Building a Weather-Ready Nation // 1 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Evaluation of the impact of various observing systems on forecast skill in the NCEP Global Forecast System (GFS) November 30, 2020 7th WMO Workshop on the Impact of Various Observing Systems on NWP Catherine Thomas 1 , Daryl Kleist 1 , Iliana Genkova 2 , Hui Shao 3 , Kristen Bathmann 2 , Haixia Liu 2 , Xingren Wu 2 , Vijay Tallapragada 1 , Peter Black 2 , Stephen Lord 1 , Fanglin Yang 1 1 NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC, 2 IMSG @ NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC, 3 JCSDA
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NATIONAL IMSG @ NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC, JCSDA Evaluation … · 2020. 11. 30. · 7th WMO Workshop on the Impact of Various Observing Systems ... Black2, Stephen Lord1, Fanglin Yang1 1
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Building a Weather-Ready Nation // 1NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
Evaluation of the impact of various observing systems on forecast skill in the NCEP Global Forecast System (GFS)November 30, 20207th WMO Workshop on the Impact of Various Observing Systems on NWP
Catherine Thomas1, Daryl Kleist1, Iliana Genkova2, Hui Shao3, Kristen Bathmann2, Haixia Liu2, Xingren Wu2, Vijay Tallapragada1, Peter Black2, Stephen Lord1, Fanglin Yang1
Building a Weather-Ready Nation // 3NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
Forecast Impacts of COSMIC-2Hui Shao, Kristen Bathmann
COSMIC-2 has a constellation of six satellites, providing about 5000 occultations per day concentrated between 45S-45N latitude. It was launched on June 25, 2019, and its data have been officially released to the public since March 6, 2020.
• Adding HDOBs in GFSv16 will improve hurricane track (left panel) and intensity (right panel) forecasts in the Atlantic and the Western Pacific, and neutral impact on track forecasts with slight degradation for intensity forecasts in the East Pacific (not shown).
Building a Weather-Ready Nation // 10NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
Atmospheric River Reconnaissance Dropsonde Data Impact in the NCEP Operational GFS
Xingren Wu, Vijay Tallapragada, Stephen J. Lord
• Total 32 IOPs, 46 AF C-130 and 16 G-IV missions, 1384 drops assimilated operationally in real-time (2016-2020).
• Data denial experiments conducted using NCEP operational GFSv15 with fully cycled 4D-Hybrid En-Var Data Assimilation System for the entire duration of AR Recon missions.
• Significant (10-30%) improvements are noted in the medium range synoptic forecasts over the Pacific North American region, and precipitation over the West Coast.
Building a Weather-Ready Nation // 11NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
LEO-GEO Atmospheric Motion VectorsIliana Genkova
• High-latitude winds from combined geostationary and polar-orbiting satellite imagery• Fills a data-gap in AMVs coverage• Add to observation sparse region near