National Integrated Drought Information System

National Integrated Drought Information SystemSoutheast US Pilot for Apalachicola-Chattahooche-Flint River Basin09 October 2012

OutlineWelcome – Keith Ingram, UF, SECCCurrent drought status and how we got here – David

Zierden, FSU, Florida Climate CenterStreamflows and groundwater – Tony Gotvald, USGSSummary of lake conditions – Bailey Crane, USACESalinity of Apalachicola Bay – Jenna Wanat, ANERRSeasonal outlooks – David Zierden, FSUStreamflow forecasts – Jeff Dobur, SE RFC

Current drought status from Drought Monitor

http://www.drought.unl.edu/dm/monitor.html

Persistent Troughing Pattern

7 Day Precipitation Totals

Cumulative Rainfall Deficits

Past 30 days

Since Jan. 1

http://water.weather.gov/precip/

Realtime stream flow compared with historical monthly averages

Current:

http://waterwatch.usgs.gov

Previous Brief:

Below Normal 7-day Average Streamflows

Below normal 7-day average streamflow as compared with

historical streamflow for day shown

http://waterwatch.usgs.gov

Current:

Previous brief:

Lake Lanier Inflows

http://waterwatch.usgs.gov

Chestatee near Dahlonega (02333500)

Chattahoochee near Cornelia (02331600)

Current Streamflows

Chattahoochee at West Point (02339500)

Flint at Bainbridge (02356000)

http://waterwatch.usgs.gov

Streamflows

Apalachicola at Chattahoochee (02358000)

http://waterwatch.usgs.gov

Groundwater Status

http://groundwaterwatch.usgs.gov

Miller County, GA(Upper Floridan Aquifer)

USACE – ACF Operations

Average Inflow into ACF Projects By Month

2012HISTORICAL 2012 % HISTORICAL 2012 % HISTORICAL 2012 % HISTORICAL 2012 %

AVG AVG NORMAL AVG AVG NORMAL AVG AVG NORMAL AVG AVG NORMAL HISTORICAL 2011 % (CFS ) (CFS ) (CFS ) (CFS ) (CFS ) (CFS ) (CFS ) (CFS ) (CFS ) (CFS )

J AN 2556 2294 90% 4059 2958 73% 5846 3642 62% 14887 4260 29% 27347 13154 48%FEB 2837 1350 48% 4957 1982 40% 7407 3935 53% 18838 5215 28% 34039 12482 37%MAR 3249 1870 58% 5865 3388 58% 9578 2178 23% 21180 8785 41% 39873 16221 41%APR 2699 1206 45% 4289 642 15% 6312 1622 26% 17241 4406 26% 30541 7877 26%MAY 2067 1056 51% 3048 788 26% 3070 953 31% 11544 2812 24% 19728 5608 28%J UN 1571 558 36% 2143 204 10% 2206 811 37% 9235 2664 29% 15155 4237 28%J UL 1338 694 52% 2109 411 20% 2709 575 21% 9597 1732 18% 15753 3412 22%AUG 1186 690 58% 1342 198 15% 1711 829 48% 7748 2774 36% 11987 4492 37%SEP 1084 440 41% 1369 -215 -16% 1333 97 7% 6376 2623 41% 10163 2945 29%OCT 1194 5398 452% 1505 1794 119% 1726 846 49% 6650 3149 47% 11075 11187 101%NOV 1478 0% 2363 0% 2538 0% 6882 0% 13260 0 0%DEC 2003 0% 2874 0% 3969 0% 10065 0% 18911 0 0%

YTD 2065 1556 75% 3242 1215 37% 4034 1549 38% 11687 3842 33% 20653 6801 33%

2012HISTORICAL 2012 % HISTORICAL 2012 % HISTORICAL 2012 % HISTORICAL 2012 %

AVG AVG NORMAL AVG AVG NORMAL AVG AVG NORMAL AVG AVG NORMAL HISTORICAL 2012 % (CFS ) (CFS ) (CFS ) (CFS ) (CFS ) (CFS ) (CFS ) (CFS ) (CFS ) (CFS )

J AN 2556 2294 90% 5798 3695 64% 12322 6883 56% 26373 10747 41% 47050 23619 50%FEB 2837 1350 48% 6816 2695 40% 14873 5779 39% 32919 10196 31% 57445 20020 35%MAR 3249 1870 58% 7889 4001 51% 17528 6316 36% 38281 17072 45% 66948 29260 44%APR 2699 1206 45% 6508 2205 34% 13190 4380 55% 32317 9536 30% 54714 17328 32%MAY 2067 1056 51% 5036 1901 38% 8659 2656 31% 20188 4986 25% 35950 10599 29%J UN 1571 558 36% 3861 1274 33% 6621 2258 34% 16098 5022 31% 28152 9113 32%J UL 1338 694 52% 3927 1552 40% 6843 2843 42% 16196 5087 31% 28303 10176 36%AUG 1186 690 58% 3390 1377 41% 5987 2371 40% 13748 4684 34% 24312 9121 38%SEP 1084 440 41% 3459 953 28% 5257 1622 31% 11783 4705 40% 21583 7719 36%OCT 1194 5398 452% 3325 2761 83% 5402 3077 57% 11967 5030 42% 21889 16265 74%NOV 1478 0% 4016 0% 6870 0% 13702 0% 26065 0 0%DEC 2003 0% 4695 0% 9936 0% 20116 0% 36750 0 0%

YTD 2065 1556 75% 4893 2241 46% 9457 3818 40% 21141 7707 36% 37430 12768 34%

BUFORD LOCALS WEST POINT LOCALS GEORGE LOCALS

GEORGE INFLOWS WEST POINT INFLOWS BUFORD INFLOWS

WOODRUFF LOCALS ACF TOTAL

ACF TOTAL WOODRUFF INFLOWS

Lake Lanier

1035.00

1040.00

1045.00

1050.00

1055.00

1060.00

1065.00

1070.00

1075.00Lanier Action Zones and Actual 2012 Elevations

Top of Conservation

Zone 1

Zone 2

Zone 3

Zone 4

Bottom of Conservation

Elevation in FT NGVD

1-Jan 1-Feb 1-Mar 1-Apr 1-May 1-Jun 1-Jul 1-Aug 1-Sep 1-Oct 1-Nov 1-Dec

Record Low Elevations 1960-2011

Actual data thru October 9, 2012

2012 Actual Elevation Forecast Elevation Historical Average Elevation Record Low Elevation (1960-2011)

West Point

620.00

622.00

624.00

626.00

628.00

630.00

632.00

634.00

636.00

638.00

640.00West Point Action Zones and Actual 2012 ElevationsElevation in FT MSL

Top of Conservation

Zone 1

Zone 2

Zone 3

Zone 4

Bottom of Conservation

1-Jan 1-Feb 1-Mar 1-Apr 1-May 1-Jun 1-Jul 1-Aug 1-Sep 1-Oct 1-Nov 1-Dec

Actual data thru October 9, 2012 2012 Actual Elevation Forecast Elevation Historical Average Elevation

W.F. George

184.00

185.00

186.00

187.00

188.00

189.00

190.00

191.00

192.00W.F. George Action Zones and Actual 2012 ElevationsElevation in FT MSL

Zone 1

Zone 2

Zone 3

Zone 4

1-Jan 1-Feb 1-Mar 1-Apr 1-May 1-Jun 1-Jul 1-Aug 1-Sep 1-Oct 1-Nov 1-Dec

Bottom of Conser-vation

Top of Conservation

Actual data thru October 9, 2012

2012 Actual Elevation Forecast Elevation Historical Average Elevation

Woodruff

75.00

75.50

76.00

76.50

77.00

77.50

78.00

78.50Elevation in FT NGVD

1-Jan 1-Feb 1-Mar 1-Apr 1-May 1-Jun 1-Jul 1-Aug 1-Sep 1-Oct 1-Nov 1-Dec

Maximum Operating Level

Actual data thru October 9, 2012

2012 Actual Elevation Forecast Elevation

2012 ACF Basin Composite Conservation & Flood Storage

Dry Bar

Cat Point

Apalachicola National Estuarine Research Reserve

East Bay

1/1 1/15 1/29 2/12 2/26 3/11 3/25 4/8 4/22 5/6 5/20 6/3 6/17 7/1 7/15 7/29 8/12 8/26 9/9 9/23 10/7 10/21 11/4 11/18 12/2 12/1612/300

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

Daily Average Salinity at East Bay Bottom

76-90th percentile 25-75th percentile 10-24th percentile lowest-10th percentile 0th P 2012

Day of the Year

Salin

ity (p

pt)

1/1 1/15 1/29 2/12 2/26 3/11 3/25 4/8 4/22 5/6 5/20 6/3 6/17 7/1 7/15 7/29 8/12 8/26 9/9 9/23 10/7 10/21 11/4 11/18 12/2 12/1612/300

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45Daily Average Salinity at Cat Point

76-90th percentile 25-75th percentile 10-24th percentile lowest-10th percentile 0th p 2012

Day of the Year

Salin

ity (p

pt)

1/1 1/15 1/29 2/12 2/26 3/11 3/25 4/8 4/22 5/6 5/20 6/3 6/17 7/1 7/15 7/29 8/12 8/26 9/9 9/23 10/7 10/21 11/4 11/18 12/2 12/1612/300

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45Daily Average Salinity at Dry Bar

76-90th percentile 25-75th percentile 10-24th percentile lowest-10th percentile 0th p 2012

Day of the Year

Salin

ity (p

pt)

5-Day Precipitation Forecast

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/day1-5.shtml

7-day average Pacific Ocean SST Anomalies

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/enso.shtml

Near Surface Winds

Multivariate ENSO Index

1-3 Month Precipitation Outlook

1 Month

3 Month

Fall Rainfall Climatology

U.S. Drought Outlook

Tropical Outlook

Above Normal

Near Normal

Below Normal

1-Month Streamflow Forecasts

Apalachicola WatershedSoutheast River Forecast Center

Lake Lanier Inflows

Whitesburg

West Point

Columbus

WF George

Columbus

Woodruff

Blountstown

Lovejoy

Carsonville

Albany

October 4 – November 4th 2012

Above Normal

Near Normal

Below Normal

3-Month Mean Daily Streamflow Forecasts

Apalachicola WatershedSoutheast River Forecast Center

Lake Lanier Inflows

Whitesburg

West Point

Columbus

WF George

Columbus

Woodruff

Blountstown

October 4th 2012 – January 4th 2013

Lovejoy

Carsonville

Albany

10%

44%46%

57%23%

20% 40%37%

23%

50%33%

17%

58%

27%15%

Summary• Persistent troughing and slow-moving frontal

boundaries have kept the Southeast and ACF basin in a moist pattern during the past two weeks, which has decreased the area of the ACF that is still under drought.

• A small area in the northern part of the basin received from 4 to 6 inches during the past 7 days. The rest of the basin received 0.25 to 3 inches.

• Streamflows recovered sharply in the northern part of the basin, but the southern streamflows are still at or below the historical low observations.

Summary• Ground water levels in the southern part of the

basin remain near historical low observations.• Reservoir levels have recovered slightly, but

remain well below the historical average and mostly within conservation zone 3.

• Salinity levels in Apalachicola Bay are near 20 ppt at East Bay Bottom, 22 ppt at Dry Bar, but are about 30 ppt at Cat Point, which is above the level that can injure oysters.

Summary• The 5-day precipitation forecast for calls for no rain in the

basin.• Sea surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific Ocean

have dropped considerably since late August are now firmly in the Neutral range, which diminshes the likelihood that El Niño will develop.

• ENSO Neutral conditions are still more favorable than La Niña for a fall and winter recharge, so the 1-month rainfall outlook calls for slightly above average rainfall in the southern part of the basin and the 3-month outlook calls for above average rainfall throughout the entire basin.

Summary• The 1-month streamflow forecast for Lake Lanier

inflows has changed to the normal range but all other locations remain below normal.

• The 3-month streamflow forecasts show that streamflows are likely to be normal or above normal for Lake Lanier, but for all other locations have the highest probability of below normal streamflows, though the probabilities of normal and above normal streamflows have increased during the past two weeks.

ReferencesSpeakers

David Zierden, FSUTony Gotvald, USGSBailey Crane, US ACEJenna Wanat, ANERRJeff Dobur, SERFC

ModeratorKeith Ingram, UF/SECC

Additional informationGeneral drought information

http://drought.gov http://www.drought.unl.edu

General climate and El Niño information http://agroclimate.org/climate/

Streamflow monitoring & forecastinghttp://waterwatch.usgs.gov http://www.srh.noaa.gov/serfc/

Groundwater monitoringhttp://groundwaterwatch.usgs.gov

Thank you!

Next briefing 23 October 2012, 1:00 pm EST

Slides from this briefing will be posted at http://www.drought.gov/portal/server.pt/community/acfrb

Please send comments and suggestions to:[email protected]