SOURAV SIR’S CLASSES {98367 93076 } 1 MACROECONOMICS BY SOURAV SIR’S CLASSES INTRODUCTION The purpose of this topic is to study how the gross national product is measuring the economic activity of a nation. The concept is defined and explained. The components are analyzed in the expenditure and the income approach, and the two are reconciled. Adjustments for inflation are presented. The concept is compared to other measures of economic welfare. NATIONAL INCOME ACCOUNTING National income accounting is used to determine the level of economic activity of a country. Two methods are used and the results reconciled: the expenditure approach sums what has been purchased during the year and the income approach sums what has been earned during the year. Just as firms need to know how well they are doing, so does a country. National income accounting provides the statistics to determine if the economy is encountering difficulties. GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT The gross national product is the sum total of all final goods and services produced by the people of one country in one year. The GNP is a flow concept. It can be calculated with either the expenditure approach or the income approach. The GNP excludes intermediate goods, second hand sales as well as financial transactions. The GNP is a money amount and must be adjusted for changes in the value of money. The goal of gross national product is to measure the physical activity of a nation by adding all the different types of productions: production of cars, production of computers, etc... But adding cars and computers does not make much sense. Therefore, the prices of these goods are summed. GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT The gross domestic product is the sum of all the final goods and services produced by the residents of a country in one year. Summing the production of residents (rather than nationals as in GNP) gives often a more accurate picture of the level of activity in a country. The difference between GDP and GNP is net unilateral transfers and factor income of foreigners. Countries which have many foreign firms operating within their territory, have a gross domestic product larger than the gross national product. On the
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SOURAV SIR’S CLASSES {98367 93076 }
1
MACROECONOMICS
BY
SOURAV SIR’S CLASSES
INTRODUCTION
The purpose of this topic is to study how the gross national product is measuring the economic
activity of a nation. The concept is defined and explained. The components are analyzed in the
expenditure and the income approach, and the two are reconciled. Adjustments for inflation are
presented. The concept is compared to other measures of economic welfare.
NATIONAL INCOME ACCOUNTING
National income accounting is used to determine the level of economic activity of a country.
Two methods are used and the results reconciled: the expenditure approach sums what has been
purchased during the year and the income approach sums what has been earned during the year.
Just as firms need to know how well they are doing, so does a country.
National income accounting provides the statistics to determine if the
economy is encountering difficulties.
GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT
The gross national product is the sum total of all final goods and services produced by the people
of one country in one year. The GNP is a flow concept. It can be calculated with either the
expenditure approach or the income approach. The GNP excludes intermediate goods, second
hand sales as well as financial transactions. The GNP is a money amount and must be adjusted
for changes in the value of money.
The goal of gross national product is to measure the physical activity of a
nation by adding all the different types of productions: production of cars,
production of computers, etc... But adding cars and computers does not make
much sense. Therefore, the prices of these goods are summed.
GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT
The gross domestic product is the sum of all the final goods and services produced by the
residents of a country in one year. Summing the production of residents (rather than nationals as
in GNP) gives often a more accurate picture of the level of activity in a country.
The difference between GDP and GNP is net unilateral transfers and
factor income of foreigners.
Countries which have many foreign firms operating within their territory,
have a gross domestic product larger than the gross national product. On the
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contrary, countries, such as the United States or Japan, which have firms
operating in foreign countries, have a gross domestic product smaller than
the gross national product (the net factor income from foreigners is negative).
INTERMEDIATE GOODS
Intermediate goods are goods which are made part of some final good. For instance, tires are
intermediate goods when they are part of a car. Tires are final goods when they are sold
separately as replacement parts. Incorporating intermediate goods to form a final good adds
value to that good.
Almost all metals and crude oil are part of intermediate goods: they are not
counted separately, but as part of the final good in which they are
incorporated. Tires purchased by customers to replace used tires are final
consumption; but, not the tires installed on new cars: these are intermediate
goods.
VALUE ADDED
GNP can be calculated by adding up all the value added from the intermediate goods (the result
is exactly the same). Countries with tax systems based on value added taxes prefer this method.
The work performed to assemble a car from its many components (such as
windshield, tires, motor, and so on), is the value added in a car assembly
plant. Such a value added can also be calculated by taking the difference
between the selling price and the costs of all material and goods used in the
product sold.
EXPENDITURE APPROACH
GDP can be calculated as the sum of all expenditures: personal consumption expenditure (C),
gross private domestic investment (Ig), government purchases (G), and net exports (Xn).
GDP = C + Ig + G + Xn.
The expenditure approach sums all that is purchased: in a sense, it is
equivalent to the income approach because purchases are only possible if
income is present.
PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURE
Personal consumption expenditure is what households buy (except houses). It is made of
durables (cars, appliances), nondurables (clothing, food) and services (haircuts, doctor visits,
airline tickets). A convention is made on nondurables to be all items which last less than a year,
including clothing. Nondurables expenditure is the most stable component of personal
consumption expenditure.
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People buy all kinds of goods and services. Services are, for example,
transportation, communication, banking and insurance. Durable goods
include furniture, appliances, equipment, cars, etc.. Nondurable goods are all
items which would normally be consumed within a year: food, fuel,
stationary, and by convention also clothing.
GROSS PRIVATE DOMESTIC INVESTMENT
Gross private domestic investment is made of 1) new construction, 2) new capital (machines,
trucks and equipment), and 3) changes in inventory. It excludes investment made by government
and investment made outside the country. New construction includes all forms of new building,
be it for rental purpose or for private residential purpose. Changes in inventory captures the
goods produced in one year and sold in future years.
When a company builds a plant and installs machinery and equipment: that is
an investment, i.e. an increase in capital. By convention, a private house is
considered an investment. The reason is that a private house may later be
rented and it is not possible to know for which purpose, rental or private use,
a house is built in the first place.
CAPITAL CONSUMPTION ALLOWANCE
Capital consumption allowance is the part of new capital produced during one year, which is
needed to replace the capital used up during that year. It is also known as depreciation. Capital
consumption allowance (CCA) is equal to the difference between gross investment (Ig) and net
investment (In):
CCA = Ig - In.
All machines and equipment used to produce other goods, are subject to
some wear and tear. Part of capital goods production must be devoted to
replace this wear and tear. Otherwise, the productive capacity of a nation
would be depleted. This replacement of the capital used is capital
consumption allowance.
NET INVESTMENT
Net private domestic investment is equal to gross private domestic investment less capital
consumption allowance. It is the most sensitive component of GDP. When it is negative it
implies that the capital stock is being depleted and production has to be decreasing. Economic
growth is implied in a positive net private domestic investment.
The productive capacity of a nation will increase only if net investment is
positive. This can easily be verified at the level of a single plant: the number
of new machines installed in any given year must be greater than the
machines that have been used up during that year.
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GOVERNMENT PURCHASES
Government purchases combine all goods and services bought by all forms of government: form
paper clips to bridges and hospitals. This does not include government payment for work or any
transfer payment.
As a single entity, the government is the largest purchaser in a nation. It buys
all kinds of products: from hospitals and bridges, to paper and pens (so we
can fill out all these forms). It also spends large sums on services such as
those provided by firemen and policemen.
NET EXPORTS
Net exports is the difference between total exports and total imports. It is equal to the trade or
merchandise balance of payments. When imports exceed exports (and the balance of payments is
in deficit), the amount shown as net exports is negative.
American exports, such as computers, airplanes and various crops, are all
items produced which are sold to foreigners. Imports, on the contrary, are
items produced by foreigners on which Americans spend some of their
income.
INCOME APPROACH
The income approach sums all income derived from productive activities.
If we compare a nation to a business, the income approach would be an
allocation of the funds generated from the sales of one year (net of costs of
intermediate goods), to the various expenses and retained profit.
NET NATIONAL PRODUCT
Net national product (NNP) is equal to gross national product minus capital consumption
allowance:
NNP = GNP-CCA.
Net domestic product is likewise
NDP = GDP - CCA
(As above, the difference between NNP and NDP is net factor income
and unilateral transfers to foreigners.)
The production which has been devoted to maintaining our stock of means of
production, that is the capital consumption allowance, must be deducted to
see what new consumption and income occurred during the year.
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NATIONAL INCOME
National income (NI) is equal to net national product minus indirect business taxes:
NI = NNP - (ind business taxes)
National income is also equal to the sum of salaries, rent, interest, profit and proprietors' income.
National income is the sum of all forms of gross income, similar to the gross
salary appearing in a paycheck of an employee, that is before various taxes
and other deductions are taken out.
INDIRECT BUSINESS TAXES
Indirect business taxes are all the various sales and excise taxes.
Sales taxes are the largest part of indirect business taxes. These sales taxes
are paid as an addition to the price when a purchase is made. They are passed
on to the government by the business that collects them. Thus, these moneys
are not part of what is distributed by the firm in the form of income.
PERSONAL INCOME
Personal income (PI) equals national income net of transfer payments. Transfer payments added
to national income are: social security and pension payments, welfare and unemployment
payments. Transfer payments deducted from national income are: social security contributions,
undistributed corporate profits and corporate income taxes.
TRANSFER PAYMENTS
Transfer payments are additions and subtractions to national income to obtain personal income.
Additions include social security retirement payments, unemployment benefits and welfare
payments. Subtractions include social security contributions, corporate income taxes and
undistributed corporate profits.
Transfer payments are payments which are not connected to any productive
activity. The typical example of a transfer payment is social security:
contributions to social security are collected from all those who work and are
passed on to those who are retired.
DISPOSABLE INCOME
Disposable income (DI) equals personal income less personal income taxes. Disposable income
is distributed between personal consumption expenditure and saving.
Disposable income can readily be seen in the paycheck an employee receives
from the employer. From the gross salary various amounts have been taken
out: taxes and various transfer payments. On the national level, it is just
about the same.
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REAL GDP
Real GDP is GDP adjusted for inflation (or change in value of money). The unadjusted GDP is
known as nominal or current GDP. The adjustment consists in dividing current GDP by a price
index (also known as a deflator).
GNP adjusted for inflation is said to be real in the same way as what a
paycheck can buy in various goods and services, is the real purchasing power
of that salary.
PRICE INDEX
A price index is constructed by taking the weighted average of the prices of a basket of goods in
a given year divided by the weighted average of the prices of the same basket in a base year. A
well known price index is the consumer price index or CPI.
The consumer price index is simply an average of prices reported by various
consumers from different markets during a telephone survey conducted
periodically. Such an average of prices is adequately portraying the presence
of any inflation.
National Income Accounting
National Income Accounting is the methodology used in measuring the total output and income
of the economy. To begin to measure the output of the U.S. economy we must understand the
definition of what we call the Gross Domestic Product. The Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is
the value of all the final goods and services produced in the domestic economy in a given
year.
Certain words in this definition were italicized to give emphasis to key components of how the
GDP is measured. Since the GDP measures the value of the goods and services produced it is
important to note that the GDP is measured in dollars, NOT in units of output. Measuring the
GDP in dollars allows us to aggregate or add up the output across very diverse types of goods
and services. If the GDP were measured in units of output, for example, how do you add up 10
automobiles and two bushels of wheat? What does the sum of those two outputs equal? Can you
imagine trying to do that with hundreds of thousands of goods and services and keeping it all in
units of output? Fortunately, the GDP is measured in dollars, so if the 10 automobiles are valued
at $25,000 each and the two bushels of wheat are valued at $10.00 dollars each, then the GDP is
equal to $250,020. Measuring the GDP in dollars allows us to easily aggregate the value of a
very disparate output.
The GDP includes the value of the final goods and services produced in a given year so as not to
double or triple count the value of intermediate goods that are used in the production of a final
product. If we produce an automobile in a given year, we only count the value of the automobile
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as a final product. We do not count the value of the glass in the windshield and the value of the
rubber in the tires (both of which may have also been produced in that same year) and then count
the value of the automobile also. If we did, the value of the windshield and the tires would be
counted twice. Therefore, the GDP counts only the value of the final goods and services
produced in a given year.
The fact that the GDP measures the value of the output in the domestic economy means that it
includes the value of all of the final goods and services produced within the borders of the
domestic economy, no matter who owns the factors of production. In other words, if a foreign
company is producing a good within the borders of the United States, it is counted as part of the
US GDP.
Notice in the definition of the GDP that the words in a given year were also italicized. This is to
give emphasis to the notion that the GDP in any given year does NOT include the value of
everything that is bought and sold in that year. It only includes the final goods and services that
were produced in that year. Many items are bought and sold as used items each year, but they
were included in the GDP of the year in which they were produced and NOT in subsequent years
when they are bought and sold as used items. It will be useful here to mention what happens to
the value of an item that is produced in a given year, but does not sell in the year in which it is
produced. At the end of the year it is included in inventories for that year and is thereby included
in that year’s GDP as will be seen when we discuss how to calculate GDP using the
Expenditures Approach.
There are two different ways to actually calculate the GDP. The GDP can be determined
either by adding up all that is spent to buy this year’s output (the expenditures approach)
or by summing up all the incomes derived from the production of this year’s output (the
income approach).
Section 02: The Expenditures Approach
The expenditures approach to the GDP recognizes that there are four possible uses for the output
of an economy in any given year. The output can be purchased by private households, by
businesses, by the government, or by the foreign sector.
The total payment made by households on consumption goods and services is called
consumption expenditures (C).
Firms, however, do not sell all of their output to households. Some of what they produce is
purchased by other firms. The purchase of new plants, equipment, buildings, new homes, and
additions to inventories is called investment expenditures (I). Note that is a significantly different
definition of investment than the common use of the term. In the national income accounts,
buying a stock, or an antique car, or precious gems, or a piece of art is NOT investment.
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Government purchases of finished products of businesses and all direct purchases of resources
are called government expenditures (G).
The expenditure by the rest of the world on goods and services produced by domestic firms
(exports) minus the US expenditures on goods and services produced by the rest of the world
(imports) is called net exports (NX).
The National Income Accounting Identity
Y = C + I + G + NX
Where Y is the GDP (the total output or income of the economy).
Example
Personal Consumption 3,657
Depreciation 400
Wages 3,254
Indirect Business Taxes 500
Interest 530
Domestic Investment 741
Government Expenditures 1,098
Rental Income 17
Corporate Profits 341
Exports 673
Net Foreign Factor Income 20
Proprietor’s Income 403
Imports 704
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Let me demonstrate calculating the GDP using the Expenditures Approach with the above
hypothetical data:
Y = C + I + G + NX
Y = 3,657 + 741 + 1,098 + (673 – 704)
Y = 3,657 + 741 + 1,098 – 31
Y = 5,465
Think About It: Calculating GDP with the Expenditures Approach
Calculate the GDP using the Expenditures Approach by using the actual 2009 data below to do
so.
2009 National Income Accounting Data provided by the US Government
Household Consumption 10,001.30
Corporate Profits 1,066.60
Investment Expenditures 1,589.20
Indirect Business Taxes 1,001.10
Depreciation 1,861.10
Government Expenditures 2,914.90
Net Foreign Factor Income 146.20
Net Exports -386.40
Wages 7,954.70
Proprietor’s Income 1,030.70
Rents 292.70
Interest Income 765.90
ANSWER
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Did you get an answer of $14,119? If not, review the example above and go back and redo this problem
solving it in the same way. Close (X)
Section 03: The Income Approach
The Income Approach to calculating the GDP recognizes that the total expenditures on the
economy’s output in any given year must equal the total income generated by the production of
that same output. Adding up what is spent on purchasing the output of the economy in a given
year (the expenditures approach) has to equal the sum of all of the incomes that are generated in
producing that output in a given year (the income approach). If you think about the total income
earned in a given year by the factors of production, you must go back to the payments made to
those factors we discussed previously. Remember that labor is paid a wage, land is paid rent,
capital is paid interest, and the entrepreneur is paid a profit. In the case of the entrepreneur, the
National Income Accounts recognize that there are two types of entrepreneurs in our economy,
and they each earn a different type of profit. One type of entrepreneur starts up his own business
and he will earn what is called proprietor’s income. Another type of entrepreneur (remember:
an entrepreneur is a risk taker) invests in someone else’s business, and he earns a profit that is
called corporate profit. So, we will now define “National Income” as the sum of these five
payments made to the four factors of production:
National Income = Compensation to Employees (Wages) + Rents + Interest + Proprietor’s
Income + Corporate Profits
To go from National Income to GDP you must add in the value of production that is never
received as income by a factor of production. This is done by adding Indirect Business Taxes
(sometimes called sales taxes), Depreciation (the value of the capital that is used up by producing
the output of the economy), and Net Foreign Factor Income (NFFI) to National Income. The
NFFI is the difference between factor payments received from the foreign sector by US citizens
and factor payments made to foreign citizens for US production. Each of these payments hovers
around 3% of GDP, but since NFFI is the difference between the two they tend to cancel each
other out and NFFI is usually a very small number, less than 1% of GDP.
The final Income Approach to the GDP is therefore given by:
Y = National Income + Indirect Business Taxes + Depreciation + NFFI
Where, again, Y equals GDP.
Another important measure which is sometime calculated in the National Income Accounts is the
called the Net Domestic Product and it is equal to: NDP = GDP – Depreciation
Example
I will demonstrate calculating the GDP using the Income Approach with the hypothetical date
given earlier:
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National Income = Compensation to Employees (Wages) + Rents + Interest + Proprietor’s
Income + Corporate Profits
National Income = 3,254 + 17 + 530 + 403 + 341 = 4,545
Y = National Income + Indirect Business Taxes + Depreciation + NFFI
Y = 4,545 + 500 + 400 + 20 = 5,465
This is the same value for the GDP received when calculating it using the Expenditures
Approach.
Think About It: Calculating GDP with the Income Approach
Calculate the GDP for the United States using the Income Approach and the actual data for 2009
given to you earlier in this lesson.
ANSWER
Important Side Note: When using the actual data for a large economy like the United States, the
Expenditures Approach and the Income Approach do not yield exactly the same value. However, it turns
out to be close and within what the government refers to as a “statistical discrepancy.”
Section 04: Measuring Changes in GDP over Time
The GDP is often used to measure the growth in an economy over time. If the GDP is rising, we
assume the economy is growing; if the GDP is falling, the economy is shrinking and presumably
is in the midst of an economic downturn. Since the GDP measures the value of the final goods
and services produced in the domestic economy in a given year, however, the GDP can rise
from one year to the next for one of three reasons: either because the economy has produced
more from one year to the next, because the value of the product has gone up from year to year,
or both. Since the value is measured in dollar prices, the GDP would go up from one year to the
next, even if you produced exactly the same amount of output in both years but the prices of the
products were to rise. It is therefore important to distinguish between what is called the Nominal
GDP and what is called the Real GDP.
The Nominal GDP measures the value of the output of final goods and services using current
dollar prices. It is the value of a given year’s output using the dollar prices that prevailed in that
given year (referred to as current dollar prices).
The Real GDP measures the value of the output of final goods and services using constant dollar
prices. It is the value of a given year’s output using the dollar prices that prevailed in a previous
year, called the base year (referred to as constant dollar prices).
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As an example to illustrate the dramatic difference between the nominal and real GDP’s in two
different years, consider the fact that the Nominal GDP in the United States in 1960 was 513
billion dollars. In 1990, the US Nominal GDP was 5.757 trillion dollars. Do you think that the
US economy really expanded by over 10 times in 30 years? Surely there was growth in the
United States between 1960 and 1990, but we did not produce over 10 times as much output in
1990 as in 1960. Part of that seeming growth can be accounted for because prices went up during
that 30 year period, so it would be interesting to know what the GDP in 1990 would be
calculated to be if the prices in 1990 had been the same as they were in 1960. This would give us
a measure called the Real GDP. The Real GDP in 1990 (using 1960 prices as the base year) was
approximately 804 Billion Dollars. So we can see, in real terms, the economy did not even
double between these two years, whereas in nominal terms it appeared to go up by over ten
times! This should illustrate the importance of looking at the real GDP when calculating growth
in an economy, so as not to be misled into thinking an economy is growing when it is actually
just experiencing large increases in prices.
Price Indices and GDP Growth
Inflation is an upward movement in the average level of prices and deflation is a downward
movement in the average level of prices. The price level is measured by a price index—the
average level of prices in one period relative to their average level in an earlier period. The two
most common price indices are called the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and the GDP Deflator.
We will discuss the CPI in a future lesson.
GDP Price Index
The GDP Deflator includes all of the items (C,I,G, and NX) included in the GDP. When
comparing the value of the GDP from year to year, we use the GDP Deflator to make a valid
comparison, i.e. one that takes into account the changes in prices that have occurred in the
economy between the two years.
In order to calculate Real GDP, we use the GDP Deflator. For example, let’s assume we have a
very simple economy that only produces three products: pineapples, snorkels, and beach
umbrellas. The prices and outputs of these items in the current and base years are as follows:
Current Period Base Period
ITEM Output Price Expenditures Price Expenditures
Pineapples 4,240 $1.30 $5,512 $1.00 $4,240
Snorkels 5,000 $10.00 $50,000 $8.00 $40,000
Umbrellas 1,060 $100.00 $106,000 $100.00 $106,000
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The Nominal GDP will be the value of the current year’s output using the current year’s prices:
Nominal GDP in the Current Period = (4,240 X $1.30) + (5,000 X $10.00) + (1,060 X $100.00)
= $156,512
The Real GDP will be the value of the current year’s output using the base year’s prices:
Real GDP in the Current Period = (4,240 X $1.00) + (5,000 X $8.00) + (1,060 X
$100.00) = $150,240
GDP Deflator = (Nominal GDP/Real GDP) X 100
($156,512 / $150,240) X 100 = 104.175
Notice that the GDP Deflator is equal to the Nominal GDP divided by the Real GDP and
multiplied times 100.
This deflator tells us that there has been 4.175% inflation over the period from the base year to
the current year. Note that if the prices had been the same in the base year and in the current
year, the Nominal and the Real GDP would have been the same in the current year and the
deflator would have equaled 100. A deflator of 100 indicates NO inflation between the two
periods. A deflator greater than 100 indicates inflation and a deflator less than 100 indicates
deflation (a decline in the average price level from one year to the next).
Is the GDP a Good Measure of Economic Output and Welfare?
Several examples of items not included in the official GDP statistics have caused some to
suggest that the GDP is a poor measure of the economy’s total output. In other words, some final
goods and services produced in the economy are not counted as part of the GDP. The suggestion,
therefore, is that the official GDP reported in any given year seriously under-represents the total
value of all final goods and services produced in the economy in that year. Consider the
following examples:
Underground Economy—most goods and services that are illegal or produced “under the table”
are not counted in the GDP. This could be anything from illegal drugs to you building a deck on
your neighbor’s house and him rebuilding your engine in exchange.
Household Services—if you hire a maid to come in and clean your house, it is counted as part of
the GDP, but if you clean your house yourself, it is not counted as part of the GDP. Most
household production is not counted as part of the GDP, even though a final good or service is
produced.
Additionally, some suggest the GDP is a poor measure of social welfare. For example, you could
have two countries with exactly the same GDP and population, which might lead you to believe
that both countries are equally well off. In Country A, however, the workers may labor for 70
hours per week, while in Country B they may labor for only 40 hours per week. Or Country A
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may be a dirty and polluted place to live, while Country B may be a pristine, pleasant place to
live. As long as we value things like leisure time and clean living conditions, the GDP alone will
not tell us how well off a population is.
The Circular Flow
The first model that we will consider is called the Circular Flow Model of the Economy. In its simplest
form we will assume that the economy is composed of only two markets: a factor or resource market and
a product market. The key result of this model is the fact that the flow of income is equal to the
expenditures on goods and services (the output of the economy). Income flows through the Factor Market
and is represented on the top of the Circular Flow Model. Households supply the factors of production in
exchange for income. The factors of production are Land, Labor, Capital, and Entrepreneurship. These
factors of production are purchased (or rented in the case of labor) by businesses through a factor market.
But households do not provide these factors for free. Households are paid for the factors of production
and the payments to Land, Labor, Capital, and Entrepreneurship are called Rent, Wages, Interest, and
Profit, respectively.
What do businesses do with these factors, and what do households do with these incomes? That
is represented by the bottom half of the circular flow. Businesses use the factors or resources to
produce an output, generally described as goods and services, to be sold in product markets.
Households use their income to make expenditures in these product markets as they purchase
goods and services. These expenditures become the source of revenue for businesses that allow
them to employ the resources necessary to produce their output. As the name of the model
suggests, the income generated on the top of the circular flow is exactly sufficient to produce the
expenditures necessary to buy all of the output of goods and services on the bottom of the
circular flow.
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Students will often note that the model does not account for the banking sector, the government,
foreign trade, etc., suggesting that the model is too simplistic to represent the real economy. Each
of these objections could be handled by the circular flow model, but the model would just get
more complicated. Remember the more the model resembles the true economy, the more you are
trying to navigate an unfamiliar city with an enormously detailed map!
Economic Models
What is a model? A model is a simplified representation of a complex idea or entity. A model
airplane is a scaled version of a real airplane, but the model is not necessarily an exact replica of
a real airplane. The model gives us a good idea of reality without all of the complexity.
Economic models are similar in that they are generally a simplified version of a complex reality.
This idea of simplification gives us the primary reason for why economists use models.
Consider the example of a map. Think of a road map as a model. If you were unfamiliar with Los
Angeles and were planning to go there on a trip, how would you feel if I gave you a map of Los
Angeles exactly the size of Los Angeles? Would it be helpful to you? No, it would not. If you do
not know LA, a map the size of the city would be just as confusing for you as having no map at
all. You need the map to be scaled down. The actual economy is much too grand to be studied in
detail. We must model the economy to be able to make sense of it. As we study various
economic models, it is not helpful for you to think,“But that isn’t the way it is in real life!”
Generally, economists recognize that they are making simplifying assumptions that are not
always true to life, but studying a model that is scaled down is infinitely easier than studying the
real thing.
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MONEY
Money
This lesson introduces us to the role of money in our economy, the American Banking system
(including the Federal Reserve System of the United States), and the use of monetary policy to
manipulate price levels and employment in the US economy.
Section 01: The Functions of Money
Money fulfills three primary functions in our economy: It is a medium of exchange, it is a
measure of value, and it is a store of value. Let’s consider each of these functions in turn.
Medium of Exchange
Money is the means by which we purchase goods and services. If there were no money, we
might suppose that we would exchange goods and services directly for each other in a barter
system. It does not take much imagination to see how money is useful to facilitate exchanges that
would be difficult by barter. Imagine taking a pig into and shoe store and trying to exchange it
for a pair of tennis shoes. This situation is fraught with all sorts of difficulties. What if the owner
of the tennis shoes does not happen to want a pig or any portion of a pig? What about the fact
that the pig might be worth 5 pairs of tennis shoes and you only want one pair? Is it reasonable
that the shoe store owner can accept only 1/5 of a pig for a pair of tennis shoes? How would he
be able to do this? Money facilitates the exchange, because everyone is willing to accept money
as a medium of exchange for whatever it is that one might want to buy or sell. It is also very
easily divisible to the scale of what is being exchanged.
Measure of Value
Money is also a measure of value and acts as a yardstick for measuring the relative worth of
heterogeneous goods. It might be difficult to know off the top of your head that a pig is worth ten
pairs of tennis shoes, but money makes this easy to measure. If a grown pig can be sold for $300
and a pair of tennis shoes can be sold for $60, then we can say that a pig is worth 5 pairs of
tennis shoes. Money makes this calculation possible because it is a measure of value. How much
regular gasoline could you trade for a pound of roast beef? The answer to that question might not
be obvious to you at first blush. Let’s say that you were told, however, that sliced roast beef at
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the Deli counter at Broulim’s Grocery Store is $7.00 a pound and that regular gasoline at the
Maverick Gas Station in Rexburg ID is $3.50 a gallon. Now you would know that you could get
two gallons of regular gasoline for one pound of roast beef, and money as a measure of value
provides you with the answer!
Store of Value
Money is a store of value because it is a liquid (or spendable) source of wealth. Some people
choose to hold on to money as an asset, just like they might have a home, a painting, or a
diamond ring. Money has an advantage over other assets because it is very liquid. The liquidity
of an asset refers to how quickly the asset can be turned into cash, and since money is already
cash, it is the most liquid asset possible! This is probably the reason that so many people hold
onto cash as a store of value, as will be seen when we talk about the components of the money
supply.
Section 02: The Money Supply
There are two widely used definitions of the money supply. One is a more narrow definition and
the other is a broader definition. We will look at both.
M1
The first definition of the money supply is called M1. M1 consists of currency and coins in the
hands of the non-bank public, traveler’s checks, and checkable deposits. Currency and coins
constitutes about 50% of M1 and checkable deposits make up the other 50%. Traveler’s checks
make up far less than 1% of M1. As of April, 2011, M1 was $1,900,900,000,000, or nearly two
trillion US dollars.
M2
The second definition of the money supply is called M2. M2 is a broader and less liquid
definition of the money supply. While M1 constitutes money that is either cash or readily
changed to cash, M2 includes more types of money and specifically parts of the money supply
that are harder to turn into cash. M2 consists of M1, Savings Deposits, Small Time Deposits
($100,000 or less), and Money Market Mutual Funds. M1 makes up about 21% of M2, Savings
Deposits account for 61% of M2, Small Time Deposits make up 10% of M2, and Money Market
Mutual Funds constitute approximately 8% of M2. As of April 2011, M2 was 8,946,100,000,000
or nearly nine trillion US dollars.
Section 03: Demand for Money
Given our explanations of the functions of money, it will not be surprising that there are two
different types of demand for money. The first is called the transactions demand and the second
is called the asset demand.
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Transactions Demand
On a daily basis people need money on hand for the things that they routinely buy. You have to
get a haircut or stop by the store on the way home from work to pick up some milk. You have
transactions that you need to conduct, and therefore you have a demand for money. The
transactions demand for money is using money as a medium of exchange. Notice in the graph
below that the Transactions Demand for Money (DMT) is denoted as a vertical line when
graphed against the interest rate. The demand for money as a medium of exchange is
independent of the interest rate, because when you are on your way home from work and need to
pick up milk, the interest rate does not affect how much milk you buy.
Asset Demand
Some people hold money as a financial asset just like stocks and bonds. Holding money as a
liquid asset is using money as a store of value. Consider a person who has a portfolio of
investments. Perhaps he owns some stocks, bonds, jewelry, artwork, a home, a savings account
at his credit union, and has $5,000 in a fireproof box hidden in his basement. In an emergency,
the cash is the most liquid asset that the person has, and is far more spendable than a painting or
a piece of jewelry that might take weeks to turn into cash. The liquidity of cash is the advantage
of holding cash. The disadvantage of holding money as an asset is that there is very little or no
return on this asset.
The cost of holding money as an asset is the foregone interest rate and there is an inverse
relationship between the interest rate and the asset demand for money. This inverse relationship
is illustrated in the graph below as a downward sloping asset demand for money (DMA). The
total demand of money (DM) is just the sum of the transactions demand and the asset demand,
and has the same downward slope as the asset demand.
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Section 04: The Money Market
We will make a simplifying assumption that the supply of money is set by Federal Reserve
policy, and is therefore shown graphically as a vertical line.
Adjustments to a Decrease in the Supply of Money — When the supply of money decreases
(shifts to the left) the interest rate goes up.
Adjustments to an Increase in the Supply of Money — When the supply of money increases
(shifts to the right) the interest rate goes down.
Adjustments to a Decrease in the Demand for Money — When the demand for money
decreases (shifts to the left) the interest rate falls.
Adjustments to an Increase in the Demand for Money — When the demand for money
increases (shifts to the right) the interest rate goes up.
The above four statements can be easily illustrated by shifts in the graph above, but can you see the
logical economic argument behind each? Let’s illustrate with the first statement and then you work
through the similar logic on the other three.
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What would happen if there were a decrease in the Supply of Money from SM to SM’? If you
stay at the old interest rate of i˳ when the supply of money falls, then the demand for money will
exceed the supply of money. What would you do if you were running a bank and more people
came in demanded money than there were coming in and supplying money? Wouldn’t your
natural reaction be to increase the interest rate in the hope that the higher interest rate would
decrease the demand for money? Remember that at a higher interest rate, the asset demand for
money will be less. As the interest rate goes up, the demand for money and the supply of money
will eventually come into equilibrium again at a higher interest rate, say i*. You can use similar
logic to analyze each of the other three scenarios.
Return to the course in I-Learn and complete the activity that corresponds with this material.
Section 05: Why are there so many interest rates?
Our previous discussion referred to the interest rate as though there was only one in the
economy. The reality is that there are many interest rates. The interest rate on your credit card is
different than the interest rate for a car loan, which is different than the rate you might be
charged on a home loan. Let’s consider four factors that will influence the interest in any given
situation.
1. Term or maturity
1. Shorter term loans have a lower i
2. Longer term loans have a higher i
2. Risk
1. Riskier loans have a higher i
2. Safer loans have a lower i
3. Liquidity
1. Liquid loans have a lower i
2. Illiquid loans have a higher i
4. Administrative Costs
1. Loans that have a high cost to administer have a higher i
2. Loans that have a low cost to administer have a lower i
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Banking is a Business
Bankers provide services and attempt to make a profit for their owners. The Balance Sheet of a
Commercial Bank looks much like the balance sheet of any other business. Assets are items the
bank owns and Liabilities are items the bank owes. Assets minus liabilities equal the net worth of
the bank. It may seem counterintuitive, but the liabilities of the banks are its deposits, and the
assets of the bank are the loans that it has issued. Remember that a liability is something that the
bank owes; when you deposit money into your account, the bank owes you that money. An asset
is something that the bank owns; when the bank lends you money, it owns that loan, and you
owe the bank the amount of the loan. Banks like to make loans, because it is one of the primary
ways that they make money. Charging interest on the loan is one of the most profitable activities
for any commercial bank.
Reserves are the funds or assets that banks hold in the form of cash, or on deposit with the
central bank. Why would a bank hold reserves in the vault when they could be lending that
money out and earning interest? The bank has to have enough money on hand for day to day
operations. If someone comes into the bank and wants to withdraw $1,000 from her savings
account, it would not look good if the bank had to say, “Sorry, we don’t have $1,000 right now.
Could you come back later today?” They want to always have enough money on hand to do their
daily business, so even though money in the vault is “sterile” in the sense that it does not earn
any interest for the bank, it still is a good business practice to have money available to meet
customer needs.
The other important reason that banks keep money in reserve is that they are legally required to
do so. The percentage of the deposits that must be kept in reserve is called the reserve ratio.
We’ll talk a lot about that in the next section and in our later discussion of monetary policy.
Fractional Reserve Banking
Our modern banking system is known as fractional reserve banking. “Fractional reserve” refers
to the fact that, at any given point in time, the bank has in reserve only a fraction of its total
deposits. This system was developed as early as the middle ages to allow banks to invest money
(or make loans) for a profit. If banks were forced to keep all of their deposits in reserve in the
vault, then the bank would be no more than a storage unit for customers’ money. Not only could
they not make any money, but they would not be able to pay interest to their depositors. In fact,
in order to operate, they would have to charge customers a fee for accepting their deposits.
In this system, the Federal Reserve sets legal reserve requirements as a means of controlling the
money supply. An illustration will help you see how the reserve requirement is used to control
the money supply, and also how the commercial banking system of the United States “creates”
money.
In this example, we are going to consider the actions of a fictional bank called The Last National
Bank (LNB) which has a legal reserve requirement of 10%. This bank’s initial balance sheet is
shown below:
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The Last National Bank: Balance Sheet 1
Assets Liabilities
Reserves: $1,000 Deposits: $1,000
Notice that this bank has liabilities of $1,000, the total of its deposits. If the bank initially takes
this deposit and puts it in the vault, then it also has assets of $1,000 in the form on cash
reserves. If the reserve requirement is 10% then the LNB is only legally required to keep $100 in
reserve. What should the bank do with the other $900? Well, don’t forget that this bank has to
make a profit just like any other business, so it needs to do something with the $900 that will
bring in more money than what it is paying to the depositor in interest. The bank could invest the
$900, or lend it and charge more interest than what it is paying to the depositor. In either of these
two scenarios the result will be the same, but we will look at the case where the bank lends out
the money. After the loan is made, the balance sheet of the LNB looks like the following:
The Last National Bank: Balance Sheet 2
Assets Liabilities
Reserves: $1,000 Deposits: $1,000
Loans: $900
Let’s say that the person who borrows the $900 buys an item from someone, who then deposits
the $900 in his bank, The Second to the Last National Bank (SLNB). The balance sheet for the
SLNB is illustrated below. Notice that deposit is a liability to the bank and, at least initially, we
are showing the entire deposit as being held in reserve as cash vault, which is an asset to the
bank.
The Second to the Last National Bank: Balance Sheet 1
Assets Liabilities
Reserves: $900 Deposits: $900
The SLNB does not have to keep $900 in reserves, however. Because the legal reserve ratio is
10%, SLNB can lend out $810. If the SLNB has $900 in deposits and $900 in “actual” reserves
with a 10% reserve ratio, they have what is call “excess” reserves of $810. The “required”
reserves would be $90, and they can lend out all of their excess reserves. After making such a
loan, the new balance sheet for the SLND would look like the following:
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The Second to the Last National Bank: Balance Sheet 2
Assets Liabilities
Reserves: $900 Deposits: $900
Loans: $810
Notice what has happened to the money supply as a result of this fractional reserve banking
system. Remember that the money supply includes cash in the hands of the non-bank public plus
demand deposits at commercial banks. When the original deposit is made at the LNB, the money
supply is $1,000. When the LNB lends $900 the, money supply immediately goes up to
$1,900. Even if the person who borrowed the $900 just kept the money in his pocket this would
be true. The money supply expands, however, when the $900 is deposited into the SLNB and
they make an $810 loan off that deposit. Now the money supply is $1,000 + $900 + $810 =
$2,710. When the $810 is deposited into another bank and they lend out 90% of that deposit the
money supply continues to grow. The commercial banking system is essentially “creating”
money. The maximum amount of money supply expansion that can exist in the banking system
is equal to:
Total Potential Money Expansion = Excess Reserves x 1/rr
where “rr” is the legal Required Reserve Ratio. “1/rr” is referred to as the simple money
multiplier. “rr” is the Bank’s Required Reserves divided by the Bank’s Liabilities. In our
example rr = 0.10 so 1/rr = 10. Since the initial excess reserves of the LNB were equal to $900,
the total potential money expansion would be equal to $900 x 10 = $9,000.
Notice: the total potential money expansion is equal to excess reserves times 1/rr. This is the
potential, because you will only get this amount of money expansion under two critical
conditions: First, the bank must keep only the minimum amount of reserves on hand and lend out
all of their excess reserves, and second, the total amount of each loan in the expansion process
must be deposited into another bank. If the reserve ratio is 10% but a bank decides to keep 15%
instead, you do not reach the full potential of expansion. This would be true because the bank is
keeping excess reserves. Also, if a person borrows $900 dollars but deposits less than that
amount in his bank, and keeps some in cash hidden under his mattress, you will not have the full
potential money expansion. This would be true because the excess reserves of one bank are not
all becoming deposits in another bank.
Summary
1. Banks can create money because of the fractional reserve banking system.
2. The Federal Reserve controls the ability of banks to expand the money supply by setting the
reserve ratio.
3. Commercial banks hold reserves as cash and do one of two things with their excess reserves:
Lend them out or invest them in government securities.
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4. In both cases, the excess reserves of one bank become the deposits of another bank.
5. The total potential expansion of the money supply will be equal to excess reserves times 1/rr.
6. The Fed uses the reserve ratio as one of the tools of Monetary Policy.
Return to the course in I-Learn and complete the activity that corresponds with this material.
Section 03: Monetary Policy
The Federal Reserve has control over the three primary instruments of monetary policy:
1. Open-market Operations
2. Reserve Requirements
3. Discount Rate (note the difference between this and the Federal Funds Rate)
Open Market Operations
Open Market Operations refers to the buying and selling of government bonds by the Federal
Open Market Committee. When the FOMC decides to buy bonds they take bonds out of the
hands of the public and put cash into the hands of the public. If the Fed were to buy a bond from
you, you would give the Fed the bond and they would give you cash. Since bonds are not part of
the money supply but cash is, the money supply would immediately increase by the amount of
the cash that you are given. The cash would have formerly been in a Fed vault and therefore
would not have been part of M1. If you take that cash and deposit it in a bank, bank excess
reserves go up and the potential increase in the money supply grows through the money creation
process described in the previous section. For example, if the reserve requirement were 5%, the
multiplier would be 20—if the Fed buys $2 billion in bonds, the money supply will go up by $40
billion.
If the Fed were to sell bonds, you would give the Fed cash and they would give you bonds. The
cash that was formerly in your hands (or in your bank account) was part of M1, but as soon as
the Fed gives you a bond and you give the Fed your money the money, supply immediately
falls. If you take the money to pay for the bond out of your bank account, excess reserves will
fall and the money contracts by a multiple of the reduction in excess reserves. Think of the
opposite of money creation—in fact, it is sometimes called destroying money. For example, if
the reserve requirement were 10%, then the multiplier would be 10 and if the Fed sells $1 billion
in bonds, the money supply decreases by $10 billion.
The Reserve Requirement
Within limits established by Congress, the Federal Reserve has the discretion to raise or lower
the legal reserve ratio for commercial banks. Recall that if the Fed reduces the reserve ratio, then
banks will have additional excess reserves that they can lend out, and the money supply may be
expanded by an amount equal to excess reserves times 1/rr. Increasing the reserve ratio will
reduce the amount of excess reserves that banks can lend out and will result in a contraction of
the money supply by an equivalent amount. Therefore, the ability to set the reserve ratio
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becomes an instrument of monetary policy to the extent that the reserve ratio effects the money
supply.
Discount Rate Policy
What would happen to a commercial bank that lends out so much money that they do not have
enough on hand to meet their required reserves? In other words, in our example of the LNB that
had required reserves of $100 and could lend out $900, what would happen if the bank made of
loan of $950 and found at the end of the day that they only had $50 in actual reserves? When
commercial banks are short on reserves, they can borrow from a Federal Reserve Bank. The
interest rate they are charged on such a loan is called the discount rate.
When the discount rate is low, the Fed encourages borrowing by member banks, which tends to
expand the money supply. If I lend out $50 dollars too many to a bank customer and charge him
6% interest, and the Fed sets the discount rate at 2%, it makes sense for me to just borrow the
$50 from the Fed to make up my required reserves. In effect, low discount rates encourage
commercial banks to loan out their required reserves and then borrow the reserves back from the
Fed. Obviously, the more loans that banks make, the higher the money supply, as discussed in
the section on money creation.
When the discount rate is high, the opposite is true. High discount rates discourage banks from borrowing
from the Fed, and banks will therefore be more cautious in making loans. As banks make fewer loans, the
money supply falls. Because the money supply rises or falls as the discount rate is lower or higher, the
discount rate becomes an instrument of monetary policy. The Feds ability to manipulate the discount rate
allows it to also manipulate the money supply.
Important Note: You should not confuse the Discount Rate with the Federal Funds Rate. The
discount rate is the interest rate that the Federal Reserve charges member banks when these
banks borrow money from the Fed. The Federal Funds Rate is the rate that one commercial bank
charges another commercial bank when banks borrow money from each other. The Federal
Funds Rate is sometimes called an overnight rate because banks usually borrow money from
each other for very short periods of time—sometimes just overnight.
.
Section 04: The Money Market Revisited
A decrease in the money supply would cause the interest rate to rise; an increase in the money
supply would lower the interest rate. The change in the interest rate as the Fed exercises
monetary policy will either increase investment and interest sensitive consumption (if the interest
rate falls) or decrease investment and interest sensitive consumption (if the interest rate
rises). Since investment and consumption are two components of Aggregate Demand, a change
in investment and consumption will either stimulate (if investment and consumption go up) or
contract (if investment and consumption go down) AD.
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Shifting AD to the right will expand the economy, causing inflation in the Intermediate or
Classical ranges of AS, while increasing output or GDP and lowering unemployment in the
Keynesian or Intermediate ranges of AS. Shifting AD to the left will contract the economy,
reducing inflation in the Intermediate or Classical ranges of AS and decreasing output or GDP,
while increasing unemployment in the Keynesian or Intermediate ranges of AS. Let’s review the
exact process:
Expansionary Monetary Policy
If the Fed thinks that unemployment is rising too sharply, it will follow an expansionary
monetary policy designed to stimulate output and reduce unemployment.
Think About It: Expansionary Monetary Policy
The following outlines the steps of expansionary monetary policy. Consider the following
questions before checking the answers by clicking in the word in parenthesis:
1. The Fed can increase excess reserves ),hich
2. increases the money supply which
3. decreases the interest rate), which
4. increases I and C which
5. increases AD (which
6. increases Real GDP, and decreases Unemployment and the Price Level
(
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Contractionary Monetary Policy
If the Fed thinks that Inflation is too high in the economy, they will follow a contractionary
monetary policy designed to reduce the price level.
Think About It: Contractionary Monetary Policy
The following outlines the steps of contractionary monetary policy. Consider the following
questions before checking the answers by clicking in the word in parenthesis:
1. The Fed can reduce excess reserves which
2. reduces the money supply (which
3. increases the interest rate (which
4. decreases the I and C), which
5. decreases AD which
6. decreases Real GDP, and increases Unemployment and the Price Level
Section 05: Summary
We can summarize the relationship between the money supply and AD as follows:
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1. Increases in the Money Supply lead to an increase in AD, because interest rates will fall.
2. Decreases in the Money Supply leads to a decrease in AD, because interest rates will rise.
We can summarize the relationship between the money supply and the Price Level as follows:
1. Increases in the Money Supply leads to increases in the Price Level.
2. Decreases in the Money Supply leads to decreases the Price Level.
Consumption Function
The Keynesian Consumption function expresses the level of consumer spending depending on
three items
Yd – disposable income
a – autonomous consumption (consumption when income is 0. (e.g. even with no income, you
may borrow to be able to buy food))
c – marginal propensity to consume (the % of extra income that is spent) Also known as induced
consumption.
Consumption Function formula
C = a + c Yd
This suggests Consumption is primarily determined by the level of disposable income (Yd).
Higher Yd, leads to higher consumer spending.
This model suggests that as income rises, consumer spending will rise. However, spending will
increase at a lower rate than income.
At low incomes, people will spend a high proportion of their income. The average propensity to
consume could be one or greater than one. This means people spend everything they have. When
you have low income, you don’t have the luxury of being able to save. You need to spend
everything you have on essentials.
However, as incomes rise, people can afford the luxury of saving a higher proportion of their
income. Therefore, as income rise, spending increases at a lower rate than disposable income.
People with high incomes have a lower average propensity to spend.