Nataliia Kussul, Andrii Shelestov, Sergii Skakun, Oleksii Kravchenko Space Resarch Institute NASU-NSAU, Ukraine Forecasting winter Forecasting winter wheat yield in wheat yield in Ukraine using 3 Ukraine using 3 different approaches different approaches
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Nataliia Kussul, Andrii Shelestov, Sergii Skakun, Oleksii Kravchenko Space Resarch Institute NASU-NSAU, Ukraine Forecasting winter wheat yield in Ukraine.
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• Cross-validation– leave-one-out cross-validation (LOOCV)– using a single observation from the original sample
as the testing data, and the remaining observations as the training data
• Criteria– RMSE on testing data
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Zone Av. Eff.Plane Polissya 1.182Forest-Steppe 1.576Steppe 1.883
Oblast DOY RMSE EffVolyn Oblast 193 3.284 1.015
Zhytomyr Oblast 97 2.898 1.598Zakarpattia Oblast 97 4.777 0.967
Ivano-Frankivsk Oblast 193 2.771 1.22Lviv Oblast 113 2.486 0.993
Rivne Oblast 97 3.411 1.214Chernihiv Oblast 97 3.366 1.267Vinnytsia Oblast 97 5.405 1.114
Kiev Oblast 97 4.083 1.616Poltava Oblast 129 4.286 2.09Sumy Oblast 145 3.758 1.766
Ternopil Oblast 97 3.914 1.214Kharkiv Oblast 129 3.846 2.443
Khmelnytskyi Oblast 49 3.868 1.421Cherkasy Oblast 129 6.473 1.35Chernihiv Oblast 97 3.366 1.267
Dnipropetrovsk Oblast 145 5.302 2.048Donetsk Oblast 129 4.41 1.871
Zaporizhia Oblast 129 3.797 1.947Kirovohrad Oblast 129 4.506 2.324Luhansk Oblast 129 4.189 1.829Mykolaiv Oblast 129 4.086 2.116Odessa Oblast 129 5.321 1.589Kherson Oblast 129 3.927 1.796
Crimea 129 1.809 1.424
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Meteorological modelMeteorological model
• A non-linear model for winter wheat yield forecasting that incorporates climatic parameters was built for the Steppe agro-climatic zone.
• To model the relationship between crop productivity (in particular winter wheat) and main climatic parameters– Maximum temperature– Minimum temperature– Average temperature– Precipitation– Soil moisture
• 0-20 cm depth• Available for months: Sept, Oct, Apr, May, June
• Methodology– Correlation analysis– Linear multivariate regression– Non-linear multivariate regression