NASA Science Mission Directorate Presentation to the Board of Physics & Astronomy Dr. Edward Weiler, Associate Administrator April 23, 2010
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NASA Science Mission DirectoratePresentation to the Board of Physics & Astronomy
Dr. Edward Weiler, Associate Administrator
April 23, 2010
2
3
Upcoming Launches
4
2/16/10Total Missions / Spacecraft
84 / 98
Formulation
12 / 12
Implementation
15 / 18
Primary Ops
19 / 19Extended Ops
38 / 49
JPL
2
GSFC
7
JPL
6
JPL
8
JPL
12/15
GSFC
8/12
GSFC
7
GSFC
24/32
MSFC
2
MSFC
2
DFRC
1/0
SMAP
OCO-2
ICESat-II
IRIS
Solar Orbiter
Solar Probe +
GEMS
Astro H
MAVEN
NuSTAR
ST-7
Aquarius
MSL
JUNO
GRAIL
JWST
LDCM
GPM
Glory
NPP
SET-1
RBSP (2)
MMS (4)
SOFIA(1/0) WISE
Herschel
Planck
OSTM~
Rosetta
DAWN
EPOXI*
NExT*
Fermi
Aura
TWINS-A
CINDI
TWINS-B
IBEX
SDO
MESSENGER
New Horizons
GALEX
Spitzer
Cloudsat
ACRIMsat
GRACE (2)
Jason-1
Voyager (2)
Mars Express
Mars Odyssey
MER (2)
Cassini
MRO
HST
Suzaku
Integral
RXTE
WMAP
XMM
SWIFT
Aqua
SORCE
EO-1
Terra
TRMM
Landsat 7~
THEMIS (5)
STEREO (2)
AIM
Cluster-2 (4)
Chandra
Hinode
RHESSI SOHO
TIMED TRACE
WIND ACE
GEOTAIL
Astrophysics
Earth Science
Heliophysics
Planetary Science
Italics = US instruments on foreign mission
X / Y = # of missions / # of spacecraft
* New missions for Deep Impact and Stardust,
respectively
~ Operated by another agency
SOFIA is a mission but does not add
spacecraft
MSFC
3
In concept development/pre-formulation:
JDEM, SIM-Lite, LISA, Con-X, Mars 2016/ExoMars,
Mars 2018, OPF, CLARREO, DESDynI, GRACE FO,
SAGE III
LaRC
1
CALIPSOLADEE
NF-3
Strofio
NOAA Reimbursable:
GOES-R, Jason-3 (pre-formulation)
ARC
1
Kepler
5
GRACE DETECTS UNSUSTAINABLE GROUNDWATER LOSS
Observed trends in groundwater levels, October, 2003 – March, 2009
Pattern of groundwater depletion in NW
India
Drawdown by 31 km3
(= 1 Lake Mead)
in 66 months
Famiglietti et al., 2009
Loss of 109 km3
(3 Lake Meads)
over 72 months
Rodell et al., 2009
Water Storage Anomaly
6
Two Views of Crackling Sunspot Producing First M-class Flares of the New Solar Cycle
Sunspot #1041 crackled with solar activity. In a few days, it produced five M-class flares.
The ongoing sequence of flares signals a sharp upturn in solar activity. Before January 17, 2010, the last time the Sun produced even a single M-class solar flare was in March 2008--almost two years ago. M-class solar flares effect the Earth. Mainly, they boost the ionization of Earth's upper atmosphere and disturb the propagation of terrestrial radio signals. In this case, there was a greater than 2000 times increase over a quiet Sun. This flare also caused a geomagnetic event.
This sunspot emerged over the Sun's southeastern limb…Stay tuned…this is only the beginning!
Image on left from the STEREO Behind spacecraft shows flare in progress from vantage point trailing Earth’s position by 70 degrees.
Image on left from SOHO spacecraft shows flare in progress from vantage point at L1 point (1.6 million kilometers from Earth on Sun-Earth line).
STEREO
SOHO
7
Martian Ice Found Just below the Surface
• Fresh small impact craters show:
• Ice layer ~0.5 – 1m below surface
• Sublimates over several weeks
• Spectral analysis shows ~99% pure water
• Ice more extensive than expected from current climate
• Mars had a wet history
35m
88 days
50 days
43.3° N 164.2° E
46.2° N 188.5° E
8
Early Science Results from Kepler and WISE
NASA's Kepler space telescope, designed to find Earth-
size planets in the habitable zone of sun-like stars, has
discovered its first five new exoplanets, or planets beyond
our solar system. The new exoplanets are named Kepler 4b,
5b, 6b, 7b and 8b.
The new exoplanets range in size from similar to Neptune
to larger than Jupiter, and are known as "hot Jupiters"
because of their high masses and extreme temperatures.
They have orbits ranging from 3.3 to 4.9 days. Estimated
temperatures of the planets range from 2,200 to 3,000
degrees Fahrenheit, hotter than molten lava and much too
hot for life as we know it. All five of the exoplanets orbit stars
hotter and larger than Earth's sun.
The discoveries are based on approximately six weeks'
worth of data collected since science operations began on
May 12, 2009.
NASA's Wide-field Infrared Survey Explorer, or WISE, has
captured its first look at the starry sky that it will soon begin
surveying in infrared light.
The infrared image was taken shortly after the space
telescope's cover was removed, exposing the instrument's
detectors to starlight for the first time. The picture shows
about 3,000 stars in the Carina constellation.
Launched on Dec. 14, WISE will scan the entire sky for
millions of hidden objects, including asteroids, "failed" stars
and powerful galaxies. WISE data will serve as navigation
charts for other missions, such as NASA's Hubble and
Spitzer Space Telescopes, pointing them to the most
interesting targets the mission finds.
9
The WISE Sky Survey is Underway
WISE began its
9-month sky
survey on 14 Jan
2010
9
WISE launched
14 Dec 2009
First Light Image in the constellation Carina3.4, 4.6,12 & 22 microns
Previously unknown
near-Earth Object
Be 59 star forming region
Comet Siding Spring
M31 - stars
3.4 microns
M31 - dust
12 and 22 microns
1012/18/09 – 100% Door Open Flight Test
James Webb Space Telescope
12
SMD FY11 Budget Strategy
• Be responsive to the science community by supporting the priorities established in the NRC Decadal Surveys.
• All missions should be chosen through Decadal Surveys or competitive peer review
• Responsive to national priorities, such as OCO-2
• Per usual SMD practice, each Theme manages within its existing budget envelope, with the exception of minor near-term zero-sum trades (rephasing) to address pressing issues.
• Projects in development are budgeted to a LCC reflecting a 70% cost confidence (CL) or, more conservatively, a joint-cost-and-schedule confidence (JCL) level.
• SMD is actively refining the cost ranges for projects in formulation to improve budget estimates as these projects make their way through Phases A and B.
13
SMD Budget by Theme (RY $M)
$0
$500
$1,000
$1,500
$2,000
$2,500
$3,000
$3,500
$4,000
$4,500
$5,000
$5,500
$6,000
FY2009 FY2010 FY2011 FY2012 FY2013 FY2014 FY2015
Heliophysics
Earth Science
Astrophysics
Planetary Science
Change
FY10-15
Science $4,903.1 $4,493.3 $5,005.6 $5,248.6 $5,509.6 $5,709.8 $5,814.0 $1,320.7 29%
Heliophysics * $607.8 $627.4 $641.9 $647.6 $679.8 $704.4 $750.8 $123.4 20%
Astrophysics $1,304.9 $1,103.9 $1,076.3 $1,109.3 $1,149.1 $1,158.7 $1,131.6 $27.7 3%
Planetary Science $1,288.1 $1,341.3 $1,485.7 $1,547.2 $1,591.2 $1,630.1 $1,649.4 $308.1 23%
Earth Science $1,702.3 $1,420.7 $1,801.7 $1,944.5 $2,089.5 $2,216.6 $2,282.2 $861.5 61%
* includes future Astro Explorers
14
SMD Total Budget Trace ($M)
FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15
FY10 President's Budget 4903.0 4477.2 4747.4 4890.9 5069.0 5185.4 5256.1
OCO-2 171.0 91.0 51.0 13.0 4.0
Climate Initiative 150.0 309.0 449.0 587.0 646.0
Near Earth Object Observations 16.0 16.0 16.0 16.0 16.0
Reductions for Agency issues (CM&O, etc.) -35.1 -54.1 -71.1 -87.1 -103.4
IT Infrastructure: transfer without impact -3.3 -4.2 -4.3 -4.5 -4.7
CoF transfers -40.4
FY10 Appropriation (net of all changes) 16.1
FY11 President's Budget 4903.0 4493.3 5005.6 5248.6 5509.6 5709.8 5814.0
15
Astrophysics Program Content
FY09 FY10 * FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15
FY11 President's Budget 1,304.9 1,103.9 1,076.3 1,109.3 1,149.1 1,158.7 1,131.6
Astrophysics Research 136.0 147.7 156.1 178.1 188.4 194.6 199.6
Research and Analysis 60.0 60.0 60.2 64.7 65.8 67.4 69.1
Balloons 25.6 26.7 27.1 32.4 32.7 35.3 36.8
ADCAR / ADP / Senior Review / Admin 50.4 61.1 68.7 80.9 89.8 91.9 93.7
Cosmic Origins 850.0 686.3 687.7 669.4 667.5 640.5 599.2
James Webb Space Telescope 466.9 440.3 444.8 379.2 335.2 259.3 119.2
HST 203.1 112.6 102.7 104.5 99.8 98.0 98.6
SOFIA 77.4 72.8 79.6 80.1 79.2 81.1 81.3
Spitzer 61.7 27.1 22.6 14.0 0.3
SR&T 3.2 5.2 7.0 10.1 11.5 12.5 15.0
Herschel 17.2 23.0 24.5 24.0 20.8 15.8 5.8
Future Missions/Servicing/Management 20.5 5.3 6.5 57.6 120.8 174.0 279.3
Physics of the Cosmos 111.1 115.8 103.3 114.4 151.7 176.4 202.0
Fermi (GLAST) 13.2 22.2 22.7 25.9 25.5 25.1 25.1
Planck 6.4 8.9 8.1 6.5 6.5 3.0 0.8
Chandra / INTEGRAL / XMM 69.7 64.8 59.4 59.0 59.3 59.7 59.8
SR&T 2.8 4.3 5.6 9.8 11.7 13.0 15.0
JDEM 8.5 4.4
LISA, IXO, Future and Management 10.5 11.1 7.5 13.2 48.7 75.6 101.3
Exoplanet Exploration 72.1 46.2 42.5 54.1 83.0 93.8 117.6
Kepler 31.7 20.1 16.9 19.1 13.8 0.2
SIM 20.0 2.0
Keck/LBTI 3.7 5.3 4.1 3.2 3.3 3.4 3.5
SR&T 11.0 13.3 12.7 16.3 17.8 18.2 18.8
Future Missions/Management 5.7 5.6 8.8 15.5 48.0 72.0 95.4
Astrophysics Explorer 135.7 107.9 86.7 93.3 58.5 53.3 13.2
WISE 69.2 13.0 6.8 2.7 0.2
NuSTAR 38.7 59.9 32.1 10.8 6.2
Astro-H 6.4 10.9 12.5 7.0 7.4 12.6 11.1
GEMS 1.7 21.0 57.7 44.7 40.8 2.1
Operating Explorers 19.6 24.0 14.4 15.1
* FY10 Enacted Budget 15
16
Astrophysics Budget Changes
FY10-14
FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 Total
Changes from FY10 Budget -17.0 2.2 66.6 22.7 19.1 93.6
GEMS transfer from Helio 21.0 57.7 44.7 40.8 164.2
JWST 59.7 24.5 -0.5 -0.5 83.2
HST / SOFIA / Astro-H / WISE 9.5 19.1 13.9 17.6 60.1
Fermi / Chandra / Keck / Kepler -0.8 7.8 16.4 7.5 30.9
Future Missions / SR&T / Mgmt -10.4 -76.6 -54.1 -51.1 -47.6 -239.8
All other -6.6 -10.7 11.5 -0.6 1.4 -5.0
17
FY2011 Budget Request: Astrophysics
• Fund missions in development phase, including JWST, SOFIA,
NuSTAR, Astro-H, and GEMS
• Reflect results of Senior Review for Operating Missions, scheduled for
April 2010, in support of missions in extended science phase during
FY2011 and beyond
• Respond to decadal survey results, due to be released late-summer
2010 (technology investments and Future Mission lines)• Engage in strategic technology investments and portfolio roadmapping
• Negotiate relevant interagency/international collaborations for future mission
initiatives
• Identify relevant mechanisms and schedule for selecting investigations based on
decadal priorities
18
FY2011 Budget Request: Heliophysics
• Enable a robust schedule of small, medium and flagship mission launches, funded to
a 70% confidence level, to achieve the vision for heliophysics set forth in the 2003
NRC Decadal Survey.
• Develop and launch SDO and RBSP, the first 2 missions in the LWS Program, with
the goal of creating a predictive capability for space weather.
• Continue formulation and development of MMS, the number 1 priority moderate class
mission and Solar Probe Plus, the number 1 priority large class mission in the
decadal survey.
• Preserve the availability of Explorer Program missions to provide frequent, low cost
flight opportunities that target focused science topics and fill important science gaps in
Heliophysics and Astrophysics.
• Based on the FY2010 Senior Review, continue to fund existing mission operations to
achieve maximum science return.
• Maintain robust Research Program (including competitively selected science
investigations, suborbital program, supporting research and technology and science
data archiving and computing) and E/PO Program.
• Develop cutting edge research Space Weather Models and make available to NOAA,
DoD, and NASA operational space weather groups.
19
FY2011 Budget Request: Planetary Science
• Pursue partnership with ESA for Mars Program & OPF based on shared interests and common goals
• Accommodate new liens without mission cancelations/delays:
• MAVEN ELV
• MSL launch vehicle acceleration and added funding for the 2011 LRD to resolve MSL technical problems with the actuators, avionics and the titanium
• Prepare for potential rebalancing of priorities based on the Planetary Science Decadal Survey coming in 2011
• Ensure specific technology programs can support expected future missions (e.g.: ASRG, NEXT etc.)
• Maintain Planetary R&A program and operating missions
20
FY2011 Budget Request: Earth Science
• Present infusion enables significant mission accelerations and program expansions
• OCO-2 development and launch by 2/2013
• Accelerates selected Decadal Survey systematic missions, launching all 4 Tier-1 missions between 2014 and 2017
• Expands and accelerates Venture-class competitive, PI-led program
• ANNUAL solicitations for major flight instruments PLUS biannual alternating airborne and small-mission solicitations
• First small-sat selections in 2012
• Develops selected Climate Continuity Missions• SAGE-III refurbishment/hexapod development, ready for flight to ISS late CY2013
• GRACE-FO (GRACE Follow-on), launch late CY2015 (joint with DLR)
• Enables key non-flight activities
• With US Global Change Research Program, identifies and enables additional selected Tier-2 Decadal Survey missions to be developed for flight in 2019-2020 time frame
21
NASA Science Mission Launches (Fiscal Years 2009-19)
�WISE
SOFIA*
�SDO
GOES-P
2010
International Mission
with Substantial NASA
Contribution
Joint NASA - International
Partner Mission
Reimbursable
for NOAA
2011
Glory
NPP
Juno
GRAIL
Aquarius
20132012
NuSTAR
RBSP
LWS SET-1
IRIS
MSL
ST-7
LDCM
OCO-2
LADEE
GPM Core
As of 3/23/10
For planning purposes only
2014
• = Early science flights begin
�= Mission successfully launched
Red Text = new or accelerated in FY11 Budget Request
NASA Mission
on US ELV
SMAP
MMS
GOES-R
2015
Discovery-12
EX-1
ICESat-2
GRACE FO
ESA/NASA
Mars 2016
2016 2017
SAGE III
MAVEN
GEMS
JWST
Astro-H
Venture 2
GOES-S
Solar Orbiter
2018
CLARREO-1
DESDynI
Venture MoO
New Front 3
Solar Probe +
EX-2
Astro-1
NASA/ESA
Mars 2018
2019
ES Tier 2-1
Venture MoO
2020
JEO
EX-3
CLARREO-2
Venture MoO
ES Tier 2-2
22
22
Back-up Charts
23
FY2010 Enacted Budget
Line items in the FY10 Astrophysics budget, as passed by Congress
TOPIC Funding ($M)
Astrophysics Research 150.8
Research & Analysis 60.0
Balloon Project 26.7
Other Missions & Data Analysis 64.1
Cosmic Origins 667.2
Hubble Space Telescope 112.6
James Webb Space Telescope 441.4
SOFIA 72.8
Other Missions & Data Analysis 40.4
Physics of The Cosmos 147.7
JDEM 6.4
Other Missions & Data Analysis 141.3
Exoplanet Exploration 46.2
Other Missions & Data Analysis 46.2
Astrophysics Explorers 107.9
WISE 13.0
NuSTAR 59.9
Astro-H 10.9
Other Missions & Data Analysis 24.1
Total Astrophysics 1119.8
*General Reduction* (SMD-wide) -59.2
23
24
FY2011 Budget Request: Astrophysics
Fully funds JWST for launch in summer 2014.
Fully funds SOFIA towards Full Operational Capability by 2014.
Operates Hubble and other operating missions.
Fully funds Explorer missions NuSTAR and Astro-H/SXS (with JAXA) for launches in 2012 and 2014, respectively.
Supports newly selected GEMS Explorer mission for launch in 2014.
Awaiting NRC decadal for new priorities in Astrophysics beyond current missions.
24
25
Astrophysics: What’s Changed and What’s the Same
What changed:Augment SOFIA and JWST cost reserves towards 70% JCL.NuSTAR LRD Jan 2012 (external Agency commitment, project working to earlier
delivery date) reflects 70% JCL.Astro-H LRD projected to be Feb 2014.Gravity and Extreme Magnetism Small Explorer (GEMS) selected as a SMEX for
launch in 2014.Kepler funding augmentation to Phase E budget (more robust ground follow-up,
lessons learned from COROT; image artifact mitigation)Herschel/Planck launched May 2009, now in routine science ops.HST SM4 launched May 2009, on-orbit check out complete Sept 2009. All new
and repaired systems performing at or above expectations.Rebalanced Future Missions lines and reallocated funds to support Senior
Review results, strategic technology.R&A, suborbital payloads allocated steady funding at FY10 levels.Missions & grant programs adjusted (re-phased) to reduce unobligated/uncosted
carryover.What’s the same:LISA, JDEM, IXO (International X-ray Observatory), and SIM/SIM-Lite
continuations depend on results of Astro2010 decadal surveyJWST launch in June 2014Reach SOFIA Full Operational Capability in 2014
25
Astrophysics R&A Funding History
26
27
Projections for Supporting Research & Technology
27
pale blue = “core” Research & Analysis items from previous slide
FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15actual enacted FY11 President's Budget Request
Cosmic Origins SR&T 3.2 5.2 7.0 10.1 11.5 12.5 15.0
Tech, core+competed 0.6 1.9 5.0 6.3 7.2 9.6
Fellows 3.2 4.6 5.1 5.1 5.2 5.3 5.4
Physics of the Cosmos SR&T 2.8 4.3 5.6 9.8 11.7 13.0 15.0
Tech, core+competed 0.9 1.8 5.8 7.7 8.8 10.6
Fellows 2.8 3.4 3.8 4.0 4.0 4.2 4.4
Exoplanet Exploration SR&T 11.0 13.3 12.7 16.3 17.8 18.2 18.8
Tech, core+competed 7.3 10.2 9.3 12.5 14.0 13.5 13.9
Fellows 3.7 3.1 3.4 3.8 3.8 4.7 4.9
BALLOON PROJECT 25.6 26.7 * 27.1 32.4 32.7 35.3 36.8
ASTROPHYSICS RESEARCH & ANALYSIS 60.0 60.0 * 60.2 64.7 65.8 67.4 69.1
Rocket and MoO payloads 6.0 5.9 5.8 6.3 6.4 6.5 6.6
Balloon payloads 17.3 16.8 16.7 17.9 18.2 18.7 19.2
Detectors, technology 18.0 17.6 17.4 18.7 19.0 19.5 20.0
Lab astrophysics 3.0 2.9 2.9 3.1 3.2 3.3 3.4
Ground-based observing 3.0 2.9 2.9 3.1 3.2 3.3 3.4
Astrophysics theory 11.2 12.4 13.1 14.1 14.2 14.6 15.0
Program support, other 1.5 1.5 1.4 1.5 1.6 1.6 1.6
Astrophysics Data Program 14.7 13.3 14.5 17.8 19.3 19.8 20.3
ADCAR: data archives 10.9 19.6 20.8 20.0 19.8 19.9 20.9
Total research and analysis 128.2 142.4 147.9 171.1 178.6 186.1 195.9
* Congressional line items
28
Astrophysics Division - Science Mission Directorate
28
29
Astrophysics FY2010 President's Budget and
Estimates for 2011 - 2023
0.0
200.0
400.0
600.0
800.0
1,000.0
1,200.0
1,400.0
1,600.0
FY07
FY 0
8
FY 0
9
FY 1
0
FY 1
1
FY 1
2
FY 1
3
FY 1
4
FY 1
5
FY 1
6
FY 1
7
FY 1
8
FY 1
9
FY 2
0
FY 2
1
FY 2
2
FY 2
3
Fiscal Year
$M
Future Missions
Form, Dev & Op
Missions
Mission Enabling
Program Mgmt &
Other
• Assumed operating missions beyond 2016 include JWST, SOFIA
• HST De-orbit mission development ramps up ~2020
• “Future Missions” wedge would be used for new mission initiatives, R&A/technology augmentations, extended missions, etc.
• The amount of “Future Missions” funding available between 2013 – 2020 is ~$4B
Astrophysics: Budget forward look
29
30
• Assumed operating missions beyond 2016 include JWST, SOFIA; plus HST, Chandra, Fermi, etc. (e.g., Astro-H)
• HST De-orbit mission development ramps up ~2020
• “Future Missions” wedge is for strategic missions recommended by the Astro2010 decadal survey
• The amount of “Future Missions” funding available between 2013 – 2020 in such a scenario would be ~$2.3B
Astro2010 Decadal Survey – Notional Forward Look
30
31
SMD Practices Conform to the Highest Standards of Scientific Integrity
“…Finally, agencies are expected to conduct programs in accordance
with the highest standards of ethical and scientific integrity and to have
clear principles, guidelines, and policies on issues such as scientific
openness, scientific misconduct, conflicts of interest, protection of
privacy, and the appropriate treatment of human subjects.”
32
Astrophysics Division Missions
Update in progress
Current status
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