Economic and Political Situation in Ukraine Tymofiy Mylovanov, U of Pittsburgh Also, VoxUkraine+iMoRe teams Yuriy Gorodnichenko, UC Berkeley Yuriy Zhukov, U of Michigan Natalia Shapoval, Kyiv School of Economics Dmitry Ostapchuk, VoxUkraine Mikhail Minakov
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Economic and Political Situation in Ukraine
Tymofiy Mylovanov, U of Pittsburgh
Also, VoxUkraine+iMoRe teams
Yuriy Gorodnichenko, UC Berkeley
Yuriy Zhukov, U of Michigan
Natalia Shapoval, Kyiv School of Economics
Dmitry Ostapchuk, VoxUkraine
Mikhail Minakov
Dynamics of the violence
Macroeconomic Outlook
OUTPUT
-30
-20
-10
010
pe
rcen
t, y
ea
r on
ye
ar
2013Q12013Q2
2013Q32013Q4
2014Q12014Q2
2014Q32014Q4
2015Q12015Q2
2015Q3
OUTPUT
Economy was in a recession before the Maidan movement.
-30
-20
-10
010
pe
rcen
t, y
ea
r on
ye
ar
2013Q12013Q2
2013Q32013Q4
2014Q12014Q2
2014Q32014Q4
2015Q12015Q2
2015Q3
OUTPUT
Free fall until early 2015.
-30
-20
-10
010
pe
rcen
t, y
ea
r on
ye
ar
2013Q12013Q2
2013Q32013Q4
2014Q12014Q2
2014Q32014Q4
2015Q12015Q2
2015Q3
OUTPUT
Notes: Real GDP in 2015Q3 grew 0.5% relative to 2015Q2 and preliminary data suggest
1.5% growth in 2015Q4 relative to 2015Q3.
-30
-20
-10
010
pe
rcen
t, y
ea
r on
ye
ar
2013Q12013Q2
2013Q32013Q4
2014Q12014Q2
2014Q32014Q4
2015Q12015Q2
2015Q3
OUTPUT VS. PRIVATE CONSUMPTION
Massive fall in private consumption, a sign of economic disaster