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UNCLASS // REL USA ISAF NATO
Metrics Brief2007 - 2008
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UNCLASS // REL USA ISAF NATO
Security Summary 2008
DATA DERIVED FROM NATO/JOIIS DATABASE
Baluch
iArea
NWFP
FATA 2
1
Major INSURGENTLines of Operation
Kinetic Event Density
*Range based on UNAMA and ISAF/NATO data collection.
Increasing
2008
24% Afghans perceive improvement,
19% perceive worsening (Sep 08 poll)
70% of kinetic events continue to occurin 10% of the districts
33% increase in Kinetic Events
IED events up 27%....single largest
cause of casualties
119% more attacks on GIRoA5% less Suicide Attacks50% more Kidnappings/Assassinations
ISAF/OEF Deaths: up 35%Civilian Deaths: up 40% - 46%*
Building Host Nation Capacity:ANA: 13 more Kandak BNs formed
46 Kandaks capable of BN Ops
ANP: 52 districts undergoing FDD13 of 20 Civil Order Police BNsfielded
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UNCLASS // REL USA ISAF NATO
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
Jan
07
Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan
08
Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
ISAF Finds ANSF Finds Turn-Ins Detonations
IED Events (Found and Exploded)
27% increase in IED events /29%increase in casualties
24% increase in discoveries* (by volume)2007 / 2008 discoveries* = 35% of all IED events
21%increase in civilian turn-ins
*discoveries = IED finds + turn-ins
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UNCLASS // REL USA ISAF NATO
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Garmsir 08Garmsir 07
Kinetic Events Analysis
Change In Kinetic Event Density1Jan - 28 Dec 07 and 08
Decreased events in select areas
Kabul: City 47%; Province 15%- ANSF deaths down 61%
Garmsir: 43%
Kabul* 07 Kabul* 08
Kinetic Event Density
Increasing
33% more kinetic events in 08 - same areas Increased event levels due to:
More ISAF / ANSF operating in more areasIncreased asymmetric methods
Continued sanctuary in PAK
2007
2008
*Density range / calibration differs from provinceto district in order to show differences
Kinetic Event Density
Increasing
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UNCLASS // REL USA ISAF NATO
Civilian Deaths*
Up46% according to ISAF (JOIIS/NATO) databaseUp40% according to UNAMA database INS cause 80% of civilian casualties**
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
Jan
07
Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan
08
Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
ISAF Database UNAMA Database
*does not include criminal events** according to ISAF reports / investigations
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UNCLASS // REL USA ISAF NATO
0
25
50
75
100
125
150
ANA ANP ISAF
Military Deaths*
Overall Trend up 12% ISAF/OEF: up 35% ANA: up 16% ANP: up 9%
ANP - over 60% of total since Jan 2007
*Attributed to Big 8
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UNCLASS // REL USA ISAF NATO
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Dec-06
Jan-07
Feb-07
Mar
-07
Apr-0
7
May
-07
Jun-07
Jul-07
Aug-07
Sep-07
Oct-07
Nov-07
Dec-07
Jan-08
Feb-08
Mar
-08
Apr-0
8
May
-08
Jun-08
Jul-08
Aug-08
Sep-08
Oct-08
Nov-08
Dec-08
ANA Size and Capability
ANA Increasingly Conducting and Leading Operations (62% of total) ANA Air Corps have over tripled monthly troop and cargo capacity since Feb 08
Feb 08: 3,000 passengers / 10 tons of cargoNov 08: 10,000 passengers / 50 tons of cargo
CM1 Level Description
CM 1 BN Level Ops, IF2 Enables
CM 2 BN Level Ops with IF SptCM 3 Co Level Ops with IF Spt
CM 4 Unit Formed, No Capability
Dec 08:62% CM1/2
Dec 07:44% CM1/2
Dec 06:30% CM1/2
1CM = Capability Milestone Rating2IF = International Forces
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UNCLASS // REL USA ISAF NATO
Health
Major issues related to healthcare assessment arise from the lack of a basic acceptable standardof healthcare. Many Afghans deem simple items such as vaccination as healthcare.
Source: MRA, ANDP 6, July 2008
Uruzgon not sampled due to extremely poorsecurity & high riskPopulation approx. 300k; 1% of Afghanistan
% with access to a clinic or Hospital
56%
75%
62%
0% 25% 50% 75% 100%
Periphery
Center
Overall
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UNCLASS // REL USA ISAF NATO
Education
Access* to schools for both girls and boys varies across the country and is tightly linked tosecurity. Degree of access to girls schools is also an ethno-geographic factor.
Source: ANDP 6, July 2008
Uruzgon not sampled due to extremely
poor security & high riskPopulation approx. 300k; 1% of theAf hanistans o ulation
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UNCLASS // REL USA ISAF NATO
Ring Road & International Links (Dec 08)
Source: USAID 30 Nov 08
Kandahar
Kabul
Herat
Jalalabad
4
6
12
Spin Boldak
5
7
Pul-i-khumri
Doshi Bazarak
12
10
4
55
14
10
CompletedTo be complete by Mar 09 (benchmark)To be complete by Mar 10To be complete after Mar 10Unknown
75% of RING Road and 44% of
International Links Completed
6471.4 75
0
20
40
60
80
100
Oct 07 Jul 08 Oct-08
154 kilometers constructed in 2008