NAT Flight Efficiencies Flight Dispatch North Atlantic (NAT) 2030 - Vision Workshop Paris, France, 29-30 January 2019 Sergey Vakhrushev EVP- North Atlantic, North America Nominee to NAT SPG [email protected], [email protected]Slides Courtesy Air Canada NAT2030 PR08
28
Embed
NAT Flight Efficiencies Flight Dispatch Meetings Seminars... · NAT Flight Efficiencies Flight Dispatch North Atlantic ( NAT) 2030 - Vision Workshop Paris, France, 29-30 January 2019
This document is posted to help you gain knowledge. Please leave a comment to let me know what you think about it! Share it to your friends and learn new things together.
Transcript
NAT Flight Efficiencies Flight Dispatch
North Atlantic (NAT) 2030 - Vision Workshop Paris, France, 29-30 January 2019
Sergey Vakhrushev EVP- North Atlantic, North America
» Introduction- Role of Dispatch in the NAT Landscape
» Problem & Changes ….’then and now’
» Impact of the problem
» Todays OTS
» Case Studies
» Short Term Improvements
» A way forward
» Recommendations
2
Dispatcher - Definition of Duties Definition of Duties defined in ICAO Ann.6 Part I - Ch.4 Flight Operations
–Normal Ops: A flight operations officer/flight dispatcher in conjunction with a method of control and supervision of flight operations (in accordance with 4.2.1.3) shall: a) assist the pilot-in-command in flight preparation and provide the relevant information; b) assist the pilot-in-command in preparing the operational and ATS flight plans, sign when applicable and file the ATS flight plan with the appropriate ATS unit; and c) furnish the pilot-in-command while in flight, by appropriate means, with information which may be necessary for the safe conduct of the flight.
-Emergency: a) initiate such procedures as outlined in the operations manual while avoiding taking any action that would conflict with ATC procedures; and b) convey safety-related information to the pilot-in-command that may be necessary for the safe conduct of the flight, including information related to any amendments to the flight plan that become necessary in the course of the flight.
Presenter
Presentation Notes
Knowledge includes Air Law - Flight Performance calculations, p[lanning procedures, Loading Human Performance (Dispatch duties- trhreat & error management) Meteorology Navigation & Radio Navigation Operational Proceudres (AIP, Dangerous goods, Procedures related to aircraft accidents, incidents, emergencies), unlawful interference, sabotage etc. - Principles of Flight (and each category) Radio Communication (voice & Data) Ann.6 Ch.3 Responsibility “3.1.3 An operator or a designated representative shall have responsibility for operational control. “ Ann.6 Ch.4 includes AOC, Ops Manual,
Assignment of Duties Assignment of Duties – Ann.6 Ch.10 » Operator specific Training » Qualification flight » Demonstration of knowledge to Operator
Ops. Manual Radio equipment (COM & SUR) NAV Equipment
» Demonstration of knowledge to Operator for areas of responsibility & individual authority to exercise flight supervision Seasonal MET phenomena Effects of MET conditions on radio reception Peculiarities & limitations of each NAV system used Aeroplane Loading instructions
» Demonstration of knowledge & skills related to human performance relevant to Dispatch duties
» Demonstration of ability to perform duties
Dispatch in the NAT
» Two drivers to airline Flight Efficiencies 1. Get the Plan Right!
• Optimized Flight Planning- Airlines & the ATM System 2. Fly the Filed Plan
• Traffic Management/Collaborative Decision Making
» Flight Planning Principles contained in ICAO Doc 007 Guidelines have changed little over the years – no
more MTTs Previous ICAO efforts starting 2002, to….
• Improve coordination between EUR-NAM-NAT ANSPs • ‘One stop’ shop to understand a myriad of restrictions • Build a fuel-efficient daily OTS. Improve/change PRM process
» Flow Management Voice of the Customer, tactical CDM Post flight data analytics to measure performance
The Airline world today
6
Don’t bring me problems – bring me solutions!! But how do I know what the solution is unless I have the data?
• Airspace utilization- OTS vs Random, Number of Tracks, Splits etc.
• Domestic interfaces (NARs and structure)
• CDM process – pre tactical and tactical
• Post flight metrics & 360 analysis
Opportunities for Change PLANNING: OTS Design Improvements
» The Investment • Right tools for OTS design to model ‘end-to-end’ 4D trajectories • That take into account:
» Individual Aircraft-type Performance Capability » Dynamic upper winds, temperatures, ISA deviation » ATS rules of flight –including Notams & restricted areas, rules of air (FL
availability) » SIGWX, hurricanes, volcanic ash, turbulence etc » Smoothing algorithm to balance demand/capacity. Heuristics to map time
flows
9
» The Outcome • The most optimal airspace design in time, lateral coverage,
flight level utilization » The lowest fuel burn » Minimal number of core tracks (and half-tracks) » Flexible time window validity for daily OTS » Remove NARs » Accommodate ‘business trajectories’ of random traffic (lateral, FLs,
above OTS, ‘wrong’ direction’ above OTS » Post operational 360 review on Plan vs Actuals using Lateral,
Speed, Level filings
What is the opportunity worth?
10
One minute of flight time saving per flight per day is worth USD$39.7M per annum and >170M Kgs/CO2 emissions savings – Data sample (Eurocontrol) Jun 11-19 2018
» Today with a quantum leap in technology the same aircraft
operate in the same airspace Eastbound and Westbound » Yet, ANSPs have different tools, data sources and
`methodology to design the OTS
Todays OTS is not an optimal solution and airline costs are increasing
Airlines started sending PRMs back in the 70s to support design of the OTS when core traffic was between NE EUR and NE USA & Canada with B707s, DC8s B747-100, L10s, DC10s.
» Opportunities; Cost Index iso Fixed Mach Step climbs Split tracks constrain thousands of miles of airspace Fixed NARS Lack of effective CDM
Case Study - Westbound OTS 12 July
13
• Split Tracks • Min Cost Track LHR-JFK - South
• Looked at TDA • Very little traffic on southerly tracks • Where is the core traffic going?
• NATS build OTS from airline PRMs - only 6 or 7 received • UK Met Office D-1 prediction for select city pairs • Controller experience
• Difference between PRMs and actual traffic flow – not new ! • But why the difference? • Hurricane Chris off East Coast US?
• How many other days like this – we don’t know? • The answers are in the data and effective CDM but… • ANSPs/Airlines do not have tools or resources to do post
operational data analysis
Time to use the years of available data and predictive analytics to design the OTS
Case Study - Eastbound OTS 02 Jul
14
• Nav Can build OTS from airline PRMs - only 6 or 7 received • Canadian Met Office data • MTTs from GAATS select city pairs • Controller experience
• 12 Eastbound tracks ! • Three split tracks to the North with 2 degree separation –
results in at least 5 tracks – constrains 1000s miles of airspace • Majority of traffic used the N tracks with very little traffic on
the core tracks to south – why? • Only 19 flights on 3 tracks from NY – why?
• This scenario happened on consecutive days – why? How many other days like this –we don’t know
• The answers are in the data and effective CDM but… • ANSPs/Airlines do not have tools or resources to do post
operational data analysis Same story – OTS tracks should come from one single entity and associated post
operational data analysis should come from same data sources
results in continued outdated processes and lack of data driven solutions
• What's missing?
17
UAL - How can this happen?
Short Term Improvements – Start NOW !
» Revisit NARs in Canadian and US Airspace
» Augment and improve TDA to improve CDM Immense amount of intelligence & answers latent in 15 years of data Improve user interface Make available on mobile devices Use data to review track occupancy rates, by time, by aircraft type, city
pair etc etc
» Why do we need lower flights levels on the OTS? Westbound 6th June 1 flight @ FL310 and 1 @ FL320 Westbound 7th June 0 flights @ FL310
Flight level occupancy issue was tabled by IATA to NAT IMG in 2005 Start trials
» Why do we need OTS in the Nav Can/Greenland ADS-B
corridor and Iceland/UK areas
19
A way forward….
4D Optimal Trajectory
Global Airline Schedules
Aircraft Performance
NOTAMS
Weather
ANSP Constraints
ARINC 424
20
NAT OTS
Polar Routes
PACOTS
Business Intelligence analytical tools make it relatively easy to support planning decisions based on rules based scenarios
» We need to know city pair flows,
core route trajectories and timings
» Accurate aircraft performance models
» Accurate weather data » Shared and transparent ANSP
constraints – demand and capacity scenarios
» Published Tracks where operationally beneficial – time/altitude/geography
The future is data science ( AI ) – predictive analytics from data mining, statistics and modelling to predict where the tracks should be – guess work/assumptions not required
Recommendations » Include Dispatcher-related flight planning aspects into the core planning elements under
the NAT 2030 vision goals. » SPG leadership under a one system approach and multi-disciplinary inputs from all
stakeholders to develop an implementation plan (including funding) that supports the required paradigm shift to allow a data driven NAT OTS design and improved CDM solutions that are available to all stakeholders
» Consider a collaborative process sponsored by the NAT SPG and supported by strategic guidance from the members of the NAT IMG with technical and regional contributions from the ANSPs under the auspices of the Procedures & Operations Group (POG)
» A centralized data warehouse is required where business analytics for pre-flight and post flight study becomes the new planning norm.
» Build capability to model 4D trajectories using dynamic flight parameters such as individual aircraft performance, NOTAMs, restricted airspace, significant weather and upper meteorological influences in producing a combined array of 4D flight trajectories ‘of the day’ in an end-to-end fashion.
» Subsequent activities prior OTS finalization would necessarily include mechanisms for Dispatchers to pro-actively participate in a CDM process. The CDM dialog would also provide insights into capacity balancing requirements and any ATM Flow and Capacity requirements
» Criteria and technology solutions developed as above should be harmonized for use in global ATM and flexible track planning.