Courtesy Translation in English Provided by the Translation Services of the European Commission National Air Pollution Control Programme of the Federal Republic of Germany in accordance with Article 6 and Article 10 of Directive (EU) 2016/2284 on the reduction of national emissions of certain atmospheric pollutants and in accordance with Sections 4 and 16 of the Ordinance on national commitments for reduction of certain atmospheric pollutions (43rd Federal Emissions Control Ordinance (BImSchV))
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Courtesy Translation in English Provided by the Translation Services of the European Commission
National Air Pollution Control Programme
of the Federal Republic of Germany
in accordance with Article 6 and Article 10 of Directive (EU) 2016/2284 on the reduction of
national emissions of certain atmospheric pollutants
and
in accordance with Sections 4 and 16 of the Ordinance on national commitments for
reduction of certain atmospheric pollutions (43rd Federal Emissions Control Ordinance
(BImSchV))
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Title of the programme National Air Pollution Control Programme
Date 22 May 2019 (Cabinet resolution)
Member State Germany
Name of competent authority responsible for drawing up
the programme
Federal Ministry for the Environment, Nature Conservation and
Nuclear Safety (BMU), Working Group IG I 2
Telephone number of responsible service +49 30 18 305-2430/2434
Table of contents List of figures 5 List of tables 7 List of abbreviations 9
Foreword 10
1 Introduction 11 1.1 National emission reduction commitments - a tool to improve air quality and to reduce
pressure on ecosystems 11 1.1.1 Atmospheric pollutants 11 1.1.2 Emission reduction commitments 12 1.1.3 Scenarios, strategies and measures 13 1.1.3.1 Definitions 13 1.1.3.2 Methodology 15 1.1.4 Significance to air quality 17
2 Political framework for air quality and air pollution control 19 2.1 Policy priorities and their relationship to priorities set in other relevant policy areas 19 2.2 Responsibilities attributed to national, regional and local authorities 20
3 Progress made by current policies and measures in reducing emissions and improving air quality; extent of compliance with national and EU commitments, in relation to the year 2005 21
3.1 Emissions development from 2005 to 2016 in accordance with emissions reporting for 2018, compliance with national and EU regulations 21
3.1.1 Emissions development from 2005 to 2016 in accordance with emissions reporting for 2018 21
3.1.1.1 Development of emissions - overview 21 3.1.1.2 Development of SO2 emissions 2005 – 2016 25 3.1.1.3 Development of NOX emissions 2005 – 2016 26 3.1.1.4 Development of NMVOC emissions 2005 – 2016 29 3.1.1.5 Development of NH3 emissions 2005 – 2016 33 3.1.1.6 Development of PM2.5 emissions 2005 – 2016 35 3.1.2 Compliance with the emission reduction commitments in force 37 3.2 Development of ambient air quality 2005 -2016 39 3.2.1 Development of ambient air quality 2005 -2016 - compliance with national and EU
regulations 39 3.2.1.1 Methodology for assessment for development of air quality 39 3.2.1.2 Development of NO2 concentrations 40 3.2.1.3 NO2 exceedance situations 42 3.2.1.4 Development of PM10 concentrations 45 3.2.1.5 PM10 exceedance situations 47 3.2.1.6 Development of PM2.5 concentrations 50 3.2.1.7 Development of O3 concentrations 52 3.2.1.8 O3 exceedance situations 55 3.2.1.9 CO exceedance situations 57 3.2.1.10 SO2 exceedance situations 58 3.2.2 Development of ambient air quality 2005 -2015 – results of dispersion modelling 58 3.2.2.1 Methodology 58 3.2.2.2 Modelled background NO2 concentrations 59 3.2.2.3 Modelled background SO2 concentrations 60 3.2.2.4 Modelled background NH3 concentrations 61 3.2.2.5 Modelled background PM2.5 concentrations 62 3.2.2.6 Modelled background O3 concentrations 63 3.2.2.7 Summary of results of dispersion modelling 65 3.3 Assessment of the development of cross-border transport of atmospheric pollutants
from and to Germany 66
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4 Projected further evolution assuming no change to strategies and measures already adopted 67
4.1 Emission projection to 2030 and assessment of emission reduction in comparison to 2005 in the With Measures Scenario (WM) 67
4.1.1 With Measures Scenario (WM) 67 4.1.1.1 Development in rates of activity - general 67 4.1.1.2 Further trend projections - air pollution control 69 4.1.2 Emission projection to 2030 in the With Measures Scenario (WM) 72 4.1.3 Description of the uncertainties linked to the emission projection in the With
Measures Scenario (WM) 79 4.2 Description of the projected improvement in air quality in the With Measures Scenario
5 Options for strategies and measures for complying with emission reduction commitments from 2020 and from 2030 and indicative interim targets from 2025 88
5.1 Further options for action for climate protection 88 5.2 Further options for action - NOX 90 5.3 Further options for action - NMVOC 91 5.4 further options for action - SO2 92 5.5 Further options for action - PM2.5 93 5.6 Further options for action - NH3 93 5.7 Reduction potential of further options of action 97 5.8 Further information for measures in the field of agriculture 98
6 Strategies and measures (including timetable for adopting measures, implementation and success monitoring and competent agency) 99
6.1 Report on the strategies and measures selected for implementation (including competent agency) 99
6.2 Assessment of consistency with plans and programmes in other policy fields 99
7 Report on emission projection, development of air quality and on the impact on the environment in the NEC compliance scenario for meeting reduction commitments (WAM - With Additional Measures) 101
7.1 Emission projection to 2030 and assessment of emission reduction in comparison to 2005 in the NEC Compliance Scenario (WAM) 101
7.2 Description of the uncertainties linked to the WAM projection 107 7.3 Description of the projected improvement in air quality in the NEC Compliance Scenario
(WAM) 109 7.4 Projected impact on the environment in the NEC Compliance Scenario (WAM) 115
8 References 116
Annexes 117 A Annex - Emission sources according to Nomenclature for Reporting (NFR) 117 B Annexes– Emissions data relating to Chapter 3.1.1 121
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List of figures
Image 1: Emissions development of SO2, NOX, NMVOC, NH3 and PM2.5 from 1990 to 2016 ..... 22
Image 2: Emissions of SO2, NOX, NMVOC, NH3 and PM2.5 from 2005 to 2016 (Source:
Emissions reporting for 2018) ...................................................................................... 23
Image 3: Development of SO2 emissions from 2005-2016 in Germany...................................... 25
Image 4: Development of NOX emissions from 2005-2016 in Germany ..................................... 26
Image 5: NOX emissions from transport 2005-2016 in Germany ................................................ 28
Image 6: Development of NMVOC emissions from 2005-2016 in Germany .............................. 30
Image 7: NMVOC emissions from transport 2005-2016 in Germany ......................................... 31
Image 8: Development of NH3 emissions from 2005-2016 in Germany ..................................... 34
Image 9: Development of PM2.5 emissions from 2005-2016 in Germany ................................... 35
Image 10: PM2.5 emissions from transport 2005-2016 in Germany .............................................. 36
Image 11: Development of the annual average of measured NO2 concentrations ...................... 41
Image 12: Modelled concentration maps for development of the annual average of
measured NO2 concentrations with point information of measured values from
stations close to traffic ................................................................................................. 42
Image 13: Representation of the development of exceedance situations for NO2 according
to assessment areas (average annual value) ................................................................ 43
Image 14: Representation of the development of exceedance situations for NO2 according
to assessment areas (average hourly value) ................................................................ 45
Image 15: Development of the annual average of measured PM10 concentrations ..................... 46
Image 16: Modelled concentration maps for development of the annual average of
measured PM10 concentrations with point information of measured values from
stations close to traffic and to industry ........................................................................ 47
Image 17: Representation of the development of exceedance situations for PM10 according
to assessment areas (average annual value) ................................................................ 48
Image 18: Representation of the Average Exposure Indicator (AEI) for PM2.5 since 2010 ............ 51
Image 19: Development of the highest daily and hourly eight-hour averages for O3 .................. 53
Image 20: Development of the three-year average of the highest daily eight-hour average
for O3 ............................................................................................................................ 54
Image 21: Modelled concentration maps for development of the three-year average of
An activity rate might for example be fuel consumption indicated in terajoules [TJ], or a number
of animals given in units [U] or else a quantity of product used in kilograms [kg]. The
corresponding emission factors result either directly from the measurement results or they have
to be calculated from the measurement results, for example per waste gas volume and time for
precise or average conversion factors. If no continuous measurements take place, emission
factors can also be obtained from individual measurements, modelling, calculation or estimation
by experts on the basis of qualified assumptions.
In the emission inventory database ‘Zentral System Emissionen’ [Central System
Emissions] (ZSE), national emission totals per year for selected atmospheric pollutants are
recorded and presented along with greenhouse gases at the Federal Environment Agency, in time
series from 1990. At yearly intervals, these time series are regularly updated to the year two
years prior to the current reporting year and are also updated for all past years in accordance
with additional findings. It can thus happen that, for example, emissions for the year 2005 in the
emissions reporting for 2012 differ substantially from those given in the emissions reporting for
2018. These recalculations and the reasons for them are illustrated in the Informative Inventory
Reports (e.g. IIR 20187) always with reference to the previous report.
A decisive factor in determining the level of detail of a time series and the quality and
uncertainty of the values contained therein are the depth of detail and the quality of the input
data used. In several source groups, such as for example agriculture or road transport, the ZSE
time series solution is aggregated externally from very detailed models for calculating emissions
or for calculating material flows.
In addition to the emission inventory database of the Federal Environment Agency, an ‘emission
reduction measures’ database (EMMa) with an identical level of detail has been set up in order to
project the time series in the report taking into account the potential impact of strategies and
measures in the future. Detailed information is available from the Federal Environment Agency.
Basically, EMMa predicts the development of inventorised emissions. The aim of the inventory
reporting by means of ZSE is to indicate the actual emissions by combined emission sources
across a time series. Thus, within combustion plants that use the same fuel, there might be
installations which clearly fall below the applicable limits and other installations which due to
exemptions or transitional periods may emit above a limit. In conclusion, there is often an
implicit emission factor deviating from an existing limit averaged over all emission sources
across a time series. Similarly, when updating emissions in EMMa, compliance with the limit in
7 https://iir-de.wikidot.com/; retrieved on 25.06.2018
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force in 2020, 2025 and 2030 and assumed to be in force in the future, taking into account
exemptions or transitional periods insofar as is possible, is fundamentally assumed, and the
implied emission factor for a time series is derived from these assumptions. Sometimes, complex
external models are used for this purpose, to quantify the effects of measures. The emissions to
be reported in accordance with the ZSE methodology in 2032 retrospectively for 2030 may
deviate from the projected emissions. Reasons for this may be, for example, real emission
sources exceeding the limits in force or exemptions and transitional periods differing from
assumptions.
Different data sources have been used to update the time series for the years 2020, 2025 and
2030. Projections of the impact of current policies were made available in 2018
for the agricultural sector by the Johann Heinrich von Thu nen Institute, Federal
Research Institute for Rural Areas, Forestry and Fisheries (TI) (Thu nen Report 56,
2018),
for the transport sector by the Institute for Energy and Environmental Research,
Heidelberg (Institut fu r Energie- und Umweltforschung, (ifeu)) (TREMOD Version 5.72,
UBA, 2017) taking into account the current emission factors for diesel cars in the
Handbook of Emission Factors for Road Transport (Handbuch Emissionsfaktoren fu r
den Straßenverkehr (HBEFA)) Version 3.38 and
for the solvent application sector by the Institut fu r O kologie und Politik GmbH (O kopol)
as part of the report ‘Updating of the German Emission Inventory for NMVOC from
solvents for the reporting year 2013 and 2014’ (Project number 56982) and ‘Reduction
measures for NMVOC emissions from solvents in Germany’ (Project number 56071) on
behalf of the Federal Environment Agency9
Further reference projections and predicted effects of measures have been extracted from
research projects completed on behalf of the Federal Environment Agency, e.g. ‘Defining and
updating emissions factors for the national emissions inventory in relation to small and medium-
sized combustion units used by households and small consumers’ (PCN 3712423132) and
‘Improving the methodological foundations and creating greenhouse gas emissions scenarios as
a basis for the Projection Report 2017 as part of EU greenhouse gas monitoring (Policy scenarios
VIII)’ (PCN 3716411050) or developed in ongoing research projects on behalf of the Federal
Environment Agency, e.g. ‘NEC Directive: Further development of the projections for
atmospheric pollutants for National Air Pollution Control Programmes (PCN 3716512020) and
‘Additional investigations for creating emission scenarios for implementing the NEC Directive ‘
(PCN 3718512420).
The EMMa database was used, building on reference projections, to record and illustrate the
further effects of strategies and measures in the most differentiated manner possible. In this way
it is possible, from the combination of reference projections and the effect of measures or
combination of measures, to create packages of measures which correspond to the conditions of
the respective scenario and to calculate their effect on emissions development.
The database offers a high level of transparency of assumptions and results. Sometimes, reliance
on the ZSE structure can however lead to huge difficulties in illustrating the reduction effect of
8 http://www.hbefa.net/d/documents/HBEFA33_Hintergrundbericht.pdf; retrieved on 10/07/2018 9 The publication of a joint final report is being prepared. A detailed description of the methodology can be found in
the final report ‘Emission data for volatile organic compounds resulting from solvent use - method evaluation, data
collection and projections’ (PCN 20143306). https://www.umweltbundesamt.de/publikationen/emissionsdaten-
individual measures, for example if these affect only some of the emission sources included in a
time series or if there is not sufficient information concerning the distribution of input data such
as for example use of fuel, operating hours or thermal input. These difficulties still lead today, in
individual cases, to uncertainties in the assessment of reduction potentials of individual
measures on the basis of EMMa, which might however be steadily reduced in the medium- and
long-term by improving the data situation and adapting the time series system.
1.1.4 Significance to air quality
Predicting the significance of reducing emissions to the development of air quality is the subject
of complex research. As air quality in a certain place is influenced significantly by macro-, meso-
and micro-scale meteorological and site conditions, effects of emission reduction are not
apparent immediately and everywhere from the atmospheric pollutant concentrations
measured. Additionally, the atmospheric pollution in one location comes from numerous
emission sources. There is a rough differentiation between trans-regional or background
pollution, which sometimes contains atmospheric pollutants transported over very large
distances to the point of impact, and local additional pollution, where atmospheric pollution is
heavily determined by local emission sources in addition to background pollution. The local
additional pollution has much stronger spatial and temporal variability in comparison to the
background pollution.
In order to estimate the long-term influence of national emission reduction measures on air
quality, ‘chemistry transport models’ have been established, which deliver conclusive results
corresponding to the resolution of the input data sets up to a maximum of 1 x 1 km² model
resolution. Modelling of background concentrations is possible up to this resolution. Should the
concentrations of atmospheric pollutants be modelled with higher spatial resolution, input data
sets with much higher resolution will also be necessary to also depict the local additional
pollution. This modelling is generally only used on a small scale for local air pollution control
planning. Firstly, such high-resolution, Germany-wide modelling would require enormous
calculation and storage capacity, secondly, corresponding input data sets are sometimes not
available.
Due to the sometimes very extensive transport of atmospheric pollutants, local emissions and
emission reduction measures also account for a share of the background pollution in other
places, and national or EU-wide emission reduction measures, which impact on a group of
emission sources, also naturally have an effect on local additional pollution in close range of the
source. This effect within close range of the source of national reduction measures on additional
pollution is not generally mapped by Germany-wide modelling with appropriate resolution; the
effect of such measures on local air quality is therefore generally underestimated. Irrespective of
the effect of national emission reductions on the local additional pollution in the air, their effect
on background pollution can be conclusively estimated using the existing chemistry transport
models if all other conditions remain the same.
The results of dispersion modelling to estimate the impact of recent emissions development
from 2005 to 2015 on air quality is illustrated in Chapter 3.2.2. The impact of projected
emissions development on background pollution in the With Measures scenario (WM) and the
NEC Compliance scenario (WAM) is illustrated in Chapters 4.2 and 7.3. The model runs
conducted for these comparisons have been calculated using the 2005 meteorology (data source:
WRF - Weather Research & Forecasting Model), in order to assess the impact of recent and
projected emissions development without the influence of interannual meteorological variations.
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2 Political framework for air quality and air pollution control
2.1 Policy priorities and their relationship to priorities set in other relevant policy areas
Table 2: Policy targets in the field of air pollution control and air quality and categorisation in relation to targets in other policy areas
National emission reduction commitments compared with 2005 base year (in %)
SO2 NOX NMVOCs NH3 PM2.5
2020–2029 –21 % –39 % –13 % –5% –26%
from 2030 –58 % –65 % –28 % –29 % –43 %
Air quality priorities: national policy priorities related to EU or national air quality objectives (including limit and target values and exposure concentration obligations)
The goal is to significantly further reduce emissions of atmospheric pollutants and air pollution in Germany. For particulate matter pollution, almost complete limit adherence has already been achieved. The focus is thus now directed at air pollution by nitrogen oxide, which in many urban areas is still too high. The aim of the measures introduced by the German government and by the competent authorities in the German states is to adhere to the annual limit for nitrogen dioxide as quickly as possible.
Relevant climate change and energy policy priorities The aim of the German government’s climate policies is to reduce emissions of greenhouse gases by at least 55 % in comparison with the level in 1990 by the year 2030. In terms of international climate protection, Germany is committed to an ambitious and effective implementation of the Paris Agreement.
Integrated nitrogen reduction On the basis of the German government’s first Nitrogen Report10, the BMU is preparing a national action programme for integrated nitrogen reduction.
Emission-related priorities in other policy areas Industry / Agriculture: TA Luft Agriculture: the law relating to fertilisers, farming strategy, livestock strategy Industry: Phasing out of coal-fired electricity Transport: Hardware retrofitting for diesel buses, trade and delivery vehicles and heavy-duty municipal vehicles
Federal Environment Agency – Reporting to the European Commission –Departmental research as a basis for preparing draft laws and ordinances
Thünen institute – Calculating agricultural emissions of ammonia, NOX, NMVOC and particulate matter for reporting to the Federal Environmental Agency
Federal state Chief emission control authorities for the German states, higher state authorities, intermediate state authorities, lower state authorities
– state-based policy-making roles – involvement in federal legislation in the field of emission control law – state-based emission control legislation – enforcement of emission control law (inter alia monitoring of air quality and air pollution control planning)
Towns and municipalities
Enforcement of emission control law
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3 Progress made by current policies and measures in reducing emissions and improving air quality; extent of compliance with national and EU commitments, in relation to the year 2005
3.1 Emissions development from 2005 to 2016 in accordance with emissions reporting for 2018, compliance with national and EU regulations
3.1.1 Emissions development from 2005 to 2016 in accordance with emissions reporting for 2018
3.1.1.1 Development of emissions - overview
Anthropogenic emissions of atmospheric pollutants subject to reduction commitments from
2020 under the NEC Directive have already dropped considerably since 1990, with the exception
of NH3 emissions (cf. Image 1).
However, negative impacts on and risks to human health and the environment remain significant
(NEC Directive, Recital 1). The emissions development in the past 10 to 15 years shows that in
many source groups highly technical reduction potentials have already been implemented and in
Germany, with steady or increasing activity rates, it is becoming increasingly demanding and
costly to effect emission reductions with the aid of process or system-integrated reduction
measures.
Under the new NEC Directive, the EU Member States are committed to reducing emissions of SO2,
NOX, NMVOC, NH3 and PM2.5 from 2020 onwards. The reductions are determined as a percentage
decrease in comparison with the emissions in the base year 2005. Firstly, the recent emissions
developments in Germany since 2005 are shown below (cf. Image 2) and the effectiveness of
strategies and measures used is quantified. The emission data shown in the image from the
emissions reporting for 2018 were reported to the European Commission in February 2018 and
are publicly available on the websites of the European Environment Agency under the following
NMVOC aus verdunstetem Kraftsoff NMVOC from evaporated fuels
The NMVOC emissions from industrial processes were reduced by almost 166 kt in the period
from 2005 to 2016. This decrease is almost 100 % due to the drop in emissions from solvent and
product applications. Rules for limiting NMVOC emissions from product applications on EU level
are
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a) the Solvent Emissions Directive 1999/13/EC17 (also known as the VOC Directive), which
was incorporated into the IED Directive 2010/75/EU18 in 2010, and
b) The so-called DECOPAINT Directive 2004/42/EC19.
The IED Directive covers certain kinds of installation in relation to product applications (inter
alia coating installations, printing installations, surface cleaning installations, textile cleaning
installations, rubber conversion installations and installations for producing coating substances,
adhesives, printing inks and pharmaceuticals), in which organic solvents are used and the annual
solvent consumption exceeds specific limits. The regulations on product applications from the
IED Directive are transposed into German law by means of the 31st BImSchV20 and the 2nd
BImSchV21. The TA Luft22 of 24 July 2002 also establishes NMVOC emission limits for individual
installations which are subject to approval.
The DECOPAINT Directive gradually limits the solvent content in certain paints, varnishes and
coating materials (Phase I since 1 January 2007, Phase II since 1 January 2010). The DECOPAINT
Directive comprises only the coating of fixed construction products (e.g. doors, windows, steps,
heating elements). Items such as furniture, which are not permanently attached to a building ,
are excluded from the application of the directive. This directive was transposed into German
law with the Solvent-based Paints and Varnishes Ordinance23. In the use of paints and varnishes,
emissions could be reduced primarily through the limits set out in the DECOPAINT directive for
solvent content in paints, varnishes and other coating materials. The German eco label ‘Blue
Angel’ supported this development by labelling products with a low solvent content.
Reductions in NMVOC emissions are also reported in the printing industry. These reductions are
due primarily to a reduced use of isopropanol as an additive for moistening agents in printing
applications. In addition, changing technologies (i.e. less book printing, more digital printing)
impact upon the emissions of this source group.
Regarding private use of solvent-based products, emissions from several product groups (e.g. use
of deodorants) has fallen, in other areas however NMVOC emissions have increased (e.g. in the
use of hair spray and in pharmaceutical products), so that the emissions from this source sub-
group increased overall in the period from 2005 to 2016.
Fugitive emissions from fuel were reduced by almost 14 kt in the period from 2005 to 2016
through the introduction of limits in the Ordinance on Limiting Emissions of Volatile Organic
Compounds for siphoning and storing of petrol, fuel mixtures or petroleum24 (20th BImSchV)
17 https://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/EN/TXT/PDF/?uri=CELEX:31999L0013&from=EN; retrieved on
26/06/2018 18 http://eur-lex.europa.eu/LexUriServ/LexUriServ.do?uri=OJ:L:2010:334:0017:0119:en:PDF; retrieved on
26/06/2018 19 https://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/EN/TXT/PDF/?uri=CELEX:32004L0042&from=DE; retrieved on
26/06/2018 20 31st Ordinance for implementation of the Federal Emissions Control Act (Ordinance on limiting emissions of
volatile organic compounds in the use of organic solvents in certain installations - 31st BImSchV) 21 Second Ordinance for implementation of the Federal Emissions Control Act (Ordinance on limiting emissions of
volatile halogenated organic compounds - 2nd BImSchV) 22 First General Administrative Regulation of the Federal Emissions Control Act, Technical Instructions on Air Quality
Control - TA Luft 23 Chemical-legal Ordinance on Limiting Emissions of Volatile Organic Compounds (VOC) through restrictions on
marketing of solvent-based paints and varnishes (Solvent-based Paints and Varnishes Ordinance - ChemVOCFarbV) 24 20th Ordinance for Implementation of the Federal Emissions Control Act (Ordinance on Limiting Emissions of
Volatile Organic Compounds in the Siphoning and Storing of Petrol, Fuel Mixtures or Petroleum - 20th BImSchV)
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and the Ordinance for Limiting Hydrocarbon Emissions during the Fuelling of Motor Vehicles25
(21st BImSchV). Clear reductions in NMVOC emissions were achieved in particular through
equipping of petrol stations with gas displacement and gas vapour recovery systems.
NMVOC emissions from small combustion plants (households and small consumers) were
reduced by over 8 kt in the period from 2005 to 2016. This emissions reduction is a side effect of
the Ordinance on Small and Medium-Sized Combustion Plants (1st BImSchV)26. NMVOC
emissions are also reduced through optimisation of fuel combustion activities for dust reduction.
NMVOC emissions from agriculture, by contrast, have remained largely constant at around 204
kt, agricultural NMVOC emissions come predominantly from fertiliser management (primarily
from cattle farming) and to a lesser extent from cereal production. Reductions are not
mandatory for NMVOC emissions from agriculture, in compliance with the permissible emissions
ceiling according to both the old NEC directive 2001/81/EC27 (in force until 31 December 2019)
and also pursuant to the newer NEC Directive.
3.1.1.5 Development of NH3 emissions 2005 – 2016
NH3 emissions originated from agriculture in around 93 % of cases in 2005 and in around 95 %
of cases in 2016. Over half (2005: 310 kt, 2016: 361 kt) of agricultural ammonia emissions come
from the spreading of organic fertilisers, including pasturage, mineral fertilisers and
fermentation residues. The remaining emissions are primarily emissions from stabling and
storing of agricultural fertiliser in animal husbandry. Another NH3 source is transport, with a
share of 4 % of total NH3 emissions in the year 2005 and of 2 % in the year 2016, predominantly
petrol cars, in which ammonia is formed as a by-product in three-way catalytic converters. By
contrast, diesel engines emit less NH3 than petrol engines due to the higher air surplus.
Ammonia is also released in industrial processes (share of NH3 emissions from industrial
processes, of the total NH3 emissions: 2005: 2 %, 2016: 2 %), primarily in the production of
fertiliser, ammonia and nitric acid and in the use of coolants.
In the time period 2005 - 2016, total German ammonia emissions increased by around 6 %,
which corresponds to over 37 kt per year. This increase is primarily due to the increase in
spreading residues from the fermentation of energy crops in biogas installations. As regards the
spreading of mineral fertilisers, the increasing proportion of urea, with a comparatively high
emission factor, is responsible for increasing emissions.
A clear increase is reported in poultry numbers. In addition, the number of pigs rose slightly in
the time period from 2005 to 2016. The number of dairy cows, other cattle and sheep, goats and
horses fell, however. In total, ammonia emissions from stabling and storing has fallen slightly (a
reduction of almost 5 kt).
In the transport sector, a reduction of ammonia emissions by almost 10 kt is reported. This
decrease was achieved by means of the technical optimisation of catalytic converters in petrol
vehicles. The temporary increase in the proportion of diesel vehicles in the total number of
vehicles also led to a drop in the NH3 emissions from transport.
25 21st Ordinance for Implementation of the Federal Emissions Control Act (Ordinance for Limiting Hydrocarbon
Emissions during the Fuelling of Motor Vehicles– 21st BImSchV) 26 First Ordinance for Implementation of the Federal Emissions Control Act (Ordinance on Small and Medium-sized
Combustion Plants– 1st BImSchV) 27 https://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/EN/TXT/PDF/?uri=CELEX:32001L0081&from=DE; retrieved on
26.06.2018
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Emissions from storage and spreading of fermentation residues from the cultivation of energy
crops are recorded and reported in the Emissions Inventory. As these emission sources were not
yet recorded in the inventory when the emission ceilings were set in the old NEC Directive
2001/81/EG28, however, their NH3 emissions have to be deducted from the reported national
emissions total in the so-called ‘National Total for Compliance’29. This is also the case for the
national reduction commitment of the new NEC Directive for 2020, but not for the national
reduction commitment for 2030 (cf. IIR, 2018).
Image 8: Development of NH3 emissions from 2005-2016 in Germany
Source Target
NH3-Emissionen von 2005-2016 in Deutschland NH3 emissions from 2005-2016 in Germany
Emissionen in kt/a Emissions in Kt/a
Energiewirtschaft Energy industries
Haushalte und Kleinverbraucher Households and small consumers
Tierhaltung (Stall und Lager) Animal husbandry (stabling and storage)
Verarbeitendes Gewerbe Manufacturing industries
Militär Military
Düngerausbringung inkl Weidegang Spreading manure including pasturage
Verkehr Transport
Industrieprozesse Industrial processes
Abfall Waste
28 https://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/EN/TXT/PDF/?uri=CELEX:32001L0081&from=DE; retrieved on
26/06/2018 29 https://iir-de.wikidot.com/adjustments; retrieved on 26/06/2018
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3.1.1.6 Development of PM2.5 emissions 2005 – 2016
The main sources for primary PM2.5 emissions in Germany are transport (share of total
Küsten- und Binnenschifffahrt Coastal and inland waterway shipping
Inländischer Flugverkehr Domestic air transport
Emissionen aus Straßenabrieb Emissions from road wear
PM2.5 emissions from industrial processes have also fallen substantially (by over 6 kt),
predominantly in the metal and mineral industry.
There have also been reductions in PM2.5 emissions in the manufacturing industry source group
(Reduction: 1 kt) and in the energy industry (reduction: almost 2 kt). These reductions are
predominantly due to the introduction of emission limits in the 13th BImSchV30.
As regards households and small consumers, PM2.5 emissions have been reduced by almost 4 kt
in the time period from 2005 to 2016. Although the use of firewood for heating purposes has
very markedly risen in recent years, the introduction of ambitious emission limits in the 1st
BImSchV31for small combustion units both in the private and in the industrial sector has allowed
PM2.5 emissions to be reduced overall.
By contrast, slight emission increases are reported in agriculture. The increase in agricultural
primary PM2.5 emissions is primarily due to an increase in poultry numbers.
3.1.2 Compliance with the emission reduction commitments in force
Table 5 shows the emissions of SO2, NOX, NMVOCs and NH3 reported in 2018 in Germany for
2005 and for the time period from 2010 to 2016. Since the review of the Gothenburg protocol32
under the Geneva Convention on Long-Range Transboundary Air Pollution (CLRTAP), emissions
reporting has been available with the Inventory Adjustment, an instrument which allows certain
emissions to be deducted in the calculation of meeting the targets of Directive 2001/81/EC33.
This affects, for example, emissions from source groups which were not yet recorded in the
inventory when the National Emission Ceilings (NEC) in force since 2010 were set. For the
German inventory, three adjustments were applied for as part of the emissions reporting for
2018. The validity of these have been confirmed by a review under the CLRTAP. It involves some
30 Thirteenth Ordinance for Implementation of the Federal Emissions Control Act (Ordinance on Large Combustion
Plants, Gas Turbines and Combustion Engines) 31 First Ordinance for Implementation of the Federal Emissions Control Act (Ordinance on Small and Medium-Sized
Combustion Plants) 32 http://www.unece.org/env/lrtap/multi_h1.html; retrieved on 05/07/2018 33 https://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/EN/TXT/PDF/?uri=CELEX:32001L0081&from=DE; retrieved on
26/06/2018
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of the NOX emissions from road transport, the NOX and NMVOC emissions from agriculture and
the NH3 emissions from the fermentation of energy plants and spreading of energy plant
fermentation residue. The middle section of Table 5 shows the adjustments confirmed for the
German emissions inventory in 2018. These are publicly available on the websites of the
European Environment Agency under the following link:
Table 5: Compliance with emission ceilings in force since 2010 pursuant to Directive 2001/81/EC according to emissions reporting for 2018 (cf. IIR, 2018)
2005 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 NEC
national emissions quantities according to emissions reporting for 2018
NOX 1577 1357 1342 1304 1304 1265 1241 1218
NMVOCs 1324 1230 1146 1120 1105 1029 1039 1052
NH3 625 626 656 644 660 662 670 663
confirmed adjustments for checking compliance with national emission ceilings
pursuant to Directive 2001/81/EC
NOX -318 -287 -299 -298 -303 -296 -280 -250
NMVOCs -203 -201 -201 -204 -209 -210 -207 -204
NH3 -11 -40 -50 -51 -60 -60 -61 -61
Emissions quantities after adjustment and colour-coded compliance with the permissible national emission ceilings in force pursuant to
Directive 2001/81/EC according to emissions reporting for 2018
NOX 1259 1071 1043 1007 1000 968 961 969 1051
NMVOCs 1121 1029 945 916 896 819 832 848 995
NH3 614 586 606 592 600 601 610 602 550
Taking into account the confirmed adjustments, in 2016 only ammonia failed to comply with the
permissible national emission ceilings pursuant to Directive 2001/81/EC (see Table 5). Germany
has fallen significantly below the national emissions ceiling for sulphur dioxide for years. The
NOX and NMVOC emissions have been below the permissible national emission ceiling since the
year 2011. By contrast, ammonia emissions markedly exceed the permitted emission quantity in
all years. However, in the agricultural source groups, primarily in relation to the spreading of
mineral fertiliser, there have repeatedly been substantial changes in recent years to the emission
factor recommended on international level. The permissible ammonia emission ceiling was met
for example according to emissions reporting for 2012 and for 2014, while the emissions
reporting for 2013 and from 2015 onwards show the highest quantity permissible for ammonia
since 2010 being continually exceeded. As compliance with ammonia regulations seemed likely
until emissions reporting for 2015, implementation of additional measures for reducing
ammonia emissions was delayed. The adoption of the Fertiliser Ordinance in 201734, through
34 Ordinance on the Use of Fertilisers, Soil Improvers, Growing Media and Plant Adjuvants based on the Principles of
Good Professional Practice in Fertilisation (Fertiliser Ordinance - Du V) of 26/05/2017
which in particular reinforced provisions of the Nitrates Directive 91/676/EEC35 were
implemented in Germany, is the first measure to come into force for reduction of NH3 emissions.
Additionally it must be mentioned that the national emission ceilings agreed under international
law in the Gothenburg protocol for the year 2010 for the pollutants SO2 and NOX were 30 kt over
the national emission ceilings of the NEC Directive. The Gothenburg protocol sets a national
emission ceiling for Germany for SO2 of 550 kt and for NOX of 1 081 kt. For SO2, emissions have
consequently likewise fallen far below the limit for years. The emission ceiling set in the
Gothenburg protocol for NOX has been met since 2010.
From the year 2020, the absolute national emission ceilings in force up to that point will be
replaced by percentage reduction commitments in comparison with the base year 2005, in
accordance with the provisions of the new NEC Directive.
3.2 Development of ambient air quality 2005 -2016
3.2.1 Development of ambient air quality 2005 -2016 - compliance with national and EU regulations
3.2.1.1 Methodology for assessment for development of air quality
The assessment of ambient air quality takes place in consideration of the yearly reports on air
quality to the EU Commission pursuant to the Air Quality Directive 2008/50/EC and the content
of the annual evaluation of the development of ambient air quality by the Federal Environment
Agency for informing the general public.
The Air Quality Directive regulates the assessment of ambient air quality for the entire state
territory of each Member State. In this way there is a sub-division into conurbations and
individual areas. Measurements primarily take place where the highest pollution from humans is
expected. In conurbations with more than 250 000 inhabitants and in areas in which
concentrations are close to the limits set, there is an obligation to monitor the ambient air
quality through measurement. If the concentrations fall below the established thresholds,
guiding (which for example take place less frequently) measurements, model calculations,
objective estimates or emission inventories can also be used for assessment. Since 2014
(assessment year 2013), both the results and also information about the air quality monitoring
stations and the primary validated data in accordance with the requirements of Commission
Implementing Decision 2011/850/EU36 are sent in the new E-reporting format. All of Germany’s
reports are publicly available on the European Environment Agency website:
http://cdr.eionet.europa.eu/de/eu/aqd
In the following chapters, assessments are carried out of the development of ambient air quality,
specifically in relation to atmospheric pollutants, based on the format and the content of the
reporting. The emission trends, averaged over all stations of a certain station type for which
there is a sufficiently long time series, are each illustrated here and supplemented by
concentration maps. Unlike maps showing breaches of territorial limit or target values, in these
maps the measured values are shown combined with model results for the pollutants particulate 35 https://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/EN/TXT/PDF/?uri=CELEX:31991L0676&from=DE; retrieved on
26/06/2081 36 https://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/EN/TXT/PDF/?uri=CELEX:32011D0850&from=EN; retrieved on
26/06/2018
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matter, nitrogen dioxide and ozone, irrespective of area. This representation provides an
estimation of the spatial distribution of concentrations of atmospheric pollutants and is publicly
available via an interactive map service:
http://gis.uba.de/Website/luft/index.html
Additionally, an estimation of the exceedance situation is likewise divided according to
pollutants based on the share of monitoring stations in breach of limit or target values and on
the basis of a territorial assessment. For a better overview, there is in each case a map in which
all areas with breaches of limit or target values are coloured in red. This however does not mean
that the entire area is affected by high concentrations of pollutants, because if even a single
station breaches the limit, the entire assessment area is coloured red.
An overview is given below of which areas or conurbations have exceeded a limit or target value
for the concentrations of atmospheric pollutants. The assessments are based on data and
information from 16 federal states and the monitoring network of the Federal Environment
Agency. When the national Air Pollution Control Programme was created, a detailed assessment
of the data was only available up to 2016, thus the images relate to the time period up to 2016.
3.2.1.2 Development of NO2 concentrations
Traffic-related, inner-city nitrogen oxygen pollution has fallen significantly since 2005, but up to
2016, over half of all monitoring stations were over the limit of 40 µg/m³. The level of pollution
is primarily determined by local emission sources - in particular by traffic in conurbations - with
only minor inter-annual variations. As regards urban background and monitoring stations close
to industry, where traffic is not the dominant source, but a source alongside other important
pollutants like the energy sector and industry, average concentrations have dropped from
around 25 µg/m³ to around 21 µg/m³ since 2005. The corresponding station values were and
are, with limited exceptions, safely below the limit. In rural areas, not typical NOX emission
sources, only a small reduction is reported, typically the concentrations here are around 10
µg/m³.
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Image 11: Development of the annual average of measured NO2 concentrations
Source Target
Entwicklung der NO2- Jahresmittelwerte Development of NO2 annual averages
Im Mittel über ausgewählte Messstationen im jeweiligen Belastungsregime, Zeitraum 2005-2016
Average over selected monitoring stations in the respective pollution regime, time period 2005-2016
g/m3 g/m3
ländlicher Hintergrund rural background
städtischer Hintergrund urban background
städtisch verkehrsnah urban close to traffic
Industrienah close to industry
Image 12 shows the spatially resolved pollution by NO2 as an annual average from 2005 to 2016.
The concentrations across the territory were modelled on the basis of data from the emissions
inventory by means of a chemistry transport model. In this way, the measured values of the
background stations were incorporated for optimal interpolation (Flemming and Stern, 2004).
Additionally, the annual values measured at stations close to traffic are represented as point
information. The image shows that increased NO2 values in the territory occurred primarily in
densely populated conurbations and on transport routes. The values in German territory have
decreased considerably as a result of this assessment, the values of point measurements close to
traffic were and are for the most part above the limit, sometimes by a significant amount.
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Image 12: Modelled concentration maps for development of the annual average of measured NO2 concentrations with point information of measured values from stations close to traffic
Table 9: Development of the proportion of assessment areas with exceedance of the permissible NO2 hourly average
Proportion of assessment areas exceeding limit - hourly average
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
6 % 6 % 5 % 3 % 3 % 4 % 2 %
3.2.1.4 Development of PM10 concentrations
Along with large-scale and local reductions of direct PM10 emissions and of precursor gases for
build-up of secondary particulate matter in the atmosphere, the measured PM10 concentrations
from all station types fell markedly in the time period from 2005 to 2016. This period is however
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characterised by strong inter-annual variations, which are due primarily to the different weather
conditions. As well as the emission source strength, pollution depends significantly on
meteorological conditions. Thus direction of flow and wind speed determine whether particulate
matter is transported near or far away, the layer of the atmosphere determines dilution or
enrichment. The direction from which the air masses are transported also plays an important
role in particulate matter pollution. For example, eastern weather conditions in connection with
still atmospheric conditions often lead to increased concentrations of particulate matter, in
particular in the eastern German states.
Image 15: Development of the annual average of measured PM10 concentrations
Source Target
Entwicklung der PM10-Jahresmittelwerte Development of PM10 annual averages
In Mittel über ausgewählte Messstationen im jeweiligen Belastungsregime, Zeitraum 2005-2016
Average over selected monitoring stations in the respective pollution regime, time period 2005-2016
g/m3 g/m3
ländlicher Hintergrund rural background
städtischer Hintergrund urban background
städtisch verkehrsnah urban close to traffic
Industrienah close to industry
The representation of the spatial pollution by PM10 in Image 16 (created from a combination of
measurements and model calculations) for the past year shows that the concentrations over the
entire territory of Germany have fallen. Locally higher values, measured at stations close to
traffic, are represented as points. Since 2012, all concentration values (across the territory and at
the points) are below the annual limit.
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Image 16: Modelled concentration maps for development of the annual average of measured PM10 concentrations with point information of measured values from stations close to traffic and to industry
close to industry 0 / 7 0 / 9 0 / 9 0 / 9 0 / 14 0 / 15 0 / 16
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Table 15: Development of the proportion of assessment areas with exceedance of the permissible PM2.5 annual average
Proportion of areas exceeding limit 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Annual average 1 % 0 % 0 % 0 % 0 % 0 % 0 %
3.2.1.7 Development of O3 concentrations
The development of ozone pollution is Germany does not reflect the general declining trend of
emissions of the precursor gases NOX, NMVOC, methane (CH4) and carbon monoxide (CO) at all
points. Ozone concentrations are subject to stronger daily and annual variations than small-scale
variability, according to the reactions contributing to the formation of ozone and the
deterioration processes. The difference between the stations is thus lower, only locations close to
traffic often have lower concentrations than stations in the rural background, inter alia due to
interactions based on high NO emissions, which lead to the deterioration of the ozone.
Looking at the average number of days on which the highest sliding average built up over eight
hours exceeds the concentration of 120 µg/m³, this number has hardly changed since 2005,
taking into account the strong inter-annual variations caused by meteorology. Compliance with
this concentration value over the whole year is defined in the EU Air Quality Directive
2008/50/EC as a long-term objective. However, alongside the exceedance situation that is almost
unchanged since the 1990s, a decrease in peak concentrations measured has been reported. This
development is also confirmed by the results of the dispersion modelling for 2005 and 2015
carried out based on the emissions development of 2005 to 2015 in the current provisions of the
“NEC Directive: Further development of the projections for atmospheric pollutants for National
Air Pollution Control Programmes (PCN 3716512020).
Overall, it must be stated that for an effective reduction in ozone concentrations, further
reductions of emissions of all ozone precursor substances are necessary.
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Image 19: Development of the highest daily and hourly eight-hour averages for O3
Source Target
Ozon – Überschreitungstage des langfristigen Zieles Ozone - days exceeding the long-term objective
(120 g/m3 als höchster täglicher 8-Stunden-Mittelwert, im Mittel über durchgängig messende Stationen im jeweiligen Belastungsregime, Zeitraum 2005-2016)
(120 g/m3 as the highest daily 8-hour average, in average over continuously measuring stations in the respective pollution regime, time period 2005-2016)
ländlicher Hintergrund rural background
städtischer Hintergrund urban background
Stagnation is also becoming clear in the number of days exceeding 120 µg/m³ in the progression
of the three-year average of the highest daily eight-hour averages (cf. Image 20, target value for
protection of human health).
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Image 20: Development of the three-year average of the highest daily eight-hour average for O3
Source Target
Ozon – Überschreitungstage des Zielwertes Ozone - days exceeding the long-term objective
(3-Jahresmittel der Zahl der Tage mit tägl. Max. 8-
Stunden-Mittelwert > 120 g/m3, im Mittel über durchgängig messende Stationen im jeweiligen Belastungsregime, Zeitraum 2005-2016)
(3 annual average of the number of days with daily
maximum 8-hour average > 120 g/m3, in average over continuously measuring stations in the respective pollution regime, time period 2005-2016)
ländlicher Hintergrund rural background
städtischer Hintergrund urban background
The exceptionally hot summer of 2003, with the favourable atmospheric conditions for the
formation of low-level ozone, is clearly reflected in the three-year average for 2003-2005.
Subsequently, 2006 and 2015 were once again ozone-rich years, but this caused only a low
increase in the concentration values.
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Image 21: Modelled concentration maps for development of the three-year average of measured O3 concentrations
Source Target
Zahl der Tage mit maximalen Ozonkonzentrationen
über 120 g/m3 gemittelt über 3 Jahre
Number of days with maximum ozone concentration
over 120 g/m3 averaged over 3 years
Ozon ozone
Zahl Tage >120 g/m3 Number of days > 120 g3
Zielwert 25 Tage Target value 25 days
Umwelt Bundesamt Federal Environment Agency
3.2.1.8 O3 exceedance situations
3.2.1.8.1 O3 long-term scenarios (120 µg/m³ for daily maximum eight-hour average)
Sliding eight-hour average values over 120 µg/m³ occur extensively across Germany, other than
at stations close to traffic. Without exception, all areas and conurbations have been affected by
exceedances of the long-term objective continuously since 2010.
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Table 16: Ratio of the number of stations exceeding the O3 long-term objective to the total number of stations per station type used for assessment.
close to industry 0 / 16 0 / 16 0 / 14 0 / 14 0 / 15 2 / 15 2 / 15
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Image 22: Representation of the development of exceedance situations for O3 according to assessment areas (target value)
Source Target
Überschreitungssituation in den Beurteilungsgebieten
Exceedance situation in assessment areas
Ozon – 8-Stundenmittelwert gemittelt über 3 Jahre
(120 g/m3, maximal 25 Überschreitungstage)
Ozone – 8-hourly average averaged over 3 years
(120 g/m3, maximum 25 exceedance days)
Stationen Stations
mit Überschreitung With exceedance
Gebiete Areas
Ohne Überschreitung Without exceedance
Mit Überschreitung With exceedance
Umwelt Bundesamt Federal Environment Agency
Table 19: Development of the proportion of assessment areas with exceedance of the target value for O3
Proportion of areas exceeding the long-term objective
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
21 % 18 % 20 % 16 % 16 % 36 % 46 %
3.2.1.9 CO exceedance situations
There must be no exceedance of the daily maximum eight-hour average of 10 mg/m³. The CO
concentrations have been far below the limit values in force across Germany since 2010. Since
2010, only two stations have ever exceeded the limit value. Both cases were caused by accidents
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in industrial plants. The declining trend of concentrations has also however led to a drop in the
number of stations subject to monitoring. The number of stations with CO concentration
monitoring in Germany has thus fallen in recent years from around 200 stations to around 100
stations.
3.2.1.10 SO2 exceedance situations
Since the limit values came into force from 2005, i.e. daily averages must not exceed 125 µg/m³
more than three times in a calendar year and hourly averages must not exceed 350 μg/m³ more
than 24 times in a calendar year, both daily and hourly averages have been complied with at all
stations in Germany. The declining trend of concentrations has also however led to a drop in the
number of stations subject to monitoring. The number of stations with SO2 concentration
monitoring in Germany has thus fallen in recent years from around 250 stations to around 150
stations.
3.2.2 Development of ambient air quality 2005 -2015 – results of dispersion modelling
3.2.2.1 Methodology
The background concentrations of atmospheric pollutants in the ground-level air layer are
influenced considerably by meteorological variables. In order to assess the impact of emissions
from 2005 to 2015 on background concentrations of atmospheric pollutants, in addition to
assessment on the basis of the development of the measured concentrations of atmospheric
pollutants, two model runs were carried out using the chemistry transport model EURAD of the
Rheinland Institute for Environmental Research. Furthermore, this assessment should serve to
validate the results of the EURAD model runs to estimate the potential development of air
quality in the With Measures Scenario (WM) in Chapter 4.2 and in the NEC Compliance Scenario
(WAM) in Chapter 7.3.
The emission data for Germany are taken from
the emissions reporting 2018 for the years 2005 and 201539,
from outside Germany from Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service (CAMS)40.
For both years 2005 and 2015, a meteorological data set from the year 2005 was used in order to
distinguish the impact of meteorological differences on the modelled background concentrations
between the two years. As a result, there are modelled concentration data sets for each grid cell
in hourly resolution for one year per model run. From the results of these two model runs,
conclusions can be drawn concerning the impact of emissions development on air quality,
without concealing the meteorological consequences of the effects of emissions developments.
The results are assessed using difference maps of the absolute annual average in µg/m³ per grid
cell. The maps show spatially differentiated effects of emissions developments. In Chapter
3.2.2.7, the differences, averaged across all the cells, of the annual average of ground-level
concentrations per pollutant are shown. The results allow an estimation of how significant the
impact of future emission reductions might be on the improvement of air quality.
39 http://cdr.eionet.europa.eu/de/un/clrtap/inventories/envwoflug/; retrieved on 08/04/2018 40 http://drdsi.jrc.ec.europa.eu/dataset/tno-macc-iii-european-anthropogenic-emissions; retrieved on 08/04/2018
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3.2.2.2 Modelled background NO2 concentrations
The reduction of overall NOX emissions between 2005 and 2016, mainly due to a reduction of
NOX emissions by heavy-duty vehicles on the roads, results in a reduction of modelled NOX
background concentrations, without taking into account inter-annual differences of
meteorological influencing factors, primarily along the motorway network and in conurbations
with high traffic volume. This conclusion is confirmed by the development of NO2 values at
stations close to industry and in urban and rural backgrounds during the same time period.
Image 23: Difference of the EURAD-model runs 2015 – 2005 for NO2 in µg/m³ under the same meteorological conditions
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3.2.2.3 Modelled background SO2 concentrations
The reduction of overall SO2 emissions between 2005 and 2016, mainly due to a reduction of
emissions by large combustion plants and private households, also results in a reduction of
modelled SO2 background concentrations, without taking into account inter-annual differences
of meteorological influencing factors, primarily in urban conurbations with high absolute
populations and high population density, and in industrial conurbations. This conclusion also
matches the development of SO2 values at stations close to industry and traffic stations and in
the urban background. Highly concentrated differences are notable between 2015 and 2005,
which are due to the addition or the removal of plants from the Pollutant Release and Transfer
Register (PRTR).
Image 24: Difference of the EURAD-model runs 2015 – 2005 for SO2 in µg/m³ under the same meteorological conditions
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3.2.2.4 Modelled background NH3 concentrations
The modelled ammonia concentrations hardly changed between 2005 and 2015. The increase in
emissions in the time period considered is reflected primarily at individual points in Saxony-
Anhalt and Lower Saxony with a high density of intensive livestock farms and a large amount of
farm manure. This is explained firstly by the short life of ammonia in the atmosphere, which
leads to high modelled concentrations close to perennially large point sources of intensive
livestock farming, and secondly by a lack of detailed information on a national level about the
spatial distribution of ammonia emissions, for example about area-specific or at least farm-
specific quantities of fertiliser used, about manure transport or amounts of mineral fertilisers
purchased for use at German ports.
Image 25: Difference of the EURAD-model runs 2015 – 2005 for NH3 in µg/m³ under the same meteorological conditions
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3.2.2.5 Modelled background PM2.5 concentrations
When linking emissions development to the development of particulate matter concentrations in
the ambient air, it must be noted that particulate matter, both directly emitted and also
secondary in the atmosphere, is formed from precursor substances and can be transported over
large distances to the place of pollution. As fundamentally all pollutants regulated by the NEC
Directive contribute to particulate matter pollution in the air in this way, the reduction in
modelled particulate matter concentrations (cf. Image 26 for the PM2.5 fraction) is not due solely
to the emissions development of one atmospheric pollutant. As emissions of pollutants regulated
by the NEC Directive have however fallen, with the exception of ammonia, a near-universal
reduction of modelled particulate matter concentrations is also to be noted.
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Image 26: Difference of the EURAD-model runs 2015 – 2005 for PM2.5 in µg/m³ under the same meteorological conditions
3.2.2.6 Modelled background O3 concentrations
Ozone is formed almost exclusively of emissions of precursor gases. Therefore, the majority of
reactions contributing to ozone formation or to ozone depletion lead to a complex linking of the
development of precursor emissions to the measured or modelled concentrations. The
comparison of average modelled concentrations in 2015 and 2005 reiterates the picture created
by the measurement results: Episodes with very high concentrations of ozone are rare (cf. Image
28), but the average ground-level ozone concentration increases across Germany if
meteorological influences are excluded from consideration (cf. Image 27). This increase is also
based on Europe-wide developments and global trends of emissions of precursor gases and is
not due solely to emissions development in Germany.
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Image 27: Difference of the EURAD-model runs 2015 – 2005 for O3 in µg/m³ under the same meteorological conditions
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Image 28: Result of the EURAD-model runs 2005 and 2015 for the number of days of exceedance of the O3 target under the same meteorological conditions
3.2.2.7 Summary of results of dispersion modelling
Table 20 shows the average difference of annual averages per grid cell of the modelled hourly
concentrations of selected pollutants for 2005 and 2015. For both years, the emissions data is
based on the emissions reporting 2018. Due to the decreasing (with the exception of ammonia)
emissions, the modelled background concentrations for NO2, SO2, PM10 and PM2.5 are also falling.
The modelled concentrations for ammonia increase in accordance with the slightly increased
emissions for the time period. The development of ozone concentrations cannot be explained
solely by emissions development in Germany, due to the complex ozone chemistry in the lowest
layer of the atmosphere and the solar radiation necessary for ozone formation. For assessment,
global emissions development and selected meteorological episodes must be considered. Similar
to the moderate reduction in emissions in the period under consideration (other than NH3),
background concentrations of NO2, SO2, PM10 and PM2.5 also fall only slightly, while by contrast
emissions of NH3 and O3 increase. If, in addition to the future emission reduction measures to
comply with national emission reduction commitments in the NEC Directive, no local emission
reduction measures are also taken to improve air quality, the exceedance situation of NO2
concentrations measured close to traffic will only slowly improve in future.
Table 20: Difference in modelled annual average of background concentrations under the same meteorological conditions for 2005 and 2015
Pollutant absolute difference of annual averages 2005 and 2015 in µg/m³
NO2 -2.8
Ozone +1.8
NH3 +0.9
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SO2 -1.3
PM10 -2.7
PM2.5 -2.6
3.3 Assessment of the development of cross-border transport of atmospheric pollutants from and to Germany
In order to draw conclusions from the available model runs described in Chapter 3.2.2.1 without
the need for additional calculations, the material flows have been determined up to 3 000 metres
in height between the grid cells of the model areas within German borders and the adjoining grid
cells of neighbouring states for atmospheric pollutants PM10, PM2.5, SO2, NH3 and NO2, and for
each neighbouring state, a corresponding total of the input and output per modelled year has
been generated for the entire common border. The development of this input and output from
2005 to 2015 illustrates the impact of emissions development on cross-border flows according
to meteorological conditions in the year 2005. The cross-border transport of atmospheric
pollutants is influenced to a particular extent by the meteorological framework conditions. In
order to consider the sole influence of altered emissions, calculations are made using for
example unchanged meteorology from the year 2005.
On the basis of the results, Germany’s neighbouring countries have been grouped according to
countries across whose borders there is a net import of pollutants into Germany and countries
across whose borders there is a net export of pollutants from Germany. In 2005 and 2015, there
were net exports of pollutants to Denmark, Poland, Austria and the Czech Republic. In 2005 and
2015, there were net imports from France, Belgium, Luxembourg and the Netherlands.
Regarding Switzerland, in 2005 and 2015 there was a net export of NO2 and SO2, and, by
contrast, a net import of NH3, PM10 and PM2.5.
Overall, the cross-border transport (export) from Germany has fallen for all pollutants other
than for NH3 in 2015 in comparison to 2005 in the model runs. The cross-border transport to
Germany (import) from neighbouring countries has fallen for all pollutants investigated, other
than for NH3, in 2015 in comparison to 2005.
Overall, across all neighbouring countries bordering Germany, both in the model run for 2005
and that for 2015, the export from Germany of all atmospheric pollutants investigated slightly
outweighs the import from neighbouring countries. The net export from Germany to
neighbouring countries increased slightly for all atmospheric pollutants investigated, other than
for NO2.
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4 Projected further evolution assuming no change to strategies and measures already adopted
4.1 Emission projection to 2030 and assessment of emission reduction in comparison to 2005 in the With Measures Scenario (WM)
4.1.1 With Measures Scenario (WM)
4.1.1.1 Development in rates of activity - general
The projection of NOX, NMVOC, SO2, NH3 and PM2.5 emissions in the With Measures Scenario
(WM) was for the majority of the time series based on the projected development of the activity
rates in the With Measures Scenario (WM) of the Projection Report of the Federal Government
2017 (PR 2017). The extensive data has been taken from the related research project
commissioned by the Federal Environment Agency “Improving the methodological base and
designing a greenhouse gas emissions scenario as basis for the Projection Report 2017 as part of
the EU greenhouse gas monitoring (Policy scenarios VIII)"(PCN 3716411050). This scenario
comprises all climate protection measures adopted up to 31 July 2016. In the source groups
transport, agriculture and solvent application (see Chapter 4.1.1.2), different activity rate
projections are used and thus different key dates are set.
As some of the activity rates from this scenario are only available in aggregated form for source
group areas or for example energy sources, disaggregation had to take place on the time series
system transferred from ZSE into the EMMa database. If no further information was available,
the projected rate of activity was allocated to the corresponding time series on the basis of the
inventoried distribution from the year 2016 according to the emissions reporting 2018 for the
years 2020, 2025 and 2030. Therefore, on the basis of this assumption, possible shifts within a
group of emitters, for example from one technology to another lower-emissions technology, or
vice-versa, cannot be illustrated.
The Projection Report 2017 contains the assumptions included in Table 21 about the
development of activity rates in the With Measures Scenario, with the overall trend being
apparent particularly from separate trend projections for primary and final energy consumption
and gross electricity production. The further assumptions of the With Measures scenario are
described in detail in the projection report.
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Table 21: Selected trend projections for primary energy consumption, final energy consumption and gross electricity consumption for the year 2030 in the With Measures Scenario of the PR 2017 in comparison to the year 2014.
2014 2030
Primary energy consumption 13 227 PJ 11 226 PJ
of which: lignite 1 580 PJ 1 078 PJ
Final energy consumption 8 753 PJ 8 144 PJ
of which: lignite 87 PJ 55 PJ
Gross electricity production 626.6 TWh 601.6 TWh
of which: lignite 155.8 TWh 111.4 TWh
of which: hard coal 118.6 TWh 97.8 TWh
of which: nuclear energy 97.1 TWh 0 TWh
of which: natural gas 61.1 TWh 76.8 TWh
Gross electricity production 591.0 TWh 550.9 TWh
of which: industry 228.8 TWh 206.8 TWh
of which: commerce, trade and services 142.8 TWh 139.1 TWh
of which: residential 129.7 TWh 116.8 TWh
of which: energy sector (own power consumption
power plants, line losses, etc.)
81.1 TWh 63.3 TWh
The largest contributions to future reduction of greenhouse gas emissions in WMS in the
Projection Report 2017, which also impact upon emissions of atmospheric pollutants, are
provided by the measures (PR 2017, p.33):
a) lignite - standby mode
b) carbon trading;
c) market incentive programmes for renewable energy in the construction sector,
d) KfW programme for energy-efficient construction and renovation,
e) energy savings regulation,
f) energy consultancy for medium - sized companies.
In the research project ‘NEC Directive: Further development of projections for atmospheric
pollutants for National Air Pollution Control Programmes’ (PCN 3716512020), the effect of these
measures was taken into account for the development of activity rates. The project assumes that
the emission factors are not influenced by these measures.
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4.1.1.2 Further trend projections - air pollution control
In the transport sector (NFR 1.A.3, cf. Annex A) the use of activity rate projections from the PR
2017 has been abandoned and the updated trend scenarios from the TREMOD Version 5.72
(UBA, 2017) as of November 2017 used instead. The use of an updated TREMOD trend
projections in comparison to PR 2017 was necessary so as to incorporate the updates to exhaust
emission factors of diesel cars from the Handbook Emission Factors for Road Transport [HBEFA]
Version 3.3.
In relation to development in road transport mileage and development in rail transport services,
inland waterway shipping and air transport, the TREMOD trend projection is based on the
transport volume structure of the transport integration forecast 2030 from the Federal Ministry
for Transport and Digital Infrastructure (BMWI), which is also the basis of the PB 2017. The
TREMOD trend projection assumes that in the period up to 2030, diesel and petroleum will
remain the dominant sources of drive power. Alternatives (including natural gas, liquid gas)
represent only a small proportion; electric vehicles are slowly becoming more popular. The fleet
composition projection for road transport is based in TREMOD on a shifting model which takes
into account the annual new certifications and the expected operational life of vehicles in
Germany.
The development of specific emissions of atmospheric pollutants is based for road transport on
the current emissions legislation. For diesel cars, the new pollutant classes Euro 6d-Temp and
Euro 6d are taken into consideration. The evolution of energy efficiency for cars and light-duty
vehicles is in principle based on Regulations (EC) No 443/200941 and (EU) No 333/201442. In
addition, further assumptions have been made in order to illustrate the discrepancy between the
New European Drive Cycle (NEDC) and real consumption.
Future developments in the road transport services which form the basis of the With-Measures
Scenario of the PR 2017 are fully covered by the developments considered in the TREMOD trend
projection. There are no further measures to be taken into account for the With-Measures
Scenario, as future emissions legislation (Euro 6d-Temp and 6d for diesel cars) are also already
included in the TREMOD trend projection along with current energy efficiency developments.
There is also a TREMOD trend projection for other transport. For rail, inland waterway shipping
and air transport and mobile machines, account has been taken of developments in energy
efficiency and in specific emissions factors, which respectively take into account current
emissions legislation. As some of the projections were not specific to a time series, the related
trends were applied to the associated disaggregated time series in EMMa.
In the field of agriculture, the amended Fertiliser Ordinance, in force since 2 June 2017, includes
relevant regulations regarding emissions of atmospheric pollutants, in particular of ammonia
(NH3). The projection4344 is influenced significantly by the following assumptions (Thu nen
Report 56, 2018, p.18):
41 https://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/EN/TXT/PDF/?uri=CELEX:32009R0443&from=DE; retrieved on
20/09/2018 42 https://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/EN/TXT/PDF/?uri=CELEX:32014R0333&from=EN; retrieved on
20/09/2018 43 Offermann, F., Banse, M., Freund, F., Haß, M., Kreins, P., Laquai, V., Osterburg, B., Pelikan, J., Ro semann, C., Salamon, P.
(2018): Thu nen baseline 2017 – 2027: Agricultural economics projections for Germany. Braunschweig: Johann
Heinrich von Thu nen Institute, 116 pages, Thu nen Report 56.
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a) ‘The inclusion of digestate of vegetable origin in the output limit of 170 kg of nitrogen from
organic fertilisers per hectare and per year on average for agricultural areas used on a farm,
b) the assumption that there will be no extension of the exemptions to the upper limit of 170 kg
nitrogen per hectare from organic fertilisers,
c) fertilising with urea only with addition of urease inhibitors,
d) the requirement to use improved spreading technology for liquid agricultural fertilisers
(strip-till system/ direct application into the soil on arable land from 1 February 2020, on
permanent pasture or multi-shear forage cropping from 1 February 2025),
e) the extension of embargoes on spreading fertilisers on arable land and pasture,
f) the evidence required from 2020 of storage capacity of at least nine months for farms with
more than three livestock units per hectare,
g) the tightening of guidelines concerning nutrient comparison with plausibility check on forage
yields
h) and reduction in control value to 50 kg N/ha and 10 kg P2O5/ha.“
Almost 54 kt reduction potential up to the year 2027 in comparison to the average from the
years 2014 and 2016 is thus available through reduced ammonia emissions from spreading of
agricultural fertiliser, by means of low-emission spreading on vegetated areas and through
assumed reduction in fermentation residue. The mandatory addition of urease inhibitors when
using ureas is assessed to have a further reduction potential of around 32 kt (Thu nen Report 56,
2018, p. 48).
In addition, the reduction effects of the national and European regulations legally adopted up to
1 September 2017 in the field of air pollution control have been anticipated in the With
Measures Scenario (WM), the effect of which is not yet or not yet fully illustrated by the
Emissions Inventory 2018, which consequently still have potential for future emissions
reductions. In the project ‘NEC Directive: Further development of projections for atmospheric
pollutants for National Air Pollution Control programmes’ (PCN 3716512020) has evaluated the
reduction effect of the following measures:
a) further emission reduction through development of existing systems at combustion
plants taking into account the requirements under
o Ordinance on large combustion plants, gas turbines and combustion
engines of 2 May 2013 (13th Federal Emissions Control Regulation
(BImSchV)
o Change of 13th BImSchV of 19th December 2017 on the national
implementation of the Commission Implementing Decision on
conclusions on the Best Available Techniques in relation to the refining of
mineral oil and gas and in relation to the manufacturing of cellulose,
paper and cardboard
o Ordinance on Incinerated and Co-incinerated Waste of 2 May 2013 (17th
BImSchV)
44 The regularly updated projection of future activity rates and the influence of the Fertiliser Ordinance on emissions
from spreading fertiliser have been calculated by the Johann Heinrich von Thu nen Institute in its baseline projection
2017-2027 with the status of adoption as at March 2017, and made available to the Federal Environment Agency for
the years 2020 and 2027 in the EMMa system.
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o Ordinance on Small and Medium-sized Combustion Plants of 26 January
2010 (1st BImSchV)
b) Best Available Technique (BAT) - Conclusions of the Annex of the Implementing Decision
(EU) 2017/1442 of 31 July 2017 [LCP BREFs]
c) Directive (EU) 2015/2193 of the European Parliament and of the Council of 25
November 2015 on the limitation of emissions of certain pollutants into the air from
medium combustion plants (MCP Directive)
d) Directive 2009/125/EC of 21 October 2009 establishing a framework for the stipulating
of ecodesign requirements for energy-related products (ecodesign directive); and
Regulation (EU) 2015/1189 of 28 April 2015 with regard to stipulating ecodesign
requirements for solid fuel boilers
For plants within the scope of application of the 13th and 17th BImSchV it has been assumed
that the limits established in the regulations from 2020 have been complied with in full.
Tightening these limits has been assumed in the With Measures Scenario (WM) only in cases in
which the upper end of the relative permissible range of emission levels in the yearly average
from the BAT conclusions of the Implementing Decision (EU) 2017/1442 is lower than the
provisions of the Federal Emissions Control Regulation currently in force.
For combustion plants with a thermal input of at least 1 MW and less than 50 MW, irrespective of
the kind of fuel used, the requirements of Directive (EU) 2015/2193 (MCP Directive) have been
assessed in the With Measures Scenario, insofar as they go beyond existing German law.
In the With Measures Scenario (WM), the development of the state of technology in industrial
plants is illustrated. As the draft bill for the new version of the First General Administrative
Regulation of the Federal Emissions Control Act (Technical instructions on Air Quality Control -
TA Luft) of 16 July 201845 will, according to current estimates, not lead to any additional
reduction, this new version of the TA Luft for the industrial plants sector is already included in
the With Measures Scenario (WM).
Plants with a nominal heat output between 4 kW and 1 MW (for oil and gas combustion facilities,
between 4 kW and 20 MW), which do not require approval under Section 4 of the Federal
Emissions Control Regulation, are regulated in Germany by the 1st BImSchV. All plants between
1 MW and 20 MW now fall within the scope of the MCP Directive, as of 25 November 2015. For
some plants in the smaller than 1 MW range, the Directive 2009/125/EC and associated
Implementing Regulations mean requirements have changed. Experts estimate that the
requirements of the Ecodesign Directive significantly exceed the requirements of the 1st
BImSchV in only one case: solid fuel boilers, governed by Regulation (EU) 2015/1189, are
subject to a less demanding limit under EU law, which has been taken into account in the With
Measures Scenario (WM). In addition, the scopes of application of the two regulations differ. The
Ecodesign Directive 2009/125/EC sets emission limits for solid fuel boilers in the range from 0
to 500 kW. The 1st BImSchV applies to solid fuel furnaces with a thermal input of up to 1 MW.
For solid fuel boilers under 4 kW, basic requirements for technical design are set, but no
emission limits are prescribed. Solid fuel boilers between 0 and 4 kW are thus governed by the
Ecodesign Regulation regarding emission limits from 2020. Plants between 500 kW and 1 MW
4.1.3 Description of the uncertainties linked to the emission projection in the With Measures Scenario (WM)
An estimation of the uncertainties of the emissions inventory for atmospheric pollutants is
included in the Chapter “Uncertainties” in the informative inventory report in the emissions
reporting 201846 (IIR, 2018). The uncertainty estimation of the German emissions inventory for
atmospheric pollutants has until now followed only a Tier 1 approach pursuant to the IPCC47
(2006). The current estimations for uncertainty of the inventoried emissions total of NEC
pollutants is between 10 % and 27 %. In the next step, the uncertainties based on the With
Measures Scenario in the Projection Report of the Federal Government 2017 (PR 2017) are used
to update the activity rate development. Naturally, and confirmed by comparison of previous
projections with actual occurring developments, there are big uncertainties that become even
bigger the further the projected time period moves into the future. The dissection of the total
development of the With Measures Scenario in the PR (2017) into individual components and 46 https://iir-de.wikidot.com/general-uncertainty-evaluation; retrieved on 25/06/2018 47 IPCC, 2006 - Eggleston, S., Buendia L., Miwa K., Ngara T., and Tanabe K.,(Eds). 2006: IPCC Guidelines for National
Greenhouse Gas Inventories IPCC/IGES, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Hayama, Japan
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the influence thereof on the result of the projection is shown in Image 29. It is clear here that the
projected fall in energy intensity offsets the increasing GHG emissions through projected
economic growth and leads to a reduction in greenhouse gases overall. Emission projections for
atmospheric pollutants give rise to a similar conclusion. If the energy intensity does not fall as
illustrated, the increasing activity rates as a result of economic growth will find it difficult to
compensate through technical reduction measures.
In addition to this, there are uncertainties regarding the evaluation of future reduction potentials
of strategies and measures already adopted and considered in the With Measures Scenario (WM)
of the National Air Pollution Control Programme. The uncertainties of the projection of absolute
national emissions of certain atmospheric pollutants in kilotonnes up to 2030 is thus naturally
very much dependent on the uncertainties of the greenhouse gas emissions projection.
Image 29: Component analysis for development of greenhouse gas emissions from energy use in the Projection Report of the Federal Government 2017 (PR 2017, p.272)
Source Target
Mio. t CO2e ggü. 2014 Millions of t CO2e in comparison to 2014
To further estimate the sensitivity of the emission projections to activity rate changes, the
measures of the With Measures Scenario have been calculated using both activity rate scenarios
from the Projection Report 2017. The results are set out in Table 29. Ammonia is not included in
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the table, as on the basis of the Thu nen baseline projection (Thu nen Report 56, 2018), in both
activity rate scenarios there are only very small differences in this regard.
Table 29: Emissions projections in the With Measures Scenario (WM) with different activity rate scenarios of the Projection Report 2017
WM projection with different activity rate scenarios NOX SO2 NMVOCs PM2.5
2020
With Measures Scenario (WM) based on reference projections for climate projection (PB 2017, WMS) kt 882 301 803 91
With Measures Scenario (WM) based on reference projections for climate projection (PB 2017, WFMS) kt 874 293 802 90
2025
With Measures Scenario (WM) based on reference projections for climate projection (PB 2017, WMS) kt 726 259 787 85
With Measures Scenario (WM) based on reference projections for climate projection (PB 2017, WFMS) kt 709 241 785 84
2030
With Measures Scenario (WM) based on reference projections for climate projection (PB 2017, WMS) kt 603 231 785 80
With Measures Scenario (WM) based on reference projections for climate projection (PB 2017, WFMS) kt 578 204 783 78
4.2 Description of the projected improvement in air quality in the With Measures Scenario (WM)
4.2.1 Modelled background NO2 concentrations
The clear drop in projected NOX emissions from road transport up to 2030 shows clearly in the
difference map of the absolute annual average of the background concentrations per grid cell in
comparison with 2005. In highly polluted, congested areas, a drop in the modelled background
pollution of up to 10 µg/m³ is has been recorded. An even steeper drop is to be expected across
Germany in the annual average measured for congested areas. This conclusion must however be
confirmed by small-scale hotspot modelling, taking into account further location-specific
assumptions.
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Image 30: Difference of the EURAD model runs WM-2030 – 2005 for NO2 in µg/m³ under the same meteorological conditions
4.2.2 Modelled background SO2 concentrations
The difference in the annual average per grid cell between 2005 and the background
concentrations modelled in the With Measures Scenario (WM) for 2030 reflects the principal
decline in emissions from large combustion plants larger than 50 MW and other combustion
plants smaller than 1 MW. This means reductions within close range of the source of 4 µg/m³
and in areas with corresponding population density to reductions between 1 and 2 µg/m³.
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Image 31: Difference of the EURAD model runs WM-2030 – 2005 for SO2 in µg/m³ under the same meteorological conditions
4.2.3 Modelled background NH3 concentrations
The low development of ammonia emissions between 2005 and 2030 in the With Measures
Scenario based on Thu nen baseline projection leads to only small modifications in the modelled
ammonia concentrations. The difference map of the modelled annual averages per grid cell
shows a corresponding image.
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Image 32: Difference of the EURAD model runs WM-2030 – 2005 for NH3 in µg/m³ under the same meteorological conditions
4.2.4 Modelled background PM2.5 concentrations
The modelled PM2.5 background concentrations have seen a universal drop of 2 to 8 µg/m³
compared to 2005 in the annual average. On the basis of the high proportion of secondary
particulate matter from emissions from precursor substances, no conclusion can be drawn
spatially about the reduction of primary particulate matter sources. The reduction in modelled
background concentrations seems to be particularly high in densely populated areas.
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Image 33: Difference of the EURAD model runs WM-2030 – 2005 for PM2.5 in µg/m³ under the same meteorological conditions
4.2.5 Modelled background O3 concentrations
The difference from 2005 and the annual average of ozone concentrations modelled in the With
Measures Scenario (WM) for 2030 shows a clear increase in congested areas and conurbations
by up to 10 µg/m³. The number of days with high peak concentrations (see Image 35) has fallen,
however. The reduction in peak concentration can be traced back to a reduction in emissions of
ozone precursors, with the increase in the modelled annual average being due to the drop in NOX
emissions.
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Image 34: Difference of the EURAD model runs WM-2030 – 2005 for O3 in µg/m³ under the same meteorological conditions
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Image 35: Result of the EURAD-model runs 2005 and WM-2030 for the number of days of exceedance of the O3 target under the same meteorological conditions
4.2.6 Summary of results of dispersion modelling
Table 30 shows the average difference of annual averages per grid cell of the hourly background
concentrations of selected atmospheric pollutants modelled in the With Measures Scenario
(WM) for 2005 and 2030. For NO2, SO2, PM10 and PM2.5, significant reductions are already
forecast in the scenario without further measures. For ozone annual averages, a marked increase
is forecast on average. The ammonia concentrations hardly change, as the projected ammonia
emissions also fall by only 9 % in comparison with 2005. Presumably, also due to the reduction
in other precursor emissions of secondary particulate matter build-up in several regions, there is
a reduced availability of binding partners and ammonia remains in the air for longer, meaning
that concentrations have not decreased in comparison to 2005.
Table 30: Difference of modelled annual average of background concentrations under the same meteorological conditions for 2005 and 2030 in the With Measures Scenario (WM)
Pollutant absolute difference of annual averages 2005 and 2030 in µg/m³
NO2 -6.4
Ozone +4.7
NH3 +0.1
SO2 -1.2
PM10 -4.9
PM2.5 -5.1
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5 Options for strategies and measures for complying with emission reduction commitments from 2020 and from 2030 and indicative interim targets from 2025
5.1 Further options for action for climate protection
Measures relating to climate protection have an extensive impact on emissions of atmospheric
pollutants.
According to the German Energy Act and the monitoring report of the Federal Network Agency
and the Federal Cartel Office for 201748 (BNetzA, 2017) and the associated published data49, in
the years 2016 to 2019 respectively, by 1 October around 2.7 GW electric net nominal capacity
from lignite has been and is being converted into standby mode (cf. Table 31). Standby mode,
governed in the German Energy Act with effect from 30 July 2016 is already included in the WM
scenario.
Table 31: Lignite power stations transferred into standby mode up to 2020 (amended following BnetzA, 2017).
Year Blocks converted to standby mode Electrical net nominal capacity
2016 Buschhaus (MIBRAG) 352 MW
2017 Block P and Q in Frimmersdorf (RWE Power AG) 562 MW
2018 Block E and F in Niederaußem (RWE Power AG)
Block F in Ja nschwalde/Peitz (Vattenfall)
594 MW
465 MW
2019 Block E in Ja nschwalde/Peitz (Vattenfall)
lock C in Neurath/Grevenbroich (RWE Power AG)
465 MW
292 MW
In the With Further Measures Scenario (WFMS) of the Projection Report of the Federal
Government 2017 (PR 2017), further strategies and measures to reduce greenhouse gas
emissions and their impact upon the development of activity rates have been evaluated.
These measures have been essentially
taken from the interdepartmental ‘Action Programme for Climate Protection 2020’50 and
nape.pdf?__blob=publicationFile&v=8; retrieved on 10/07/18 52 https://www.bmu.de/fileadmin/Daten_BMU/Download_PDF/Klimaschutz/klimaschutzplan_2050_bf.pdf; retrieved
on 17 August 2018
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The Commission set up by the German government in June 2018, “Wachstum, Strukturwandel
und Bescha ftigung (WSB)” (Growth, Structural Change and Employment) recommended in its
final report of 26 January 2019, inter alia, that power generation from coal in Germany should
end, if possible by 2035 and at the latest by 2038.
These recommendations relate to the installed capacity, not to the quantity of power produced
by individual plants and fuel inputs in the individual plants; the latest figures are in any case
necessary for preparing emission projections. In addition, there are several commission
recommendations which are yet to be adopted into legal regulations.
For these reasons, the accelerated phase-out recommended by the WSB Commission of coal-fired
electricity has not yet been considered in the current scenario. In the following chapters,
however, the emissions development resulting from an altered energy scenario with certain
assumptions is estimated.
The objective reaching scenario based on the recommendations of the WSB Commission ‘65 %
renewable energy and coal action’ has been drawn up by r2b energy consulting GmbH and was
made available to the Federal Environment Agency for preliminary assessment of potential
reduction of atmospheric emissions on 25 March 2019 by the Federal Ministry for Economic
Affairs and Energy.
Following adoption of the legal regulations in this regard currently being drafted, which is not to
be expected before the end of 2019, the emission reductions resulting therefrom and an updated
list of emission reduction measures has been updated accordingly.
5.2 Further options for action - NOX
In the assumption of an energy scenario which corresponds to the recommendations of the WSB
Commission, there would be in 2030 emission reductions of over 32 kilotonnes in addition to the
emission reductions which are linked to the WFMS reference projections. For this estimate,
different assumptions have been made in relation to the shutdown sequence, the efficiency rate
and emission values of the individual plants, the total electricity consumption in certain sectors,
the import-export balance of electricity production and the capacity expansion of low-emissions
renewable energy carriers (in particular wind and PV), which are subject to corresponding
uncertainties.
Furthermore, where there are differences with the projections made in this National Air
Pollution Control Programme, further measures are taken. These are represented where
necessary as part of the next revision of the National Air Pollution Control Programme.
For the source group of medium combustion plants, the implementation of the MCP Directive
(EU) 2015/219353 in German law is now almost complete54. However, as this took place after the
above-mentioned key date, these measures are assigned to the WAM scenario.
Significant emission reductions are therefore to be expected for medium natural gas and biogas
engines, and in medium combustion plants for solid biomass, other solid fuels and heavy fuel oil.
Thus it is to be assumed that corresponding conversion for natural gas and biogas engines and
53 https://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/EN/TXT/PDF/?uri=CELEX:32015L2193&from=DE; retrieved on
02/07/2018 54 Adoption by the German government of a 44th BImSchV of 18/03/2019, expected to come into force from July
2019.
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for plants that use heavy fuel oil is completed by 2030. Regarding the use of solid biomass and
other solid fuels, it has been assumed that by 2030, 50 % of plants comply with the provisions of
the draft ordinance for new plants.
There is further reduction potential for NOX emissions in the field of road transport. In the With
Measures Scenario, a further, steeper decrease in NOX emissions is already anticipated.
Nevertheless, it seems appropriate, particularly in relation to NO2 pollution at monitoring
stations in congested areas, to make increased effort. Thus a combination of different measures
in road transport have been assessed for their effects on mileage and implicit emission factors. In
this combination of measures, possible actions as a consequence of the various diesel summits of
the German government and other measures already introduced in different policy areas are
assessed in relation to their effects on the emissions of atmospheric pollutants. In this way, there
is also impact on other atmospheric pollutants. The package of measures assessed for road
transport comprises the following assumptions:
Software update diesel cars (and light-duty vehicles) Euro 5/6 and environmental bonus
(repurchase of diesel cars Euro 4 and older).
Hardware retrofitting for diesel buses to reduce NOX emissions
Development and strengthening of the environmental alliance
Updating of NO2 limits. For cars, the proposal by the European Commission (average
reduction of CO2 emissions in the new car fleet of 30 % in 2030 in comparison to 2021),
which assumes a greater proportion of e-vehicles in 2030 than previously in the
TREMOD trend projection, is used as a basis for the calculations. For the calculation of
the WAM scenario, a proportion of e-vehicles of 15 % has been assumed from 2025.
Further measures which were not assessed as part of the road transport measures package are
measures for digitalisation of the transport systems and for electrification of road transport as
part of the ‘Emergency Programme for Cleaner Air 2017-2020’ and the measures included in the
‘Concept for cleaner air and the securing of individual mobility in our towns’ from 1 October
2018 for retrofitting hardware of communal vehicles and of delivery and trade vehicles.
The absolute emissions from the agricultural sector remain almost constant; the relative
proportion of total emissions thus increase. Agricultural NOx emissions are however not
compliance-relevant for the reduction commitments in the NEC Directive.
5.3 Further options for action - NMVOC
For the emissions of non-methane volatile organic compounds (NMVOC), the projections already
include the reduction commitments in the With Measures Scenario. Due to the high sensitivity of
the projection to economic input data, it can however quickly happen that further options for
action are requested in order to return to the predefined reduction path. Relevant reduction
measures are to be found mainly in the field of application of solvent-based products, due to its
proportion of the total emissions. Reduction options have been comprehensively evaluated in an
expert report commissioned by the Federal Environment Agency through the Institut fu r
O kologie und Politik GmbH (O KOPOL).
The assessment reveals an overall reduction potential of up to 90 kt by 2030 in comparison with
emissions in 2015 according to emissions reporting 2017. In principle, product-related
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measures governed by European law can be distinguished from plant-related measures which
can also be established nationally. On a European level, further product-related regulations are
less likely, according to expert views. There is further scope for reduction within the national
area of responsibility by limiting the solvent content of road marking paints to a maximum of
two percent by weight in public tenders for road painting. EU provisions in the plants sector are
currently expected exclusively through further BAT conclusions. Nationally, an amendment of the
31st BImSchV55 is possible, with reduction in threshold values on the basis of the already
existing monitoring deficiency being considered as critical and an extension to other plants only
seeming promising for digital printing, as this is used on a widespread basis for coding in larger,
already monitored package printing plants. The replacement of solvent-based paints and
lacquers by water-based paints and lacquers is however accompanied, according to expert
opinion, by a greater use of biocides, which ensure longer shelf life after opening.
The absolute emissions from the agricultural sector remain almost constant; the relative
proportion of total emissions thus increases. Agricultural NMVOC emissions are however not
compliance-relevant for the reduction commitments in the NEC Directive.
5.4 Further options for action - SO2
For emissions of relevant sulphur compounds (as SO2), the With Measures Scenario (WM) falls
short of the reduction commitment in the NEC Directive by almost 40 kt. This is reduced by
taking into account the further climate protection measures in the WFMS in the Projection
Report to almost 10 kt. To date, no specific air pollution control measures specifically for
reduction of sulphur dioxide emissions have been quantified.
The effects of implementation of climate protection targets through successive reduction of coal-
fired power generation should eliminate the shortfall in meeting the reduction commitment in
time. By adopting the recommendations of ‘Wachstum, Strukturwandel, Bescha ftigung’56
commission, the assumptions made on the basis of the previous chapter would produce an
additional reduction potential of over 34 kt. The emission reduction commitments for SO2 would
thus be reached.
An alternative reduction option, not expected to prove necessary in the event of clear reduction
of coal-fired power generation, is in the field of industrial production. Almost a quarter of the SO2
emissions forecast for 2030 is caused to a significant extent by sinter, glass, cement and steel
production. There is high reduction potential here in requiring a switch of fuels used to low-
sulphur fuels or more efficient technologies for waste gas cleaning.
There are also knock-on effects from the Ordinance on Large Combustion Plants, Gas Turbines
and Combustion Engines detailed in Chapter 5.2 (44th BImSchV).
55 31st Ordinance for Implementation of the Federal Emissions Control Act (Ordinance on limiting emissions of
volatile organic compounds in the use of organic solvents in certain installations)(31st BImSchV 56 https://www.kommission-wsb.de/WSB/Navigation/DE/Home/home.html
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5.5 Further options for action - PM2.5
Retention of the requirements of the 1st BImSchV for solid fuel boilers which go beyond the
provisions of the EU Regulation (EU) 2015/118957 can make a contribution, according to current
activity rate projections and an underlying worst-case appraisal of the consequences of the EU
regulation in the With Measures Scenario (WM), of almost 3 kt to necessary additional reduction.
The combination of measures described in Chapter 5.2 in relation to road transport and the 44th
BImSchV can also contribute to the reduction of direct PM2.5 emissions.
A successive phasing out of coal-fired power generation for achieving climate protection targets
also makes a contribution to the reduction of direct PM2.5 emissions. The activity rate
development in the With Measures Scenario of the Projection Report 2017 creates an additional
reduction of almost 2 kt and thus leads in combination with the other options for action to
meeting the reduction commitment in the NEC Directive from 2030 for PM2.5.
Furthermore, in relation to the air quality targets and local pollution, incentives can also be put
in place for using low-emission fuels in private households. In relation to the strong link between
demand and price, an incentive effect can thus be achieved.
5.6 Further options for action - NH3
The ammonia emissions forecast in the With Measures Scenario do not comply with the
reduction commitment in the NEC Directive from 2030 and the linear reduction path to 2020. As
in the projections for both 2020 and also 2030, almost 95 % of ammonia emissions are
generated by the agriculture source group, short-term, medium-term and long-term reduction
measures are urgently necessary.
The package of measures represented here comprises individual measures interacting with one
another. For example, an emissions reduction in stabling and storage leads for example to
additional nitrogen being produced with agricultural fertilisers and thus can create additional
ammonia emissions on farmland and pasture. Such interaction is taken into account in the
calculation. The reduction potentials entered in the table are in each case the additional effect of
the measure under the assumption that all previously listed measures have already been
implemented. If a measure were to be adapted or erased, this would have an impact on the
predicted effect of the measures following in the table.
The basis of the calculations is the Thu nen Report 56 from 2018 with the agricultural economics
projections for Germany (Thu nen-Baseline 2017 – 2027).
The sum of the reduction contributions depends upon the nature of the implementation. It may
be that incentive measures are not sufficient. In order to achieve the contributions listed in the
table; (Sub-) legislative regulations may consequently be necessary.
57 https://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/EN/TXT/PDF/?uri=CELEX:32015R1189&from=EN; retrieved on
02/07/2018.
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Table 33: Further options for action in the agriculture source group and their additional reduction potential in comparison with the With Measures Scenario (WM)
2005 2020 2025 2030
Total ammonia emissions according to emissions reporting for 2018
NH3 kt 625
* without emissions from plant-based fermentation residues
NH3 kt 614*
NEC Directive Reduction Commitment NH3 % -5 % -29 %
total ammonia emissions permissible (according to emissions reporting 2018)
NH3 kt 583* 513 444
WM projections for total ammonia emissions using the Thünen baseline projection (Thünen Report 56)
NH3 kt 560* 575 570
Remaining additional necessary reduction in comparison with baseline
NH3 kt -61 -126
Ammonia reduction measures
Further reduction potential in
comparison with baseline
kt
Baseline
Urea is incorporated within four hours or stabilised with urease inhibitors
DüV (2017) Already assessed at
the baseline
No use of wide-spreading devices for liquid agricultural fertilisers on cultivated farmland or pasture
Incorporation of poultry manure on uncultivated farmland within four hours
Package of further
options for action
No use of wide-spreading devices on uncultivated farmland
Law relating to fertiliser**or
incentive measures
-3 -6
Immediate incorporation (< 1 h) of liquid agricultural fertiliser on uncultivated farmland
-7 -6
Immediate incorporation (< 1 h) of solid agricultural fertiliser on uncultivated farmland
-5 -16
Non-covered outdoor storage for slurry/fermentation residues are covered at least with foil or comparable technology Non-legislative
emissions control
regulations (here: TA-Luft
draft, status: 16 July 2018) or
incentive measures
-4 -8
N-reduced animal feed with 20 % emissions reduction with reduced N-excretion in stabling subject to approval under BImSchG (G and V plants/ >lower BImSchV limit), pigs and poultry
-3 -16 70% emissions reduction in stabling subject to approval under BImSchG (G plants pigs and poultry without turkeys = upper BImSchV limit) e.g. through exhaust air purification
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further systematic measures (40% emissions reduction) in stabling subject to approval under BImSchG (V plants pigs and poultry = lower BImSchV limit)
Slurry neutralisation in stabling and storage
Slurry cooling
Downsizing of the slurry channel
Measures for rapid separation of urine and faeces in stables
Rubber inserts in running surfaces
Urease inhibitors in stables
Spreading of liquid agricultural fertiliser on cultivated farmland and pasture only with injections/incision technology or neutralisation by means of addition of acid
Law relating to fertiliser**or
incentive measures
-16 -48
50 % of underfloor storage of slurry is replaced by outdoor storage at least with foil covering
Non-legislative regulation or
incentive measures
-1 -2
5 % reduction of N-excretion through optimised, N-adapted animal feed for cows
Non-legislative regulation or
incentive measures
-5 -9
System-integrated measures in stabling and storage for cows (from 100 cows, 25 % emissions reduction)
-4 -9
Reduction of overall balance surplus by 20 kg N/ha (reduction of deductible losses, reduction of use of synthetic N-fertilisers)
Law relating to fertiliser**or
incentive measures
-12 -13
Reduction effect of the package of further options for action (**with
exemptions for small and micro-businesses) -60 -133
Additional options for
action
UAN N-fertiliser Application with urease inhibitor
Law relating to fertiliser, incentive measures
The package of further options for action leads to, under the given assumptions, the necessary
reduction in comparison with the With Measures Scenario up to the year 2030 of 126 kt. The
calculation of reduction potential in 2025 took place under different assumptions in relation to
the technical feasibility and proportionality of the individual measures, through which the
necessary reduction of around 60 kt can be achieved.
For the following reasons, it is necessary that the coordinated measures package provides a
buffer to the additional emission reduction necessary to reach the reduction commitment. In this
regard, possibilities for targeted promotion of emission-reducing measures should also be
tested.
Uncertainties of the Thu nen Baseline Projection
o Development of milk production
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o Development of application quantities of synthetic N-fertilisers
o Development of a proportion of urea-based fertilisers into synthetic N-fertilisers
o Displacement effects with agricultural fertiliser spreading through provisions of
amended fertiliser ordinance
o Development of the amount of plant-based fermentation residues
o Number of farms which receive exemptions from an agency determined by the
competent Federal State authority to low-emission spreading of liquid
agricultural fertilisers on cultivated farmland or pasture (Fertiliser Ordinance §6
Paragraph 3 Sentence 4 and 5)
o Exceedances of the incorporation deadlines for agricultural fertilisers on
uncultivated farmland of four hours due to the non-passability of the soil
resulting from unforeseeable weather events (Fertiliser Ordinance §6 Paragraph
1 Sentence 2).
Uncertainties regarding the proportion of farms which will have the best available
techniques under the current stipulations by 2030.
Predefined exemptions for agricultural small and micro-enterprises pursuant to
Annex III Part 2 Section C of the NEC Directive, specific to each measure, for farms
smaller than 50 livestock units and with less than 20 ha agricultural land.
Furthermore, in bringing together the options for action, consideration was given to effective
emission reduction along the processing chain, to synergies with climate protection objectives
and to a no-deterioration rule for N-entries into the soil in relation to the objectives for reducing
nitrate pollution.
The acidification of slurries and fermentation residues prior to application or in stables and
storage is currently being extensively discussed in Germany. The methods for acidification of
slurry already used in stables promise high reduction potential and are, according to the BAT
conclusion (EU) 2017/302, the Best Available Technique. An assessment process was carried out
pursuant to the criteria of the European Industrial Emissions Directive (IED) 2010/75/EU.
However, the legal implementation in Germany must be tested.
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5.7 Reduction potential of further options of action
Table 34: Further options for action for reaching reduction commitments and their additional reduction potentials in comparison with the With Measures Scenario (WM)
Reduction potentials of further strategies and measures in the field of climate protection in accordance with PR 2017-WFMS and r2B scenario 65 % renewable energy and coal phase-out
With-Measures Scenario based on reference projections for climate protection (PR 2017, WFMS) kt -17.2 -17.8 -1.5 -1.1 -24.6 -26.6 -2.0 -1.6
WSB Commission recommendation according to r2B projection in the energy industries sector kt -24.7 -29.6 -0.7 -0.4 -1.3 -32.3 -34.8 -0.9 -0.5 -1.5
Reduction potentials of further options for action and measures under implementation relating to air pollution control policy (building on PR 2017-WFMS and r2B scenario 65 % renewable energy and coal phase-out)
Current version of 44th BImSchV kt -17.8 -0.2 -31.2 -0.2 -0.1
Fuel switching or waste gas cleaning in the field of industrial furnaces kt -8.6 -8.2
Amendment of 13th BImSchV for selected fuels other than coal kt -2.0 -2.1
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5.8 Further information for measures in the field of agriculture
Table 35: Additional information relating to measures from Annex III Part 2 of Directive (EU) 2016/2284 in the agricultural sector Table 2.6.4. of Implementing Decision (EU) 2018/1522
Measure included in the programme?
Are there deviations from the guidelines? If yes, which modifications have been carried out?
Measures for limiting NH3 emissions: The Member States set out good agricultural practice for reducing ammonia emissions from national recommendations for good agricultural practice from the year 2014, comprising at least the following points: a) nitrogen management, taking into account the whole nitrogen cycle; b) livestock feeding strategies; c) low-emission spreading of slurry; d) low-emission slurry storage; e) low-emission animal housing systems; f) possibilities of limiting ammonia emissions from using mineral fertilisers.
The updating of good specialist practice happens continually. The brochures for describing good specialist practice for reducing ammonia emissions from agriculture are currently being updated58.
The Member States prohibit the use of ammonium carbonate fertilisers
Currently not relevant in Germany
If necessary, adapting legislation
Preventing negative impact on agriculture small and micro-enterprises When carrying out the aforementioned measures, the Member States ensure that the impact on small and micro-enterprises is taken into account to its full extent. Member States may, for instance, exempt small and micro-enterprises from those measures where possible and appropriate in view of the applicable reduction commitments.
Chapter 5.6
58 Brochures under review.
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6 Strategies and measures (including timetable for adopting measures, implementation and success monitoring and competent agency)
6.1 Report on the strategies and measures selected for implementation (including competent agency)
All options for action included in Chapter 5 are necessary for achieving the reduction
commitments; only for NOx and SO2 is there a slight buffer. The implementation of measures
takes place generally by means of legislation on a federal level and enforcement on a regional
level. Overall, the measures forming part of existing household and financial planning principles
in the departments (including jobs and positions) are implemented subject to the availability of
the necessary budgetary resources.
6.2 Assessment of consistency with plans and programmes in other policy fields
The strategies and measures that have been selected in the National Air Pollution Control
Programme for achieving the reduction commitments of Directive (EU) 2016/2284 in some
cases have considerable synergy effects with other political fields.
There is a particularly high level of consistency with the policy field of climate change, as the
emission of atmospheric pollutants correlates in many cases with the emission of climate gases.
In the field of climate protection, the federal government is currently preparing the first
measures programme for implementing the climate protection plan 2050. A successive reduction
of coal-fired power generation will contribute both in the measure programme in climate
protection and also in the National Air Pollution Programme to the respective targets/reduction
commitments.
The assessments in this programme are based on the projections of the Projection Report 2017.
This is the most recently published official GHG projection of the German government. The
reference developments of GHG emissions in the draft of the integrated National Energy and
Climate Plan (NECP) are provisional. A corresponding draft of the NECP has been sent to the
European Commission. The final version of the NECP will be sent by the end of 2019.
It is to be assumed that for the final version of the NECP, an energy scenario is generated taking
into account the recommendations of the WSB Commission or any existing decision of the
German government for implementing these regulations. In the present report, consideration
has already been given to the impact of an energy scenario as an option for action which
quantifies the effect of an earlier phasing-out of coal-fired electricity on atmospheric pollutants
than that assumed in the WFMS in the Projection Report 2017.
Plans and programmes relating to agricultural policy also have a considerable impact on
emissions development, in particular ammonia emissions. The further development of the EU
Common Agricultural Policy and its implementation in Germany sets the framework conditions
for emissions themselves and also for the eligibility of emission reduction measures.
There are further synergies of selected measures in the National Air Pollution Control
Programme, in particular with plans and programmes in the fields of health, biodiversity, water,
nitrogen and sustainability. Examples are:
the national action programme for protection of bodies of water against pollution caused
by nitrates,
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the action programme for insect protection (under review),
the livestock strategy,
the farming strategy (under review),
the action programme for integrated nitrogen reduction (under review) and
the German sustainability strategy.
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7 Report on emission projection, development of air quality and on the impact on the environment in the NEC compliance scenario for meeting reduction commitments (WAM - With Additional Measures)
7.1 Emission projection to 2030 and assessment of emission reduction in comparison to 2005 in the NEC Compliance Scenario (WAM)
Tables 36ff. show the provisional results per pollutant in the With Measures Scenarios (WM) and
NEC compliance (WAM) for 2025 and 2030. Additionally, in the projection year 2020 the NEC
Compliance Scenario (WAM) has additional reductions in comparison with the With Measures
Scenario (WM), these are however not relevant for meeting the reduction commitment. In the
With Measures Scenario (WM), after 2020 there are shortfalls in meeting the reduction
commitments of the NEC Directive and the designated linear reduction path (cf. Article 4 of the
NEC Directive and § 3 of the 43rd BImSchV). In total, with the combination of activity rate
development according to the WFMS of the Projection Report 2017 (cf. Chapter 5.1) and the
options for action quantified in Chapters 5.2 to 5.6, the reduction commitments of the NEC
Directive are met in the NEC Compliance Scenario (WAM). The results are set out in colour
according to compliance with the reduction commitments. For the projection year 2025, the
results are represented in cursive.
The NEC Compliance Scenario (WAM) comprises the following options for action.
a) Climate protection measures in the WFMS of the Projection Report 2017
b) Phasing out of power generation using hard coal and lignite in accordance with
recommendations from the “Growth, Structural Change, Employment” Commission.
c) National implementation of the MCP Directive (EU) 2015/2193 pursuant to the
Resolution of the German government of 18 March 2019, expected to come into force
from July 2019
d) Retention of the regulation for solid fuel boilers under the 1st BImSchV
e) Road transport measures package – environmental bonus and software update for cars,
hardware retrofitting for buses, promoting an environmental alliance, updating of CO2
limits for cars
f) Agriculture measures package (cf. Chapter 5.6)
g) If necessary, promote a switch of fuels used in industrial production to low-sulphur fuels
or more efficient technologies for waste gas cleaning
h) Only if urgently necessary to meet the reduction targets for NOX to 2030: Amendment of
13th BImSchV for selected fuels other than coal
It is generally assumed that all further measures will show reduction effects from 1 January
2025 at the latest and their implementation will accordingly be completed beforehand.
As already demonstrated in the previous chapters, the German government is currently
preparing a legislative procedure to govern the phasing out of power generation using hard coal
and lignite. Decisions regarding phasing-out are not expected before the end of the year 2019. As
the phase-out path will also have a considerable impact on the emissions of atmospheric
pollutants, the German government will take the phase-out path actually decided upon as a basis
when reviewing the National Air Pollution Control Programme.
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According the current status, the implementation of the WSB Commission recommendations
should have particular impact on the measures necessary to meet reduction commitments for
the atmospheric pollutants NOX and SO2.
Table 36: Projected emissions development in NEC Compliance Scenario (WAM)
Reduction potentials of further strategies and measures in the field of climate protection in accordance with PR 2017-WFMS and r2B scenario 65 % renewable energy and coal phase-out
Reduction potentials of further options for action and measures under implementation relating to air pollution control policy (building on PR 2017-WFMS and r2B scenario 65 % renewable energy and coal phase-out)
Table 37: Emissions projection for NOX (as NO2) in the NEC Compliance Scenario (WAM)
Source groups (aggregated)
NOX (as NO2)
2005 Application
2020 2025 2030
kt kt kt kt
1 Energy 1 353.0 739.8 564.5 418.8
A. Fuel combustion activities 1 351.9 738.7 563.4 417.7
1 Energy industries 289.1 232.7 206.2 144.2
2 Manufacturing industries 103.3 68.2 58.6 53.1
3 Transport 806.5 333.8 212.8 149.5
of which: road transport 738.1 284.1 167.9 110.3
4 Other combustion plants 142.0 99.6 82.0 67.4
of which: commerce, trade, services 34.6 27.1 23.1 19.8
of which: residential 67.2 49.7 44.2 40.5
5 Military and other minor sources 11.0 4.5 3.9 3.5
B. Fugitive emissions from fuels 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.1
1 Solid fuels 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.7
2 Oil and gas 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4
2 Industrial processes 106.3 87.5 86.4 84.0
A. Mineral products 44.8 31.4 31.2 30.6
B. Chemical industry 29.6 29.8 29.6 28.9
C. Production of metal 27.9 22.2 21.6 20.5
D. Use of non-energy products 0.9 0.6 0.6 0.6
G. Other production manufacturing and use 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4
H. Other production (cellulose and paper manufacture, foodstuffs and beverages)
2.7 3.0 3.0 3.0
I. Wood-processing industry
L. Handling of bulk materials
3 Agriculture 118.0 128.1 128.3 128.3
B. Manure management (stabling and storage) 2.1 2.0 2.0 2.0
D. Agricultural soils (fertiliser spreading) 115.8 126.0 126.2 126.2
I. Storage of fermentation residues from energy plants 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1
5 Waste and wastewater treatment 0.3 0.6 0.6 0.6
B. Biowaste treatment
C. Waste incineration 0.3 0.6 0.6 0.6
D. Wastewater treatment
E. Other areas
National total of source groups for which reporting is obligatory 1577 956 780 632
Total source groups for which reduction is obligatory 1459 830 653 506
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Table 38: Emissions projection for NMVOC in the NEC Compliance Scenario (WAM)
Source groups (aggregated)
NMVOCs
2005 Application
2020 2025 2030
kt kt kt kt
1 Energy 361.1 218.1 197.9 180.6
A. Fuel combustion activities 274.8 144.8 124.6 107.3
1 Energy industries 11.3 9.3 8.9 6.8
2 Manufacturing industries 10.3 6.0 5.6 5.1
3 Transport 177.7 72.5 59.3 47.8
of which: road transport 174.6 70.3 57.2 45.8
4 Other combustion plants 71.6 54.8 49.1 46.2
of which: commerce, trade, services 4.5 2.7 2.0 1.5
of which: residential 42.6 47.8 43.3 41.3
5 Military and other minor sources 3.8 2.1 1.7 1.5
B. Fugitive emissions from fuels 86.3 73.3 73.3 73.3
1 Solid fuels 3.0 3.4 3.4 3.4
2 Oil and gas 83.3 69.8 69.8 69.8
2 Industrial processes 758.6 580.9 582.3 595.3
A. Mineral products 2.5 2.6 2.6 2.6
B. Chemical industry 5.4 5.1 5.1 5.1
C. Production of metal 5.4 5.0 4.9 4.7
D. Use of non-energy products 720.4 543.3 544.8 558.1
G. Other production manufacturing and use 2.6 2.3 2.3 2.3
H. Other production (cellulose and paper manufacture, foodstuffs and beverages)
16.3 18.5 18.5 18.5
I. Wood-processing industry 5.9 4.1 4.1 4.1
L. Handling of bulk materials
3 Agriculture 203.1 206.7 204.6 202.5
B. Manure management (stabling and storage) 193.9 195.9 193.8 191.6
D. Agricultural soils (fertiliser spreading) 9.2 10.8 10.8 10.9
I. Storage of fermentation residues from energy plants
5 Waste and wastewater treatment 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2
B. Biowaste treatment
C. Waste incineration 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
D. Wastewater treatment 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1
E. Other areas
National total of source groups for which reporting is obligatory
1323 1,006 985 979
Total source groups for which reduction is obligatory 1121 799 781 776
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Table 39: Emissions projection for SO2 (as SO2) in the NEC Compliance Scenario (WAM)
Source groups (aggregated)
SOx (as SO2)
2005 Application
2020 2025 2030
kt kt kt kt
1 Energy 381.3 184.5 131.1 91.5
A. Fuel combustion activities 377.2 181.3 128.0 88.4
1 Energy industries 250.6 135.6 99.0 66.3
2 Manufacturing industries 44.2 27.3 18.4 14.2
3 Transport 13.2 1.8 1.7 1.6
of which: road transport 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.7
4 Other combustion plants 68.9 16.5 8.8 6.3
of which: commerce, trade, services 15.7 3.8 1.8 1.0
of which: residential 51.5 9.1 4.8 3.8
5 Military and other minor sources 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0
B. Fugitive emissions from fuels 4.0 3.1 3.1 3.1
1 Solid fuels 1.1 1.0 1.0 1.0
2 Oil and gas 2.9 2.1 2.1 2.1
2 Industrial processes 91.7 80.7 71.1 69.6
A. Mineral products 17.6 19.8 16.5 16.3
B. Chemical industry 26.3 19.9 19.1 19.0
C. Production of metal 45.2 39.1 33.6 32.3
D. Use of non-energy products 1.7 1.2 1.2 1.2
G. Other production manufacturing and use 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1
H. Other production (cellulose and paper manufacture, foodstuffs and beverages)
0.8 0.6 0.6 0.6
I. Wood-processing industry
L. Handling of bulk materials
3 Agriculture
B. Manure management (stabling and storage)
D. Agricultural soils (fertiliser spreading)
I. Storage of fermentation residues from energy plants
5 Waste and wastewater treatment 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1
B. Biowaste treatment
C. Waste incineration 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1
D. Wastewater treatment
E. Other areas
National total of source groups for which reporting and reduction are obligatory
473 265 202 161
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Table 40: Emissions projection for NH3 in the NEC Compliance Scenario (WAM)
Source groups (aggregated)
NH3
2005 Application
2020 2025 2030
kt kt kt kt
1 Energy 28.0 15.0 13.5 11.9
A. Fuel combustion activities 28.0 15.0 13.5 11.9
1 Energy industries 2.8 1.8 1.7 1.4
2 Manufacturing industries 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.7
3 Transport 21.6 10.7 9.8 8.9
of which: road transport 21.4 10.6 9.7 8.8
4 Other combustion plants 2.8 1.6 1.2 0.9
of which: commerce, trade, services 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.4
of which: residential 2.0 1.0 0.7 0.5
5 Military and other minor sources 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
B. Fugitive emissions from fuels 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
1 Solid fuels 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
2 Oil and gas
2 Industrial Processes 13.7 12.5 12.5 12.4
A. Mineral products 2.9 1.9 1.9 1.9
B. Chemical industry 9.2 9.3 9.2 9.2
C. Production of metal 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1
D. Use of non-energy products
G. Other production manufacturing and use 1.5 1.3 1.3 1.3
H. Other production (cellulose and paper manufacture, foodstuffs and beverages)
I. Wood-processing industry
L. Handling of bulk materials
3 Agriculture 580.7 582.3 484.8 408.6
B. Manure management (stabling and storage) 269.4 267.5 248.4 217.4
D. Agricultural soils (fertiliser spreading) 310.1 311.7 234.2 190.4
I. Storage of fermentation residues from energy plants 1.2 3.1 2.1 0.9
5 Waste and wastewater treatment 2.7 3.5 3.5 3.5
B. Biowaste treatment 2.7 3.5 3.5 3.5
C. Waste incineration
D. Wastewater treatment
E. Other areas
National total of source groups for which reporting is obligatory
625 613 514 436
Total source groups for which reduction is obligatory (only for 2020)
614 560
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Table 41: Emissions projection for PM2.5 in the NEC Compliance Scenario (WAM)
Source groups (aggregated)
PM2.5
2005 Application
2020 2025 2030
kt kt kt kt
1 Energy 93.2 53.3 45.1 40.2
A. Fuel combustion activities 92.1 52.3 44.2 39.2
1 Energy industries 10.7 6.7 5.9 4.1
2 Manufacturing industries 4.6 2.2 1.4 1.1
3 Transport 46.2 21.7 20.2 19.5
of which: road transport 36.2 16.0 14.6 14.1
4 Other combustion plants 30.2 21.6 16.5 14.4
of which: commerce, trade, services 2.2 1.0 0.6 0.4
of which: residential 20.5 18.6 14.7 13.1
5 Military and other minor sources 0.5 0.1 0.1 0.1
B. Fugitive emissions from fuels 1.1 1.0 1.0 1.0
1 Solid fuels 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0
2 Oil and natural gas 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
2 Industrial processes 31.7 25.3 25.2 25.0
A. Mineral products 5.5 4.3 4.3 4.2
B. Chemical industry 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3
C. Production of metal 6.5 2.8 2.8 2.6
D. Use of non-energy products 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1
G. Other production manufacturing and use 7.6 7.3 7.3 7.3
H. Other production (cellulose and paper manufacture, foodstuffs and beverages)
0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2
I. Wood-processing industry 1.0 0.7 0.7 0.7
L. Handling of bulk materials 10.2 9.5 9.5 9.5
3 Agriculture 4.5 4.6 4.6 4.5
B. Manure management (stabling and storage) 3.9 4.0 3.9 3.9
D. Agricultural soils (fertiliser spreading) 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7
I. Storage of fermentation residues from energy plants
5 Waste and wastewater treatment 5.6 5.7 5.7 5.7
B. Biowaste treatment
C. Waste incineration 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
D. Wastewater treatment
E. Other areas 5.6 5.7 5.7 5.7
National total of source groups for which reporting and reduction are obligatory
135 89 81 75
7.2 Description of the uncertainties linked to the WAM projection
In order to estimate the sensitivity of the results illustrated in Chapter 5 and 7.1 in the NEC
Compliance Scenario (WAM) the following uncertainty reports have been carried out on the
impact of different energy scenarios on NOx emissions as an example.
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For provisional assessment of the recommendations of the “Growth, Structural Change,
Employment” Commission, the fuel inputs in the r2B-scenario of August 2018 ‘Objective
reaching scenario with 65 % renewable energy and coal action’ for the energy sector have been
used as a basis. The assumptions in the remaining source groups have been retained in
accordance with the WFMS of the Projection Report 2017.
The following uncertainties arise for quantification of emissions of atmospheric pollutants:
- Amount of total power required: There are uncertainties inter alia regarding power
required for the transport sector and power required for heat supply to buildings (heat
pumps in connection with new technologies) and personal need for power generation.
- Covering the power requirement from national and international sources (import-export
balance) / price development of energy carriers: Depending on the price development of
energy carriers, in the scenarios either higher electricity import or higher domestic
production coupled with higher exports are assumed. Which energy carriers are used to
generate energy in each case depends upon the level of projected emissions in Germany
and abroad. Additionally, should the actual overall power requirement increase over the
current projection, the market price is likewise the deciding factor regarding energy
carriers and capacities in Germany and abroad to be used to cover any shortfall in supply.
- Expansion of capacities in the field of low-emission renewables (wind, PV, water,
(geothermal energy)): Should the expansion of low-emission renewables not meet the
targets in place up to 2030, the above-mentioned uncertainties determine which energy
carriers will cover any gap in supply.
- Distribution of power generation among energy carriers in the different plant categories:
As currently the question remains open as to the sequence in which plants using hard
coal and lignite should be taken off the grid, a sequence different to assumptions may
arise due to decisive emissions factors of the plants or a change in emission reduction.
The assessable uncertainties according to the present data set are in accordance with the
aforementioned factors with a maximum (added up):
- Overall power requirement: ± 4 kt NOX in 2030
- Import-export balance: ± 3 kt NOX in 2030
- Proportion of renewables: ± 5 kt NOX in 2030
- Distribution of power generation per energy carrier in the different plant categories
(with different emissions factors): ± 7 kt NOX in 2030
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7.3 Description of the projected improvement in air quality in the NEC Compliance Scenario (WAM)
Table 42 shows the average difference of annual averages per grid cell of the hourly background
concentrations of selected pollutants modelled on the NEC Compliance Scenario (WAM) for 2005
and 2030.
For NO2, SO2, PM10 and PM2.5, and ozone, there are relatively small differences to the With
Measures Scenario. Reference is also therefore made for the evaluation of the map
representation to the explanatory text in Chapter 4.2. The ammonia concentration, in contrast to
the model results in the With Measures Scenario (WM), falls. The difference between the
difference maps in WM and WAM is thus clear in the case of ammonia. The drop is primarily due
to reduced emissions from keeping livestock and spreading agricultural fertiliser and thus is
more marked in regions with high numbers of livestock in north-west and south-east Germany
than in other regions. In the extreme south-west of Germany, a slight increase in the annual
average of ammonia concentrations is modelled, which is presumably due to the steeply
decreasing NOX emissions in this region and the therefore possibly limited binding partners for
secondary particulate matter build-up.
The current calculations do not allow conclusions to be drawn about the development of total
local NO2 pollution, as only background pollutants have been modelled and no small-scale
modelling has been carried out. For stations which in 2005 were more than 7 µg/m³ over the
annual limit for NO2 of 40 µg/m³, future compliance can only be estimated using high-resolution
hot-spot modelling, taking into account the impact of national measures on additional local
pollution and other specifically local developments, such as for example the predicted fleet mix
for a region.
Table 42: Difference of modelled annual average of background concentrations under the same meteorological conditions for 2005 and 2030 in the NEC Compliance Scenario (WAM)
Pollutant absolute difference of annual averages 2005 and 2030 in µg/m³
NO2 -6.7
ozone +4.7
NH3 -0.8
SO2 -1.3
PM10 -5.4
PM2.5 -5.6
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Image 36: Difference of the EURAD model runs WAM-2030 – 2005 for NO2 in µg/m³ under the same meteorological conditions
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Image 37: Difference of the EURAD model runs WAM-2030 – 2005 for SO2 in µg/m³ under the same meteorological conditions
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Image 38: Difference of the EURAD model runs WAM-2030 – 2005 for NH3 in µg/m³ under the same meteorological conditions
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Image 39: Difference of the EURAD model runs WAM-2030 – 2005 for PM2.5 in µg/m³ under the same meteorological conditions
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Image 40: Difference of the EURAD model runs WAM-2030 – 2005 for O3 in µg/m³ under the same meteorological conditions
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Image 41: Result of the EURAD-model runs 2005 – WAM-2030 for the number of days of exceedance of the O3 target under the same meteorological conditions
7.4 Projected impact on the environment in the NEC Compliance Scenario (WAM)
The modelled background deposition falls in the NEC Compliance Scenario in comparison to
2005 for all compounds investigated across the area average at an annual average between 20
and 66 %. The results must be validated with other model comparisons and are therefore to be
considered as provisional.
Table 43: Model results for dry and wet deposition in the NEC Compliance Scenario (WAM) and difference in relation to 2005
2005
NEC Compliance Scenario
2030
Dry deposition Average deposition Absolute difference Relative difference
kg/(ha . a) kg/(ha . a) kg/(ha . a) %
NOX 1.2 0.4 -0.8 -66
SO2 1.3 0.7 -0.6 -49
NH3 2.6 1.9 -0.7 -25
Wet deposition
NO3 3.3 1.9 -1.4 -43
SO4 3.9 3.1 -0.8 -20
NH4 5.1 3.8 -1.3 -24
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