NAND at Center Stage - Ron Maltiel Semiconductor Consulting€¦ · SanDisk and Siemens in 1997 Introduced by SanDisk, Toshiba and Panasonic in 1999 Introduced by SanDisk and Sony

Eli HarariChairman and CEO

NAND at Center Stage

Flash Memory Summit

Santa Clara, August 8, 2007

Contact: [email protected]

Forward-Looking Statement

During our meeting today we will be making forward-lookingstatements. Any statement that refers to expectations, projectionsor other characterizations of future events or circumstances is aforward-looking statement, including those relating to revenue,pricing, market share, market growth, product sales, industrytrends, expenses, gross margin, production capacity andtechnology transitions and future products. Actual results maydiffer materially from those expressed in these forward-lookingstatements including due to the factors detailed under the caption“Risk Factors” and elsewhere in the documents we file from time-to-time with the SEC. We undertake no obligation to update theseforward-looking statements, which speak only as of the datehereof.

Topics

• A Bit of Flash Storage History

• NAND Technology & Challenges

• NAND Manufacturing

• NAND Industry Players

• Technology Contenders

• Future Outlook

Beating Moore’s Law

19912.5 inch20MB

4Mb chip35KB/sec$50/MB

200711x15x1mm

8GB16Gb chip10MB/sec$10/GB

12 generation (~4000X) in 16 years

Flash: Accelerating From A Slow Start

MarketSize 1999

CONSUMER

PC/SERVER

CONSUMERINDUSTRIAL

PC/SERVER

CD/MDTAPE

HDD

FLASH

DRAMSRAM

Capacity Cost

MarketSize 2010

CONSUMER

PC/SERVER

A/V CONSUMER,WIRELESS,

INTERNET E-COMMERCE PC/SERVER

CD/MDTAPE

HDDFLASH DRAM

SRAM

Capacity Cost Mechanical Solid State

EH 8-25-99

Projected NAND Demand:~20X from 20062010

Source: Gartner Dataquest, November 2006

Imaging Video & PCAudioData

Billions ofMB

Lifestyle Storage

-

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

16,000

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Other A utomotive PC Gaming Mobile Phone Camcorder USB Drive Media Player Digital Camera

15.4 Trillion MB

1.4 Billion MB

Media Player

Mobile Phone

PC

USB

Mobile/CE/PC Driving NAND Future

Music Phone

Camera PhonePDA Phone

Game Phone

Video Phone

GPS Phone

MobileTV

PC, C

E M

arke

ts

M

obile

Mar

ket

Email Imaging Music GameVideo Map TV / STB

Application

Pioneered by SanDiskStandardized by thePCMCIA Association

Introduced by SanDiskin 1994

Introduced bySanDisk and Siemensin 1997

Introduced by SanDisk,Toshiba and Panasonicin 1999

Introduced bySanDisk and Sony in2000

Introduced by SanDiskin March 2003Standardized in

Jan 2004

Introduced by SanDisk inMarch of 2004Standardized in

May 2005

Industry Standards—Key to Mega-Markets

Introduced bySanDisk and M-Systems in 2005

Introduced bySanDisk in

Sep 2005

MicrosoftMay 2007

Flash: A License to Disrupt

• Past 10 years:– 35mm film– Floppy, Zip, Clik– Tape– CD– 1.3” KittyHawk, 1” Microdrive,

.85” Drive– NOR Flash

• Next 5-7 years:– 1.8” HDD– DRAM ?– DVD ?– 2.5” HDD ?

Next Flash 10X Cost Reductions New Architectures

$0.01

$0.10

$1.00

$10.00

DRAM

NAND

ASP/MB

NOR

Source: Gartner

2001 2007

Market Pull

• Digital revolution creating new mega-markets

• Price-elastic demand from consumer markets

• 1 Billion new consumers

NAND Technology &Challenges

NAND: A Remarkable Technology

• NAND Flash has become process technologydriver for the semiconductor industry

• NAND’s unprecedented scaling rateoutstripping lithography, other toolscapabilities

New TOX Process

New STI gap fill material

New gate material

New inter polydielectric material

New tunneloxide process

Increasing Process Complexity

Technology Push

• NAND rapid scaling benefits from:– Simple array architecture, 4F2, self aligned– Si Floating gate >30 years industry experience– Carry-over between successive generations– Tunnel write/erase current massive parallelism– Multi-level cell (x2 now, x3, x4 in next few years)

• However, NAND as we now know it mayapproach practical limits in ~ 4 generations(~20nm) at ~256Gbit

NAND Challenges

• Technology:– Lithography, Mask tools, Resists– New materials– Tight process tolerances, LER– High aspect ratios, STI fill, Contacts

• Device (cell):– Parasitic capacitive coupling– Vpg >20V on chip– Reduced number of electrons

on floating gateParasitic capacitance

Logical Scaling: Beyond 2b/c4 bits/cell16 levels

1111

0000

0010

1 bit/cell2 levels

0 1

2 bits/cell4 levels

00 01 10 11

0011

0100

0101

0110

0111

1000

1001

1010

1011

1100

1110

1101

0001

3 bits/cell8 levels

000

001

010

011

100

101

110

111

Syst

em E

xper

tise

Incr

easi

ngly

Im

port

ant

System Solution Becoming Critical

• Flash Memory Chip+ Controller– Defect management, wear-out leveling, cell-cell

interference mitigation

– Mass storage emulation, file/bad blockmanagement

– Standard I/O (hide chip algorithmic changes)

– Performance boosting

– DSP, Powerful ECC to enable x4

NAND Manufacturing

Dynamics Of NAND Fabs

• In past 2 years, 200mm DRAM NAND capacityconversion to capture higher margins

• >50% of current industry-wide NAND capacity is200mm, becoming obsolete in ~12 months

• Projected annual ASP/MB cost reductions of~40% in next 5 years (best performers)

• ~60% annual ASP/MB price reductions of2006/7 not sustainable going forward

NAND Economies of Scale: $5B+ per FabAS of Jan 26 2007

AS of May 8 2007

Y3 Y4

Short Technology Life Cycles

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

43nm

56nm

70nm

90nm

130nm

Source: SanDisk

% of production

5 generations in 5 years in production

Flash Competitors

Flash Competitors & Alliances

Competing NVM Technologies

Contenders

• CTF: NAND SONOS/TANOS• NROM/Mirror Bit/Quadbit• PCM/Ovonic• Magnetic RAM (MRAM), Ferroelectric RAM• Probe/Milipede• 3D: Diode , NAND

Required Breakthrough: Write/Erase Switching

3D Memory-Disrupting NAND, HDD?

Conclusions

Summary: NAND at Center Stage

• Young, fast-growing mega-markets for Flashstorage

• Flash a disruptive/enabling force in CE, PC• Huge manufacturing scale and IP required to

compete• Flash device scaling challenges will dictate system

level solutions

• Flash’s 10X cumulative cost reductions innext 5-7 years will complete Flash’s journeyto Center Stage

The Future of Flash Memory is …NOW, and EVERYWHERE!