1 March 2018 National Climate and Water Briefing
1 March 2018
National Climate and
Water Briefing
Welcome
Gary AllanAgriculture program, Bureau of Meteorology
Photo: Lake Cawndilla, Menindee lakes, Paul Sheahan
Darren RayAgriculture program, Bureau of Meteorology
Climate and water
conditions and outlook
Image:www.blaxwine.com.au
Evolution of
climate drivers
• Evolution of climate drivers
• Recent conditions
• Seasonal outlook
2017–18 La Niña
Latest NINO 3.4 : –0.6°C
Sea surface temperature anomaliesWeek ending 25 February 2018
Ocean temperatures
Sea surface temperatures October 2017 – January 2018
Recent conditions
• Evolution of climate drivers
• Recent conditions
• End of year outlook
Summer temperatures
Maximum
temperature
Minimum
temperature
In top three hottest summers for Australia
Summer temperatures
December January February
Maximum
Minimum
As at 26 February 2018
Summer temperatures
First half of summer 2017–18 Second half of summer 2017–18
Difference from average maximum temperatures
Summer rainfall
• Late monsoon development
• Three tropical cyclones in northern WA
• Not a typical La Niña pattern in the east
Lowest
on
record
Very
much
below
average
Below
Average
Average Above
Average
Very
much
above
average
Highest
on
record
Average summer rainfall in La Niña
Summer rainfall
December January February
Lowest
on
record
Very
much
below
average
Below
Average
Average Above
Average
Very
much
above
average
Highest
on
record
As at 26 February 2018
Tropical
cyclone
HildaTropical
cyclone
Joyce
Tropical
cyclone
Kelvin
Rainfall: January 2018
Effective rainfallRainfall
Lower-layer soil moisture (10–100cm)
January: 1-month change January soil moisture
Observed streamflow: January 2018
Australia-wide
South West Coast
Tasmania
Murray–Darling
Basin
South East
Coast (Vic)
South East
Coast (NSW)
North East Coast
Tanami / Timor Sea
Water storage levels
As at 22 February 2018
Water storage levels
As at 22 February 2018
Summer flooding
Broome, Western Australia
• Wettest January, February, and summer
on record (1698.2 mm)
• Wettest year on record—and it's only
February
Canberra: 24–25 February 2018
-100
100
300
500
700
900
1100
1300
1500
1700
0
100
200
300
400
500
1-Dec-17 1-Jan-18 1-Feb-18
Tota
l rai
nfa
ll (m
m)
Dai
ly r
ain
fall
(mm
)
Broome Airport rainfall, summer 2017–18
Daily rainfall (mm) Total rainfall (mm)
Rainfall total: 23–26 February 2018
Ph
oto
so
urc
e: A
BC
New
s
Seasonal outlook
• Evolution of climate drivers
• Recent conditions
• Seasonal outlook
El Niño–Southern Oscillation outlook: February 2018
OISSTv2 (1981-2010)
NINO3.4 outlook
NIN
O3
.4 (
°C)
La Niña
El Niño
-2
-1.6
-1.2
-0.8
-0.4
0
0.4
0.8
1.2
1.6
2
observed
BOM
Canada
ECMWF
Japan
Meteofrance
NASA
NOAA
UKMO
Now
March–May rainfall outlook
Chance of exceeding median rainfall
April
MarchPast accuracy
Past accuracy Past accuracy
Maximum temperature outlook: March–May 2018
Chance of exceeding median maximum
temperature
Past accuracy
Past accuracy
Past accuracy
March
April
Minimum temperature outlook: March–May 2018
Chance of exceeding median minimum
temperature
MarchPast accuracy
Past accuracy Past accuracy
April
Seasonal streamflow outlook: February–April 2018
South West Coast
South East Coast
(NSW)
Murray–Darling
Basin
Australia
Tasmania South East Coast
(Vic)
North East Coast
Tanami–Timor Sea
Coast
Summary
• Weak La Niña conditions since early December—atypical impacts; now winding up
• Delayed northern monsoon onset and several tropical cyclones in northwest
• Summer rainfall below average in the east, above average in the west
• Well above average temperatures for most of the country
• Soil moisture well below average across eastern half of the country
• Drier and warmer than average autumn likely for most areas
• Low or near median streamflows likely to continue in most locations through autumn
Thank you
Questions?Darren Ray
Next briefing
29 March 2018