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ood
Australian vocational education and training statistics
VET qualification completion rates 2018
National Centre for Vocational Education Research
Highlights This publication presents the first observed actual
completion rates for nationally recognised vocational education and
training (VET) qualifications collected under total VET activity,
that is, for qualifications that commenced in 2015. Completion
rates are projected for subsequent years.
Completion rates for VET qualifications commencing in 2015, the
first year for which observed actual rates are available, were:
• 41.4% for all qualifications
• 42.0% for training package qualifications
• 35.7% for accredited qualifications
• 30.0% for qualifications at certificate I
• 36.1% for qualifications at diploma or higher
• 46.6% for government-funded qualifications undertaken by
domestic students
• 33.5% for fee-for-service qualifications undertaken by
domestic students
• 58.3% for fee-for-service qualifications undertaken by
international students.
• By level of education, completion rates were highest for
certificate IVqualifications (47.0%) followed by certificate III
(44.5%).
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© Commonwealth of Australia, 2020
With the exception of the Commonwealth Coat of Arms, the
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where
otherwise noted all material presented in this document is
provided under a Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 Australia
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enquiries
concerning other reproduction and rights should be directed to
the National Centre for Vocational Education Research (NCVER).
This document should be attributed as NCVER 2020, Australian
vocational education and training statistics: VET qualification
completion
rates 2018, NCVER, Adelaide.
This work has been produced by NCVER on behalf of the Australian
Government and state and territory governments, with funding
provided through the Australian Government Department of
Education, Skills and Employment.
The views and opinions expressed in this document are those of
NCVER and do not necessarily reflect the views of the
Australian
Government or state and territory governments.
ISBN 978-1-925717-58-7
TD/TNC 140.16
Comments and suggestions regarding this publication are welcomed
and should be forwarded to NCVER.
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VET qualification completion rates 2018 3
Contents Introduction 4
Summary 5
Tables 7
Terms 10
Explanatory notes 12
Tables 1 Observed actual and projected qualification completion
rates and subject load pass rates
by type of training for qualifications at certificate I and
above, commencing in 2015–18 7
2 Observed actual and projected qualification completion rates
and subject load pass rates by level of education for
qualifications at certificate I and above, commencing in 2015–18
7
3 Observed actual and projected qualification completion rates
and subject load pass rates by state/territory of delivery location
for qualifications at certificate I and above, commencing in
2015–18 8
4 Observed actual and projected qualification completion rates
and subject load pass rates by provider type for qualifications at
certificate I and above, commencing in 2015–18 8
5 Observed actual and projected qualification completion rates
and subject load pass rates by funding source for qualifications at
certificate I and above, commencing in 2015–18 8
6 Observed actual and projected qualification completion rates
and subject load pass rates by level of education for
government-funded qualifications at certificate I and above,
commencing in 2015–18 9
7 Observed actual and projected qualification completion rates
and subject load pass rates by level of education for domestic
fee-for-service funded qualifications at certificate I and above,
commencing in 2015–18 9
8 Observed actual and projected qualification completion rates
and subject load pass rates by level of education for international
fee-for-service funded qualifications at certificate I and above,
commencing in 2015–18 9
Figures 1 Completion rates for nationally recognised VET
qualifications commencing in 2015 by level of education (%) 5
2 Subject load pass rates for nationally recognised VET
qualifications commencing in 2018 by level of education (%) 6
3 Definition of the states of a VET qualification in the Markov
chain model used to calculate completion rates 13
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4 Australian vocational education and training statistics
Introduction
This publication presents completion rates for nationally
recognised vocational education and training (VET) qualifications;
namely training package qualifications and accredited
qualifications, at certificate I or above.
About this publication A qualification completion rate is the
proportion of VET qualifications started in a given year that will
eventually be completed.
Completion rates are simple to calculate with a cohort of
students who start together in a very short qualification with a
defined end date. The context in VET is, however, far more complex.
Qualification lengths vary and may span several years, students
commence at different times, and many study part-time. Waiting for
all students to complete or ‘drop out’ of their training before
calculating an actual completion rate gives a reliable answer but
does not provide timely data. For this reason, the National Centre
for Vocational Education Research (NCVER) calculates two different
rates:
• Observed actual completion rates are calculated using the
unique student identifier (USI) or other student and registered
training organisation (RTO) attributes to link data for an
individual student at a given RTO from commencement to completion.
In this way, an accurate measure of the proportion of students who
begin a VET qualification in a given year who then go on to
complete can be reported. Observed actual rates are only reported
for qualifications that commenced four years prior to the most
recent data collection period, based on the assumption that enough
time has passed for all students who were going to complete their
qualification to have done so. We allow four years for students to
complete their qualification, based on the duration of a typical
qualification and how long it takes for a completion to be
reported.
• Projected completion rates are an estimate of the proportion
of VET qualifications commenced in a given year that will
eventually be completed. Rates for the three most recent years are
projected to account for students taking different lengths of time
to complete their qualification. Projected rates for commencements
in recent years, particularly 2018, are overstated to due the
projection methodology. Projected completion rates become more
accurate over the three years until they become observed actual
rates in the fourth year. Refer to the explanatory notes for
further details.
Completion rates presented in this publication differ from
completion numbers presented in Total VET students and courses.
Completion numbers presented in that publication are a raw count of
the number of qualifications that were completed each year,
regardless of when they commenced. As such, they cannot be used to
derive completion rates for qualifications that commenced in a
given year.
Qualification completion rates are presented here with subject
load pass rates (for subjects associated with qualifications at
certificate I or above) in each table of this publication. There
are distinct differences between qualification completion and
subject load pass rates and how these are calculated; as such,
trends may differ both in size and direction. Subject load pass
rates provide an indication of how a collection of students are
progressing in a single year, as subjects are usually completed
within the year. Qualification completion rates provide insight
into the proportion of students that enrol in a qualification who
complete their training and the proportion who do not.
More information Completion rates previously published for a
particular year are revised each year due to the reporting of
additional qualification completions in the National VET Provider
Collection and National VET in Schools Collection.
For projected completion rates for various demographic and
training attributes, please see the supporting data product
available at .
For more information, refer to the explanatory notes on page
12.
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VET qualification completion rates 2018 5
Summary
Completion rates Completion rates are projected for the first
three years after a qualification commenced. Observed actual
completion rates are only reported for qualifications that
commenced in 2015, based on the assumption that enough time has
passed for all students who were going to complete their
qualification to have done so.
Observed actual completion rates Completion rates for nationally
recognised VET qualifications commencing in 2015 were:
• 41.4% for all qualifications • 42.0% for training package
qualifications • 35.7% for accredited qualifications
By level of education, completion rates were highest for
certificate IV qualifications (47.0%) followed by certificate III
(44.5%).
Projected completion rates The completion rate for nationally
recognised VET qualifications that:
• commenced in 2016 is projected to be 42.0% • commenced in 2017
is projected to be 45.6%. • commenced in 2018 is projected to be
52.0%.
Projected completion rates, particularly for qualifications
commencing in 2018, are likely to be overstated due to the high
proportion of continuing students in the forecast calculations. As
time passes, projections come closer to observed actuals as more
records reach their final state of “completed” or “discontinued”
(refer to the explanatory notes on page 12 for further
information). Any trend analysis must be made with caution due to
the preliminary nature of the most recently submitted data.
Figure 1 Observed actual and projected completion rates for
nationally recognised VET qualifications commencing in 2015-2018 by
level of education (%)
* Projected completion rates, particularly for qualifications
commencing in 2018, are likely to be overstated due to the high
proportion of continuing students in the forecast calculations. As
time passes, projections come closer to actuals as more records
reach their final state of “completed” or “discontinued”.
30.0
41.244.5
47.0
36.1
29.7
39.742.9
47.443.8
28.5
41.045.1
51.956.6
38.4
45.751.0
58.363.5
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Certificate I Certificate II Certificate III Certificate IV
Diploma or higher
2015 (observed actual) 2016 (projected) 2017 (projected) 2018
(projected*)
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6 Australian vocational education and training statistics
Subject load pass rates A VET qualification is made up of a
number of subjects, also referred to as ‘modules’ or ‘units of
competency’. The subject load pass rate is weighted to account for
the fact that subjects are of different lengths. The calculation is
based on the annual hours (or full year training equivalent — FYTE)
for each assessable module or unit of competency. A subject load
pass rate is the ratio of hours studied by students who passed
their subject(s) to the total hours committed to by all students
who passed, failed or withdrew from the corresponding
subject(s).
For qualifications that commenced in 2018, subject load pass
rates were:
• 82.7% for all qualifications • 83.6% for training package
qualifications • 72.6% for accredited qualifications
By level of education, subject load pass rates were highest for
certificate III qualifications (84.8%) followed by certificate II
(83.5%) qualifications that commenced in 2018.
Subject load pass rates have remained steady over the last four
years for all qualification levels with the exception of diploma or
higher level qualifications where rates increased by 8.7 percentage
points between 2015 and 2018.
Figure 2 Subject load pass rates for nationally recognised VET
qualifications commencing in 2015-2018 by level of education
(%)
68.3
82.286.7
83.3
72.072.2
83.6 86.0 81.6
71.871.2
83.2 85.2 81.577.2
71.5
83.5 84.8 82.7 80.7
0
20
40
60
80
100
Certificate I Certificate II Certificate III Certificate IV
Diploma or higher
2015 2016 2017 2018
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VET qualification completion rates 2018 7
Tables Table 1 Observed actual and projected qualification
completion rates and subject load pass rates by type of training
for
qualifications at certificate I and above, commencing in
2015–18
Type of training Qualification completion rate (%) Subject load
pass rate (%) Observed Actual Projected
2015 2016 2017 2018 2015 2016 2017 2018
Training package qualifications 42.0 42.6 46.6 53.4 81.3 80.5
82.2 83.6
Accredited qualifications 35.7 36.3 36.1 39.3 71.4 72.7 72.4
72.6
Total 41.4 42.0 45.6 52.0 80.4 79.8 81.4 82.7
For explanatory notes see page 12.
Table 2 Observed actual and projected qualification completion
rates and subject load pass rates by level of education for
qualifications at certificate I and above, commencing in
2015–18
Level of education Qualification completion rate (%) Subject
load pass rate (%) Observed Actual Projected
2015 2016 2017 2018 2015 2016 2017 2018
Diploma or higher 36.1 43.8 56.6 63.5 72.0 71.8 77.2 80.7
Certificate IV 47.0 47.4 51.9 58.3 83.3 81.6 81.5 82.7
Certificate III 44.5 42.9 45.1 51.0 86.7 86.0 85.2 84.8
Certificate II 41.2 39.7 41.0 45.7 82.2 83.6 83.2 83.5
Certificate I 30.0 29.7 28.5 38.4 68.3 72.2 71.2 71.5
Total 41.4 42.0 45.6 52.0 80.4 79.8 81.4 82.7
For explanatory notes see page 12.
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8 Australian vocational education and training statistics
Table 3 Observed actual and projected qualification completion
rates and subject load pass rates by state/territory of delivery
location for qualifications at certificate I and above, commencing
in 2015–18
State/territory of delivery location
Qualification completion rate (%) Subject load pass rate (%)
Observed Actual Projected
2015 2016 2017 2018 2015 2016 2017 2018
Australia (onshore) 41.2 41.7 45.3 51.8 80.2 79.6 81.2 82.6
New South Wales 39.1 43.6 48.0 53.4 73.4 74.4 76.2 78.8
Victoria 41.5 37.7 41.0 48.0 80.1 80.4 80.5 80.9
Queensland 43.1 43.4 45.7 53.6 83.8 81.0 85.8 87.3
South Australia 37.6 37.9 43.6 49.8 88.4 86.1 87.2 88.6
Western Australia 42.8 44.2 48.4 52.9 85.3 84.3 83.9 84.4
Tasmania 38.3 37.4 54.9 58.4 84.2 83.6 83.6 84.8
Northern Territory 38.6 37.4 40.7 45.8 84.0 81.5 82.4 83.5
Australian Capital Territory 42.0 44.4 46.0 48.5 81.5 84.2 84.7
84.7
Other1 50.7 54.7 51.6 64.3 60.0 77.9 69.9 99.3
Offshore 67.2 76.1 73.9 82.9 94.0 94.3 93.4 94.6
Total 41.4 42.0 45.6 52.0 80.4 79.8 81.4 82.7
1 Other includes Other Australian territories and dependencies
and where the state is Not known. Projected rates of completion may
not be directly comparable across jurisdictions, with rates being
impacted by differing jurisdictional enrolment practices and
funding policies. For explanatory notes see page 12.
Table 4 Observed actual and projected qualification completion
rates and subject load pass rates by provider type for
qualifications at certificate I and above, commencing in
2015–18
Provider type Qualification completion rate (%) Subject load
pass rate (%) Observed Actual Projected
2015 2016 2017 2018 2015 2016 2017 2018
TAFE institutes 40.0 39.8 41.9 46.3 80.8 80.3 80.9 80.8
Universities 44.1 45.0 45.0 46.9 78.4 76.9 76.6 76.7
Schools 48.3 46.1 47.8 58.0 78.0 79.3 79.3 79.4 Community
education providers 38.7 42.7 43.5 50.4 83.6 85.7 86.4 86.8
Enterprise providers 47.3 52.5 55.7 61.1 88.9 86.3 90.4 89.3
Private training providers 41.2 42.0 47.1 54.2 80.0 79.1 81.5
84.0
Total 41.4 42.0 45.6 52.0 80.4 79.8 81.4 82.7
Projected rates of completion may not be directly comparable
across provider types, with rates being impacted by differing
enrolment practices and mix of qualifications and cohorts. For
explanatory notes see page 12.
Table 5 Observed actual and projected qualification completion
rates and subject load pass rates by funding source for
qualifications at certificate I and above, commencing in
2015–18
Funding source Qualification completion rate (%) Subject load
pass rate (%) Observed Actual Projected
2015 2016 2017 2018 2015 2016 2017 2018
Government funding 46.6 45.0 46.5 51.4 83.3 83.0 83.0 83.1
Domestic fee-for-service funding 33.5 34.8 40.4 48.2 74.9 73.9 78.5
82.1
International fee-for-service funding 58.3 62.5 63.4 69.0 83.2
83.9 82.6 82.5
Total 41.4 42.0 45.6 52.0 80.4 79.8 81.4 82.7
For explanatory notes see page 12.
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VET qualification completion rates 2018 9
Table 6 Observed actual and projected qualification completion
rates and subject load pass rates by level of education for
government-funded qualifications at certificate I and above,
commencing in 2015–18
Government-funded Qualification completion rate (%) Subject load
pass rate (%) Observed Actual Projected
Level of education 2015 2016 2017 2018 2015 2016 2017 2018
Diploma or higher 50.2 50.8 54.6 59.0 82.9 82.1 82.0 82.6
Certificate IV 47.4 47.2 49.5 55.7 82.4 80.4 81.9 81.9
Certificate III 50.5 47.3 50.6 55.4 86.3 86.2 85.8 85.6
Certificate II 42.9 43.0 41.8 46.3 80.8 81.5 81.2 81.3
Certificate I 36.7 34.6 33.0 37.3 68.0 70.5 68.8 69.1
Total 46.6 45.0 46.5 51.4 83.3 83.0 83.0 83.1
For explanatory notes see page 12.
Table 7 Observed actual and projected qualification completion
rates and subject load pass rates by level of education for
domestic fee-for-service funded qualifications at certificate I and
above, commencing in 2015–18
Domestic fee-for-service Qualification completion rate (%)
Subject load pass rate (%) Observed Actual Projected
Level of education 2015 2016 2017 2018 2015 2016 2017 2018
Diploma or higher 28.2 35.8 54.9 63.7 61.6 61.3 70.1 77.3
Certificate IV 44.5 44.0 50.6 57.1 85.1 82.7 81.4 83.9
Certificate III 32.8 33.0 34.0 41.6 88.2 85.9 84.1 82.9
Certificate II 37.4 32.4 38.5 43.0 86.7 90.4 89.2 90.4
Certificate I 15.5 17.3 18.3 39.5 69.6 81.9 83.0 83.3
Total 33.5 34.8 40.4 48.2 74.9 73.9 78.5 82.1
For explanatory notes see page 12.
Table 8 Observed actual and projected qualification completion
rates and subject load pass rates by level of education for
international fee-for-service funded qualifications at certificate
I and above, commencing in 2015–18
International fee-for-service
Qualification completion rate (%) Subject load pass rate (%)
Observed Actual Projected
Level of education 2015 2016 2017 2018 2015 2016 2017 2018
Diploma or higher 55.1 59.7 61.5 67.4 83.5 84.6 83.6 82.5
Certificate IV 58.6 63.9 63.7 69.4 80.7 82.6 79.8 81.9
Certificate III 64.0 65.9 68.1 71.9 85.7 83.8 83.5 83.7
Certificate II 58.8 64.3 62.2 69.7 80.5 80.8 77.8 79.7
Certificate I 60.3 57.9 58.0 67.3 78.8 78.3 75.0 70.3
Total 58.3 62.5 63.4 69.0 83.2 83.9 82.6 82.5
For explanatory notes see page 12.
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NCVER 10
Terms
Information contained in this publication is, unless stated
otherwise, derived from the National VET Provider Collection, which
is compiled under the Australian Vocational Education and Training
Management Information and Statistical Standard (AVETMISS). For
further information go to .
For other terms and definitions, refer to the terms and
definitions paper at .
Accredited qualifications refer to nationally recognised courses
that lead to a qualification outcome not specified in a national
training package.
Australian Qualifications Framework (AQF) is a nationally
consistent framework of credentials offered in post-compulsory
education and training that covers qualifications from certificate
I through to a doctoral degree. For more details on the AQF, see
.
Commonwealth and state funding is expenditure by the
Commonwealth or state/territory governments for the delivery of
vocational education and training.
Community education providers are not-for-profit,
community-based organisations with a primary focus on adult
education. Community-based adult education providers deliver
courses relating to leisure, personal and community development,
employment skills, preparation for VET and nationally recognised
programs of study.
Domestic fee-for-service funding is the revenue provided by a
student whose citizenship status is Australian, New Zealand or
permanent resident for the purpose of undertaking education and
training.
Enrolment (program/subject) is the registration of a student for
the purpose of undertaking a program or subject.
Enterprise providers are registered training organisations whose
primary business is not the delivery of training and
development.
Field of education describes the broad area of study related to
a program or subject in which a student is enrolled.
Full-time students are students whose program of study
constitutes at least 75% of the normal full-time study load. The
former Department of Education, Employment and Workplace Relations
(DEEWR) previously defined a full-time study load as 720 contact
hours in a year. Therefore, any student undertaking 540 hours or
more is regarded as a full-time student.
Full year training equivalent (FYTE) measures the training
activity undertaken by a student on a full-time basis for one
year.
Funding source refers to the predominant source of the funding
for a subject enrolment.
Government funding relates to Commonwealth and state/territory
funded activity delivered by registered training organisations
(RTOs).
International fee-for-service funding is the revenue provided by
a student who holds a student visa, or a temporary residency permit
or who resides in an overseas country for the purpose of
undertaking education and training.
Level of education in the VET sector refers to the Australian
Qualifications Framework (AQF) levels of education from certificate
I through to graduate diploma.
Nationally recognised programs include training package
qualifications, accredited qualifications, training package skill
sets and accredited courses that are listed on the National
Training Register (training.gov.au).
https://www.ncver.edu.au/research-and-statistics/collections/students-and-courses-collection/total-vet-students-and-courseshttps://www.ncver.edu.au/research-and-statistics/collections/students-and-courses-collection/total-vet-students-and-courseshttp://www.aqf.edu.au/
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VET qualification completion rates 2018 11
Nationally recognised training (NRT) leads to vocational
qualifications and credentials that are recognised across Australia
delivered by registered training organisations (RTOs). Nationally
recognised training is listed on the National Training Register
(training.gov.au).
Private training providers refer to privately-owned and operated
training providers that are registered by the Australian Skills
Quality Authority, or a state/territory accrediting body.
Provider type refers to the type of institution or organisation
providing the training.
Projected qualification completion rate is the percentage of
qualifications that are estimated to be completed, according to
statistical modelling developed by NCVER.
Qualifications in the VET sector refer to the Australian
Qualifications Framework (AQF) levels of education from certificate
I through to graduate diploma.
Qualification enrolment is the registration of a student at a
training organisation for the purpose of undertaking a module, unit
of competency or subject, which leads to or is part of a recognised
qualification.
Registered training organisations (RTOs) are training providers
registered by the Australian Skills Quality Authority (ASQA) or, in
some cases, a state or territory registering and accrediting body,
to deliver training and/or conduct assessment and issue nationally
recognised qualifications in accordance with the Australian Quality
Training Framework or the VET Quality Framework.
Schools are established or recognised under an Act of parliament
for the purpose of providing courses of instruction in preschool,
primary or secondary education.
State/territory of delivery location is the state or territory
relating to the specific training location where the activity was
delivered. For online delivery it must be the location from which
the training delivery is coordinated.
Students are individuals who were enrolled in a stand-alone
subject and/or program during the reporting period.
Subject load pass rate is a calculation of the proportion of
subjects that were successfully completed, measured in hours.
Subject result refers to the result that is recorded against a
student's subject enrolment for that reporting period.
Total VET activity (TVA) all nationally recognised training
(incorporating both government-funded and fee-for-service activity)
delivered by registered training providers.
Training packages are developed by Service Skills Organisations
(formerly by Industry Skills Councils) to meet the training needs
of an industry, or a group of industries. Each training package is
made up of three components; units of competency, qualifications
framework levels of education and assessment guidelines. For
further information refer to .
Training package qualifications are nationally endorsed
qualifications specified in a national training package.
Training providers are organisations that deliver VET
qualifications. Training providers include private training
providers, schools, community education providers, enterprise
providers, TAFE institutes and universities.
Unique student identifier (USI) uniquely identifies an
individual who accesses vocational education and training over his
or her lifetime.
Universities include Australia’s universities, which have been
established or recognised under state or territory legislation,
except the Australian National University, which is constituted
under an Act of the Australian Parliament.
Vocational education and training (VET) is post-compulsory
education and training that provides people with occupational or
work-related knowledge and skills.
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NCVER 12
Explanatory notes
Scope 1 Activity covered in this publication includes nationally
recognised VET delivered by registered
training organisations (RTOs):
• TAFE institutes
• universities
• community education providers • enterprise providers
• private training providers
• schools • Australian training providers delivering VET at
overseas campuses.
2 This publication does not cover the following types of
training: • non-nationally recognised training
• credit transfer
• superseded training (reported with national outcome identifier
'61 - superseded training') • any activity where revenue was earned
from another training provider in terms of sub-contracting,
auspicing, partnership or similar arrangements.
Data sources 3 The information contained in this publication is,
unless otherwise stated, derived from the National
VET Provider Collection and the National VET in Schools
Collection. For the National VET Provider Collection, data can be
reported to NCVER directly by the training providers or via state
training authorities. For the National VET in Schools Collection,
data are reported directly by the boards of studies and via the
state training authorities to NCVER. These collections are compiled
under the Australian Vocational Education and Training Management
Information Statistical Standard (AVETMISS). For further
information on AVETMISS, see .
4 The National VET Provider and National VET in Schools
collections collect enrolment and completion details of VET
students and their qualifications. While these national databases
are essentially cross-sectional by year, there is enough
information to match data over a number of years for individual VET
students and the qualifications they undertake. Obtaining such a
longitudinal dataset allows the use of mathematical techniques that
rely on conditional probabilities to then calculate projected
completion rates.
Completion rates methodology 5 A VET qualification completion
rate is simply defined as the proportion of VET qualifications
that
commenced in a given year that are eventually completed. It
requires knowledge about when a student commences a qualification
and, ultimately, when a student exits (such as successfully
completing or discontinuing). Unfortunately, the time taken for a
student to exit a VET qualification varies, in line with factors
such as Australian Qualification Framework (AQF) level and mode of
study. Consequently, for any given cohort of commencing students,
there is a natural time lag before qualifications are completed
and, consequently, a completion rate becomes ‘final’ (reported here
as Observed actual).
6 A further problem is that there is a delay in reporting
completions, meaning that completions occurring in a given year
might take a year or more to be reported. Not surprisingly, the
longer we wait, the more accurate the completion rate becomes,
although, as time goes by, the data become
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VET qualification completion rates 2018 13
less relevant, making the information less useful for
performance evaluation. While the direct approach of tracking
qualifications from start to finish is adequate for tracking
historic observed actual rates of completion, the need remains to
derive projected completion rates for the most recent years.
7 To overcome this issue, NCVER has developed a methodology for
calculating projected qualification completion rates using a
longitudinal dataset in which data for an individual student at a
given RTO are linked from commencement to completion (outlined in
The likelihood of completing a VET qualification: a model-based
approach, available at ). This approach uses information about
qualification enrolments over a three-year window (centred on the
year of interest), together with the theory of absorbing Markov
chains to derive the probability that a commencing VET
qualification enrolment will eventually be completed.
8 The advantage of Markov chain theory is that the probability
of an entity ‘transitioning’ from one status to another in
successive time periods is not dependent on past transitions. This
means we can use knowledge of the ‘status’ of qualification
enrolments across successive years to predict the qualification
completion rate without having the full history of all
qualification enrolments. Another advantage of the methodology is
that it can be readily applied to subsets of the data based on
student demographics or attributes of the training. However, our
methodology means that projected completion rates, particularly for
the latest year of activity, are likely to be overstated due to the
high proportion of continuing students in the forecast
calculations.
9 In the Markov chain formula, qualifications can belong to one
of four states in a given year: • commenced
• continuing, that is they commenced in the previous year and
have an enrolment in the current year
• completed, that is we have a record of their completion •
discontinued, that is they had an enrolment in the previous year
but in the current year have
neither an enrolment nor a completion recorded.
10 Using our assumption that qualifications will be completed
within four years, we look at qualifications’ progression through
these four states. At the end of four years, we assume all
qualifications that were not completed were discontinued such that
every qualification reaches a “final” state (figure 3). The
proportion of students who reach the “completed” state form the
basis of our observed actual completion rates. For years where we
do not yet have data, we predict students’ transition through the
different states based on calculated probabilities and use this as
the basis of projected completion rates.
Figure 3 Definition of the states of a VET qualification in the
model used to calculate VET qualification completion rates
*At the end of four years, we assume all qualifications that
were not completed were discontinued, such that every qualification
reaches a “final” state.
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NCVER 14
11 Projected completion rates for VET qualifications commencing
in the most recent years, particularly those commencing in 2018,
are overstated due to the methodology used to calculated completion
rates. As time passes, projections come closer to actuals as more
records reach their final state of “completed” or
“discontinued”.
12 Further explanation of qualification completion rates,
including recent methodological reviews can be found in the
technical paper VET qualification completion rates: an evaluation
of the current method (available at
https://www.ncver.edu.au/research-and-statistics/publications/all-publications/vet-qualification-completion-rates-an-evaluation-of-the-current-method)
and Total VET qualification completion rates (available at ). The
methodology used is regularly reviewed and improved.
13 Completion rates are calculated using the USI or other
student and RTO attributes to link data for an individual student
at a given RTO from commencement to completion. This means that
when RTOs merge and their identifiers change, student enrolments
cannot be matched to completions, leading to lower than expected
completion rates. This publication takes account of two major TAFE
structural changes:
• the 2019 TAFE New South Wales consolidation of 11 TAFE
institutes into a single entity • the 2016 Western Australian TAFE
restructure. The bulk of student movements in Western
Australia have been accounted for, but as the restructure
involved movements between campuses, completion rates may be
under-reported. NCVER is working with the Western Australian
Department of Training and Workforce Development on further
improvements to the methodology for future years’ publications.
Subject load pass rates methodology 14 Subject load pass rate is
the ratio of hours (or full year training equivalent — FYTE)
attributed to
students who gained competencies/passed assessment in an
assessable module or unit of competency to all students who were
assessed and either passed, failed or withdrew. The calculation is
based on the annual hours (or FYTEs) for each assessable module or
unit of competency and includes competencies achieved/units passed
through recognition of prior learning. The subject load pass rate
is calculated using the following formula based on national outcome
codes:
(20 (Competency achieved/pass) + 51 (Recognition of prior
learning - granted)) x100 (20 (Competency achieved/pass) + 51
(Recognition of prior learning - granted) + 30 (Competency not
achieved/fail) + 40 (Withdrawn) + 41 (Incomplete due to RTO
closure))
15 Further explanation of subject load pass rates, including
definition and methodology, can be found in the occasional paper
Lifting the lid on completion rates in the VET sector: how they are
defined and derived, available at .
https://www.ncver.edu.au/research-and-statistics/publications/all-publications/vet-qualification-completion-rates-an-evaluation-of-the-current-methodhttps://www.ncver.edu.au/research-and-statistics/publications/all-publications/vet-qualification-completion-rates-an-evaluation-of-the-current-method
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ContentsIntroductionSummaryTablesTermsExplanatory notes