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1. National Opinion Poll: June 2016 - for Publication on 3 rd July 2016
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National Opinion Poll: June 2016 - Millward Brown...Brexit has cast, and will continue to cast, a long shadow over the political and economic fortunes of this country for some time

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Page 1: National Opinion Poll: June 2016 - Millward Brown...Brexit has cast, and will continue to cast, a long shadow over the political and economic fortunes of this country for some time

1.

National Opinion Poll: June 2016 - for Publication on 3rd July 2016

Page 2: National Opinion Poll: June 2016 - Millward Brown...Brexit has cast, and will continue to cast, a long shadow over the political and economic fortunes of this country for some time

2.

Introduction

A National Public Opinion Poll was conducted on behalf of The Sunday

Independent to be published on Sunday 3rd July 2016.

The topics covered included party political support, satisfaction with

Government and party leaders, personal financial circumstances and

attitudes towards gangland internment.

Interviews were conducted face-to-face, in-home, with those aged 18+.

Quota controls were set on gender, age, social class and region to mirror

the 18+ population profile.

1,000 interviews were conducted at 64 sampling points nationwide.

Interviews were carried out between 18th to 30th June 2016.

Data was weighted to reflect the adult population aged 18+.

The margin of error for this opinion poll is +/- 3.1%

Page 3: National Opinion Poll: June 2016 - Millward Brown...Brexit has cast, and will continue to cast, a long shadow over the political and economic fortunes of this country for some time

3.

The survey results presented here are derived from

The Independent Newspaper Group/Millward Brown

Poll. The poll was conducted among a sample of

1,000 adults representative of the approximate 3.43

million adults aged 18 and over - interviewed on a

face-to-face basis in the home at 64 sampling points

throughout the Republic of Ireland. The margin of

error for this opinion poll is +/- 3.1%

The 1,000 interviews on the poll were carried out

between 18th and 30th June 2016.

The poll was conducted in accordance with the

guidelines set by ESOMAR and AIMRO (European and

Irish Market and Opinion Research governing bodies).

Extracts from the report may be quoted or published

on condition that due acknowledgement is given to

Millward Brown and The Sunday Independent.

© Millward Brown & The Sunday Independent 2016.

Introduction

POLL

Page 4: National Opinion Poll: June 2016 - Millward Brown...Brexit has cast, and will continue to cast, a long shadow over the political and economic fortunes of this country for some time

4.

The Results

Page 5: National Opinion Poll: June 2016 - Millward Brown...Brexit has cast, and will continue to cast, a long shadow over the political and economic fortunes of this country for some time

5.

Fall in support for Independents, while main parties benefit

This Millward Brown Poll, conducted over twelve days up until Thursday, is our first since the General Election. It is

therefore our first measurement of public opinion since the tortuous period of government formation.

Interviewing also coincided with the lead up, and aftermath of the UK Brexit referendum – a result that undoubtedly

has huge ramifications for Ireland and this poll identifies some of them.

First off, the state of the parties. Compared to the General Election result, there has been some movement of late.

Fine Gael will be relieved to see some momentum upwards in support since its disastrous General Election

performance. They now stand at 30pc, up four points from February’s national vote. Fianna Fail has also improved

its position since then, albeit by a more modest 2pc to 26pc.

The election of Brendan Howlin as leader has done little to resuscitate Labour’s drift towards obscurity; just seven

per cent opt for the party.

What is more fascinating is the contrasting fortunes of Sinn Fein and Others/independents. On paper, it would seem

that Sinn Fein have seen a dramatic boost in their fortunes. But SF is a party that often flatters to deceive when

there is no General Election on the immediate horizon – the value of their stock can be often overpriced, as their

inability to get their supporters to vote on the day is well documented. In addition, the hard left will continue to

nibble at its flanks.

There is, however, potentially a more important development. Whilst parties such as AAA, the Greens and Social

Democrats have maintained their support, the proportion of the electorate opting for independent candidates has

dropped back significantly.

It may well be that following the huge groundswell of support for them in February, the public has realised that

creating such a fractured Parliament isn’t necessarily a good thing – taking 63 days to form a Government tends to

fray the nerves somewhat (not that they were the only ones to blame).

Page 6: National Opinion Poll: June 2016 - Millward Brown...Brexit has cast, and will continue to cast, a long shadow over the political and economic fortunes of this country for some time

6.

Fall in support for Independents, while main parties benefit (Cont’d)

In addition, there are now independents sitting around the cabinet table, batting for Government policy; their

voting public may have assumed they were electing them in to bowl.

This new Government’s satisfaction levels remain similar to the previous administration – a rather underwhelming

28pc are happy with their performance so far. Of course, these are early days, but three in five are unhappy. With

such an eclectic mix of characters propping up this Government, this will be one metric to watch closely in the

coming months.

Looking at Party Toxicity (that is, which grouping people would NOT vote for), results have remained relatively

stable. Of the main parties, Sinn Fein, followed by Fine Gael and Labour, remain the most likely to alienate. As

before, Fianna Fail are least toxic of them (although one in four would not consider them). This measure provides

an important yardstick to understand where Dail seats will go, given the complexity of the Irish electoral system.

Reflecting this to a certain extent is that Micheal Martin is by far the party leader attracting most satisfaction – 43pc

are happy with his performance – up sixteen points since the last comparable poll (although at 31pc, Gerry Adams is

second most effective). Enda Kenny and Brendan Howlin bring up the rear at 27pc respectively. It would seem that

Martin’s statesman-like decision to support the Government (in some circumstances) is paying dividends.

Of course, focussing on the domestic political scene in a vacuum this weekend is rather pointless. The impact of

Brexit has cast, and will continue to cast, a long shadow over the political and economic fortunes of this country for

some time to come. This poll highlights this in perfect clarity.

From the outset, the Irish Population was firmly in favour of Britain remaining within the EU. A pan- European Poll,

conducted by Millward Brown in Ireland, and our TNS Colleagues across Europe earlier in June, found that 70pc of

Irish people wanted the UK to remain, second only Germany (79pc).

By Britain leaving, the narrative has changed utterly. From Enda Kenny’s point of view, this is a political nightmare.

He is now stuck between protecting the interests of Anglo Irish trade and cross border relationships, and appeasing

the EU.

Page 7: National Opinion Poll: June 2016 - Millward Brown...Brexit has cast, and will continue to cast, a long shadow over the political and economic fortunes of this country for some time

7.

Fall in support for Independents, while main parties benefit (Cont’d)

This will be a very fine tightrope to walk. The problem for Kenny is that for him to negotiate with Europe on a

special deal for Ireland will potentially expose his perceived weakness – to stand up to Europe. An unforgiving

Europe may be in no mood to appease anything to the UK.

A hawkish attitude has already been signalled by Jean Claude Juncker, president of the European Commission,

Francois Hollande of France and his Belgian and Spanish counterparts. Of course, they have their own motives (both

national and European) to do so, but it means that Kenny will be very much fighting off the back foot. In addition,

he will not have his traditional ally, the UK, to back him up.

Under any circumstances this would be extremely difficult, but Kenny (and Micheal Noonan) have additional baggage

– they are still haunted, and taunted, by the perceived ineffectiveness of the last time they played hardball with

Europe – their “Seismic Shift” in European Policy on debt last time out was anything but.

Ironically however, the instability that Brexit causes may well prolong the life of this government. There is a

general consensus that this is a transitional administration – over seven in ten (72pc) believe it will last no more

than two years. Yet an analysis of interviews conducted before the Brexit result announcement vs Post Result

announcement suggests that people are drifting towards the upper end of that time scale; those believing the

Government will last 18 months the two years shifted from 29pc to 38pc. It may well be that stability in the short

term at least is the most sensible option.

There is no doubt that Brexit has spooked the Nation. One of our longer term tracking questions asks if people

believe they will be financially better off, worse off or about the same this time next year. When we asked this last

in February, it measured a positive result for the first time since the crash (more said they would be better off than

worse off). This has regressed more recently. We are equally as likely to have a positive or negative outlook (22pc

each). What is of note however is that positivity was trending at 27pc up until the Friday of the Brexit

announcement, and slipped to 19pc once the announcement was made.

It illustrates that the Irish electorate are observant of the world around them and the implications that certain

decisions can have. Looking at the political turmoil across the water, it seems that for some of them, this trait was

sadly lacking.

Page 8: National Opinion Poll: June 2016 - Millward Brown...Brexit has cast, and will continue to cast, a long shadow over the political and economic fortunes of this country for some time

8.

National Opinion Poll: Party Support Trended Questions

Page 9: National Opinion Poll: June 2016 - Millward Brown...Brexit has cast, and will continue to cast, a long shadow over the political and economic fortunes of this country for some time

9. Q. If a General Election were to take place tomorrow, to which Party or independent candidate would you

give your first preference vote?

Party Support – First Preference – Including Don’t Knows

Base: All Aged 18+ (1,000) Opinion Poll

June 2016

Including

Don’t Knows

%

Opinion Poll

June 2016

Excluding

Don’t Knows

%

24 30

6

7

21

26 2

3

6

8

3

4

2

2

16

20 20

Independents/Others

Fianna Fáil

Fine Gael

Labour

Sinn Féin

Don’t know

Green Party

26

7

24

3

18

2 4

3

14

Independents/others

General

Election Result

2016

%

Fianna Fáil

Fine Gael

Labour

Sinn Féin

Green Party

Renua Ireland AAA-PBP

Social Democrats

AAA-PBP

Social Democrats Independents/

Others

Fianna Fáil

Fine Gael

Labour

Sinn Féin

Green Party

AAA-PBP

Social Democrats

Page 10: National Opinion Poll: June 2016 - Millward Brown...Brexit has cast, and will continue to cast, a long shadow over the political and economic fortunes of this country for some time

10. Q. If a General Election were to take place tomorrow, to which Party or independent candidate would you

give your first preference vote?

Party Support First Preference (excluding don’t knows)

Base: All giving a first preference

26 29 27 28 27 27 30 27 29 25 25 22 22 25 25 29 24

29 27 26 30

29 28

25 27 27 24 26

21 22

20 21 20 18

19 19

23 23

24 22 24

26

19 19 21 19 19 21

16 22 20

24 22 26 21

26 24

21 21

21 21

14

20

8 8 8 10 9 9 12

8 6 7 9 7

5

6 8 6

7

7 6

7

7 1 1

2 1 1 1

1 2 2 1 1 1

2

1 3 1 1

1 1

3

3

18 15 18 14 17 18 15 20 21 23 23 23

32 23 20 20 24

19 22 27

14 Independents/

others*

Green Party

Labour

Sinn Féin

Fianna Fáil

Fine Gael

June

20th–28th

2013

%

Aug

3rd-12th

2013

%

Aug

17th-27th

2013

%

Sep

13th–25th

2013

%

Sep 30th -

Oct 9th

%

Nov

3rd-13th

%

Jan

15th-24th

2014

%

Feb

19th-28th

2014

%

Apr

5th-15th

2014

%

Jul

18th–30th

2014

%

Sep

9th-18th

2014

%

Oct

21st–31st

2014

%

Dec

8th-18th

2014

%

Jan 30th

-Feb 9th

2015

%

Mar 24th

- Apr 2nd

2015

%

19th-26th

June

2015

%

19th-30th

July

2015

%

28th Oct-

6th Nov

2015

%

* Includes all other parties

25th Jan-

4th Feb

2016

%

General

Election

2016

%

18th -30th

June

2016

%

Independents/Others: June 2016

AAA-PBP 4%

Social Democrats 2%

Independent Candidates 8%

Page 11: National Opinion Poll: June 2016 - Millward Brown...Brexit has cast, and will continue to cast, a long shadow over the political and economic fortunes of this country for some time

11. Q. If a General Election were to take place tomorrow, to which Party or independent candidate would you

give your first preference vote?

Party Support First Preference (excluding don’t knows)

Base: All giving a first preference

* Includes all other parties

26

29 27

28 27 27

30

27 29

25 25

22 22

25 25

29

24

29 27

26

30 29

28

25 27 27

24 26

21 22

20 21

20 18

19 19

23 23 24

22 24

26

19 19 21

19 19 21

16

22 20

24 22

26

21

26 24

21 21 21 21

14

20

8 8 8 10

9 9

12

8 6

7 9

7 5

6 8

6 7 7

6 7 7

1 1 2

1 1 1 1 2 2

1 1 1 2

1 3

1 1 1 1 3 3

18

15

18

14

17 18

15

20 21

23 23 23

32

23

20 20

24

19

22

27

14

-

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

Jun 20th-28th 2013

Aug 3rd-12th 2013

Aug 17th-27th 2013

Sep 13th-25th 2013

Sep 30th-Oct 9th

Nov 3rd-13th

Jan 15th-24th 2014

Feb 19th-24th 2014

Apr 5th-15th 2014

Jul 18th-30th 2014

Sep 9th-18th 2014

Oct 21st-31st 2014

Dec 8th-18th 2014

Jan 29th-Feb 9th

2015

Mar 24th-Apr 2nd

2015

19th-26thJun 2015

19th-30thJul 2015

28th Oct-6th Nov

2015

25th Jan -4th Feb

2016

GeneralElection

2016

18th-30thJune 2016

Fine Gael Fianna Fail Sinn Fein Labour Green Party Independents/Others*

Independents/Others: June 2016

AAA-PBP 4%

Social Democrats 2%

Independent Candidates 8%

Page 12: National Opinion Poll: June 2016 - Millward Brown...Brexit has cast, and will continue to cast, a long shadow over the political and economic fortunes of this country for some time

12. Q. If a General Election were to take place tomorrow, to which Party or independent candidate would you

give your first preference vote?

Trended Party Support First Preference (excluding don’t knows)

Base: All giving a first preference

*ULA now included in Independents/others from late May onwards

*People Before Profit now included in Independents/others (July 2014)

27 28 27 27 30

27 29

25 25 22 22

25 25 29

24

29 27 26

30

25 27 27

24 26

21 22 20 21 20

18 19 19 23 23 24

22 24

26

21 19 19

21

16

22 20

24 22

26

21

26 24

21 21 21 21

14

20

8 10 9 9

12 8

6 7 9

7 5 6

8 6 7 7 6 7 7

18 14

17 18 15

20 21 23 23 23

32

23 20 20

24

19 22

27

14

INDEPENDENTS OTHERS*

LABOUR

SINN FÉIN FIANNA FÁIL FINE GAEL

Page 13: National Opinion Poll: June 2016 - Millward Brown...Brexit has cast, and will continue to cast, a long shadow over the political and economic fortunes of this country for some time

13.

Satisfaction with this new Government’s performance is

similar to the previous one; nearly three in ten are happy

Q. Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way the Government is running the country?

Base: All Aged 18+ (1,000)

HIGHER AMONG %

Males 33

Age 65+ 33

ABs 43

Dublin Residents 32

Fine Gael Supporters 66

Labour Supporters 34

60%

28%

11% Don’t know (9%)

Dissatisfied (62%) Satisfied

(29%)

HIGHER AMONG %

Age 55-64 65

DEs 67

Munster Residents 67

Fianna Fáil Supporters 70

Sinn Féin Supporters 86

Independents Supporters 80

Nearly Three in ten are happy

( )= Feb 2016 Poll Results

Page 14: National Opinion Poll: June 2016 - Millward Brown...Brexit has cast, and will continue to cast, a long shadow over the political and economic fortunes of this country for some time

14.

Satisfaction with Government Over Time

Base: All Aged 18+ (1,000)

75 73 72 71 73 74 68 71

66 69 62

73 71 68 69 63 67

60 62 60

17 19 19 20 21 19

23 20 24

23 27

21 19 23

26 29 25

32 29 28

7 7 10 9 6 7 10 9 9 8 11 6

9 9 5 8 8 8 9 11

Dissatisfied

Satisfied

Don’t know

June

20th–28th

‘13

%

Aug

3rd-12th

‘13

%

Aug

17th-27th

‘13

%

Sept

13th-25th

’13

%

Sept 30th -

Oct 9th

‘13

%

Nov

3rd-13th

‘13

%

Jan

15th-24th

‘14

%

Feb

19th–28th

2014

%

Apr

5th-15th

2013

%

Jul 18th–30th

2014 %

Sep 9th–18th 2014

%

Oct 21st–31st

2014 %

Dec 8th–18th 2014

%

2014 results

2013 results

Jan 30th – Feb 9th 2015

%

2015 results

Mar 24th

- Apr 2nd

2015

%

19th-26th

June

2015

%

19th-30th

July

2015

%

28th Oct-

6th Nov

2015

%

25th Jan-

4th Feb

2016

%

18th-30th

June

2016

%

2016 results

Page 15: National Opinion Poll: June 2016 - Millward Brown...Brexit has cast, and will continue to cast, a long shadow over the political and economic fortunes of this country for some time

15.

Q. Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with Enda Kenny as Taoiseach?

Q. Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Brendan Howlin is doing his job as leader of Labour?

Q. Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Michéal Martin is doing his job as leader of Fianna Fáil?

Q. Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Gerry Adams is doing his job as leader of Sinn Féin?

Satisfaction with Party Leaders

Satisfied

Dissatisfied

31 25 21 24 27

32 25

31 27 27 30 28 22 23 25 26

20 24 22 27 30 29

24 29 30

36 32 32 27

43

28 27 23 29 32 30 30 27 27 31

58 67 69

64 67 59

66 60 62 63

48 56

62 61 65 57

65 62 62

43 48

54 56 49

57

45 49 49 48 38

48 56 57

50 56 52 51 55 51 51

Enda Kenny Joan Burton Michéal Martin Gerry Adams

Don’t know (11) (8) (10) (12) (7) (9) (9) (9) (11) (11)

Sep ’14 %

Oct ’14 %

Dec ’14 %

Feb ’15 %

(22) (17) (16) (16) (11) (16) (14) (14) (16) (30) (21) (17) (20) (22) (13) (19) (19) (20) (25) (18) (24) (17) (20) (21) (12) (18) (19) (18) (21) (18)

Mar/ Apr ’15 %

June ’15 %

July ’15 %

Oct/ Nov ’15 %

Base: All Aged 18+ (1,000)

Feb ’16 %

Jun ’16 %

Sep ’14 %

Oct ’14 %

Dec ’14 %

Feb ’15 %

Mar/ Apr ’15 %

June ’15 %

July ’15 %

Oct/ Nov ’15 %

Feb ’16 %

Jun ’16 %

Sep ’14 %

Oct ’14 %

Dec ’14 %

Feb ’15 %

Mar/ Apr ’15 %

June ’15 %

July ’15 %

Oct/ Nov ’15 %

Feb ’16 %

Jun ’16 %

Sep ’14 %

Oct ’14 %

Dec ’14 %

Feb ’15 %

Mar/ Apr ’15 %

June ’15 %

July ’15 %

Oct/ Nov ’15 %

Feb ’16 %

Jun ’16 %

Brendan Howlin

Page 16: National Opinion Poll: June 2016 - Millward Brown...Brexit has cast, and will continue to cast, a long shadow over the political and economic fortunes of this country for some time

16. Q. Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with Enda Kenny as Taoiseach?

Satisfaction with An Taoiseach Enda Kenny

HIGHER AMONG %

Age 65+ 33

ABs 38

Dublin Residents 31

Fine Gael Supporters 64

Labour Supporters 47 63%

27%

11%

Don’t know (11%)

Dissatisfied (62%) Satisfied

(27%)

HIGHER AMONG %

Age 45-54 71

DEs 71

Munster Residents 71

Fianna Fáil Supporters 81

Sinn Féin Supporters 86

Independents Supporters 79

Base: All Aged 18+ (1,000)

( )= Feb 2016 Poll Results

Page 17: National Opinion Poll: June 2016 - Millward Brown...Brexit has cast, and will continue to cast, a long shadow over the political and economic fortunes of this country for some time

17. Q. Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Brendan Howlin is doing his job as leader of Labour?

Satisfaction with Brendan Howlin

HIGHER AMONG %

Age 65+ 37

Dublin Residents 36

Fine Gael Supporters 45

Labour Supporters 63 43%

27%

30%

Don’t know

Dissatisfied

Satisfied

HIGHER AMONG %

Age 45-54 53

Sinn Féin Supporters 62

Independents Supporters 50

Base: All Aged 18+ (1,000)

Page 18: National Opinion Poll: June 2016 - Millward Brown...Brexit has cast, and will continue to cast, a long shadow over the political and economic fortunes of this country for some time

18.

38%

43%

18%

Q. Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Michéal Martin is doing his job as leader of Fianna Fáil?

Satisfaction with Michéal Martin

HIGHER AMONG %

Age 55-64 55

Munster Residents 51

Farming Community 48

Fianna Fáil Supporters 77

Fine Gael Supporters 52

Don’t know (25%)

Dissatisfied (48%)

Satisfied (27%)

HIGHER AMONG %

Age 45-54 50

Leinster Residents 45

Labour Supporters 43

Sinn Féin Supporters 60

Independents Supporters 54

Base: All Aged 18+ (1,000)

( )= Feb 2016 Poll Results

Page 19: National Opinion Poll: June 2016 - Millward Brown...Brexit has cast, and will continue to cast, a long shadow over the political and economic fortunes of this country for some time

19.

51%

31%

18%

Q. Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Gerry Adams is doing his job as leader of Sinn Féin?

Satisfaction with Gerry Adams

Don’t know (21%)

Dissatisfied (51%)

Satisfied (27%)

HIGHER AMONG %

Age 25-34 39

C2DEs 38

Munster Residents 40

Sinn Féin Supporters 82

HIGHER AMONG %

Age 65+ 66

ABs 64

Fianna Fáil Supporters 66

Fine Gael Supporters 61

Labour Supporters 58

Independent Supporters 70

Base: All Aged 18+ (1,000)

( )= Feb 2016 Poll Results

Page 20: National Opinion Poll: June 2016 - Millward Brown...Brexit has cast, and will continue to cast, a long shadow over the political and economic fortunes of this country for some time

20.

Satisfaction with Party Leaders X Party Support

SATISFIED

DISSATISFIED

27%

27%

43%

31%

Enda Kenny

Brendan Howlin

Michéal Martin

Gerry Adams

Total

63%

43%

38%

51%

31 44 81 86 79

29 30 44 62 50

32 43 18 60 54

61 58 66 12 65

Supporters %

Supporters %

Supporters %

Supporters %

Independent/ Other Party Supporters*

%

64 47 12 7 14

45 63 29 11 17

52 44 77 25 32

24 24 22 82 24

Enda Kenny

Brendan Howlin

Michéal Martin

Gerry Adams

* Includes all other parties

Base: All Aged 18+ (1,000)

Q. Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with Enda Kenny as Taoiseach?

Q. Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Brendan Howlin is doing his job as leader of Labour?

Q. Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Michéal Martin is doing his job as leader of Fianna Fáil?

Q. Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Gerry Adams is doing his job as leader of Sinn Féin?

Page 21: National Opinion Poll: June 2016 - Millward Brown...Brexit has cast, and will continue to cast, a long shadow over the political and economic fortunes of this country for some time

21. Q. Which of the following parties or political groupings would you NOT consider voting for in any upcoming election?

Which Parties are most toxic to whom? Fianna Fáil remain

the least toxic of the main parties

WOULD NOT

CONSIDER

35%

28%

25%

40%

16%

17%

18%

8%

Fine Gael (34)

Labour (31)

Fianna Fáil (24)

Sinn Féin (37)

Socialist Party (19)

AAA-People Before

Profit (16)

Green Party (n/a)

Social Democrats (9)

Total Supporters %

Supporters %

Supporters %

Supporters %

Independent/ Other party Supporters*

%

- 28 35 70 55

15 - 32 45 41

17 29 - 46 50

59 44 55 - 40

23 12 22 12 13

25 15 21 11 12

20 10 25 21 14

10 6 10 9 5

* Includes all other parties ( )= Feb 2016 Poll Results

Base: All Aged 18+ (1,000)

Page 22: National Opinion Poll: June 2016 - Millward Brown...Brexit has cast, and will continue to cast, a long shadow over the political and economic fortunes of this country for some time

22.

National Opinion Poll: June 2016 - Additional Questions for Publication on 3rd July 2016

Page 23: National Opinion Poll: June 2016 - Millward Brown...Brexit has cast, and will continue to cast, a long shadow over the political and economic fortunes of this country for some time

23. Q. Do you think that Enda Kenny should remain as leader of Fine Gael, or should he resign?

Over half believe that Enda Kenny should resign; Just 54pc of

FG supporters remain loyal to him

56%

25%

12% 7%

HIGHER AMONG %

Age 65+ 33

ABs 32

Conn/Ulster Residents 31

Fine Gael Supporters 54

Labour Supporters 33

HIGHER AMONG %

Age 55-64 61

DEs 62

Munster Residents 63

Fianna Fáil Supporters 72

Sinn Féin Supporters 77

Independents Supporters 69

Should Remain

Don’t know

Should Resign

It depends

Base: All Aged 18+ (1,000)

Page 24: National Opinion Poll: June 2016 - Millward Brown...Brexit has cast, and will continue to cast, a long shadow over the political and economic fortunes of this country for some time

24.

Leo Varadkar is the preferred option for Fine Gael leader in

the event of Kenny resigning

%

25

18

7

3

3

10

6

29

Leo Varadkar

Simon Coveney

Frances Fitzgerald

Simon Harris

Pascal Donoghue

None of them

Somebody else

Don't know

Among FG Supporters: %

Leo Varadkar 30

Simon Coveney 26

Frances Fitzgerald 7

Pascal Donoghue 4

Simon Harris 3

None of them 5

Somebody else 3

Don’t know 21

Base: All Aged 18+ (1,000)

Q. If Enda Kenny were to resign as leader of Fine Gael, who would you like to see replace him?

Page 25: National Opinion Poll: June 2016 - Millward Brown...Brexit has cast, and will continue to cast, a long shadow over the political and economic fortunes of this country for some time

25.

Majority believe the Government will last no more than 2

years, although post-Brexit opinions have shifted

%

10

27

16

19

7

3

5

2

11

Up to six months

Up to a year

Up to 18 months

Up to two years

Up to three years

Up to four years

It will last full term

It Depends

Don’t know

Base: All Aged 18+ (1,000)

Q. In your own opinion, how long do you think the current Government will last in office?

Total

%

FG

%

FF

%

LAB

%

SF

%

Others

%

Pre-

Brexit

%

Post-

Brexit

%

Up to 1 year 37 21 40 31 59 41 39 36

18 months to 2 years 35 51 36 44 25 35 29 38

3 years + 16 19 17 18 11 18 18 14

Page 26: National Opinion Poll: June 2016 - Millward Brown...Brexit has cast, and will continue to cast, a long shadow over the political and economic fortunes of this country for some time

26.

17

53

28

2

Q. Taking everything into consideration would you say you are

personally better off, worse off or in the same situation as

you were THIS TIME LAST YEAR?

Better Off (16)

Same (48)

Worse Off (33)

Net Difference* (-17)

Compared to last year

%

-11

%

22

48

22

8

This time next year? June 2015

Q. This time NEXT YEAR, do you think that you

personally will be better off, worse off or in

the same situation as you are now?

Don’t know (3)

Personal situation: Over half feel no better off compared to

last year and opinions are split for the year ahead. Brexit

has spooked the nation

June 2017

Base: All Aged 18+ (1,000)

() = Feb 2016 Results

Better Off (23)

Same (43)

Worse Off (17)

Net Difference* (+6) 0

Don’t know (17)

*= Better off minus worse off

Total

%

Pre-

Brexit

%

Post-

Brexit

%

Better off 22 27 19

Same 48 46 49

Worse off 22 20 24

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27. Q. This time next year, do you think that you personally will be better off, worse off or in the same

situation as you are now?

Historical Picture: Personal Situation Compared To This Time Last Year. Trended over time

17

27 24

27

11

5 6 7 10

4 4 7 6 8 8

12 13 11 16 16 16 17

49

59 60

46 43

29 34 33 32

27

33 29 31 32

27 31

43

40 39

48 48 53

34

15 16

27

46

66

59 60 57

68

61 63 64 59

64

57

41

43 40 35 33

28

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

PreCeltic

Tiger '92

MidCeltic

Tiger '97

Post9/11 '02

Sep '08 Jan '09 Apr '09 Sep '09 Mar '10 Sep '10 Jan '11 Mar '11 Sep '11 Jan '12 Jul'12 Mar '13 Oct '13 Jul '14 Dec '14 July '15 Oct/Nov'15

Feb '16 Jun '16

Net Change

-17 +12 +8 +0 -35 -61 -53 -53 -47 -64 -57 -56 -58 -51 -56 -45 -28 -32 -24 -19 -17 -11

COMPARED TO LAST YEAR

BETTER OFF

SAME

WORSE OFF

Base: All Aged 18+ (1,000)

Page 28: National Opinion Poll: June 2016 - Millward Brown...Brexit has cast, and will continue to cast, a long shadow over the political and economic fortunes of this country for some time

28. Q. This time next year, do you think that you personally will be better off, worse off or in the same

situation as you are now?

Historical Picture: Personal Situation This Time Next Year. Trended over time

36

28 26 22

25 29 29 30

33 29 31

26

32

16 15 18 17 17

11 13 12 10 13

10 11 14

17 18 15

19 20 23 22

54

62 64 68 68

63 62 59 58

61 58

63

45

38 33 35

44

37

31

39

33 32 34

28 30

36

50

41 44

41 46

43 48

10

9 8

8 7 7 9 11 9 10 11 11

23

46

52

41

34 40

52

39

50 52 47

59 54

45

27

33 31 29

22 17

22

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

89 90 91Pre Celtic Tiger '9293 94 95 96Mid Celtic Tiger '9798 00 Post 9/11 '02Sept '08 Jan '09 Apr '09 Set '09 Mar '10 Sept '10 Jan '11 Mar '11 Sept '11 Jan '12 Jul'12 Dec'12 Mar '13 Oct '13 Dec '13 Jul '14 Dec '14 July '15Oct/Nov '15Feb '16 Jun '16

THIS TIME NEXT YEAR?

BETTER OFF

SAME

WORSE OFF

NET DIFFERENCE

+26 +19 +18 +14 +18 +22 +20 +19 +24 +19 +20 +15 +9 -30 -37 -23 -17 -23 -41 -26 -38 -42 -34 -49 -43 -31 -10 -15 -16 -10 -2 +6 0

Base: All Aged 18+ (1,000)

Page 29: National Opinion Poll: June 2016 - Millward Brown...Brexit has cast, and will continue to cast, a long shadow over the political and economic fortunes of this country for some time

29. Q. Do you believe that internment without trial is an appropriate response for those who Gardai believe to be

involved in Gangland activity or not?

In the case of Gangland activity, nearly half are hawkish –

they feel that internment without trial is appropriate

32%

46%

13%

9%

HIGHER AMONG %

Age 35-44 52

Age 65+ 51

Munster Residents 52

Fianna Fáil Supporters 52

Fine Gael Supporters 52

Labour Supporters 54

HIGHER AMONG %

Age 45-54 37

ABs 42

Independents Supporters 43

Labour Supporters 37

Yes, it is an appropriate response

Don’t know

No, it is not appropriate

response

It depends

Base: All Aged 18+ (1,000)

IS INTERNMENT APPROPRIATE?

Page 30: National Opinion Poll: June 2016 - Millward Brown...Brexit has cast, and will continue to cast, a long shadow over the political and economic fortunes of this country for some time

30.

For more information, please contact: Paul Moran

[email protected] 086 341 1970

Millbank House | Arkle Road | Sandyford | Dublin 18

t. +353 (1) 297 4500 | www.millwardbrown.com/ie