Nano Material Volumes Applications Holman Lux Research

1Lux Research Inc. • 140 E. 45th Sti, 30th Floor New York, NY 10017 • +1 888 589 7373 www.luxresearchinc.com

Presented at the Presented at the ICON NanoEHS Research Needs Assessment on January 9, 2007 by Michael Holman, Senior Analyst+1 646 723 0161 • [email protected]



Presented at the ICON Nanomaterial Environmental Health and Safety Research Needs Assessment

January 9, 2007Michael Holman, Senior Analyst

Nanomaterial Forecast: Volumes and Applications



Agenda

• Overall economic impact of nanotech• Nanomaterial markets and applications• Publications, other considerations



Agenda




The nanotechnology value chainNanomaterials

Nanoscale structures in unprocessed

form

Nanoparticles, nanotubes, quantum dots, fullerenes, dendrimers, nanoporous materials…

Nanointermediates

Intermediate products with

nanoscale features

Coatings, fabrics, memory and logic chips, contrast media, optical components, orthopedic materials, superconducting wire…

Nano-enabledproducts

Finished goods incorporating

nanotechnology

Cars, clothing, airplanes, computers, consumer electronics devices, pharmaceuticals, processed food, plastic containers, appliances…

Nanotools

Atomic force microscopes, nanoimprint lithography equipment, nanomanipulators…

Capital equipment and software used to visualize, manipulate, and model matter

at the nanoscale



Sales of products incorporating nanotechnology, 2005 to 2014

$0

$500

$1,000

$1,500

$2,000

$2,500

$3,000

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Sales($ billions)

Nanomaterials Nanointermediates Nano-enabled products

Nanotechnology will impact $2.9 trillion worth of products across the value chain by 2014

Source: Lux Research Report “Sizing Nanotechnology’s Value Chain”

Forecast based on Lux Research’s value chain ontology, secondary research, and more than 100 interviews with executives, thought leaders, and academics. Projections were triangulated from bottom-up, top-down, analogical, and third-party market estimates, as well as advanced evolutionary models.



Example value chains for specific nano-enabled products

Clay nanoparticles

(Southern Clay Products)

Clay/poly-propylene

nanocomposite (Basell)

2004 ChevroletImpala(GM)

[None]MRAM

memory chip(Altis, Freescale)

Mobile phone (Nokia,

Samsung)

Nanomaterials NanointermediatesNano-enabled

products



Lux Research Reference Study “The Nanotech Report, 4th Edition”; Reports “How Industry Leaders Organize for Nanotech Innovation”; “Profiting from International Nanotechnology”; “Exits for Venture Capitalists in Nanotechnology Remain Elusive”

$0.32

$4.0

$3.6

$4.4

North America EuropeAsia Rest of world

US$ billions

By region$0.65

$5.3

$6.4

Government Corporate Venture capital

US$ billions

By source

Nanotechnology funding reached $12.4 billion worldwide in 2006



Agenda




Nanomaterials: Ceramic nanoparticles

• Market in 2005: $179 million• Market in 2010: $1.5 billion• Material costs: Dollars to thousands of

dollars per kilogram • Primary applications: Nanoclays for

structural composites; ZnO and TiO2 UV absorbers in cosmetics, plastics, and coatings; CeO, silica, et al. for CMP slurries; CeO for fuel catalysts; TiO2 for photocatalytic coatings, glasses, and filters; silica and alumina nanoparticles for coatings; various Li compounds for batteries; TiO2 in Grätzel solar cells

Nanoclays and nanoclay composites, used in automotive applications like the Hummer H2’s running boards



Nanomaterials: Metal nanoparticles

• Market in 2005: $89 million• Market in 2010: $770 million• Material costs: Tens to many thousands of

dollars per kilogram • Primary applications: Vast majority either

in antimicrobial nanosilver or in catalysis using particles of Pt, Pd, Ni, Co, Rh, etc.; also conductive layers in displays; printed electronics, esp. with Cu, Ag; sensors (SERS or plasmonics based); Al nanoparticles for “energetics” Silver nanoparticles used

for antimicrobial effect in wound dressings and consumer products



Nanomaterials: Nanoporous materials


dollars per kilogram • Primary applications: Vast majority in

aerogel materials (primarily silica) for insulation, as well as in optics, electronics, catalysis; polymers for separation media; polymers, silicon, or carbon for drug delivery systems; carbon, polymer, hydroxyapatite, etc. medical device coatings Silica aerogels insulators

used in applications from oil pipelines to apparel



Nanomaterials: Carbon nanotubes


dollars per kilogram • Primary applications: Substantial majority

by volume today and for foreseeable future in MWNTs for conductive and structural composites; emerging uses of SWNT composites and in memory, sensors, thermal management, conductive display layers, EMI/ESD coatings Single-walled nanotubes

are becoming realistic for memory chips in devices like cell phones



Nanomaterials: Nanostructured metals

• Market in 2005: $28 million• Market in 2010: $198 million• Material costs: Hundreds to many

thousands of dollars per kilogram • Primary applications: Hard coatings or

structural components in aerospace, automotive, pipelines, sporting goods; chromium-free anti-corrosive coatings

Nanostructured metals are tough but often brittle



Nanomaterials: Dendrimers

• Market in 2005: $12 million• Market in 2010: $42 million• Material costs: Hundreds to many

thousands of dollars per kilogram • Primary applications: Drug delivery,

therapeutics, and diagnostics; applications mooted in personal care, coatings, composites, inks, and adhesives

• Note: Dendritic NanoTechnologies expects orders of magnitude cost decreases with new synthesis techniques Dendrimers can

encapsulate actives or agents to enhance MRI contrast



Nanomaterials: Quantum dots

• Market in 2005: $4.3 million• Market in 2010: $38 million• Material costs: Thousands of dollars per

kilogram • Primary applications: Biolabels and in vitro

diagnostics; optoelectronic applications like LEDs, displays, solar cells; inks and paints for identification or brand protection

In vivo diagnostics with quantum dots is possible but still speculative due to safety concerns



Nanomaterials: Fullerenes

• Market in 2005: $2.5 million• Market in 2010: $60 million• Material costs: Thousands of dollars per

kilogram • Primary applications: Composites, mainly

for sporting goods; antioxidant additives for cosmetics; organic solar cell components; fuel cells; uses as lubricants and as novel therapeutics are mooted as well

Fullerenes’ electronic properties also make them strong anti-oxidants



Nanomaterials: Nanowires

• Market in 2005: <$1 million• Market in 2010: $16 million• Material costs: Thousands of dollars per

kilogram • Primary applications: Conductive layers for

displays; sensors; solar cells; logic devices

Nanowires can replace ITO layers in displays



Nanomaterials: Other important categories

• Polymer nanoparticles: Engineered nanoscale particles of latexes, urethanes, acrylics, etc. used or studied for coating and composite formulations by BASF, Arkema, DuPont, Rohm & Haas, et al.

• Drug nanoparticles and nanoscale reformulations:Coated nanoparticles of actives or encapsulation in liposomes, micelles, emulsion, etc., used in over $1 billion worth of drugs currently, and similar technologies are also widely applied to food and personal care

• Nanoscale films: Sub 100-nm layers of polymers, metals, ceramics which are self-assembled or deposited on surfaces from SC wafers to glass to fabrics



Agenda




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Peer-review ed

journalarticleson EHS

Carbon nanotubes Ceramic nanoparticles FullerenesMetal nanoparticles Molecular aggregates Other

Journal articles on EHS implications by nanomaterial

24%28%

13% 11%

15%9%

Total articles on EHS

Sources: ICON database (icon.rice.edu), review articles, literature searches



27

77

83

$700

$901

$6,300

$45

$179

$89

US$ thousandsSource: Wilson Center

US$ millionsSource: Lux Research

Published journal articles U.S. government-funded research 2005 sales

Carbon nanomaterials Ceramic nanoparticles Metal nanoparticles

EHS research doesn’t follow commercial activity

Source: Lux Research/ICON



Source: June 2006 Lux Research Report “Nanotech IP Battles Worth Fighting.” Lux Research found 4,986 nanotechnology patents covering 102,651 claims, and did claim-by-claim analysis of eight nanomaterials covering 2,646 patents and 49,807 claims.

IP density also indicates potential future applications

Low white space

Challenge likely

High white space

Challenge unlikely

Aerogels

General

Structural materials

Energy

Optics

Electronics

Healthcare/cosmetics

Other

Platformoverall

FullerenesCarbon

nanotubes

Dendrimers

Quantum dots

Nanowires

No patents

Metal

nanoparticles

Ceramic

nanoparticles

446 403 294635262 387235 76Total patents



Firms need to handle three aspects of nanotech EHS…

Real risks

Rat exposed to cobalt nanoparticles on the left side, bulk cobalt on the right side

Best case: Nanomaterials prove to be more dangerous than ordinary substances in only a handful of cases

Worst case: Studies show that many nanomaterials have elevated hazard and are more difficult to control

Nanomaterials might have negative effects on people or the environment

Perceptual Risks

Protest of the use of Nano-Tex fabric treatment outside an Eddie Bauer store

Best case: Consumers appreciate the benefits nanomaterials can offer and embrace the technology

Worst case: Nanotech comes to be seen as synonymous with danger and consumers are reluctant to accept it

Nanotechnology might come to be seen as unsafe – irrespective of actual harm

Regulations

Text of the Environmental Protection Agency’s Toxic Substances Control Act

Best case: Existing regulatory frameworks case be painlessly adapted to manage nanomaterials

Worst case: Risks drive regulators to impose stringent testing requirements on all nanomaterials

Regulations might – rightly or wrongly – slow or block commercialization

… but research priorities may differ for each



Thank you

Michael HolmanSenior Analyst+1 646 723 [email protected]

http://www.luxresearchinc.com/



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Peer-reviewedjournal

articles onnanotech

EHS

Hazard Exposure

Studies have shifted toward hazard


Total articles on EHS

31%

69%



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journalarticles onnanotech

EHS

Inhalation Skin Injection Injestion Ecological In vitro Multiple


Inhalation has been the main exposure route studied

Total articles on EHS4%

35%

3%

22%6%

5%

25%



Nanomaterial categories

$0

$400

$800

$1,200

$1,600

Ceramic

nano

partic

lesMeta

l nan

opart

icles

Nanop

orous

mate

rials

Carbon

nano

tubes

Nanos

tructu

red m

etal

Dendri

mersQua

ntum do

tsFull

erene

sNan

owire

s

2005 2010

US$ millions



Nanointermediate categories

$0

$2,000

$4,000

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Drug de

livery

Display

s

Coatin

gs

Memory

Compo

sites

Solar c

ells

Diagno

stics

Therap

eutic

s

Senso

rs

2005 2010

US$ millions

Nano Material Volumes Applications Holman Lux Research

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