National Hurricane Conference Mr. Mark Welshinger Office of the Federal Coordinator for Meteorology Theme: “Hurricane Season 2006: Building on the Historic 2005 Season” March 20-24, 2006 Mobile, Alabama Update on 60 th Interdepartmental Hurricane Conference
Update on 60 th Interdepartmental Hurricane Conference. Theme: “Hurricane Season 2006: Building on the Historic 2005 Season” March 20-24, 2006 Mobile, Alabama. National Hurricane Conference. Mr. Mark Welshinger Office of the Federal Coordinator for Meteorology. Overview. IHC BACKGROUND - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
This document is posted to help you gain knowledge. Please leave a comment to let me know what you think about it! Share it to your friends and learn new things together.
Transcript
National Hurricane Conference
Mr. Mark WelshingerOffice of the Federal Coordinator for Meteorology
Theme: “Hurricane Season 2006:
Building on theHistoric 2005 Season”
March 20-24, 2006Mobile, Alabama
Update on 60th Interdepartmental
Hurricane Conference
• IHC BACKGROUND
• SUCCESSES AND CHALLENGES
• IHC WORKSHOP
• SUMMARY
Overview
IHC Background
• Annual interagency conference:– Hosted by Office of the Federal Coordinator for
Meteolorolgy– Two major thrusts:
• To review the Nation's hurricane forecast and warning program
• Make recommendations on how to improve the program
• Extensive 4-day agenda (operations and research)– Highlight successes– Focus on challenges– Highlight forthcoming capabilities to meet challenges
– Improvements in track and intensity forecast accuracy
35-Year Atlantic Track Errors
Successes and Challenges
Intensity Forecasts On The Upswing
Successes and Challenges
• Challenges:
• Modeling / data assimilation / computing power
• Reconnaissance and observing
• Improved forecast accuracy for:
– Storm intensity / structure
– Storm track
– Storm surge
– Inland flooding
• Information dissemination (technology, message)
– Incorporating results of social science research into
operations
Successes and Challenges
Moderators: Dr. Betty Morrow (Soc Research) Mr. Bryan Norcross (WFOR/CBS)
Presenters: Mr. Paul Trotter, NWS (WFO New Orleans / Baton Rouge)
Dr. Brenda D. Phillips, Co-Director, Center for the Study
of Disasters and Extreme Events, Oklahoma State U.
Dr. Velma J. Deleveaux, Booz Allen Hamilton, Inc.
Ms. Naomi Moye, Abraham’s Group
IHC Workshop
Getting the “Right” Message to the Customer
IHC Workshop
Results: Getting the “Right” Message to the Customer
• New proposed communications model
• Results of social science research needs to be an integral part of hurricane forecast and warning program
• Tropical cyclone community needs to seek opportunities to identify social science research priorities
IHC Workshop
• NOAA, in conjunction with its partners, should work with diverse user groups to develop and test message format modifications
• Research should be encouraged and supported to develop and test modifications to current terminology used to define levels of hurricane threat (e.g., watch, warning, CAT 1-5, etc.)
Results: Getting the “Right” Message to the Customer
IHC Workshop
-The OFCM will coordinate bringing together appropriate federal agencies
-Begin process of reviewing and improving National hurricane warning “system”
Results: Getting the “Right” Message to the Customer
Summary
• Social science research results becoming “mainstreamed” into Nation’s hurricane forecast and warning program
• Forthcoming review of messages and hurricane warning “system”