratories, we were taught to treat hydrogen with respect.”

“ What I resent is the pressure from Europe to force one country to adopt this very dangerous technology

Financial Times, 27 September 2003, cited in Eames ea. 2006).


Formal and informal FTA

• FTA exercise can now be defined as a formal articulation of possible futures

... embedded in or inundated by...

• an enormous set of informal articulations of futures


Example: technology roadmapping

• Since the 1980s• Motorola• Lockheed-Martin

• Three levels:• markets• products• technology

• A tool to produce of expectations• Intended for internal learning of firms

• making informal expectations formal


Two modes of dealing with expectations

‘realist’• expectations are right or

wrong• decide whether they are

justified • expectations as

psychological driver• asymmetry analyst and

actors (e.g. hype)

‘constructivist’• expectations are

accepted or abandoned• decide whether they are

robust• as sociological /

rhetorical force• symmetry analyst and

actors


Dealing with hype: second order imitation


Interaction formal and informal FTA

• Strategic positioning before• Formal FTA tapping the repertoire

of informal FTA• Formal FTA adding to the

repertoire of informal FTA• Positioning after adds to the

dynamics• self fulfilling • self denying


Interaction formal and informal FTA

• Limits to formal FTA • circulating images in informal FTA• concepts of informal FTA• causal chains available in informal FTA

• Enhancement of FTA• due to recognition of images and terms• due to confirmation of assumptions


Conclusion

• FTA is enabled and constrained by ongoing expectations dynamics

• FTA is inherently strategic, due the performativity of expectations

• FTA is inherently vulnerable, due to the relationship between formal and informal

• loose relationship: when a formal FTA is surprising it is vulnerable since it is disconnected from the repertoires of the future that legitimize, steer and coordinate

• tight relationship: when a formal FTA is not surprising (repeating the repertoires) it is vulnerable because not seen as adding much value


Outlook

• How to navigate FTA in the sea of expectations?

• at least: be aware of the performativity of expectations (reflexive)

• at least: be aware of the political aims (FTA is not just instrumental)

• SO, needed: clear sight and a compass


References

• Van Asselt (ed.) (2010), Uit zicht: toekomstverkennen met beleid, Amsterdam: Amsterdam University Press.

• Van Lente, H. and S. Bakker (2010), ‘Competing expectations: the case of hydrogen storage technologies’, Technology Analysis & Strategic Management. Vol 22 (6), 693-709.

• Bakker, S, H. van Lente and M. Meeus (2011), ‘Arenas of expectations for hydrogen technologies’, Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Vol 78(1), 152-162.

• Van Lente, H. (2010) ‘Supporting and evaluating emerging technologies: a review of approaches’, Int. J. Technology, Policy and Management, Vol. 10, No. 1/2, pp.104-115.

Navigating FTA in a sea of expectations Harro van Lente Innovation Studies, Copernicus Institute of Sustainable Development, Utrecht University ICIS, Maastricht.

Documents

navigating fta

circulation of expectations

sea of expectations

sea of expectations

sea of expectations

fta practices

informal fta fta exercise

phenomenon fta