1 Market Perspective: Falling Oil Weighs on Markets in December Fear of a continued decline in oil prices spread into the broader stock market through the middle of December. After hitting a new all-time high on December 5, the S&P 500 Index declined 4.1 percent through December 15. The majority of losses were concentrated in the en- ergy sector. SPDR Energy (XLE), one of the less vola- tile energy ETFs, fell 8.6 percent over this period, but that drop was still less than the decline in oil prices over the same period. West Texas Intermediate crude fell 17 percent and sank to the mid-$50 level after one major OPEC producer said it saw a $40 level coming before OPEC may finally decide to cut production. Stocks came under pressure after oil prices fell far enough to warrant concern about the broader economy. Reuters reported that layoffs have been announced in Texas, and economists are anticipating slower growth in some of the American boom states powered by the shale revolution. The outlook for emerging economies, which rely far more on commodity production as a per- centage of GDP, is much worse. In the coming weeks, economists will likely revise their emerging market growth estimates lower for 2015 based on weaker en- ergy prices. Part of the weakness is being driven by China, which is still shifting away from an export and infrastructure driven economy. China’s industrial production slowed in November, and investment has fallen to the lowest levels since the 2008 financial crisis. Real estate invest- ment growth was running at nearly 20 percent at the start of the year, but now is down to 7.6 percent as of November. If these investment numbers hold into 2015, GDP growth could slide below 7 percent. Although 5 percent growth sounds encouraging com- pared with no growth in Europe and Japan, China’s slowdown is concentrated in energy intensive sectors such as infrastructure. Massive amounts of energy are needed to make the steel and concrete used in building projects. In November, industries such as concrete and plate glass were in full blown recession. Even if China continues growing, its current investment rates indicate construction projects will keep slowing into 2015, and that means far less demand than expected. The current drop in oil prices, for example, was heralded by the drop in iron ore prices from nearly $136 a ton at the end of 2013 to $68 recently, a 50 percent decline. The collapse in iron ore prices was mainly due to optimistic projections for Chinese demand that suddenly became less optimistic in 2014, as supply far outpaced demand. The situation in the oil market is not as reliant on China, but the story is similar. Slower than expected growth, and in the case of oil, faster supply growth, made for a big drop in prices. Even though there’s some risk for energy producing states, investors may be overestimating the cost of low oil prices to the U.S. economy. The Markit Manufac- turing PMI for December slipped to 53.7, down from November’s 54.8, though any number above 50 still signals expansion. Markit’s number is also below the Institute for Supply Management’s (ISM) November ISM reading of 58.7, which still signals a robust expan- sion in this leading sector. In its report, ISM also noted that backlogs, exports and new orders were all growing at a faster rate in November, which is excellent news for the manufacturing sector. Other than the most recent slip in manufacturing data, the previous couple of months have seen a steady im- provement in economic results. Third quarter GDP growth was revised up to 3.9 percent on the back of strong exports and business investment. Companies created 321,000 jobs in November, significantly above the estimates of 230,000. It was the highest monthly number in 2014, exceeding April’s 288,000 by a wide margin. The Wall Street Journal noted the economy is seeing “the best year for job growth since 1999.” In addition to the growth in jobs, wages are going up too, climbing 0.4 percent in November. We also know consumers are shifting their behavior. Sales of Ford’s Navigator SUV jumped 91 percent last month, while sales of the compact Ford Fusion fell 9 percent. Retail sales growth improved to 0.7 percent in November too, one of the best showings in 2014. While it remains to be seen how much consumers spend this holiday season, between rising wages and lower oil prices, they at least have the wind at their back for the first time in many years. Also helping consumers and the U.S. economy is a stronger U.S. dollar, which reached a new high in De- cember. Although the euro and yen have since rallied, emerging market currencies continued to fall, led by the collapse of the Russian ruble. The ruble was 37 to $1 at the start of September; 50 at the start of December; and 54 on December 12. In the next four days, the currency plunged all the way to 80 intraday before stabilizing around 65. (continued on next page) MutualFundInvestorGuide.com THE ETF Investor Guide MUTUAL FUND Investor Guide DECEMBER 2014 Matthew D. Sauer Founder & Chief Investment Officer Matthew Sauer is the Founder and Chief Investment Officer of the Mutual Fund Investor Guide family of newsletters. Each month he analyzes and provides buy, sell and hold recommendations for hundreds of mutual funds and ETFs in three newsletters: The Investor Guide to Fidelity Funds, The ETF Investor Guide and The Investor Guide to Vanguard Funds. Prior to starting the Mutual Fund Investor Guide, Matthew was President and Chief Investment Officer of the Fidelity Independent Adviser, ETF Report & Sector Momentum Tracker newsletters. IN THIS ISSUE 1 Perspective 2 Portfolio Updates 3 Model Portfolios 4 Data & Rankings 15 The Impact of Falling Oil Prices
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Market Perspective: Falling Oil Weighs on Markets in DecemberFear of a continued decline in oil prices spread into the broader stock market through the middle of December. After hitting a new all-time high on December 5, the S&P 500 Index declined 4.1 percent through December 15. The majority of losses were concentrated in the en-ergy sector. SPDR Energy (XLE), one of the less vola-tile energy ETFs, fell 8.6 percent over this period, but that drop was still less than the decline in oil prices over the same period. West Texas Intermediate crude fell 17 percent and sank to the mid-$50 level after one major OPEC producer said it saw a $40 level coming before OPEC may fi nally decide to cut production. Stocks came under pressure after oil prices fell far enough to warrant concern about the broader economy. Reuters reported that layoffs have been announced in Texas, and economists are anticipating slower growth in some of the American boom states powered by the shale revolution. The outlook for emerging economies, which rely far more on commodity production as a per-centage of GDP, is much worse. In the coming weeks, economists will likely revise their emerging market growth estimates lower for 2015 based on weaker en-ergy prices.Part of the weakness is being driven by China, which is still shifting away from an export and infrastructure driven economy. China’s industrial production slowed in November, and investment has fallen to the lowest levels since the 2008 fi nancial crisis. Real estate invest-ment growth was running at nearly 20 percent at the start of the year, but now is down to 7.6 percent as of November. If these investment numbers hold into 2015, GDP growth could slide below 7 percent. Although 5 percent growth sounds encouraging com-pared with no growth in Europe and Japan, China’s slowdown is concentrated in energy intensive sectors such as infrastructure. Massive amounts of energy are needed to make the steel and concrete used in building projects. In November, industries such as concrete and plate glass were in full blown recession. Even if China continues growing, its current investment rates indicate construction projects will keep slowing into 2015, and that means far less demand than expected. The current drop in oil prices, for example, was heralded by the drop in iron ore prices from nearly $136 a ton at the end of 2013 to $68 recently, a 50 percent decline. The
collapse in iron ore prices was mainly due to optimistic projections for Chinese demand that suddenly became less optimistic in 2014, as supply far outpaced demand. The situation in the oil market is not as reliant on China, but the story is similar. Slower than expected growth, and in the case of oil, faster supply growth, made for a big drop in prices.Even though there’s some risk for energy producing states, investors may be overestimating the cost of low oil prices to the U.S. economy. The Markit Manufac-turing PMI for December slipped to 53.7, down from November’s 54.8, though any number above 50 still signals expansion. Markit’s number is also below the Institute for Supply Management’s (ISM) November ISM reading of 58.7, which still signals a robust expan-sion in this leading sector. In its report, ISM also noted that backlogs, exports and new orders were all growing at a faster rate in November, which is excellent news for the manufacturing sector. Other than the most recent slip in manufacturing data, the previous couple of months have seen a steady im-provement in economic results. Third quarter GDP growth was revised up to 3.9 percent on the back of strong exports and business investment. Companies created 321,000 jobs in November, signifi cantly above the estimates of 230,000. It was the highest monthly number in 2014, exceeding April’s 288,000 by a wide margin. The Wall Street Journal noted the economy is seeing “the best year for job growth since 1999.” In addition to the growth in jobs, wages are going up too, climbing 0.4 percent in November. We also know consumers are shifting their behavior. Sales of Ford’s Navigator SUV jumped 91 percent last month, while sales of the compact Ford Fusion fell 9 percent. Retail sales growth improved to 0.7 percent in November too, one of the best showings in 2014. While it remains to be seen how much consumers spend this holiday season, between rising wages and lower oil prices, they at least have the wind at their back for the fi rst time in many years. Also helping consumers and the U.S. economy is a stronger U.S. dollar, which reached a new high in De-cember. Although the euro and yen have since rallied, emerging market currencies continued to fall, led by the collapse of the Russian ruble. The ruble was 37 to $1 at the start of September; 50 at the start of December; and 54 on December 12. In the next four days, the currency plunged all the way to 80 intraday before stabilizing around 65.
Matthew d. SauerFounder & Chief Investment Offi cer
Matthew Sauer is the Founder and Chief Investment Offi cer of the Mutual Fund Investor Guide family of newsletters. Each month he analyzes and provides buy, sell and hold recommendations for hundreds of mutual funds and ETFs in three newsletters: The Investor Guide to Fidelity Funds, The ETF Investor Guide and The Investor Guide to Vanguard Funds.
Prior to starting the Mutual Fund Investor Guide, Matthew was President and Chief Investment Offi cer of the Fidelity Independent Adviser, ETF Report & Sector Momentum Tracker newsletters.
IN THIs IssuE 1 Perspective
2 Portfolio Updates
3 Model Portfolios
4 Data & Rankings
15 The Impact of Falling Oil Prices
2 DECEMBER 2014 | PHONE: (888) 252-5372
The eTF Investor Guide
The U.S. dollar could remain strong in 2015 if the European Central Bank decides to launch a quantitative easing program. That would be bullish for European equities as well, and would most benefit a fund such as Wisdom-Tree Hedged Europe (HEDJ), which hedges against currency risk. Moreover, Europe could again be the central focus for investors should Greece decide to change its government. A presidential vote is scheduled for December 17, with two more rounds if no one is elected. Members of parlia-ment vote for the largely ceremonial president; victory requires 200 out of 300 legislators in the first two rounds, with only 180 needed in
round three. The ruling coalition is said to need about 7 votes to reach 180, which means the vote will likely come down to the third and final round at the end of December. If there is no winner, a general election will take place at the end of January. The opposition party, which opposes austerity, is leading the polls and would likely win a general election. If the Greeks decide to change course and break from their financial arrangements with the rest of Europe, the Greek sovereign debt crisis could be back. On the day the election was an-nounced, Greek stocks saw their biggest daily loss since 1987.Low commodity prices are hurting emerging
markets, and the slowing Chinese economy will keep the pressure on these markets in 2015. In Japan, Shinzo Abe won reelection and now has a mandate to continue Abenomics, which mainly involves weakening the Japa-nese yen. In Europe, a new quantitative easing program, or at least stepped up intervention, could launch in 2015. Back in the U.S., growth remains strong. Some weakness in oil produc-ing states could keep GDP growth moderate in the fourth quarter, but lower energy prices will certainly benefit consumers. With the manufacturing sector still in robust expansion, global investors will find the U.S. a safe haven in 2015.
Portfolio UpdatesUntil the second and third week of December, returns had been quite strong for the Model Portfolios as the major indexes reached new highs. However, losses in the oil patch weighed on the broad indexes, taking the S&P 500 Index down 2.46 percent on the month. The Dow Jones Industrial Average slipped 2.57 percent, and the Nasdaq fell 1.78 percent. The Russell 2000 fell 2.86 percent. The MSCI EAFE, still weighed down by weak foreign currencies, slid 4.62 percent. Year to date, the Nasdaq is up 10.26 percent. The S&P 500 Index has gained 7.64 percent. The DJIA is up 3.64 percent, and the Russell 2000 Index is down 2.01 percent. The MSCI EAFE has declined 9.72 percent.We made no changes to the Model Portfolios this month. The ETF Aggressive Sector Portfolio slipped 0.38 percent over the past month but is still up 12.77 percent in 2014. iShares North American Software (IGV), which gained more than 13 percent over the prior month, slipped 3.26 per-cent and was the worst performer in the port-folio. In contrast, SPDR Biotech (XBI) gained 4.75 percent as biotech shares stayed hot. Fi-delity MSCI Healthcare (FHLC) rallied 1.65 percent, the only other gainer on the month. The two consumer funds, as well as iShares U.S. Financials (IYF), still outperformed the broader market. The ETF Straight Growth Portfolio fell 1.92 percent in the past month; it is up 9.40 percent this year. iShares U.S. Pharmaceuticals (IHE) gained 2.24 percent, lifting its 2014 return to 26.79 percent. Rydex S&P MidCap 400 Pure Growth (RFG) weighed on the portfolio, hurt
by weakness in the small and midcap sectors. It fell 4.63 percent on the month. As expected, Vanguard Dividend Appreciation (VIG) out-performed in a down month, losing only 1.62 percent. VIG holds companies with very strong balance sheets, which makes investors less likely to sell them when the markets weaken. The ETF Balanced Growth Portfolio slid 2.92 percent in the past month and is now pos-itive 4.43 percent in 2014. iShares High Divi-dend (HDV) fell 3.27 percent. HDV holds oil producer Chevron (CVX) in the top ten, and its top two holdings are AT&T (T) and Veri-zon (VZ). The drop in oil stocks doesn’t bear repeating, but telecom stocks also saw a bout of intense selling after investors became con-cerned about increased competition in the sec-tor. High yield debt was impacted by the oil sector, and ProShares High Yield Interest Rate Hedged (HYHG) also lost ground due to a rally in Treasury bonds, causing it to lose on its in-terest rate hedges.The ETF Conservative Income Portfolio de-creased 2.96 percent for the month; overall, the portfolio is up 2.32 percent this year. iShares High Yield Bond (HYG) fell 4.21 percent due to energy sector bonds taking a beating. As mentioned above, HYHG saw even larger losses due to Treasury rates turning lower. iS-hares S&P 500 Index (IVV) fell 2.32 percent, and SPDR Barclays Convertible Securities (CWB) outperformed, falling only 2.01 percent on the month.The ETF Global Portfolio fell 5.15 percent in the past month and has declined 1.96 percent for the year. Shares of iShares Dow Jones In-ternational Select Dividend (IDV) and Power-Shares International Dividend Achievers (PID) weighed heavily on the portfolio, losing 7.04
percent and 8.21 percent, respectively. Nei-ther fund is currency hedged, which cost them a few percentage points. PID’s largest sector exposure is energy, and IDV’s largest country exposure is Australia, which is a commodity exporting country hurt by a slowing China. WisdomTree Japan Hedged Equity (DXJ) and WisdomTree Europe Hedged Equity (HEDJ) fared much better, losing only 3.33 percent and 1.61 percent, respectively.The ETF Aggressive Value Portfolio tumbled 12.28 percent in the past month and is down 12.75 percent for the year. Market Vectors Rus-sia (RSX), PowerShares DB Energy (DBE) and First Trust ISE Revere Natural Gas (FCG) were all devastated by the collapse in energy prices that accelerated following OPEC’s Thanksgiving Day meeting. All three funds are back near their 2009 lows as a result of the past three weeks’ incredible moves in energy shares. FCG and RSX are undervalued, but a bounce has remained elusive to this point. While the performance of the model may be concerning, any bounce could be significant in a very short period of time.The ETF Absolute Return Portfolio gained 0.22 percent on the month, and is up 2.08 per-cent this year. Utilities Select SPDR (XLU) gained 1.29 percent, helped by tumbling inter-est rates and a desire for defense on the part of investors. PowerShares DB U.S. Dollar Index Bullish Fund (UUP) rallied 0.99 percent on the month as the greenback extended its gains versus the euro and yen. iShares Comex Gold (IAU) may have finally bottomed out; it lost only 0.09 percent in the past month amid a collapse in other commodity prices. Consumer Staples Select SPDR (XLP) held up well, los-ing only 0.36 percent.
Market Perspective: Falling Oil Weighs on Markets in December (continued)
The Impact of Falling Oil PricesSince July of this year, West Texas Inter-mediate crude oil has plunged from $105 to $55 per barrel. The decline accelerated in November after the OPEC meeting, where Saudi Arabia and its allies convinced OPEC to keep production quotas steady. In the days following the meeting, the Saudis came out and said oil might stabilize around $60. Recently, Iran said oil could fall to $40 if OPEC doesn’t make changes. It went on to say the drop in oil prices was due to “treachery,” a comment aimed at geopoliti-cal foe Saudi Arabia and its allies. Later, a United Arab Emirates official said there was no need for an emergency meeting and no production cuts would occur until oil hits $40 a barrel.Behind the drop in prices is a weaken-ing global economy. Even though overall growth remains positive, faster growth was priced into the oil market. China’s rebal-ancing has the country’s economy slowing; ,more important, even if its GDP growth rate is maintained, it is shifting into less energy intensive industries. Oil demand is down in the developed world thanks to a mix of slowing population growth, lower economic growth outside the United States, and large improvements in efficiency. Oil demand growth has been revised lower in 2015, and the International Energy Agency (IEA) sees demand for OPEC oil below 29 million bar-rels per day, 1 million below current OPEC production quotas. Estimates put non-OPEC oil production supply at 1 million barrels per day above demand as well, providing for ap-proximately a 2 million barrel oversupply in the market. Inventory is high in the United States and Europe, and China was recently
buying all it could to build up its reserves at lower prices. There is an excess of supply and falling demand, a recipe for lower prices in any industry. In a shrinking market, low cost producers try to grab market share and push competitors out, which results in an acceler-ating decline in prices.
ETF IMPaCTIf a list waswere drawn up of the ETFs most impacted by falling oil prices, funds such as SPDR Energy (XLE) would top the list, but the impact goes far beyond commodity and equity funds in the energy sector. A number of commodity exporting countries have seen their currencies decline even though they do not rely on oil exports. High-yield bonds have also seen heavy selling due to energy exposure.
HIGH YIElD BONDsThere are several estimates of the amount of high yield debt issued by the energy sec-tor, but 15 to 20 percent of the total high yield bond market is considered realistic. The two main high yield debt ETFs are iShares iBoxx High Yield Corporate Bond (HYG) and SPDR Barclays High Yield Bond (JNK). HYG breaks down its hold-ings by sector, while JNK does not. As of December 15, HYG reported 13.36 per-cent exposure to oil and gas companies. JNK likely has higher exposure to the en-ergy sector because HYG and JNK have very little variation in their relative perfor-mance going back years, but since Octo-ber, HYG has been steadily outperforming. Since September 30, HYG is down 3.90 percent, including dividends. Over the same period, JNK is down 4.72 percent.
There are also two short-term high yield bond funds: SPDR Barclays Short Term High Yield Bond (SJNK) and PIMCO 0-5 Year High Yield Corporate Bond (HYS). Since October, HYS has bested SJNK, but it’s unclear if that is due to having less en-ergy exposure or to having slightly higher credit quality. Both HYS and SJNK have held up better than HYG and JNK since Oc-tober.Investors concerned about the energy mar-ket and looking for better performance may want to switch to a short-term high yield bond fund, but it will come at the cost of yield. For those who want to stick with ag-gregate high yield bond funds, HYG is the best choice. For those who want to speculate on a rebound in energy prices, JNK has the most ground to make up. We are maintain-ing our position in HYG in the portfolio as it has only a modest exposure to energy. We also hold ProShares High Yield Interest Rate Hedged (HYHG) in the models as protec-tion against rising interest rates. That said, over the short term, we may see increased volatility in these positions.
COuNTRY ETFsThe decline in oil prices has hit major oil ex-porting countries quite hard, along with tum-bling stock prices and currencies. Among the hardest hit has been Russia, which is also suffering from sanctions aimed at pun-ishing the country for its actions in Ukraine. There are also emerging market economies that don’t have meaningful exposure to en-ergy production and may even benefit from lower energy prices, but they have been caught up in the mass selling of emerging market shares. Such countries include China and India. In between are oil producers such
(continued on page 16)
inVerSe & LeVerAged (continued)
% return (3 and 5 Years Annualized)Yield %
Beta 3 Year
sD 3 Year
Expense ratiosymbol Fund Price rank Advice YTD 1 Month 3 Month 1 Year 3 Year 5 Year
The Impact of Falling Oil Prices (continued)
as Mexico, which either have a small en-ergy sector or don’t overly rely on it for government finances.The largest oil importers are the eurozone, the United States, Japan, China and India. These nations stand to benefit the most from falling energy prices because that will cut down on their imports. Aside from the United States, these nations also don’t have much in the way of oil production, so en-ergy savings will have little negative im-pact.
CuRRENCY ETFsOne big reason emerging market ETFs have broadly underperformed is due to currency effects. The U.S. dollar is in a broad rally versus emerging market currencies, devel-oped market currencies and commodities. Emerging market currency ETFs, such as WisdomTree Dreyfus Emerging Currency (CEW), are down more than 10 percent since July, with more than half of those losses coming over the past two months. Currencies of resources exporters, such as the Canadian and Australian dollars, have also lagged. The U.S. dollar isn’t going to go up in a straight line, and a pullback may already be underway, but until the slide in commodity prices stops, most currencies may also fall against the dollar.
DIvIDEND ETFsWith many energy ETFs down 30 to 40 percent over the past three months, many
dividend ETFs are back to levels seen at the lowest point of the 2008 financial cri-sis. Guggenheim Canadian Energy Income (ENY) is one example. The stocks in this fund have been hit twice over: once by the drop in energy prices and again by fears of dividend cuts. Dividends are likely to be cut, making them unattractive for those in-vestors seeking current income. However, long-term investors may want to think about the future yield on the ETF. By the time oil prices recover and dividends are raised, share prices could be significantly higher. Investors willing to wait and aver-age down if prices drop further can pick up shares at their lowest point in six years. The risk is that it could take several years for prices and dividends to recover.A similar fund in this category is JPMorgan Alerian MLP ETN (AMJ). It is an ETN, which is a debt instrument issued by JP-Morgan, designed to track the Alerian MLP Index. Shares are back to where they were at the start of 2013.
CONClusIONConservative investors shouldn’t jump into the energy market with a large posi-tion, expecting a fast rebound. First off, the energy market remains in a highly volatile state. Oil is hovering around $55 a barrel currently, and a drop to around $40 is now not unimaginable. In percentage terms, that would be a large drop, but it would cause bigger losses for stocks since more firms
will be unable to pump oil profitably at those levels. Aggressive investors may want to use this opportunity to find very inexpensive po-sitions, as long as they are willing to wait to see a return on their investment. At the nadir of the global financial crisis, oil prices bottomed out at $35 a barrel and were back to $50 a barrel a few months later. The shale revolution has greatly increased global energy supplies, but it is a revolution based on high prices, not new technology. Below $40 a barrel, a lot of shale produc-tion starts shutting down. Absent a global recession, demand will outstrip supply at these lower prices, and unless the current drop in oil prices heralds a recession that the data haven’t yet revealed, prices will rebound in 2015. Investors who want to bet on a rebound should make targeted bets on oil equities and avoid indirect exposure. Country funds could rebound along with oil prices, but they could also lag due to the drop in oil prices setting off a recession across the en-tire economy. Currency weakness or politi-cal instability could weigh on returns. Plain vanilla energy funds and subsector funds, such as the iShares or SPDRs, are the best way to play a rebound.
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