Gerd Leonhard www.mediafuturist.com Gerd Leonhard Presentation at RadioDays 2007 Music 2.0 and the Future of Radio? www.mediafuturist.com 1 Monday, January 21, 2008
Jan 15, 2015
Gerd Leonhard www.mediafuturist.com
Gerd LeonhardPresentation at RadioDays 2007
Music 2.0 and the Future of Radio?www.mediafuturist.com
1Monday, January 21, 2008
Gerd Leonhard Music & Media Futurist www.mediafuturist.com
Radio used to have a
Monopoly in Attention!
2Monday, January 21, 2008
Gerd Leonhard Music & Media Futurist www.mediafuturist.com
The problem is not the new ideas - but how to get rid of
the old ones.
So let’s start there.
3Monday, January 21, 2008
Gerd Leonhard Music & Media Futurist www.mediafuturist.com
Radio today: competition coming from all sides
Ipod
iphone
Car Audio Systems
Mobile Music
Wimax Music
Podcasts
Social Networks and Blogs
Satellite Radio
What’s good about all this: Choice
What’s bad about all this: The Paradox of Choice
4Monday, January 21, 2008
Gerd Leonhard Music & Media Futurist www.mediafuturist.com
5Monday, January 21, 2008
Gerd Leonhard Music & Media Futurist www.mediafuturist.com
Me, September 2007
Friction is Fiction
6Monday, January 21, 2008
Gerd Leonhard www.mediafuturist.com
SMS +41 79 79 353 84
Across the world, 1.1 Billion People use the Internet, 1.4
Billion watch TV, and 2.2 Billion use Mobile Phones
So HOW will RADIO be consumed in the Future, and what is its value proposition (both for music and for audio)
7Monday, January 21, 2008
Gerd Leonhard Music & Media Futurist www.mediafuturist.com
The Net Generation:
I program my media - it does not program me!
8Monday, January 21, 2008
Gerd Leonhard www.mediafuturist.com
The key drivers of Change• Broadband
• Mobility
• Social Networks
• Blogs and User Generated Content (UGC)
• Total Fragmentation of the Audiences
• Globalization (and localization)
• Convergence
9Monday, January 21, 2008
Gerd Leonhard www.mediafuturist.com
10Monday, January 21, 2008
Gerd Leonhard www.mediafuturist.com
11Monday, January 21, 2008
Gerd Leonhard Music & Media Futurist www.mediafuturist.com
W e a r e h e a d i n g i n t o a a c c e l e r a t i n g c o n v e r g e n c e o f A u d i o a n d V i d e o .
12Monday, January 21, 2008
Gerd Leonhard Music & Media Futurist www.mediafuturist.com
And in advertising
By 2008, online advertising spending in the US is expected to surpass radio advertising spending
13Monday, January 21, 2008
Gerd Leonhard Music & Media Futurist www.mediafuturist.com
A few shocking facts from the U.S.
14Monday, January 21, 2008
Gerd Leonhard Music & Media Futurist www.mediafuturist.com
In the US: tuning out of Radio is guaranteed
15Monday, January 21, 2008
Gerd Leonhard Music & Media Futurist www.mediafuturist.com
Radio ad revenues are not going away - they just won’t be growing.
16Monday, January 21, 2008
Gerd Leonhard Music & Media Futurist www.mediafuturist.com
and then comes...
17Monday, January 21, 2008
Gerd Leonhard www.mediafuturist.com
‘How’ will matter less and less. ‘What’ will matter more and more18Monday, January 21, 2008
Gerd Leonhard Music & Media Futurist www.mediafuturist.com
Remember when Radio had a
Monopoly in Attention?
19Monday, January 21, 2008
Gerd Leonhard Music & Media Futurist www.mediafuturist.com
Consumers inevitably use the best innovations that are available - legal
or not
20Monday, January 21, 2008
Gerd Leonhard Music & Media Futurist www.mediafuturist.com
three
21Monday, January 21, 2008
Gerd Leonhard Music & Media Futurist www.mediafuturist.com
Imagine a page, a button, a Canvas where you simply put all the stations that you
want to listen to.A canvas that you can always have with you (see Netvibes, iGoogle), no matter
how you receive the content.
Radio fills the need to filter Choice.
22Monday, January 21, 2008
Gerd Leonhard Music & Media Futurist www.mediafuturist.com
Consumers are, now more than ever before, seeking consolidated, trustworthy content, recognition and community - even more when it comes to mobile and Internet entertainment
This is still the biggest opportunity in Radio.
23Monday, January 21, 2008
Gerd Leonhard Music & Media Futurist www.mediafuturist.com
New technologies often disrupt ecosystems but always make the market bigger
24Monday, January 21, 2008
Gerd Leonhard www.mediafuturist.com
• Music formats will be either open or 100% compatible - DRM is the past
• Music as a service will become a default setting, and the ‘sell units’ paradigm is ending
• Creation of new revenue flows will be more important than controlling distribution
• The People formerly known as Consumers are gaining more power by the minute
• Music licensing will be drastically simplified
The De-Walling:
Isn’t Radio the definition of Music as a Service?
25Monday, January 21, 2008
Gerd Leonhard Music & Media Futurist www.mediafuturist.com
Thanks to the Net Generation & the Digital Natives,
Social Networks on the Internet are the
Next Radio26Monday, January 21, 2008
Gerd Leonhard Music & Media Futurist www.mediafuturist.com
Global Social Networking is already bigger than Radio in the U.S.
27Monday, January 21, 2008
Gerd Leonhard Music & Media Futurist www.mediafuturist.com
T h e P e o p l e f o r m e r l y
k n o w n a s L i s t e n e r s
( a k a C o n s u m e r s )
28Monday, January 21, 2008
Gerd Leonhard Music & Media Futurist www.mediafuturist.com
T h e M e d i u m f o r m e r l y
k n o w n a s R a d i o
29Monday, January 21, 2008
Gerd Leonhard Music & Media Futurist www.mediafuturist.com
S o o n , m o s t o f t h e m w i l l
g e t m o s t o f t h e i r ‘ R a d i o ’
v i a a n y d i g i t a l n e t w o r k
- t h e I n t e r n e t d o m i n a t e s30Monday, January 21, 2008
Gerd Leonhard Music & Media Futurist www.mediafuturist.com
Why is your station not broadcasting on Facebook, Lunarstorm, Sulekha.net or Orkut?
31Monday, January 21, 2008
Gerd Leonhard Music & Media Futurist www.mediafuturist.com
In all Media, Push is becoming Pull
Because
32Monday, January 21, 2008
Gerd Leonhard Music & Media Futurist www.mediafuturist.com
Just different words for the same thing...
BroadcastingStreamingPublic PerformanceListening
Tubesocking Playlisting Streamripping Podcatching Buffering Caching Renting
DownloadCopyDigital Phonographic Delivery (DPD)
33Monday, January 21, 2008
Gerd Leonhard Music & Media Futurist www.mediafuturist.com
The most important development in the Context of Radio Licensing is The Flat Rate for Digital Music
34Monday, January 21, 2008
Gerd Leonhard Music & Media Futurist www.mediafuturist.com
The Net Generation will not continue to pay a public Radio or TV License without archiving, time-shifting, place-shifting and device shifting - i.e. with build-in DELIVERY options
And for Public Radio
35Monday, January 21, 2008
Gerd Leonhard Music & Media Futurist www.mediafuturist.com
The Reality is:
• The Internet is a Giant Copy Machine• Digital Radio IS Distribution• From the listeners standpoint, Digital Radio
MUST offer time / place / device shifting
which is... Distribution• Case in point: RSS and the Google Reader
36Monday, January 21, 2008
Gerd Leonhard Music & Media Futurist www.mediafuturist.com
The bottom line:In media, Friction is now
Fiction37Monday, January 21, 2008
Gerd Leonhard Music & Media Futurist www.mediafuturist.com
Very soon - listening IS receiving
38Monday, January 21, 2008
Gerd Leonhard Music & Media Futurist www.mediafuturist.com
Radio is FreeRecords / CDs are not
If the Internet is the New Radio -
are Copies are ‘free’ ?
A Logic Challenge
39Monday, January 21, 2008
Gerd Leonhard Music & Media Futurist www.mediafuturist.com
EU Radio in 3-5 years
• 100% digital (in all its variations), and 50% converged with the Net
• All stations everywhere,anytime, any way• Video and Audio converge• Community features are a standard• Geography fades, borders become soft• License is both questioned and then expanded
(based on a Flat Rate for Digital Music)• Advertising2.0 emerges• Public Radio offers full archives on-demand
40Monday, January 21, 2008
Gerd Leonhard Music & Media Futurist www.mediafuturist.com
EU Radio in 10 years
• The term “Radio” simply refers to ‘curated programming’
• Public radio is the #1 curator of a huge digital library
• The ‘Copy versus Performance’ (listen versus own) distinction is over
• Everything is on demand - few or nothing remains scheduled
41Monday, January 21, 2008
Gerd Leonhard Music & Media Futurist www.mediafuturist.com
The trigger factors:
• Highspeed Wireless Internet everywhere• WiBro in the car• 4G Wireless cell phone networks fully
deployed• Radios with WLAN chips• Cell phones with DAB receivers (and WLAN)• Mobile computing devices that talk
effortlessly to each other• Web5.0 as easy as a TV remote control
How long?
42Monday, January 21, 2008
Gerd Leonhard Music & Media Futurist www.mediafuturist.com
What is good about Radio?
• Free or feels like free• Ubiquitous• Easy to use for anyone• Does not require engagement• Trusted, professional curators• Known brands• Local context• Strong tradition• Great way to discover music
What is good about Audio on the Internet?
****** *******
*********
*** **43Monday, January 21, 2008
Gerd Leonhard Music & Media Futurist www.mediafuturist.com
Radio’s Future is on the Internet, with the Net Generation, and with fully integrated Content Delivery
44Monday, January 21, 2008
Gerd Leonhard Music & Media Futurist www.mediafuturist.com
The 5 Inevitables
1.Radio must support time-shifting
2.Radio must support space-shifting
3.Radio must support sharing
4.Radio must support interactivity
5.Radio must support community
45Monday, January 21, 2008
Gerd Leonhard Music & Media Futurist www.mediafuturist.com
Radio is a perfect fit for the experience economy
46Monday, January 21, 2008
Gerd Leonhard Music & Media Futurist www.mediafuturist.com
This is where the growth is
47Monday, January 21, 2008
Gerd Leonhard Music & Media Futurist www.mediafuturist.com
• Getting (and keeping) attention• Trust• Influence• Reputation
The new currencies in Media
48Monday, January 21, 2008
Gerd Leonhard Music & Media Futurist www.mediafuturist.com
And advertising follows the trends of mass-personalizationSouce: Booz Hamilton Report
49Monday, January 21, 2008
Gerd Leonhard Music & Media Futurist www.mediafuturist.com
F r o m I m p r e s s i o n t o R e l e v a n c e
50Monday, January 21, 2008
Gerd Leonhard Music & Media Futurist www.mediafuturist.com
Integrate the audience! Provide a platform!
The NYT went ‘open access’ 3 days ago - after maintaining a wall for the past 5 years (incl. RSS)
51Monday, January 21, 2008
Gerd Leonhard Music & Media Futurist www.mediafuturist.com
You must take Radio’s walls down, too:• Archive Access• Web-based access on all platforms• Radio as social medium
Don’t hide behind any wall.
52Monday, January 21, 2008
Gerd Leonhard, Music & Media Futurist
Changes in the content industries
Content 1.0 Content 2.0Distribution Attention
Shelf Space Mind-share
Mass Marketing Monolog
Niche Marketing Dialog
Control Influence & Reputation
Control Attention & Trust
53Monday, January 21, 2008
Gerd Leonhard Music & Media Futurist www.mediafuturist.com
So if I ran the circus, I would...• Widgetize my radio stations (syndicate radio shows
via embedded players), turn them into channels on social networks
• Turn my listeners into active network members, roll out Engagement programs
• Offer archives of everything, no matter what• Mobilize my radio station• Demand extended licensing grants, and one-stop
licensing• Lobby for a digital music flat rate• Push converged service: audio, video, text• Build my brand and become an EXPERIENCE
54Monday, January 21, 2008