Nature Doesn’t Yield Her Secrets Easily Mark Battle (Bowdoin College) Michael Bender (Princeton) Ralph Keeling (Scripps Institute of Oceanography) Pieter.

Nature Doesn’t Yield Her Secrets Easily

Mark Battle (Bowdoin College)

Michael Bender (Princeton)Ralph Keeling (Scripps Institute of

Oceanography) Pieter Tans (NOAA/CMDL)

Jesse Bastide, Carrie Simonds, Blake Sturtevant, Becca Perry

EdFest Rochester 8/7/2004

Funding from: NSF, EPA, NOAA GCRP, BP-Amoco, Bowdoin College

Organizing Principle:

1 topic superficially

Organizing Principle:

1 topic superficially

Many topics with vanishing content

1988-1994: PhD in HEP experiment1994-1997: Post Doc. at URI-GSO (Oceanography)1997-1999: Research Scientist at Princeton (Geosciences)2000 - ? : Asst. Prof. Bowdoin College (Physics)

My tortuous path

Where does anthropogenic CO2 end up?

Measurements of O2 and CO2

O2 = Land biota + IndustryCO2 = Land biota + Industry + Ocean

Measurements of O2 and CO2

real time collections

The Princeton cooperative flask sampling network

Ships of opportunity

Automated sample collection systems

O2/N2 changes are small

O2/N2 per meg (O2/N2sa – O2/N2st)/(O2/N2st) x106

1 per meg = 0.0001%

1 GtC from FF 3.2 per meg O2/N2

1991 – 1997Land sink = 1.4 ± 0.8 GtC/yr

Ocean sink = 2.0 ± 0.6 GtC/yr

Battle et al. Science 2000 (2467-2470)

Measurements of O2 and CO2

real time collections

average land/oceancarbon partition 1991 present

Measurements of O2 and CO2

O2 = Land biota + IndustryCO2 = Land biota + Industry + Ocean

Measurements of O2 and CO2

O2 = Land biota + IndustryCO2 = Land biota + Industry + Ocean

Measurements of O2 and CO2

O2 = Land biota + IndustryCO2 = Land biota + Industry + Ocean

Determining the O2:CO2 stoichiometry for the

land biota

Measurements of O2 and CO2

real time collections air archives

average land/oceancarbon partition 1991 present

measure land O2:CO2

stoichiometry

Firn (snowpack) as an air archive

Ice

Surface

Firn ~120m

Influences of firn air composition

•Overlying atmosphere (Fick’s laws)

Influences of firn air composition

•Overlying atmosphere (Fick’s laws)

•Selective exclusion at bubble close-off (Knudsen regime)

•Gravitational settling (barometric equation)

•Thermal fractionation (kinetic theory)

•Wind pumping/bulk flow (Bernard convection?)

The forward problem…

1. Posit an atmospheric history2. Use the history to drive the model forward in time3. Compare model predictions with observations

The inverse problem…

1. Start with a set of observations2. What atmospheric history led to those data?

The mechanistic inverse problem…

1. Start with a set of observations2. What atmospheric history led to those data?

Trial history(land sink) +(fossil source)+(exclusion flux)

Battle et al., Nature 1996(231-235)

Land sink:0.4 ± 0.4 GtC/yrfor 1977-1985

The phenomenological inverse problem…

1. Start with a set of observations2. What atmospheric history led to those data?

Trial historyf t

Montzka et al., Geophys. Res. Lett., In press

Measurements of O2 and CO2

real time collections air archives

average land/oceancarbon partition 1991 present

average land/oceancarbon partition

19771985

histories of otherspecies

~1900 present

measure land O2:CO2

stoichiometry

Full circle…

Bowdoin teaching:

Physics of the Environment (Physics 81): Spring '02, ‘05Introductory Physics I (Physics 103): Fall, '02Introductory Physics II (Physics 104): Spring '01, Fall '01E & M Laboratory (Physics 223L): Fall ‘04Statistical Mechanics (Physics 229): Spring '00, '01, '02,

'03, ‘05Acoustics (Physics 250): Fall '00Physical Oceanography (Physics 255): Fall '00, '02Atmospheric Physics (Physics 256): Fall '01, Fall ‘04Physics of Particles and Nuclei (Physics 280): Spring '03