Natural Resource Assessment for the State of Maryland: Status and Potentials Rachel T. Pinker Department of Meteorology University of Maryland College.

Natural Resource Assessment for the State of Maryland:Status and Potentials

 Rachel T. Pinker

Department of Meteorology University of Maryland College Park, MD 20742

 [email protected]

Maryland Climate Change WorkshopMaryland Climate Change Stakeholder GroupAugust 6, 2003, Computer and Space Sciences BldgCollege Park, MD  

Outline

Goal: explore benefits to the State of Maryland Current research effort International and National context Status of activity Illustrations:

• Climate research• Agricultural applications• Net primary productivity• Environmental modeling Prospects

Research Focus Development and evaluation of remote inference method for radiative fluxes Use of results in climate research and environmental applications

Scientific rationaleo Global hydrological cycle, energy budget, and net primary productivity-driven by radiative fluxeso Required information for coupling atmospheric and surface hydrological processes and parametrizationso Evaluation of large scale NWP and climate models to improve climate change assessment

U.S. Global Change Research Program Priority: Climate and Hydrologic Systems

o the role of clouds in the radiation budget of the atmosphere; o oceanic circulation patterns and the redistribution

of energy within the oceans;o the fluxes of water and energy between the atmosphere, bio-sphere, and land and ocean surfaces;

o the quantitative links in the climate system, including feedbacks among atmosphere, ocean, cryosphere, land surface and biosphere; and o the influence of polar ice sheets and sea ice on climate and the hydrologic cycle.

National context of activityNational context of activity

Cooling

Cooling

Warming

Warming

Clouds

Aerosols

Water

Vapor

Precipitation

Evaporation

COMPONENTSCOMPONENTSRole of Energy and Water in ClimateRole of Energy and Water in Climate

International

GEWEX Cloud System

Satellite CloudClimatology Project

(ISCCP)

Studies (GCSS) GEWEX

Continental-ScaleHydrometeorology Projects

GCIP/GAPPBALTEX

GAME

LBA

MAGSGlobal

Global Runoff Data

Precipitation ClimatologyProject (GPCP)

Center (GRDC)

SurfaceRadiation Budget

Project (SRB)

Baseline SurfaceRadiation Network

(BSRN)

GEWEX

Water Vapor Project

(GVaP)

Land Surface Modeling / Data Projects

GLASS

*

*ISLSCP

GACP - Global Aerosol Climatology

Project

(PILPS/GSWP)

Biogeochemistry

International context of activity

International context of activity

Monthly Mean Shortwave Downward Flux (W/m**2) at 0.5 Degree Resolution for January 1992 Derived with the U of MD GEWEX/SRB Model using GOES, METEOSAT, and

GMS DX Observations

An EOF iteration approach was used to obtain homogeneous fluxes from inhomogeneous satellite observations

Model run currently at NASA LaRC at 10 resolutionGlobal scale capabilitiesGlobal scale capabilities

Version 2

C1 and C2

1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004

ISCCP(Clouds)

SRB(Radiation)

GVAP(Water Vapor)

ISCCP 2D1 and DX

GVAPNVAP

ISLSCP(Land-Surface)

Version 2 Version 1.1

*Hatched lines represent planned data sets

Initiative IIInitiative I

GACPGACP(Aerosols)

New Satellite Launches

III

GLOBAL DATA SETSGLOBAL DATA SETS

GPCP(Precipitation)

Contribute to item #2-Surface Radiation Budget (SRB) dataContribute to item #2-Surface Radiation Budget (SRB) data

Global Surface Radiative Fluxes in support of GEWEX Available for July 1983-December 2001

Click on figure to see loopClick on figure to see loop

Radiation budget in AMIP II GCMs

Major uncertainty shortwave budget:

Partitioning of absorption of solar radiation between surface and atmosphere

SW Absorption SurfaceMean=163 Wm-2

Stdev= 8.4 Wm-2

SW Absorption AtmosphereMean= 73 Wm-2

Stdev= 7.3 Wm-2

After Wild et al. (2003)After Wild et al. (2003)

AMIP II GCMS SURFACE SW DOWN

After Wild et al. (2003)After Wild et al. (2003)

168

204

187 188

150

160

170

180

190

200

210

Wm

-2

mri (min) cola (max) mean GEWEX satellite

mri (min)

cola (max)

mean

GEWEX satellite

AMIP II GCMS SURFACE SW DOWN

50

60

70

80

90

100

Wm

-2

cola (min.) mpi (max.) mean GEWEX satellite

cola (min.)

mpi (max.)

mean

GEWEX satellite

SW ABSORPTION ATMOSPHERE

140145150155160165170175180185190

Wm

-2

mri (min.) cola (max.) mean GEWEX satellite

Wild et al(1998)

Ohmura+Gilgen(1993)

mri (min.)

cola (max.)

mean

GEWEX satellite

Wild et al (1998)

Ohmura+ Gilgen(1993)

SW ABSORPTION SURFACE

GEWEX UMD results-15 year average GEWEX UMD results-15 year average

GEWEX Continental Scale International Project (GCIP) and GEWEX Americas Prediction Project (GAPP):

Surface Radiation Budget (SRB) Data

Produced at real time at NOAA at 0.5 deg; distributed by the U of MD at:http://www.atmos.umd.edu/~srb/

Used at over 100 institutionsParameters provided: surface short-wave and  PAR (global and diffuse); TOP net; cloud amount; cloud optical depth; surface skin temp

Selected parameters

•Downwelling fluxes – SW, PAR (global and diffuse)•Upwelling fluxes- SW and PAR•Surface temperature and snow cover•Fractional cloud cover•TOA net SW fluxes •Cloud optical depth 

Upper: Capabilities developed to produce fluxes at 1/8 deg

Lower: IGBP concept of surface processes

Upper: Capabilities developed to produce fluxes at 1/8 deg

Lower: IGBP concept of surface processes

Reprocessed “legacy” radiative fluxes in support of GCIP 1996-2000

GEWEX Continental-Scale International Project (GCIP)To account for calibration drifts and operational restrictions, data are being reprocessed (click for loop)To account for calibration drifts and operational restrictions, data are being reprocessed (click for loop)

Surface skin temperature from GOES satellitesNOAA operational product “Reprocessed” at 1/2 “Reprocessed” at 1/8

Comparison of fractional snow cover as derived from ”reprocessing” algorithm at two spatial resolutions with the IMS product and snow cover from Air Force as initially used operationally

Fractional snow cover as derived at UMD ”reprocessing” at two spatial resolutions, the IMS and the Air Force

Validation sites

Validation results

Radiation climate from satellite and observed

Satellites can reproduce the radiation climate characteristics at each grid pointSatellites can reproduce the radiation climate characteristics at each grid point

Examples of product evaluation and use follow:

1. Comparison against buoy observations off the Atlantic coast

2. of product against NCEP Eta model off the Pacific coast

3. Use in Land Data Assimilation schemes

4. Evaluation of product in the LDAS framework

Radiative fluxes from GOES, NCEP Eta model, and buoy off the Atlantic coast

Baumgartner and Anderson (1999) Baumgartner and Anderson (1999)

Comparison of GCIP/GAPP and NCEP shortwave fluxes at a location 200 km off the California coast (K. Edwards, private communication, 2003). Larger discrepancies in summer (green/yellow colors): due to missed clouds in the NCEP model.

Comparison of GCIP/GAPP and NCEP shortwave fluxes at a location 200 km off the California coast (K. Edwards, private communication, 2003). Larger discrepancies in summer (green/yellow colors): due to missed clouds in the NCEP model.

The Multi-Institution North American

Land Data Assimilation System Project: (N-LDAS)

Ken MitchellNCEP Environmental Modeling Center

Mississippi River Climate & Hydrology Conference15 May 2002

P. Houser, E. Wood., A. Robock, J. Schaake, D. Lettenmaier, D. Lohmann, B. Cosgrove, J. Sheffield, L. Luo, Q. Duan,

W. Higgins, R. Pinker , D. Tarpley, J. Meng

GAPP GCIP

U of Md GEWEX Continental Scale International Project (GCIP) and GEWEX Americas Prediction Project (GAPP):

Surface Radiation Budget (SRB) Data –Collaborative Effort with NCEP and NOAA to Support LDAS Activity and Others

LDAS Implementation

Forcing: (top two are non-model based)Precipitation: 24 hour gauges, NCEP/OH Stage IV gage/radar precipitationRadiation: NESDIS 0.5-degree hourly GOES solar insolationMeteorology: NCEP EDAS (Eta 4DDA) analysis (wind, temperature, pressure, humidity, downward longwave)

GOES shortwave radiation [W/m^2] 20011101 18Z Gauge / Stage IV precip [mm] 20011101 18Z

LDAS Forcing Validation 2001 08-11

Monthly mean diurnal

solar insolation intercomparison

GOESEDAS

AGRMETvs

SURFRADSURFRAD

Examples how product used in research related to:

1. Climate models2. Agricultural applications3. Meso-scale modeling4. Ocean modeling5. New research on land degradation

Comparison of spectral surface albedos and their impact on the general circulation model simulated

surface climateRoesch A, Wild M, Pinker R, Ohmura A

JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-ATMOSPHERES

107 (D14): art. no. 4221 JUL 2002

It is shown that ignoring the spectral dependence of the surface albedo will affect the predicted climate. The study reveals substantial changes in the climate over northern Africa when modifying the surface albedo of the Sahara deserts. Detailed information is given how the European Center/Hamburg General Circulation Model (ECHAM4) can be extended to include surface boundary conditions for both the visible and near-infrared incoming radiation.

Solar radiation and evapotranspiration in northern Mexico estimated from remotely sensed measurements of cloudiness

Garatuza-Payan J, Pinker RT, Shuttleworth WJ, Watts CJHYDROLOGICAL SCIENCES JOURNAL-JOURNAL DES

SCIENCES HYDROLOGIQUES 46 (3): 465-478 JUN 2001

 Impact of ingesting satellite-derived cloud cover into the Regional

Atmospheric Modeling System

Yucel I, Shuttleworth WJ, Pinker RT, Lu L, Sorooshian SMONTHLY WEATHER REVIEW

130 (3): 610-628 MAR 2002  

This study investigates the extent to which assimilating high-resolution remotely sensed cloud cover into the Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (RAMS) provides an improved regional diagnosis of downward short- and long-wave surface radiation fluxes and precipitation.  

The role of daily surface forcing in the upper ocean over the tropical Pacific: A

numerical studySui CH, Li XF, Rienecker MM, Lau KM,

Laszlo I, Pinker RTJOURNAL OF CLIMATE

16 (4): 756-766 FEB 2003 The impacts of high-frequency surface forcing in the upper ocean over the equatorial Pacific are investigated using a nonlinear reduced-gravity isopycnal ocean circulation model forced by daily and monthly mean forcing. The simulated sea surface temperature (SST) in the daily forcing experiment is colder than that in the monthly forcing experiment near the equator.

Modeling and monitoring the impact of land degradation on primary productivity in Southern Africa with remotely

sensed data (Konrad Wessels, Ph.D. candidate Geography)

Most basic ecosystem function -Net Primary Productivity (NPP)

Biologicalvariables

NDVI

LAI

Plant functionaltype

Climate variables

Temperature

VPD

Rainfall

FPAR

GPP

Ra

Satellite remote sensing

Soil moisture

LUE

NPP

GLObal Production Efficiency Model (GLO-PEM)

PAR

Estimated NPP for the coterminous United States using the GLO-PEM model (S. Prince, private communication)

Sensitivity of the SRB model to aerosol information:

Difference in shortwave clear sky surface downward flux between old and updated aerosol climatology

August climatology of aerosol optical depth, single scattering albedo and asymmetry parameter from AERONET, transport model and GADS

New developments on aerosol effects (H. Liu, grad student) New developments on aerosol effects (H. Liu, grad student)

Summary

from satellite observations at global and local scales forImportant environmental parameters are currently derived improved environmental modeling

These products have been and are continuously evaluated by numerous groups This information has already proven its utility in a wide range of scientific applications

Work continues on product improvements to meet the needs of the scientific community

From this effort, benefit can accrue to the State of Maryland

Where information on radiative fluxes can be used

Maryland Climate Change Stakeholder Dialogue

WORKING GROUPS

Electricity

assessment of natural resources

 Residential, Commercial, Industry

inputs to hydrological models

 Transportation and Land-Use

inputs for flood modeling

Agriculture, Forestry, and Waste

net primary productivity; forestry management

Team:

Dr. I. LaszloQ.-H. LiDr. Xu LiDr. W. MengDr. D. SunDr. B. Zhang

Graduate students:

Hiroko KatoFan LeiHongqing LiuMeng-Pai HungHengmao WangMargaret WonsickShankar Ganesh Subramanian

Selected Collaboration: 

NASA Langley Research Center-GEWEX/SRB  NOAA/NESDIS/NCEP-GCIP/SRB  NASA GSFC -AERONET  University of Arizona- SALSA

University of Chiba -ADEOS-II

CPTEC-INPE, Brazil- LBA University of Ilorin, Nigeria-EOS  Department of Geography, UMD- NPP UMIACS, UMD- GLCF  Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, UMD - SNOW  University of Salamanca, Spain -CLIMATE