National Security Strategy – United Kingdom

National Security Strategy – United Kingdom

Presentation to the 20th Meeting of EU Director Generals for Civil Protection

Ljubljana 19-21 May 2008

Peter TallantireCabinet OfficeUnited Kingdom

Mutual learning opportunities

Exchange of best practices:

United Kingdom:‒ National Risk Method

The Netherlands:‒ National Safety and Security Strategy

The Role of the Cabinet OfficeThe Role of the Cabinet Office

The aim of the Cabinet Office is:

‒ To make government work better

The Cabinet Office Objectives:

‒ Supporting the Prime Minister‒ Supporting the Cabinet‒ Strengthening the Civil Service

Cabinet Office Groups / Secretariats:

‒ Security, Intelligence & Resilience, Civil Contingencies, Foreign & Defence Policy, European & Global Issues, Economic & Domestic, and Ceremonial

‒ Service Cabinet and its Committees‒ Broker agreement between Departments where policy

initiatives cannot otherwise be agreed

The National Security Strategy of the United Kingdom:

Security Challenges

NUCLEAR WEAPONS and other WMD Stockpile of nuclear weapons

No state currently has the intent or capability to pose a direct nuclear threat to the UK but risk might emerge in the future.

TRANS NATIONAL ORGANISED CRIMEfraud, illegal drugs trade, weapons, immigration and human trafficking

Threat to legitimate livelihoods, undermine & corrupt economies, societies

& governments ; cause or exacerbate state failures leading to civil war or violent conflict. Support of terrorist

networks?

GLOBAL INSTABILITY and CONFLICT and FAILED and FRAGILE STATES

Violent and serious conflict within states Difficult to predict shocks or conflicts.

TERRORISMCONTEST strategy in place

Serious and sustained threat from violent extremists. Threat levels published. Mass

casualty impact using CBRN technology and can include CNI targets.

STATE LED THREATS TO THE UKNo state or alliance has both the

intent and the capability to threaten the UK militarily

UK subject to high levels of covert non- military activity by foreign intelligence

organisations.

CIVIL EMERGENCIES Over half the COBR activations in

2007 Ability to respond to disruptive challenges

such as FMD, pan flu, fuel shortages, power failures and extreme weather.

DRIVERS OF INSECURITY

Climate change, competition for energy, poverty / inequality, globalisation & increasing interdependence of risks.

Working Together

STRENGTHENING NATIONAL SECURITY

STRUCTURES

• JOINT PARLIAMENTARY NATIONAL SECURITY COMMITTEE

• STRENGTHEN FORWARD PLANNING

• IMPROVE STRATEGIC PERSPECTIVE ON PRIORITIES THROUGH BETTER CONNECTIONS

• NATIONAL SECURITY FORUM

• PULISH NATIONAL RISK REGISTER

CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUALS & COMMUNITIES

Individuals have essential role to play:

•BEING VIGILANT AGAINST TERRORISM

•PLANNING FOR AND TAKING A MORE ACTIVE ROLE IN RESPONDING TO EMERGENCIES

•PLAYING PART IN TACKLING LONGER TERM CHALLENGES

•VOLUNTEERING & DIALOGUE TO ENSURE SHARED VALUES UPHELD

National Risk Assessment Matrix

• 5 Key

• 4

•Im

pac

t

• 3

• 2

H6, H25

H26, H38, T5

T10, T18, T26

T35, T46, T59

H4, H48, T3, T4

T13, T37, T39, T41

• 1

• 1 • 2 • 3 • 4 • 5

• Likelihood

Very high

High

Medium

Low

T38, H41

5

4

3

2

1

1 2 3 4 5

=

Consequences• What are the generic consequences?• Reasonable worst case warning time?• Regional variation?• Military involvement?• Interdependency?

National Resilience Planning Assumptions

Risks• What risks should drive planning?• What is the reasonable worst case,

taken across those risks

plus

Functional Planning Assumptions

Essential Services Planning Assumptions

Planning Assumptions - Functional

Human Fatalities with Infectious Disease People with Illness Human Fatalities caused by Conventional Incidents Human Casualties caused by Conventional Incidents Biological Release Radiological Environmental Contamination Radiological Release Chemical Releases Debris / Rubble Major Flooding Influx of British Nationals Infected Animals Fire and Rescue Cover

Planning Assumptions - Essential Services

Water Supply Transport Oil and Fuel Gas Electricity Telecoms Health Financial Services

The Future – Continue Building Capability

Technical:‒ Mass fatalities‒ Humanitarian Assistance‒ CBRN (Model Response)‒ Telecomms resilience

Planning‒ Flu; and …

Human:‒ The Human Component of Resilience ‒ Crisis leadership capacity‒ Professionalism through standards

Raise the Bar Catastrophic Events:

‒ Wide Area Flooding‒ ‘Black Start’

Recovery Continue Learning the Lessons (Newton, Pitt, Anderson) CCA ‘6000-mile Service’ London Olympics 2012 New or more physical capabilities The human component

‒ New/more/different procedures‒ Horizontal Mutual Aid‒ Training – especially collective.

‘Reaching Out’:‒ Citizens and their families‒ Citizens in communities

National Security Strategy The Netherlands

The first results:National Risk AssessmentMass Evacuation Task

Dick SchoofDirector-general for Public Safety and SecurityMinistry of the Interior & Kingdom Relations, The Netherlands

Ljubljana, 19 - 21 May 2008

Short background Netherlands’ Security Strategy

National Security Strategy published May 2007

There is a need for a more coordinatedand integrated approach on National Security

More complex societyIncreased dependence on complex systemsDiffuse and changing threatsInterdependence dimension of threatsInternational dimension of threats

Focus: all-hazard approach

What is National Safety & Security?

Focus on 5 vital interests:- Territorial security- Physical security- Economical security- Ecological security- Social & political stability

Scope:(Potential) disruption of societythroughout the entire security chain

National threat progress report

(short & long term horizon scanning)

National risk assessment

Advice national capabilities

Horizon scanning

Risk

AssessmentTasks

Capabilities

(planning

assumptions)

National Security Strategy

Threat/risk analysis

What do we need to do? What do we

need to have?

Which threats do we face? And what is the impact?

Policy

arrangements

National Risk Assessment

2007-2008 priority is given to:

1. Climate change

2. Polarization and radicalization

3. Certainty of the energy supply

In total 13 risk scenarios

Very unlikely Unlikely Possible Likely Very likely

E

B

A

C

D

I

III

II

Impact

Likelihood

Risk Diagram

3 Risk categories

1. High impact and highly probable:

• Flu pandemic

• Oil crisis

2. High impact but unlikely:

• Malicious disruption of electricity

• Floods

3. Low impact but highly probable:

• Polarisation and radicalisation

• National black-out electricity

Overall analysis high impact risks:

• High impact criteria:

costs

disruption common life

psychological/social impact

• Shortage vital products and services

Management of vital products and services

• In critical phase: government cannot do it alone

Self help of citizens

Shared responsibilities • Government (Central, Regional, Local) • Private sector• Citizens Cooperation with non-profit and international organizations

Dilemma’s• How to activate the private sector without financial donations?• How to raise awareness of citizens without a real time threat?•Risk communications

Mass evacuation

2 scenario’s: coast and rivers

Conclusion:

• Coast: preventive evacuation is no option

• Rivers: preventive evacuation is possible

10 actions for the future

1. Itensify preparation flu pandemic

2. Review IEA mechanism (oil crisis)

3. National operational evacuation plan

4. National strategy distribution of shortage (securing, guarding, energy, (drinking) water)

5. Research solidness communication (C2000, cell broadcast)

6. National information system (Netcentric)

7. Continuity vital infrastructure

8. Increase self helpness citizens

9. Investigation capabilities civil-military cooperation

10. Broaden mass evacuation to CBRN and forest fires

In the near future

I. End of May reports:

National Risk Assessment + Mass Evacuation Task

Council of Ministers

Advice: all information is made public

II. Follow-up international conference on national safety & security

Questionnaire: to set up a network of people (government, science, private sector) interested in issues of particular aspects of national safety & security

Analysis outcomes questionnaire will follow before the Summer

Thank you for your attention

Questions?