NASA Research and Research Missions: Addressing Space Weather Hazards

NASA Research & Research Missions:

Addressing Space Weather Hazards

Michael HesseChief, Space Weather Laboratory

NASA GSFC

49th Robert H. Goddard Memorial Symposium

- More than you imagine -

March 31, 2011

Elements of Space Weather Forecasting

• Knowledge (Research)

• Data/information

• Models

• Dissemination

NASA plays key role in all aspects

• Launch Dec. 2, 1995

• Prime solar observatory at L1

SOHO (NASA/ESA)

Present Missions: STEREO

• Launch Oct. 25, 2006

• Instruments operating normally

• Providing beacon data

• At 2015 at opposite side of Sun

SunEarth

Ahead @ +22o/year

Behind @ -22o/year

Geocentric Solar Ecliptic CoordinatesFixed Earth-Sun Line

(Ecliptic Plane Projection)

1 yr.

2 yr.

3 yr.4 yr.

1yr.

2yr.

3 yr.4 yr.

STEREO Orbits

STEREO A

SOHO, SDO

STEREO B

Solar Dynamics Observatory

• SDO launched February 23, 2010

• Geosynch orbit• Key research and space

weather platform

Present Missions: ACE

• Launch Aug. 25, 1997

• Prime Solar Wind information source

• Almost full RT coverage

• Radiation Belt Storm Probes launch date: May 18, 2012

• 2 S/C, 5.8RE apogee, 600km perigee, 10 degree inclination

• 2 year nominal mission lifetime• The RBSP Space Weather (SW)

broadcast will be a transmission like those on ACE and STEREO.

• Ground processing for SWx products will be provided by receiving organization(s).

Future Missions: RBSP

Forecast model development at NASA

NASA, together with partner agencies, such as NSF, AFOSR, and ONR, sponsors the development of models, which:

• Contribute to resolving scientific puzzles

• Model solar eruptions

• Predict their impacts

• Predict space environment consequences

Modeling

• These models run at GSFC’s Space Weather Laboratory in support of

- Research

- Education

- Model testing and validation

- SWx forecasting for NASA’s robotic missions

- Other national needs

Space Weather Laboratory at GSFChttp://swl.gsfc.nasa.gov

CME Forecasting, April 3, 2010 Event

CME detection

STEREO-behind

STEREO-ahead

SOHO

Parameters used to start forecasting models

Availablesince 2006

April 3 CME model/forecast

Expected impact:13:30Z April 5

Solar energetic particle forecasts

Solar Energetic Particle Forecast model (A. Posner)

Solar Energetic Particle Forecast model (M. Nunez, U. Malaga)

RBSP Data Source for Assimilative Radiation Belt Model (DREAM)

Measured HEO Fluxes

Modeled HEO Fluxes

Data Assimilation Model

GEO & GPS & Polar Observations

R. Friedel/LANL

Ionosphere/Communication

Neutral Atmosphere

Drageffects

Heating Rate

19

Geomagnetically induced current (GIC)

Solar Shield:Protecting the Power Grid

Level 1 forecasts

20 April 3, 2008

NASA observations of explosions on the Sun drive modern model calculations. SOHO and STEREO data used.

Model propagates the disturbance to the Earth through interplanetary space. Computations carried out at the Space Weather Laboratory.

Model output at the Earth used in a statistical model tp provide probabilistic estimate for GIC at individual nodes of the power grid. GIC forecast file is generated.

21 April 3, 2008

NASA ACE Lagrange 1 observations used as boundary conditions for magnetospheric model.

Magnetospheric model used to model the current flow in the Earth’s upper atmosphere. Computations carried out at the Space Weather Laboratory at GSFC.

Model output used to drive geomagnetic induction and GIC code providing GIC at individual nodes of the power grid. GIC forecast file is generated.

Coupling to the SUNBURST research support tool

22

% Level 1 GIC forecast produced by REALTIMEGIC_LEVEL1%% The format of the data is as follows: % 0 0 0 0 0 lat1 lon1 lat2 lon2 . . .% yy mm dd hh mi GIC1low GIC1high GIC2low GIC2high . . .% 0 0 0 0 53.16 -99.29 45.39 -68.532006 12 14 14 6 76 15 153

% Level 2 GIC forecast produced by REALTIMEGIC_LEVEL2% % The format of the data is as follows: % 0 0 0 0 0 0 lat1 lon1 lat2 lon2 . . .% 0 0 0 0 0 0 53.16 -99.29 45.39 -68.532008 03 19 11 02 31 -0.11 0.00 0.13 0.00 2008 03 19 11 04 31 0.02 0.00 0.03 0.00 2008 03 19 11 06 31 -0.02 0.00 0.04 0.00 2008 03 19 11 08 31 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.00

Unique and innovative capability

iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov

Innovative disseminationOne-stop shop for state-of-the-art information

> 200 SWx Tools Flexible to adapt to changing model (and data) environment

User-configurable web-based system for analyzing space weather. Includes the most comprehensive list of SW data products and modeling results

- In the field SWx capability

- Enable “citizen scientist”

- Soon for Android

Conclusions

NASA SMD missions and priorities are driven by scientific objectives, including the goal to understand Space Weather

NASA missions can, do, and will provide substantial and critical space weather information

With the growing use of assimilative models, ingestion of NASA-provided data streams can create invaluable input into space science and space weather models

NASA is proud of its contributions to real-time Space Weather forecasting, and we look forward to working with the partner agencies in the future.