Short rains harvests Short dry spell Reduced milk yields Increased HH Food Stocks migrations Land preparation Planting/Weeding Long rains High Calving Rate Milk Yields Increase Breeding period Long rains harvests A long dry spell Land preparation Increased HH Food Stocks Kidding (Sept) Migrations Herd separations Short rains Planting/weeding High birth rates Wedding Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec National Drought Management Authority WAJIR COUNTY DROUGHT EARLY WARNING BULLETIN FOR JULY 2016 Drought Situation & EW Phase Classification Biophysical Indicators. There was no rainfall received during the month of July 2016. The County Vegetation Index (3 Months VCI) for the month of July was 43.38 compared to the previous month vegetation greenness of 46.61. The sub counties VCI score was Tarbaj (54.05), Wajir North (51.93), Wajir South (35.27), East (34.45), Eldas (59.27) and Wajir West (36.83). The monthly vegetation greenness recorded significant deficit in Wajir South, West and East at 22.79, 19.03, and 19.59 respectively. Wajir West and East are therefore experiencing severe vegetation deficit. The main sources of water for the month of July were earth pan (46.1%), boreholes (27.3), and unprotected shallow wells (14.4%) while other sources were lagas (8.4%) and water trucking (2.2%). The water situation is normal compared to similar time last year. Socio Economic Indicators (Impact Indicators) Livestock body condition remained fair to good across livelihood zones except parts of Wajir South and East where cattle revealed poor body condition. Cases of disease Outbreak including acute camel death syndrome, CCPP, PPR, black quarter, goat and sheep box were reported. Second wave of cholera was reported in Wajir East. Terms of trade were favourable during the month while food prices remained stable. The percentage of children under five at risks of malnutrition during the month of July was 16.0 Early Warning Phase Classification Livelihood Zone Phase Trend Agro-pastoral Alert Worsening Pastoral cattle Alert Worsening Pastoral-all species Alert Worsening Pastoral camel Alert Worsening Informal employment/Bussiness Alert Worsening County Alert Worsening Biophysical Indicators value Normal Range/Value Rainfall (% of Normal) 0 80 -120 VCI-3Month 43.38 >35 Production indicators Value Normal Livestock Body Condition Normal Normal Crop production Poor Good Milk Production 32 >36litres Livestock Migration Pattern Normal Normal Livestock deaths (from drought) No death No death Access Indicators Value Normal Terms of Trade (ToT) 81 >66 Milk Consumption 30 >36 litres State of water 3-6 <5 Km Utilization indicators Value Normal Nutrition Status, MUAC (% at risk of malnutrition) 16.0 <6.6 Coping Strategy Index (CSI) 1.01 <0.95 JULY EW PHASE 2016
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Short rains harvests
Short dry spell
Reduced milk yields
Increased HH Food Stocks
migrations
Land preparation
Planting/Weeding
Long rains
High Calving Rate
Milk Yields Increase
Breeding period
Long rains harvests
A long dry spell
Land preparation
Increased HH Food Stocks
Kidding (Sept)
Migrations
Herd separations
Short rains
Planting/weeding
High birth rates
Wedding
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec
National Drought Management Authority WAJIR COUNTY DROUGHT EARLY WARNING BULLETIN FOR JULY 2016
Drought Situation & EW Phase Classification
Biophysical Indicators.
There was no rainfall received during the month of July 2016.
The County Vegetation Index (3 Months VCI) for the month of July was
43.38 compared to the previous month vegetation greenness of 46.61. The
sub counties VCI score was Tarbaj (54.05), Wajir North (51.93), Wajir
South (35.27), East (34.45), Eldas (59.27) and Wajir West (36.83). The
monthly vegetation greenness recorded significant deficit in Wajir South,
West and East at 22.79, 19.03, and 19.59 respectively. Wajir West and
East are therefore experiencing severe vegetation deficit.
The main sources of water for the month of July were earth pan (46.1%),
boreholes (27.3), and unprotected shallow wells (14.4%) while other
sources were lagas (8.4%) and water trucking (2.2%). The water situation
is normal compared to similar time last year.
Socio Economic Indicators (Impact Indicators)
Livestock body condition remained fair to good across livelihood zones
except parts of Wajir South and East where cattle revealed poor body
condition. Cases of disease Outbreak including acute camel death
syndrome, CCPP, PPR, black quarter, goat and sheep box were reported.
Second wave of cholera was reported in Wajir East. Terms of trade were
favourable during the month while food prices remained stable. The
percentage of children under five at risks of malnutrition during the month
of July was 16.0
Early Warning Phase Classification Livelihood Zone Phase Trend
Agro-pastoral Alert Worsening
Pastoral cattle Alert Worsening
Pastoral-all species Alert Worsening
Pastoral camel Alert Worsening
Informal employment/Bussiness Alert Worsening
County Alert Worsening
Biophysical Indicators value Normal Range/Value
Rainfall (% of Normal) 0 80 -120
VCI-3Month 43.38 >35
Production indicators Value Normal
Livestock Body Condition Normal Normal
Crop production Poor Good
Milk Production 32 >36litres
Livestock Migration Pattern Normal Normal
Livestock deaths (from drought) No death No death
Access Indicators Value Normal
Terms of Trade (ToT) 81 >66
Milk Consumption 30 >36 litres
State of water 3-6 <5 Km
Utilization indicators Value Normal
Nutrition Status, MUAC (% at risk of malnutrition)
16.0 <6.6
Coping Strategy Index (CSI) 1.01 <0.95
JULY EW PHASE 2016
Drought status: ALERT
1.0 CLIMATIC CONDITION 1.1 RAINFALL PERFORMANCE
There was no rainfall received during the months under review. The reporting period was dry and
windy with increased daytime temperatures. This is normal at this time of the year.
Amount of rainfall and Spatial distribution 1.1.1 Rainfall station data
Figure 1: A graph indicating the performance of the Long Rain
Figure 2: A chart indicating vegetation anomalies of Wajir County
2.0 IMPACTS ON VEGETATION AND WATER
2.1 Vegetation Condition
2.1.1 Vegetation condition index (VCI)
The vegetation condition remained normal and within the long term average in agro-pastoral,
pastoral camel and Eldas part of pastoral all species while the situation remained below normal in
Wajir South cattle pastoral, West all species and Wajir East pastoral cattle. The County vegetation
greenness remained stable with a three months cumulative VCI record of 43.38 while the monthly
vegetation index revealed severe greenness deficit in Wajir East and Wajir West with low value
records of 19.49 and 19.03 respectively. This indicates below normal vegetation.
Figure 3: A chart of Wajir County overall 3-monthly VCI during the month of July 2016
Figure 4: A matrix of 3-monthly VCI for Wajir County during the month of July 2016.
2.1.2 Pasture Pasture situation was showing good to fair in Wajir North agro-pastoral, Eldas all species and
Tarbaj pastoral camel. The pasture condition in Wajir South pastoral cattle and Wajir East camel
pastoral was ranging from fair to poor with most parts indicating high level of pasture stress.
The current available pasture is expected to last 1-2 months in pastoral all species and agro pastoral
while it only last 2-3 weeks in pastoral cattle and parts of camel pastoral mainly Wajir Bor and
Dashega areas.
2.1.3 Browse
During the months, the situation of browse ranged from good to fair in the county with wajir North
agro-pastoral and Pastoral camel areas showing normal browse condition. Pastoral all species in
wajir west, parts of pastoral camel including Wajir bor and pastoral cattle in Wajir South have fair
to poor vegetation condition which is below normal at this time of the year. The currently available
browse will last for 1-2 month in Tarbaj pastoral camel and Wajir North agro-pastoral while it may
last less than a month in Wajir East and South thus affecting productivity.
2.2 Water Sources
The main sources of water are boreholes, shallow wells and water pans. The situation of water has
declined as compared to the previous month but normal at this time of the year. The trekking
distances to water sources increased significantly compared to the previous month, similar period
last year and the mean averages. The available water will last for 1-2 months for water pans and
till the next rainfall season for shallow wells and boreholes.
2.2.2 Household access and Utilization
Figure 5: A chart indicating return distance to water sources against 2014-2015 average
6.7
8
8.6
8.5
4.1
4.9
4.13
0 2 4 6 8 10 12
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
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12
Distance in Km
Mo
nth
s
Household access to Water Source Average 2014-15 Year 2015 2016
The current average return distance to water sources for households decreased from 4.9km
in the months of June to 4.13km during the month under review. The reduced distances
could be attributed to livestock coming back from far grazing areas to water sources near
the settlements during this dry spell.
The average day-to-day household water consumption indicated decrease from (30-50)
litres per household per day to 40-60 litres and this is normal at this time of the year.
The current water stressed areas are Batalu, Diff, Aktalehel, Malkagufu and Burmayo.
The current major water sources in the county are water pans, shallow wells and boreholes
in all livelihood zones. Agro pastoral livelihood mainly depend on water pans
Household access to water and utilization changed during the month under review.
The current open water sources are expected to last for 1-2 months which are normal at
this time of the year
2.2.3 Livestock access
Figure 6: A graph indicating current grazing distance against (2014-2015) average
Average livestock grazing distance to water point change from 6.4 kilometres in June to
9.1km in July with a slight change which was attributed to drying up of open water sources
and pans leading to longer distance. This was normal at this time of the year.
Current distance is below the long term average for the months under review.