Myanmar Transition Presentation

8/12/2019 Myanmar Transition Presentation

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Presentation onMyanmar in Transition:

Implications for IndianDiplomacy

Dr V.S. Seshadri11 March 2014

atIndian Institute of Technology

Guwahati 1


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Myanmar FactsheetPopulation 60mn

Area 6,76,577 sq. Km (1/5th size of India, 4 times Bangladesh)

Demography Ethnic Groups

135 in total-majority Burmans. Others Shan, Kachin, Kayah,

Kayin, Chin, Mon and Rakhine.Religion

Buddhist; 80%, Christians & Muslims; 4 to 5% each and Hindu;2%

Borders China 2,204 Km. Thailand 2,107 Km. India 1643 Km.Laos 248 Km and Bangladesh 271 Km

AdministrativeDivisions

States (7): Chin, Kachin, Kayah, Kayin, Mon, Rakhine & Shan

Regions (7): Ayeyarwaddy, Bago, Magway, Mandalay, Sagaing,Tanintharyi & Yangon

Natural Resources - Vast reserves Petroleum & Natural Gas (natural gas 283.2Bn Cubic Meters), Gold, precious stones

- 50% forest cover

Per capita GDP US$ 760 Presently categorized as LDC

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Independence and Military Coup

o Differences between Burman dominated majority and ethnic minorities havelong persisted but exacerbated past 1948 in the new Union.

o Shans, Kachins, Chins, Karens, Karennis, Rakhines, Mons comprising over30% of population inhabit over 50% of the geographic area which is hilly andrings the Burmans in the plains in the form of an inverted U.

o Gen Aung San and majority of interim cabinet assassinated priorindependence.

o Resultant ethnic insurgency as well as problems from the uprising byCommunist Party of Burma and factionalism led to PM U Nu inviting military to

bring order in 1958.

o Subsequent military coup by Gen Ne Win in 1962 followed by 26 years ofBurmese Way to Socialism

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Emergence of ASSK and Gen. Than Shwe

o 1988 1990. Gen Ne Win hands over and Aung San Suu Kyi (ASSK) who returnedto the country for tending to her mother joins political arena.

o ASSKs National League for Democracy (NLD) sweeps 1990 elections.

o Military refuses to handover power.

o 21 year military rule with Gen Than Shwe taking over in 1992.

o ASSK under house arrest for over 15 years.

o 1988 student leaders and other opposition leaders also under house arrest.

o Host of ceasefire agreements with different ethnic groups resulting in relativestability.

o Subsequent hopes for economic reforms or ethnic reconciliation dashed by 1997-98financial crisis, purge of PM Khin Nyunt in 2004 and saffron Revolution 2007.

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Transition from Military Rule

o Military regime probably skeptical of sustainability in 21st

century. Even Cambodia and Laos were seen developing faster.

o Initiates drafting of new Constitution in 2003 as part of a 7Step roadmap to Discipline flourishing Democracy.

o Constitution approved in 2008 referendum despite ongoing .

o Constitution provides for continued participation of military ingovernance (25% reservations)

o Elections held as per 2008 constitution in November 2010.

o New leadership handpicked by General Than Shwe as part ofthe 6th Step to ensure smooth transition.

o President U Thein Sein, earlier PM of SPDC takes over as newPresdient on 30 March 2011 and SPDC disbanded.

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Initiatives announced by NewGovernment

o Path breaking 31 March 2011 speech by President Thein Sein: -

Good governance and clean govt.

Strengthen pillars on Legislative, Executive and Judiciary

fronts.

Rule of Law.

Respect for role of media.

Ending corruption.

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On-going ReformsPolitical

o Dialogue with Daw Aung San Suu Kyi eventually led to NLDjoining political process through bye-election.

o Release of political prisoners most released, in phases.

o Parliamentary process Ninth sessions held so far has come along way with more open debate and discussion.

o Loosening of media control. Daily private newpapers from 1st

April 2013.

o Response from international community in the form of removalof most sanctions.

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On-going ReformInternal Peace and Reconciliation

1. March 2012 President announces a three stages roadmap

(a) State level ceasefire.(b) Union level dialogue to include no secession, anti drug /economic cooperation, political accommodation, constitutionalamendment.

.

2. State level ceasefire agreement reached with all major groupsexcept Kachins with whom a 7 point agreement reached but notcalled a ceasefire agreement. Some clashes still reported.

3. Talks progressing towards a national ceasefire agreement

Prospects brightens4. Rohingaya issue a matter for concern. Some communal clashes

have also followed. Inter faith dialogues are taking place. Issuehowever may need solution.

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On-going Reform2008 Consitutional Review

1. Joint Committee with 109 Parliament members set up torecommend proposals for constitutional reform. Reportsubmitted on 31st January 2014. inconclusive. A 32 memberimplementation committee set up.

2. Possible areas of focus.

relatives who are foreign nationals from being eligible forposts such as President, Vice- President this will dependASSK eligibility.

(ii) 25% reservation of seats for military.

(iii) More decentralisation.

(iv) More autonomy for ethnic groups demand for federalUnion and federal army.

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On-going ReformEconomic Reforms

o Privatisation of several Government ownedbuildings and some factories.

o Unifying exchange rates Kyat now on managedfloat.

o Rationalisation of taxation Incentives for exports.

o Enacting of Foreign Investment Law.o Clearing of some external debt has enabled

Myanmar to receive ADB / World Bank assistance.

o Autonomy for Central Bank.o Moves for Telecom, Port, Airport modernisation.

o SEZs at Thillawa, Dawei and Kyaukphyu.

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On-going ReformsEconomic

2011-12 to 2015-16: 5 Year Plan

o 7.7% annual increase in GDP.

o 1.7 total increase in per capita GDP

o Reducing share of agriculture in GDP from 36.4% to29.2%

o Increase manufacturing from 26% to 32% andServices from 37.6% to 38.7%

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On-going ReformsConstraints

(i) Culture of decision making still remains

very centralised without sufficientdelegation.

(ii) Some friction between Parliament and the

(iii) Severe lack of expertise and skills andinstitutional capacities.

(iv) Case for greater decentralisation of powersto regions and states.

(v) Absence of adequate infrastructure.

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2015 Elections

o Political parties already strategising.

o Ethnic parties have also formed Federal

n on par y.

o Will NLD win a majority?

o USDP

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India-Myanmar Bilateral RelationsKey determinants

A 1643 kilometer long and porous border as well as

maritime boundary. Strong Historic, Cultural, Religious links.

Myanmar gateway to South East Asia, Both are also.

Strategic location from security perspective.Insurgents from our militant groups tend to takeshelter across border.

Constructive engagement over last two decades several development cooperation programmes.

Sizable people of Indian origin.

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Myanmars External Relationso New government has reached out to tall countries to

make friends.o Many more Foreign embassies in Myanmar.

o Many offering technical and financial assistance .

o ASEAN Chair this year.

o China continues to play significant part althoughentry of others has diminished preponderance.

o Myanmar striving steadily to become part ofinternational mainstream.

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Strengthening of Relations underNew Government

High level Visits Increased Frequency

o President U Thein Sein visited India in October 2011 and December2012.

o PM Manmohan Singh visited Myanmar in May 2012 (after 25 years byanother PM) and 3-5 March 2014 for BIMSTEC Summit.

December 2011, Upper House Speaker in December 2013 and our ownSpeaker Smt. Meera Kumar in February 2013.

o Visits by Foreign Ministers from both sides.

o Daw Aung San Suu Kyi visited in November 2012

o Myanmar Human Rights Commission delegation in May 2012.o Myanmar Chief of Armed forces Vice Senior General Min Aung Hlaing

visited in August 2012 and all our service chiefs have visited as well.Raksha Mantri in January 2013.

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Development Cooperation InitiativesUpto 2011

Kaladan Multimodal Transport project began inDecember 2010.

Various Capacity Building Programmes, includingsetting up four training institutions in IT,entrepreneurship development, English Languagean n us r a ra n ng.

250 fellowship under ITEC / Colombo Plan annually.

Extension of concessionary loans for severalprojects including revamping refinery, truck

assembly etc. Tamu-Kalay/Kalewa Friendship Road construction.

Restoration of Ananda Temple in Bagan

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Development Cooperation initiatives with

New Government 12 MOUs signed during PM Manmohan Singhs visit.

Extension of new line of credit for US$500 million.

Announcement regarding construction of Kalewa Yargyi (120 km) segment of India Myanmar-Thailand-Trilateral highway.

Repair of bridges on Tamu/Kalay-Kalewa segment Advanced Centre for Agricultural Research and

Education and Rice Bio Park at Yezin.

Grant of US$10 million worth of agriculturalmachinery(Contd.)

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Development Cooperation initiatives

with New Government (Contd.)

Myanmar Institute of Information Technology

in Mandalay.Border Region Development Programme

Chin State and Naga Self Administered Zone.

US$ 5 million each year for 5 years.Increase in the number of ITEC / Colombo

Plan fellowships to 500.

Establishment of a new Industrial TrainingCentre at Myingyan.

MOU signed for Rhi-Tiddim Road.20


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Specific Training Programmes

supportive of Myanmars reforms Orientation programme for 40 MPs and 40 Parliament

staff, in batches, of one week duration each, in Indian

Bureau of parliamentary studies. Special 2-week training programmes and exposure for

three batches of Myanmar journalists of 30 each.

Alleviation Shri Montek Singh Ahluwalia and Dr. IsherAhluwalia.

A seminar on Disinvestment and Privatisation of publiclyowned companies conducted by CII.

A 2 week training programme for 20 MBA students ofMandalay University in the Indian Institute of Management,Bangalore now becoming an annual affair.

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India-Myanmar Trade

(Values in US$ Millions)(source: Ministry of Commerce, New Delhi)

Year 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14

April-June

Indiasexports toMyanmar

207.97

(6.17%)

320.62

(54.17%)

545.38

(70.1%)

544.66 121.32

IndiasimportsfromMyanmar

1,289.80

(38.84%)

1,017.67

(-21.1%)

1,324.82

(30.18%)

1412.69

(6.6%

394.82

TOTAL

TRADE

1,497.77

(30.17%)

1,338.29

(-10.65%)

1,870.20

(39.75%)

1957.35 516.14

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India-Myanmar Trade and

Economic RelationsFactors that can boost trade

1. Direct shipping connectivity.2. Easier payment arrangements and concessionary

financing.

.

facilitation early setting up of the Integrated CustomsPost at Moreh.

4. More trade promotional activities.

5. Indian companies to make more investments inMyanmar.

6. India of course extends duty free treatment for LDCsincluding Myanmar.

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India-Myanmar Economic Relations1. Some On-going Projects:

(a) Implementation by M/s Punj Lloyd of the first phase of oil/gaspipeline from Kyaukphyu-Kunming.

(b) Offshore platform development by M/s Larsen and Toubro forZawtika project.

(c) Essar Construction in the Kaladan project.

.

China-Myanmar Gas pipelines.

3. Jubilant Energy awarded PSC-I onshore block for exploration.

4. Several Indian companies in fray for onshore/offshore blocks andother major investment opportunities.

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India-Myanmar Relations

Outlook for future

Strong political will present on both sides to strengthenrelations.

As Myanmar marches towards democratic governancethere are several areas for the two countries to worktogether.

Bringing to fruition Projects like Trilateral Connectivity

and more people to people ties will make big difference. By 2017-18 connectivity would get a boost. Important to

transform these into development corridors

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Thank you

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Myanmar Transition Presentation

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