© 2004 Nanotechnology & Society: Times of Change Mike Treder Executive Director Center for Responsible Nanotechnology Sao Paulo, Brazil October 18, 2004
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© 2004
Nanotechnology & Society: Times of
ChangeMike Treder
Executive DirectorCenter for Responsible Nanotechnology
Sao Paulo, Brazil October 18, 2004
© 2004
Graphing HistoryDoes history (the record of human change) occur in a straight line?
Time
Change
© 2004
Graphing HistoryNo, it is a series of steps.
Time
Change
© 2004
Spoken LanguageWritten Language
Printing PressSteam Power
Graphing HistoryNo, it is a series of steps.
(Prehistory)
Time
Change
© 2004
Industrial RevolutionThe last two centuries have seen a series of steps we call the Industrial Revolution(s).
Time
Change
Steam Engines
Computers
RailwaysAutomobiles
(Middle Ages)
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Industrial RevolutionsFirstFirst RevolutionRevolution
(1780–1840) (1780–1840) Based in Based in United KingdomUnited Kingdom
Steam Engine Steam Engine Textile IndustryTextile Industry Mechanical EngineeringMechanical Engineering
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Industrial RevolutionsSecondSecond RevolutionRevolution
(1840–1900) (1840–1900) Based in Based in EuropeEurope – –
England, France, GermanyEngland, France, Germany RailwaysRailways Steel IndustrySteel Industry
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Industrial RevolutionsThirdThird RevolutionRevolution
(1900–1950) (1900–1950) Based in Based in United StatesUnited States
Electric Engine Electric Engine Heavy ChemicalsHeavy Chemicals AutomobilesAutomobiles Consumer DurablesConsumer Durables
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Industrial Revolutions
FourthFourth RevolutionRevolution (1950–Present) (1950–Present)
Based in Based in Pacific BasinPacific Basin – – California, JapanCalifornia, Japan
Synthetics Synthetics Organic Chemicals (Oil)Organic Chemicals (Oil) ComputersComputers
© 2004
Computers
Graphing HistoryEach industrial revolution marked a major change— a big step in social, political, and economic history.
Time
Change Automobiles
Railways
Steam Engines
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Graphing HistoryBut if we look more closely, we can see that these steps actually are s-shaped curves.
Time
Change
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Graphing HistoryBut if we look more closely, we can see that these steps actually are s-shaped curves.
Time
Change
© 2004
Graphing HistoryBut if we look more closely, we can see that these steps actually are s-shaped curves.
Time
Change
© 2004
Graphing HistoryBut if we look more closely, we can see that these steps actually are s-shaped curves.
Time
Change
© 2004
Societ
al
Impa
cts
Time
Industrial Revolutions
© 2004
The Next Industrial Revolution
FifthFifth RevolutionRevolution (2010? – ??) (2010? – ??)
Based in Developing World?Based in Developing World?China? India? Brazil? China? India? Brazil?
NanotechnologyNanotechnology Molecular ManufacturingMolecular Manufacturing
© 2004
Societ
al
Impa
cts
Time(Measured in decades)
Industrial Revolutions
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Societ
al
Impa
cts
Time(Measured in YEARS)
Molecular Manufacturing Revolution
© 2004
Societ
al
Impa
cts
Time
Accelerated Impacts
Industrial Revolutions
Molecular Manufacturing
Revolution
© 2004
Societ
al
Impa
cts
Time
The Next Big Step
Steam Engines
Computers
RailwaysAutomobiles
(Middle Ages)
© 2004
Societ
al
Impa
cts
Time
The Next Big Step
Steam Engines
Computers
RailwaysAutomobiles
(Middle Ages)
Nanotechnology
© 2004
Societ
al
Impa
cts
Time
Accelerated Impacts
Industrial Revolutions
Molecular Manufacturing
Revolution
© 2004
Societ
al
Impa
cts
Time
The Next Big Step
Steam Engines
Computers
RailwaysAutomobiles
(Middle Ages)
Nanotechnology
© 2004
Nanotechnology
Societ
al
Impa
cts
Time
The Next Big Step
Steam Engines
Computers
RailwaysAutomobiles
(Middle Ages)
© 2004
The combined impacts of nanotechnology will equal the Industrial Revolutions of the last two centuries — but with all that change compressed into just a few years.
Change is Coming
© 2004
The ability to build anything we can design, by manipulating molecules under direct computer control, will be a jolt to the system.
Jolt to the System
Molecular Mill image courtesy of Eric Drexler
© 2004
The ability to build anything we can design, by manipulating molecules under direct computer control, will be a jolt to the system.
Jolt to the System
Image by John Burch, Lizard Fire Studios
A transformative, disruptive, discontinuous jolt to ecological, economic, political, and social systems — on a local, national, and global scale.
© 2004
Nanotechnology is… Not just new products — a new means of production Manufacturing systems that make more manufacturing
systems — exponential proliferation Vastly accelerated product improvement — cheap
rapid prototyping Affects all industries and economic sectors — general-
purpose technology Inexpensive raw materials, potentially negligible capital
cost — economic discontinuity Portable, desktop-size factories — social disruption Impacts will cross borders — global transformation
© 2004
Inside a Nanofactor
y
© 2004
Benefits + Risks An automated, self-contained factory could provide...
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Benefits + Risks An automated, self-contained factory could provide...
Lifesaving medical robots or Untraceable weapons of
mass destruction
© 2004
Benefits + Risks An automated, self-contained factory could provide...
Lifesaving medical robots or Untraceable weapons of
mass destruction Networked computers
for everyone in the world
orNetworked cameras so
governments can watch our every move
© 2004
Benefits + Risks An automated, self-contained factory could provide...
Lifesaving medical robots or Untraceable weapons of
mass destruction Networked computers
for everyone in the world
orNetworked cameras so
governments can watch our every move
Trillions of dollars of abundance or A vicious scramble to
own everything
© 2004
Benefits + Risks An automated, self-contained factory could provide...
Lifesaving medical robots or Untraceable weapons of
mass destruction Networked computers
for everyone in the world
orNetworked cameras so
governments can watch our every move
Trillions of dollars of abundance or A vicious scramble to
own everything
Rapid invention of wondrous products or
Weapons development fast enough to destabilize any arms
race
© 2004
Benefits + Risks An automated, self-contained factory could provide...
Lifesaving medical robots AND Untraceable weapons of
mass destruction Networked computers
for everyone in the world
ANDNetworked cameras so
governments can watch our every move
Trillions of dollars of abundance AND A vicious scramble to
own everything
Rapid invention of wondrous products AND
Weapons development fast enough to destabilize any arms
race
© 2004
Innovation & Economy Not just new products — a new means of production Manufacturing systems that make more manufacturing
systems — exponential proliferation Vastly accelerated product improvement — cheap
rapid prototyping Affects all industries and economic sectors —
general-purpose technology Inexpensive raw materials, potentially negligible
capital cost — economic discontinuity Portable, desktop-size factories — social disruption Impacts will cross borders — global transformation
© 2004
Dangers Economic disruption from an abundance of cheap products Economic oppression from artificially inflated prices Personal risk from criminal or terrorist use Constant intrusive surveillance Oppression from abusive restrictions Social disruption from new products/lifestyles Unstable arms race leading to war Collective environmental damage from unregulated products Black market in molecular manufacturing (increases other
risks) Competing nanotechnology programs (increases other risks)
. . . and many more
© 2004
Rapid ProgressNucleic acid / protein engineeringNASA study on machine self-replicationSolution-phase artificial molecular
machinesTool fabrication process for diamond
mechanosynthesis Russian roadmapDrexler’s roadmapNanofactory design
© 2004
The Next Industrial Revolution
FifthFifth RevolutionRevolution (2010? – ??) (2010? – ??)
Based in Developing World?Based in Developing World?China? India? Brazil? China? India? Brazil?
NanotechnologyNanotechnology Molecular ManufacturingMolecular Manufacturing
© 2004
Nanotechnology Leadership
What it WILL NOT require:• Heavy industry• Scarce natural resources• Massive capital
© 2004
Nanotechnology Leadership
What it WILL require:• Highly educated scientists
and engineers• Long-term (5-15 years)
dedicated effort
© 2004
Nanotechnology Leadership
What it SHOULD require:• Openness• Cooperation
© 2004
What is Needed Now
Awareness of the issues
Technical research Policy research
CRNCRN
Thirty Essential Studies
Chris Phoenix, Director of Research
Center for Responsible Nanotechnology
Copyright 2004 Center for Responsible Nanotechnology Brooklyn, NY, USA
© 2004
www.Wise-Nano.org
A collaborative project to study the facts and implications of advanced nanotechnology — a website for researchers worldwide to work together, helping to build an understanding of the technologies, their effects, and what
to do about them.
© 2004
www.CRNano.org
Obrigado muito muito!
Mike TrederExecutive Director
Center for Responsible Nanotechnology
Email: [email protected]
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