College Admission Counseling 2015: Trends, Resources, and Policy David Hawkins, National Association for College Admission Counseling
College Admission Counseling 2015: Trends, Resources, and PolicyDavid Hawkins, National Association for College Admission Counseling
Top Five: I. Trends in College Admission
II. New & Noteworthy: Counselor Resources
III. Counselor advocacy
Who is NACAC anyway?
Presentation Overview
Top 5 Trends in College Admission
1. Number of High School Graduates: Actual and Projected
1975
-76
1977
-78
1979
-80
1981
-82
1983
-84
1985
-86
1987
-88
1989
-90
1991
–92
1993
–94
1995
–96
1997
–98
1999
–00
2001
–02
2003
–04
2005
–06
2007
–08
2009
–10
2011
–12
2013
–14
2015
–16
2017
-18
2019
-20
2021
-22
2023
-24
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
Num
ber o
f stu
dent
s (th
ousa
nds)
Note: Includes both public and private high school graduates.Source: US Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics. (2013). Digest of Education Statistics. (Table 210.10).
Peak 3.45 million in 2011-12
Actual and Projected Numbers of Public High School Graduates, by Region: 1999–00, 2009–10 and 2023–24
(in thousands)
SOURCE: US Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics. (2013). Digest of Education Statistics. (Table 219.20).
Northeast Midwest South West -
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
454
648
861
591 557
727
1,105
740
501
674
1,212
778
1999-00(actual)
2009-10(actual)
2023-24(projected)
2. Applications: Percentage of Students Submitting Three or More and Seven or More Applications, 1990 to 2013
SOURCE: Higher Education Research Institute, UCLA. Annual The American Freshman reports.
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
61 60 62 63 62 61 62 61 63 64 67 67 67 70 68 71 71 71 74 75 77 79 77 81
9 8 9 9 10 10 11 11 11 12 13 14 14 16 16 17 18 19 22 23 25 29 2832
Submitted three or more applications Submitted seven or more applications
Perc
enta
ge o
f stu
dent
s
3. Trends in Average Acceptance Rate at Four-Year Colleges
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 201358.0
60.0
62.0
64.0
66.0
68.0
70.0
72.0
74.0
69.6
71.470.7
71.4
69.8
67.9 68.1
66.5 66.566.0
67.1
68.7
69.769.0
68.267.2
66.3 66.565.8
63.7 63.763.0 62.8 63.2
Public Private
Note: The list of colleges was drawn from the 2002-2013 Integrated Postsecondary Education Data System (IPEDS) using the online IPEDS Data Center. For each year of data, institutions were selected using the following criteria: US location, four-year, not-for-profit, baccalaureate degree-granting, and Title-IV participating. Institutions that indicated having open admission policies were then excluded. Source: Integrated Postsecondary Education System (IPEDS) online Data Center. (2011-12). US Department of Education, Washington DC: National Center for Education Statistics.
Trends in Average Yield Rate at Four-Year Colleges
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 201130.0
35.0
40.0
45.0
50.0
55.0
51.450.6
49.1 48.947.5
48.4
46.2
42.9 42.9 42.641.3
39.7
47.8
45.7 45.544.2 43.8 44.2
43.3
38.4 38.4
36.435.4
34.3
Public Private
Note: The list of colleges was drawn from the 2002-2013 Integrated Postsecondary Education Data System (IPEDS) using the online IPEDS Data Center. For each year of data, institutions were selected using the following criteria: US location, four-year, not-for-profit, baccalaureate degree-granting, and Title-IV participating. Institutions that indicated having open admission policies were then excluded. Source: Integrated Postsecondary Education System (IPEDS) online Data Center. (2011-12). US Department of Education, Washington DC: National Center for Education Statistics.
4. Admission Strategies: Percentage of Colleges Using Early Admission Strategies and Wait Lists
Early Decision Early Action Wait List
Total 18.3% 32.4% 42.6%
Control
Public 8.9 26.7 35.6
Private 22.9 35.1 45.8
SOURCE: NACAC Admission Trends Survey, 2013.
Percentage of Colleges Reporting Increases in Early Applications
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 20130
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
4337
5863
49 49 47
38
5550
56
68
56
80
70
81
65
74 72
62
69
78
Early Decision Early Action
SOURCE: NACAC Admission Trends Survey, 2013.
FactorConsiderable importance
Moderate importance
Limited importance
No importance
Grades in college prep courses 81.5% 10.4% 7.4% 0.7%Strength of curriculum 63.7 24.8 8.1 3.3Admission test scores (SAT, ACT) 58.3 29.5 10.0 2.2Grades in all courses 51.5 37.4 8.9 2.2Essay or writing sample 22.2 37.8 22.6 17.4Student’s demonstrated interest 20.1 34.0 23.9 22.0Counselor recommendation 15.9 43.9 24.7 15.5Teacher recommendation 15.2 35.3 33.5 16.0Class rank 14.1 43.9 28.3 13.8Extracurricular activities 9.6 40.6 33.9 15.9Interview 7.8 21.2 27.9 43.1Portfolio 7.5 30.6 32.5 29.5Subject test scores (AP, IB) 6.4 9.4 34.3 49.8SAT II scores 6.0 10.9 23.7 59.4State graduation exam scores 3.4 10.1 28.4 58.2
Work 2.6 17.1 51.3 29.0
5.Factors in the Admission Decision
SOURCE: NACAC Admission Trends Survey, 2013.
Factors Showing Most Change in “Considerable Importance” Rating: 1993 to 2013
SOURCE: NACAC Admission Trends Survey, 2013.
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Demonstrated Interest
Essay
Class rank
Admission test scores
Grades in all courses
Perc
enta
ge o
f col
lege
s
Considerable importance
Moderate importance
Limited importance
No importance
High school attended 3.3 24.1 33.7 38.9
Alumni relations 3.3 21.2 19.0 56.5First-generation status 2.6 16.7 28.9 51.9State or county of residence 2.2 25.1 26.6 46.1
Race/ethnicity 1.9 7.0 17.8 73.3Gender 1.9 12.3 17.9 67.9Ability to pay 1.8 18.1 38.7 41.3
Percentage of Colleges Attributing Different Levels of Importance to the Influence of Student Characteristics on the Evaluation of Factors in the Admission Decision: 2013
SOURCE: NACAC Admission Trends Survey, 2013.
Top 5 New & Noteworthy Tidbits
• What is PPY?
• What could it mean for counselors?
• Improved discussions about financing college• Financial Aid/FAFSA information nights held earlier• Fall workload increases• College/University requests for earlier visits
1. Prior-Prior Year Tax Data for FAFSA
NACAC PPY Web Page
2. College Scorecard
Sample Scorecard
3. ED Counselor Toolkit
4. CFPB Award Letter Comparison Tool
5. Trusted Sources
Top 5 Advocacy Issues for School Counselors and College Advisors
1. Students Per Counselor at Public Schools
SOURCES: Common Core of Data. Elementary/Secondary Information System (ELSi) tableGenerator. (2011-12) US Department of Education, Washington, DC: National Center for Education Statistics..
• Each public school counselor responsible for 475 students, on average
• In the Northeast:New York 400:1Connecticut 503:1Pennsylvania 387:1New Jersey 350:1
2. Reach Higher Initiative
3. The Council of National School Counseling and College Access Organizations
• NACAC, ASCA, College Board, ACT, ACA, NCAN, NCAC, SREB/Go Alliance, CACREP
• Stay tuned: new web site for counselors and college access professionals
4. Supreme Court: Fisher v University of Texas
5. NACAC Affiliates
Advocacy for College Admission Counseling:
• Equitable access to college preparatory curriculum• Support for school counselors and college advising• Support for need-based financial aid for college• Protecting students against fraud and abuse• Supporting higher education for undocumented students
Questions?
• Thank you, Marist College!
• For more about NACAC:
www.nacacnet.org