Museums Long Now 160608 Ac

1

The futures of the museum

Museum of the Long Now

June 02008

Andrew Curry

Director, Henley Centre HeadlightVision

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•Why futures work•The drivers of change•Some emerging scenarios•More detail on the trends

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Why do we do futures work

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The pragmatic reasonBecause we want to have agile and responsive organisations which can manage in uncertain environments and are able to identify opportunities and risks early.

The theoretical reason“We are all open systems theorists now”

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Organisations as open systems

System(e.g corporation, community, trade

association, or network of

stakeholders)

Task environment(e.g. competitors, regulatory agencies,

changing user base, technology changes

Wider social environment(a field of value shifts as people change

their world)

“For a system to be viable over time, it needs to:•constantly scan relevant environments for changes that might affect its viability•actively adapt to new information it receives in such a way that it also influences those environments”(Merrelyn Emery and Tom Devane)

Merrelyn Emeryand Tom Davane, “Search conference”, in Holman and Devane (eds) The Change Handbook

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The futures cycle

Implementing

Interpreting

Scanning

Understanding

Source: Henley Centre HeadlightVision

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The traditional view: command and control

Audiences

Talent

Resources

Adapted from Martin Dale, Europa, Europa

External environment

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The organisation is in the heart of its environment

Audiences Talent

Resources



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The drivers of change

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Using the framework to describe the trends

Audiences Talent

Resources



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External environment Squeezed resources

(falling disposable income)

Increased push for sustainability

Desire for well-being

Increasingly ubiquitous technologies

Increasing mobility and cultural diversity

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Audiences

Rise of mix and remix (users as producers)

Ageing population - but ageless

Desire for self-improvement

Fragmentation of leisure

Experiential economy (and shared experience

Increasing inequalities

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Using the framework to analyse the trends

ResourcesRenegotiation of work - the fluid workplace

Digital and distributed organisations

Corporatisation and marketisation of the arts

Growth of philanthropy

Museums as “knowledge assets” (and “the creative economy”)

Increasingly contested knowledge

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Talent

Urbanisation of culture (the rise of the city-regions)

Changing approaches to innovation

Changing gender and ethnic mix of the workforce

The artist as catalyst

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And by way of a reminder (see Annex for details)

Audiences Talent

ResourcesExternal environment Audience Resources Talent

Squeezed resources (falling disposable income)


Renegotiation of work - the fluid workplace





The management of talent

Desire for well-being Desire for self-improvement Corporatisation and marketisation of the arts



Fragmentation of leisure Growth of philanthropy The artist as catalyst


Experiential economy (and shared experience)


Increasing inequalities Increasingly contested knowledge

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Some implications from the trends analysis

• Increasingly mobile workforce • Gravitation towards cities seen as tolerant and outward

looking, and having good public spaces and culture• The focus on the rehabilitation of urban centres as

‘marketable’ popular cultural venues• ‘Safe’ cultural choices and the predominance of corporate

ownership can lead to the homogenising of cultural experiences

• Cultural innovation often occurs in temporary, marginal areas

Source: Henley Centre; Richard Florida, the Rise of the Creative Class; Chatterton & Hollands, Urban Nightscapes: Youth Pleasures, Pleasure Spaces and Corporate Power (2003); Archis 2003; Hakim Bey

Five scenarios

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Keeping the future in mind when managing

Implementing

Interpreting

Scanning

Understanding

Source: Henley Centre HeadlightVision

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Listening to the organisation – and the environment

Users/Customers Talent

Resources



“Creativeproducer”

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- The forum - local meeting and resource space, discovery, shared (social/free) experiences, relaerning of skills, disputed local meanings. Likely to have a virtual component which links those who identify with the area or are interested in it.

#1: The forum


• The rich club . The corporate museum, the museum which is aligned with 'high culture' high profile collections and exhibitions. In a world where it seems likely that knowledge will be more contested, this upholds traditional notions of the canon. (Several of the new Gulf museums might be in this space)

#2: The rich club


• Splinter groups -are museums created through tightly engaged communities of interest, could be purely virtual but may have a physical home for artefacts . In a world where travel is likely to be more difficult, 'diaspora' museums would be a special case. Krakow’s Galicia museum might be an example.

#3: Splinter groups


Aka the remix museum. It takes the notion of the 'extended' workplace (in space and time) to its logical conclusion, and extends it to remixed meanings, active reinterpretations, and open knowledge. Likely to be primarily virtual, but likely to extend itself into media and cultural artefacts such as books and lectures.

#4: The cut-up


• The challenges of sustainability and resource shortages, and the pursuit of social well-being, require new discourses and worldviews. The imaginarium is the home of social and interpretative innovation - drawing on diverse workforce and users, bringing history into the present as a source both of meaning and skills.

#5: Imaginarium

Instead of a conclusion

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“The purpose of looking at the

future is to disturb the present”

(Gaston Berger)


“There are places, there are things, that once you’ve heard

them, move into your future and wait for you to arrive. It may take

years, but sooner or later the meeting will happen”.

Russell Hoban

Annex: the trends in more detail

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Audiences Talent

Resources



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Audiences Talent


















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External environment Squeezed resources

(falling disposable income)


Desire for well-being



31© HCHLV 2008 Source: 1: PCC 2007, 2: www.parliament.uk

People believe that the government must tackle climate change, and a series of sustainability-based

regulation is following

12%

14%

66%

8%Individuals

Industries/companies

Government

Non Government/Non-Profit organisations/Local communitygroups

‘Who is most responsible for tackling climate change?’1

The UK Government is committed to protecting the environment and to

tackling climate change, both at home and abroad.

A Bill will be brought forward to make the United Kingdom the first country in

the world to introduce a legally binding framework to reduce carbon dioxide

emissionsDEFRA Press Office, 2007

The Sustainable Communities Act will work by giving increasing devolved powers that local

council representatives have to empower them to solve the problems within their local communities. One of the

measurements of sustainability is environmental protection2

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The search for authenticity

• The unusual is becoming more and more commonplace

• The concept of the ‘authentic’• What is authenticity?

− Defined origin? Handmade?

− Traditional? Unique?• Farmers makers are one

manifestation of consumers showing their support for individual and authentic products.

• Mass-produced and easily replicable products and services are under pressure to engage with consumers

Source: organicfood.co.uk


Wellbeing: the physical health angle

• There has been a dramatic increase in the number of overweight and obese people in the UK:− Currently one out of five adults

diagnosed as clinically obese

• People are increasingly concerned about their physical health and fitness:− In 2004,1 in 3 people

successfully changed the amount of exercise that they do and 1 in 5 tried but failed

− Membership of both private and public gyms has grown by a quarter since 2002, climbing 8 per cent during last year alone to more than 7m people Physical activity plan

2927

33 32

27

31

26 26

31

2120

25 25

1719 19

16

25

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

total15-24

25-3435-44

45-5455-64

65+Men

Women

Have successfully changed: Have tried but failed

%

‘Changes made in relation to the amount of exercise you do:’

Source: Henley Centre, PCC 2004, Financial Times, July 19, 2005 ,www.bbc.co.uk


The softer side of wellbeing

• People crave wellbeing in a time and energy deficit culture:− 52% of people agreed ‘I am

so tired in the evenings I often don't have the energy to do much’ compared with 46% in 2001

• People are increasingly retuning to nature as relief from the complexity and clamour of life:− There is a growing interest in seasonal

food and the number of UK members of the Slow Food movement grew by over 900% between 1999 and 2004

• There is a discernable ‘search for meaning’ in people’s lives

• People’s increasingly see leisure time as a route to gain wellbeing and find sense in their lives

Source: BISG Press Releases, May 2005, SlowFood, 2004 statistics

http://www.melbournefoodandwine.com.au/html/2242-home-page.asp





























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There is growing household connectedness but also a continuing digital divide

• In 2007, nearly 15 million households in Great Britain (61%) had Internet access1

• 84% of UK households with Internet access had a broadband connection in 2007, up from 69% in 2006, and 85% of households have digital TV1

• However, experiences of the new media world are often unequal, and digital exclusion remains a challenge

− Ofcom has found that just 28% of people over 65 have internet access1

− Social group AB is more open to using the widest range of communication methods; social group DE are much less likely to want to communicate via the internet and email2

UK residential internet connections1

Source: 1: Ofcom 2007; 2: IIPS 2008

4 in 5 people are concerned about how the personal information about them that is held on

company databases is stored and used

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The ‘always on’ society

• Mobile phones, the blackberry and increasingly empowered consumers are driving our 24/7 ‘always on’ culture

• Similar expectations around access to companies and experiences

• This raises questions about social interaction− How will we choose to

interact in the future?• Starting to see a backlash

against ‘always on’− Consumers against mobile

phones on flights− Can/should arts venues

provide sanctuary?

% agree with statement: ‘I like to be contactable on my mobile

all the time’

70

37

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

Age 15-19 Average adult

%

Source: OfCom 2006, PCC 2003

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Audiences



Desire for self-improvement


Experiential economy (and shared experience

Increasing inequalities

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Consumers are increasingly creating and sharing their own content, particularly online

Technological applications are

enabling consumers to create and filter

content that is relevant to them and block out

that which is not

We are starting to witness the arrival of a

new generation of bedroom auteurs: movie directors,

composers, scribblers and artists of all kinds

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DIY media and personalisation

• Consumers now expect to be able to personalise their media consumption

− A general shift from ‘push’ media to ‘pull’ media

• There has been a huge growth in the user generated content (UGC) online, facilitated by increasingly widespread access to broadband

• UGC sites such as You Tube and Facebook have grown in popularity at a rapid rate

• For traditional forms of media such as TV, there has been a growth in self-scheduling of content

• It can be harder to reach people, and they want to engage increasingly on their own terms

Source: Forrester 2006

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The British population is ageing, but at the same time age is no longer a key determinant of lifestyle

Source: Euromonitor 2008, 2: PCC 2007, 3: The Times, September 2006

55% of UK respondents, and 57% of those over 65, agree that is

important to them to maintain a ‘youthful lifestyle’2

The UK over 50s population spend around £240bn every year on leisure

and account for over 40% of all consumer spending3

5

15

25

35

1950 1970 1990 2010 2030 2050

% of UK population over 65 years of age

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‘Younger’ longer

• Traditional stereotypes of ‘old’ are changing

• With improving levels of general health and increasing social diversity, many will act in ways that defy that physical age

• Celebrity culture has led to the mainstreaming of cosmetic surgery

• Older consumers are bigger spenders than they used to be:

− SKIers (Spending the Kids’ Inheritance) are emerging

“Baby boomers have traded their right to greater wisdom, finesse, and

accumulated experiences for the right to stay young.

And the youngsters have traded their youth culture for the right to be taken

seriously. We used to have a generation gap, now we have a generation deal.”

Lada Gorlenko, Design & Usability Consultant, IBM

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The cult of self improvement

• Replacing the ‘bluffers’ guide’ mentality with a sense that improving your own self-worth is a valuable way to spend your time

• Accessible to everyone− Life coaches − Evening classes− Learning holidays − Growing interest in books

and book clubs• Can the arts sector do more

to capitalise on this trend?

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The experience economy

• People are increasingly choosing to spend more on ‘experiences’ rather than material goods

• The pleasure of consumption is becoming paramount

• Does culture count as retail or leisure? – or both? − Witness the growth of

the museum shop• ‘Bite-size’ arts and culture,

or elaborate experiences?• How might an economic

downturn impact the experience economy?

“Consumers are often fully aware that they are more interested in consuming aura than

objects, sizzle than steak, meaning than material.” 4

The proportion of income spent on leisure - including theatre, cinema, holidays, sport and

education fees - has doubled since 1982 from 7% to 14% in the year to March 2005 ¹

Sources: ‘Britons spending more on leisure, less on food’ The Guardia November 2005,, ‘A report on the 1999-2000 family expenditure survey’ ONS, PCC data 2004, HCHLV executive interview



• Rising number of Britons taking regional holidays:− The number of Leisure trips

taken by UK citizens to the regional tourist boards increased from 154 million in 1996 to 167 million trips in 2002

• Expansion of the tourism industry leads to greater diversification of leisure:− People want a holiday suited

to them as individuals

No. UK residents visiting UK tourist board regions

Heart of England

3

3

8

7

6

14

7

11

6

13

4

5

14

11

13

22

17

13

13

20

0 5 10 15 20 25

Northumbria

North West

East of England

London

South Eas England

1991 2001

Cumbria

Yorkshire

Southern

South West England

millions

“Demand is growing in the

tailor-made travel market”

Holiday company Thomson, 6th October 2004

Source: ONS, Regional Trends 38



Rise in niche activities - Power gliding

- Jet-skiing- Advanced mountain

biking activitiesTides of ‘fad interests’

- Such as ‘all terrain boarding’

http://www.bungeezone.com/pics/Images/liquid/Angel_guru_jump_by_liquid_team.jpg




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Widening income inequalities

Source: 1: Joseph Rowntree Foundation, 2005, 2: www.poverty.org.uk

The proportion of children in low income households has fallen from 34% in 1998/99 to 30% in 2005/06. Children remain more

likely than adults to live in low income households

Around two-fifths of people from ethnic minorities live in low income households,

twice the rate for white people 2

Overall earnings inequalities are widening

The overall distribution of income has changed little over the last decade. The poorest tenth have less than 2% of total

income 2

The proportion of people not on housing benefit but cannot afford to buy anything above the cheapest

10% of houses1

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Growing income disparity

• The growing disparity between the richest and poorest in society

• Dramatic divisions of access and inequity across UK society

• Increasingly strong public awareness of the infringement of rights and means of reparation

• Attracting consumers from ethnic minority backgrounds and disabled people is a key aim

4.4

3.2

3.5

3.0

20

25

24

30

10 5 0 5 10 15 20 25 30

1979

1990

1996

2010

%

% share of total income by household Bottom 10%

Top 10%

Source: ONS, Households Below Average Income;

The wealthiest 1% of the UK population hold 23% of the

nation’s wealth


Entitlement: the return of the public

• Just as economic shares become more unequal, there is compensation in the public realm

• Human Rights Act (and Freedom of Information) are about forms of legal and government access

• Rights of physical access to land and buildings are increasingly embedded in law

• The language of ‘cultural entitlement’ is common in the arts

% share of total income by household

1979

1990

1996

2010

4.4

3.2

3.5

3.0

20

25

24

30

10 5 0 5 10 15 20 25 30%

Top 10% Bottom 10%

“Culture alone can give people the means better to understand and engage with life… which can help us slay the sixth giant of modern times – poverty of aspiration.” Tessa Jowell MP

Source: ONS “Households Below Average Income” 2000/01, Report of the 2002-3 Britain Day Visits Survey, TGI BMRB 2004

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ResourcesRenegotiation of work - the fluid workplace


Corporatisation and marketisation of the arts



Increasingly contested knowledge

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Increasingly fluid work structures

• Moving from rigid to fluid organisational structures - new ways of using resources

• Hot-desking and sharing other resources

• Temporary collectives to fulfill specific pieces of work, with temporary use of resources

• The rise of dynamic, short-term employment on a project basis in the creative industries

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Competitive cultural funding landscape

• Declining business investment in the arts and cultural sector is a major concern

• The sector is facing an increasingly competitive funding landscape

• Cultural organisations in the UK rely heavily on one source of funding to support their operations (in most cases, public funding).

− Has worked well in the past for many cultural organisations

− Makes them vulnerable to social shifts or evolution in the funding landscape

Source: Arts & Business, HCHLV

Business cash sponsorship experiencedno growth in real terms in 2005/06. All

other components of business investmentexperienced a significant decreaseArts & Business Private Investment Benchmarking

Survey 2005/06

“…why havebusiness investment figures fallen in realterms? Is this a minor blip, or part of a

downward drift? I sense a blip…”A&B Chief Executive, Colin Tweedy

“Most arts organisations are used to delivering rather more

than they are paid for.”John Tusa

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Networks and digital organisations

• ICT and the rise of networks can enable organisations to move away from in-house expertise− But this doesn’t mean they

always should• Careful consideration of what is

core to the brand and its values before decisions are made− Relevant for individual arts

organisations, museums− Moving from a linear

structure to a series of inter-relationships between you, your suppliers, your customers

Supplier Supplier Supplier

Purchasing

Customers

Finance

HR

Manufacture

Marketing

Sales/Service

Brand

Source: BT

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• Traditional private investment sources in the charity sector are rapidly changing

• Growing emphasis on partnerships, the role of venture philanthropists and clear return on investment (RoI)

• Individual giving has become a substantial source of fundraising income− has the potential to become

the single most important source of funding in the future

Source: www.mobilebristol.co.uk/flash.html Source: Arts & Business Private Investment Benchmarking Survey 2005/06, The Guardian

“High-income parents are enrolling their children in philanthropy workshops designed to teach them how to use their wealth to do good. A new generation of philanthropists

are being encouraged to … consider which charities might benefit from their

money...demand is spiralling, with growing numbers of wealthy individuals matched by

an increasingly professional approach to philanthropy in Britain.”

The Guardian, Dec 2007

“There is much to be said for seeing artists as servants of the

innovation process”

John Thackara

“There is a continuing unease about raising funds from the private sector. But if it is faced head-on, with confidence and

honesty, the relationship between the giver and the asker can be strong, positive,

supportive and enjoyable.”

John Tusa

54© HCHLV 2007


Talent






Urbanisation of culture

• Competition:− Liverpool won the competition to be

European Capital of Culture 2008.− It is estimated that the Culture title

could net Liverpool an extra 1.7 million visitors to the city.

• Cultural developments and a revived interest in architecture:− The Baltic Flour Mills and the Sage,

Newcastle Gateshead− Millenuium Stadium, Cardiff− Imperial War Museum North and

Urbis, Manchester− The Lowry Centre, Salford

• Increasing interest in the ‘city region’ as a driver of regional success− Urban quality of life regarded as

economic driver

Source: ERM Economics 2004, www.bbc.co.uk


People crave a distinctive identity for their urban environment

• A backlash against ‘clone towns’:− Four out of 10 of the nation's high

streets are "clone towns", according to research conducted by the New Economics Foundation.

− In June 2005 Exeter was shamed as the greatest clone high street in the country

“Just as farmers’ markets and specialist retailers are

popping up all over the place…there is still room for switched-on, independent

booksellers.”

Source: The Bookseller, Novmber 2004, http://www.thebookcase.co.uk, Guardian, July 2000, www.countrybookshop.co.uk

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• The importance of horizontal, non-hierarchical structures and fluid organisational processes

• Organisational innovation needs clear principles

• The ‘holarchic’ organisation - each fragment of the organisation reflecting the whole

“You can’t socially re-engineer these systems

without understanding them intimately. You need to know what it’s like to struggle with

the pressures at the grass roots”.

Prof Henry Mintzberg

58© HCHLV 2008

The ‘corporatisation’ of the arts

• Increasing professionalism of the arts

• Changing expectations from funders

• Wider social trends such as the importance attached to formal qualifications

• Emphasis on management skills at the expense of professional expertise − A trend seen in both the public

sector and the private sector

− A ‘site of struggle’ which creates permanent organisational tensions

Managers

Professionals

Targets Budgets

+ +

_ _

“There’s no excuse for amateurism any more, no room for those who shy at the

thought that the arts might, indeed, be a business.”

John Tusa

59© HCHLV 2008

Renegotiation of the workplace

• Change from fixed contracts to more negotiated relationships

• Large rise in part-time and temporary workers

• Employees demand greater flexibility and work/life balance

• Office structures are moving towards ‘club’ environments − Space for meeting, thinking

etc

− Leisure facilities, shops, dry-cleaning, crèche facilities

-2461

1046

-1415

1381

2792

4173

776 629

1405

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

Male Female Total

Full time Part time Self employed

000s

Change in employment status, 1971-2005

Source: ONS; Henley Centre, PCC 2001; DTI projections

60© HCHLV 2008

Changing gender balance of the workplace

• More women are working than ever before− Although the number of women

working in “cultural industries” has increased in recent years, they still make up only 36% of the cultural industries’ workforce.

• The gender pay gap has been decreasing steadily since the 1975 Equal Pay Act, but there is still a significant difference between men and women’s salaries− The full-time pay gap has closed

considerably from 29.5% in 1975, to 17.2% in 2006

57

51 50

43

49 50

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

1982 1992 2002

Male Female

% of UK workforce

Source: EEDA “Equality in focus”; GEM Report UK 2002; Nomis, The Gender Pay Gap report 2001 (Women and Equality Unit), The Independent Theatre Council Report 2001, Facts about Men and Women in Great Britain – A report by the Equailty Commission 2006

61© HCHLV 2008

Increasingly diverse workforce?

• There has been an increase in the number of migrant workers, particularly from EU countries post ascension

• 4% of the arts workforce is from a minority ethnic group. This broadly reflects the proportion of the national workforce from an ethnic minority group (5%)

− Certain cultural groups are under-represented in the arts. Indians make up 21% of the total ethnic minority workforce but only 19% of those working in the arts

− Black and ethnic minorities have very little decision-making input into performance companies. Only 4% of Artistic Directors and 6% of Board Members working in the theatre industry are black.

Source: ONS Population and Migration; DIW Institute, BBC News August 2006 , Independent Theatre Council Report 2001

Over 600,000 people have come to work in the UK from

the eight nations which joined the European Union in 2004

“There is little diversity among entrants to the museum workforce. Museums want more people from

minority-ethnic backgrounds, more people from poorer backgrounds, more disabled people – and more

men…There is work to do to promote museum careers to a wider range of potential entrants, but this

needs to be supported by accessible entry routes.”

The Tomorrow People: Entry to the museum workforce, Maurice Davies, Feb 2007

62© HCHLV 2008


• Traditional concepts of the artist

• The importance of individuals and artistic organisations as creative catalysts

• Organisational, facilitative and financial strands of the creative process

• The role of creative catalyst in the growing integration of arts initiatives with wider social initiatives

63© HCHLV 2008

The rise of the city region

• Increasingly mobile workforce • Gravitation towards cities seen as

tolerant and outward looking, and having good public spaces and culture

• The focus on the rehabilitation of urban centres as ‘marketable’ popular cultural venues

• ‘Safe’ cultural choices and the predominance of corporate ownership can lead to the homogenising of cultural experiences

• Cultural innovation often occurs in temporary, marginal areas

Source: Henley Centre; Richard Florida, the Rise of the Creative Class; Chatterton & Hollands, Urban Nightscapes: Youth Pleasures, Pleasure Spaces and Corporate Power (2003); Archis 2003; Hakim Bey

“Historic, residual and alternative forms of nightlife

are increasingly marginalised… over-

regulated till they disappear… or bought out under the weight of urban

renewal and gentrified leisure”

64© HCHLV 2008

Increasing diversity of UK society

• The ethnic minority and foreign born population in the UK is growing− Between 1991-2001, the

ethnic minority population grew by 53% from 3 million to 4.6 million people¹

− In 2001, 4.9 million (8.3 per cent) of the total population of the UK were born overseas. This is more than double the 2.1 million (4.2 per cent) in 1951

• Although there is regional concentration of BMEs, trended data indicates segregation is not a feature in Britain

Source: UK census 2001

The non-White population: by ethnic group, April 2001, UK

65© HCHLV 2007

In summary

Audiences Talent


















Creating better futures

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