National Consortium for the Study of Terrorism and Responses to Terrorism A Center of Excellence of the U.S. Department of Homeland Security Annual Meeting 2016 Quick Fire 1: Counterterrorism, Countering Violent Extremism, Deradicalization • Dynamics of Terrorism and Counterterrorism Campaigns presented by Victor Asal • Comparing Failed, Foiled, Completed and Successful Terrorist Attacks presented by Margaret Wilson • Government Actions in Terrorist Environments (GATE) presented by Laura Dugan • Attitudes within American Subcultures presented by Clark McCauley • ICONS: Search for Common Ground (SFCG) Morocco presented by Devin Ellis • Catch Them Coming and Going (Foreign Fighters) presented by Marcus Boyd • Deradicalization of Extremists presented by Katarzyna Jasko • Empirical Assessment of Domestic Disengagement and Deradicalization (EAD3) presented by Michael Jensen
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National Consortium for the Study of Terrorism and Responses to TerrorismA Center of Excellence of the U.S. Department of Homeland Security
Annual Meeting 2016Quick Fire 1: Counterterrorism, Countering Violent
Extremism, Deradicalization• Dynamics of Terrorism and Counterterrorism Campaigns presented by Victor Asal
• Comparing Failed, Foiled, Completed and Successful Terrorist Attacks presented by Margaret Wilson
• Government Actions in Terrorist Environments (GATE) presented by Laura Dugan
• Attitudes within American Subcultures presented by Clark McCauley
• ICONS: Search for Common Ground (SFCG) Morocco presented by Devin Ellis
• Catch Them Coming and Going (Foreign Fighters) presented by Marcus Boyd
• Deradicalization of Extremists presented by Katarzyna Jasko
• Empirical Assessment of Domestic Disengagement and Deradicalization (EAD3) presented by Michael Jensen
National Consortium for the Study of Terrorism and Responses to TerrorismA Center of Excellence of the U.S. Department of Homeland Security
Dynamics of Terrorism and Counterterrorism Campaigns Victor Asal, R. Karl Rethemeyer and Joseph Young
Project Overview:• Cross-national info on CT/COIN efforts• Impact of kinetic (stick), diplomacy (carrot) or
combination (mixed) on violence by VNSA• Differences regionally or by type of VNSA? • What features make VNSAs more likely to be targeted? • Initial results
• For MENA insurgency: Stick & mix increase violence
• Worldwide insurgency:• Carrot, stick & mixed reduce battle deaths• Carrot reduces terrorism; no effect stick & mix
Future Directions:• Subset data, examine across regions & look at terrorist
organizations not just insurgencies • Predict out of sample
National Consortium for the Study of Terrorism and Responses to TerrorismA Center of Excellence of the U.S. Department of Homeland Security
Victor Asal
(518) 591-8729
National Consortium for the Study of Terrorism and Responses to TerrorismA Center of Excellence of the U.S. Department of Homeland Security
Comparing Failed, Foiled, Completed and Successful Terrorist Attacks Martha Crenshaw, Erik Dahl and Margaret Wilson
Planning: Communication of intent
Preparation: Acquiring capability
Practice: Training or dry runs
Plan Complete: Ready to put into action
In Progress: Plan is being implemented
Stage of Plot Progress
Stage of D
etection
and
Stage of In
terventio
n
Stag
e o
f Fa
ilure
OUTCOME: Injuries and Deaths
Completed and successful:Included for comparison
FAILED: An Internal Failure of the Plan
TechnicalFailure
HumanFailure
FOILED: An External Intervention
PublicFoiled
Authority Foiled
•Who? •Where? •What? •When? •How?[e.g. Target, Affiliation, Foreign Fighters,Training Oversees, Weapons, Form of Attack]
InformantSurveillanceCommunity tip offFamily tip offRaidField intervention Separate investigation
DATA COMPLETE
112 US Plots [1993-2016]71% Foiled (+5% part)
CODING IN PROGRESS
Around 250 plots in Europe, Australia and NZ
National Consortium for the Study of Terrorism and Responses to TerrorismA Center of Excellence of the U.S. Department of Homeland Security
Dr Margaret Wilson
National Consortium for the Study of Terrorism and Responses to TerrorismA Center of Excellence of the U.S. Department of Homeland Security
Government Actions in Terror Environments (GATE-USA) Laura Dugan & Erica Chenoweth
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iole
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e C
rim
es
Nu
mb
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ttac
ks a
nd
Ho
mic
ides
Year
Rightwing Attacks
Rightwing Homicides
Anti-Minority Violent Hate Crimes
-.6
-.4
-.2
0.2
Pa
rtia
l Resi
du
als
of R
W L
oca
l Att
ack
s
0 2 4 6Rightwing Conciliatory Policy Acts
Federal Policy Actions that Favor the RW Agenda on RW Terrorist attacks in the US
Federal Indiscriminate Actions that Favor Minorities on Violent Hate Crimes Against Minorities
-20
02
04
06
0
Com
pon
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pa
rtia
l re
sid
ua
ls fo
r an
tiC
ivil_v
0 1 2 3 4 5Lagged Repress Indiscrim RW Civil Rights relev actions
GAM 3 df smooth for civrirwla,adjusted for covariates
-1-.
50
Com
pon
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pa
rtia
l re
sid
ua
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r rw
latt_
po
pth
0 5 10 15Lagged RW Repressive Discriminate
GAM 3 df smooth for rrdisla,adjusted for covariates
Discriminate Repressive Actions on RW Terrorist attacks in the US
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1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001
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mb
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f Te
rro
rist
Att
acks
Nu
mb
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f G
ove
rnm
ent
Act
ion
s
Month
Repressive Rightwing Policy Actions
Conciliatory Rightwing Policy Actions
Known Rightwing US Attacks
National Consortium for the Study of Terrorism and Responses to TerrorismA Center of Excellence of the U.S. Department of Homeland Security
Laura Dugan
301-405-4070
National Consortium for the Study of Terrorism and Responses to TerrorismA Center of Excellence of the U.S. Department of Homeland Security
Attitudes within American Subcultures: Clark McCauley and Sophia Moskalenko
Internet polls of U.S. Muslims (3 years, 5 waves, @ n=200, faster turnaround, cheaper, more honesty on sensitive questions)Selected results May-June vs Jan-Feb 2016: • Fewer seeing WOT as was on Islam. Continued very negative
opinions and meta-opinions of suicide bombing and of ISIS. Experiences of discrimination do not predict support for ISIS or support for suicide bombing; male and younger weak predict.
• Increased support for admitting Syrian refugees in U.S. and for U.S. military intervention against Assad; increased blame for U.S. role in the Syrian refugee crisis; increased belief that Jewish interests control U.S. foreign policy; decreased support for ‘United States of Islam’.
• 25% do not support U.S. Muslims who travel to fight Assad; 70% do not support U.S. Muslims who want to join ISIS
National Consortium for the Study of Terrorism and Responses to TerrorismA Center of Excellence of the U.S. Department of Homeland Security
Clark McCauley
610 420 7118
Contact
www.start.umd.edu
National Consortium for the Study of Terrorism and Responses to TerrorismA Center of Excellence of the U.S. Department of Homeland Security
ICONS: Search for Common Ground (SFCG) Morocco Devin Ellis
ICO
NS
des
ign
ed a
nd
del
iver
ed a
th
ree
-ph
ase
sim
ula
tio
n t
o f
acili
tate
bri
dge
bu
ildin
g ac
ross
com
mu
nit
ies
in T
éto
uan
and
Tan
gier
, Mo
rocc
o.
Objective: Train local Youth Council members on how to advocate to stakeholders to address deterioration in public schools
• Over 50 teenagers and young adults from Tangier and Tetouan were recruited to participate in the simulation
Training Goals: Engage and develop critical negotiation and communication skills of youth participants
Build Skills Intercultural Communication
Problem Solving Negotiation
Conflict Management Team Building
Decision Making
Improve Relationships
Improve relationships between team members through the intensive experience
of working together to solve a problem
Change Attitudes
Challenge stereotypes and increase empathy for the “other” through role reversal,
collaborative problem solving, etc.
Youth Advocacy TeamGoal: Improve Transportation
Conditions
School Official TeamGoal: Improve school
infrastructure
Donor TeamGoal: Improve
education/facilitate cooperation
Parents Group TeamGoal: improve
transportation safety
Local Police TeamGoal: move away from
school safety and allocate resources
elsewhere
Teams: 10-15 people each
ScenarioA private company in Morocco pledges to donate money to either:
a) improve schools or b) assist with transportation in Tangiers and Tétouan
To obtain funding, youth advocacy and school official groups must work together to agree on one donor proposal
Learning Outcomes • 83% felt that this training was relevant to
issues• 83% felt that they could better collaborate
with others after the simulation• 85% felt confident that they can work
collaboratively with community stakeholders after the sim
• Most respondents stated that they learned how to both communicate and negotiate better
• Most participants reported that they gained better conflict resolution skills
• Several participants reported that they now saw the value of advocacy, and felt more empowered to advocate in their communities.
National Consortium for the Study of Terrorism and Responses to TerrorismA Center of Excellence of the U.S. Department of Homeland Security
Devin Ellis
(301) 405 - 5313
National Consortium for the Study of Terrorism and Responses to TerrorismA Center of Excellence of the U.S. Department of Homeland Security
Catch Them Coming and Going Marcus A. Boyd
Project Overview:• A weighted least-cost path analysis forecasting foreign fighter routes between Europe and Syria/Iraq
• A custom analysis based on START’s TransIT methodology
• Findings suggest accuracy in identifying pathways used by both foreign fighters and refugees/migrants
National Consortium for the Study of Terrorism and Responses to TerrorismA Center of Excellence of the U.S. Department of Homeland Security
Marcus A. Boyd
301-405-6600
National Consortium for the Study of Terrorism and Responses to TerrorismA Center of Excellence of the U.S. Department of Homeland Security
Deradicalization of Extremists Arie Kruglanski
• Effectiveness of Sri Lankan rehabilitation of detained members of the LTTE
• Longitudinal assessment revealed significant deradicalization after 1 year
• Follow-up with reintegrated LTTE members revealed:– LTTE were less extreme than
Tamil community members
– Rehab’s ability to address significance concerns was the driver of reduced extremism
F = 76.98, p < .001, η2 = .20
Rehabilitation Attitudes
Significance Extremism
Number of Programs
Significance Extremism
National Consortium for the Study of Terrorism and Responses to TerrorismA Center of Excellence of the U.S. Department of Homeland Security
Kate [email protected]
Research TeamArie Kruglanski
Michele GelfandDavid Webber
Kasia JaskoKate Touchton-LeonardMalkanthi Hettiarachchi
Rohan Gunaratna
National Consortium for the Study of Terrorism and Responses to TerrorismA Center of Excellence of the U.S. Department of Homeland Security
Empirical Assessment of Domestic Disengagement and Deradicalization (EAD3)
Michael Jensen (PI), Pete Simi (Co-PI), and Gina Ligon (Co-PI)
Quantitative Component: PIRUS-D3• Advance an empirical understanding of
the pathways out of extremism by amending the PIRUS database to include information in cognitive de-radicalization, behavioral disengagement, and criminal desistance.
• PIRUS-D3 adds more than 85 new variables to the PIRUS database that capture the influence of prison, community-based programs, and life-course events on disengagement from extremist behaviors.
• The project team has completed the coding for more than 400 individuals in the PIRUS database and is now moving on to analysis.
Qualitative Component: Life History Study of Extremism• Advance an empirical understanding of
the pathways out of extremism by conducting in-depth life history interviews with sample of former far-right, far-left, and jihadi extremists (n=30).
• Analysis includes both grounded theory approach and model of circumplexaffect (in order to specifically focus on emotional markers present in the life history narratives).
• Systematic content analysis of existing literature to determine common themes related to exit from terrorism, street gangs, and cults etc.
National Consortium for the Study of Terrorism and Responses to TerrorismA Center of Excellence of the U.S. Department of Homeland Security
Michael Jensen, Ph.D.
START, University of Maryland
Pete Simi, Ph.D.
Chapman University
Gina Ligon, Ph.D.
University of Nebraska, Omaha
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