27 th April 2009 Taking out the rubbish: Municipal waste composition, trends & futures Julian Parfitt
27th April 2009
Taking out the rubbish:
Municipal waste composition, trends &
futures
Julian Parfitt
MSW trends, futures: 27th April 2009
What’s covered?
1. Municipal waste composition
• Historical trends
• Current & recent compositional estimates
2. Municipal waste trends 1983-2008
• Time series
• Influences on trend
3. Waste futures?
4. Conclusions
MSW trends, futures: 27th April 2009
Dustbin composition 1930-2000
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
Fines Misc Paper Putresc Metals Glass Textiles Plastics
1. Trend in ‘dust bin’ waste 1930 to 2000 : England
(kg / hhld/ week)
MSW trends, futures: 27th April 2009
1. How reliable are compositional data?
Difficult at national scale
Different waste analysis methods, sample selection, waste
streams covered
Statistical uncertainty around estimates
Time trends more possible if repeat-sample at individual
community level, few instances:
• RIVM study, monitoring since 1971
MSW trends, futures: 27th April 2009
1. More recently published UK compositional data (% wt)
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
munic ipal was te 2006/07: Defra
R eview: s oon to be publis hed
munic ipal was te E ngland s elected
s tudies 2003-2005
hous ehold was te E ngland s elected
s tudies 2000-2002
munic ipal was te Wales 2000/01
F ines
Other was tes
Mis c non-c ombus tible
Mis c combus tible
F urniture
S anitary
Haz ardous
WE E E
Wood
Textiles
P las tic s
Metals
G las s
C ard
P aper
G arden was te
F ood was te
Soon to be published:
Review of Municipal
Waste Component
Analyses (Defra)
MSW trends, futures: 27th April 2009
1. Differences between national datasets
Extent to which different MSW waste streams covered
Waste categories used
Sampling strategies (at kerbside, at CA/ HWRC)
Sampled weights
National coverage: authority types/ collection system
types
MSW trends, futures: 27th April 2009
1. Defra research: Municipal Waste Composition: Review of
Municipal Waste Component Analyses
Aims and objectives: pulling together all of the datasets:
1. Evaluation of methodologies
2. Mapping exercise
3. Critical review of previous work undertaken
4. Develop best estimates of UK MSW composition +
5. Gap analysis
6. Recommendations for future design of municipal waste analysis
programme
MSW trends, futures: 27th April 2009
1. What is thrown away in residual bin?
(2003-05 selected compositional data sets: England, pre-dating
Defra 2009 review)
Kitchen peelings
15%
Kitchen cooked
15%
Paper and board
20%
Plastics
13%
Other
7%
Garden waste
7%
Glass
6%
Metals
4%
Nappies & what they contain
4%
Textiles
3%
Other Combustible
3%
Rubble and other non-combustible
3%
Food Waste
30%
MSW trends, futures: 27th April 2009
1. Residual bin: % Biodegradable Municipal Waste
(2003-05 selected compositional data: England, pre-dating
Defra’s 2009 review)
Kitchen peelings
23%
Kitchen cooked
23%
Paper and board
30%
Garden waste
10%
Nappies
5%
Other + fines
3% Textiles
3%
Other Combustible
3%
Food Waste
46% BMW
MSW trends, futures: 27th April 2009
2. Municipal waste trends
‘Waste Not Want Not’ 2002: 2-3% / year increases
Waste Strategy 2007: 0.5% (base case)
Elsewhere in UK: higher?
• What are links between GDP, disposable income & MSW?
• What role local policies/ drivers?
• What role national policies/ drivers?
MSW trends, futures: 27th April 2009
Trends are difficult to interpret due to reporting biases and
changes in reporting practices
Changes in reporting regime
Different methods of grossing-up final figures
2. Municipal waste trends
MSW trends, futures: 27th April 2009
2. Trends in residual household waste 1983 -93: England
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993
Year
% R
esp
on
din
g &
% W
aste
Weig
hed
12.5
13
13.5
14
14.5
15
15.5
Millio
ns o
f T
on
nes p
er
An
nu
m
% Weigh
% Responding
Total
Local Government Act 1985
MSW trends, futures: 27th April 2009
2. Municipal waste trend England,1995/96 – 2008/09*
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
1995 96 1996 97 1997 98 1998 99 1999 00 2000 01 2001 02 2002 03 2003 04 2004 05 2005 06 2006 07 2007 08 2008 09
Total household Total municipal
*provisional estimates
MSW trends, futures: 27th April 2009
2. Municipal waste trends 1995/96- 2008/09 by waste stream
0
5,000,000
10,000,000
15,000,000
20,000,000
25,000,000
30,000,000
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
RCV residual other hhld CA residual
non hhld residual hhld recycling /composting non hhld recycling /composting
Rapid reductions in
CA residual
waste
Reductions in RCV
residual waste
MSW trends, futures: 27th April 2009
2. Understanding Waste Growth at Local Authority Level -
WR0121(final stages April/May 2009)
Explores reported household waste trends 2000-07 in
relation to local waste policy influences:
total waste arisings and waste arisings per household
changes to household waste collection infrastructure &
collection policies
key demographic changes, including in-migration &
household numbers
locally held municipal waste statistics
changes to the reporting of municipal waste statistics
MSW trends, futures: 27th April 2009
3. What might future waste look like?
Scenarios to understand factors, range of possibilities
Scenarios are not predictive
Highlight links between lifestyles, households & household waste
ESTO (2003) Scenarios of household waste generation in
2020, June 2003
Brook Lyndhurst (2007) Lifestyle Scenarios: The Futures for Waste Composition - WR0104, March 2007
MSW trends, futures: 27th April 2009
3. Influences on future household waste
Just about everything………
• Economy
• Lifestyles
• Demographics
• In-migration
• Politics
• Environment
• Population growth
• Growth in household numbers
• Technology
• Collection strategies
MSW trends, futures: 27th April 2009
3. What might future waste look like?
Need to consider current arisings & links with consumer
expenditure patterns
…..but dangers of not considering less certain / high
consequence changes (technological & societal)
MSW trends, futures: 27th April 2009
Function Subdivision Sort of waste Waste type
Feeding
Eating
Kitchen waste Organic waste
Bread
Food packaging Paper and cardboard
Plastics
Glass
Metals
Small Durable Goods Ceramics
Drinking
Drink packaging Paper and cardboard
Plastics
Glass
Metals
Small Durable Goods Glass
Plastics
Recreation
Pet waste Other
Yard waste Organic waste
Care
Health
Medicines Various
Packaging Various
Personal
Cosmetics Various
Diapers Paper and cardboard
Cleaning Various
Infotainment
Personal
Newspapers Paper and cardboard
Electronics Small Chemical Waste
Books Paper and cardboard
Commercial
Advertising Paper and cardboard
Post Waste Paper and cardboard
Plastic bags and sacks Plastics
Electronics
Clothing
Disposal Textile
Leather
Not Allocated
3. Functions in the home & waste
types generated (ESTO 2003)
Waste driven by way in which household needs are fulfilled
MSW trends, futures: 27th April 2009
36.3%
22.5%
15.5%
8.4%
3.4%
13.9%
Feeding
Recreation
Infotainment
Care
Clothing
Not Allocated
3. Household waste composition by function (ESTO 2003)
MSW trends, futures: 27th April 2009
MSW trends, futures: 27th April 2009
3. Consequences of different scenarios by 2020 (ESTO 2003)
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
1995 base 2020 baeline media@home on the road comfort community home sweet home
compostable waste packaging paper white & brown goods other
MSW trends, futures: 27th April 2009
Brook Lyndhurst (2007)
MSW trends, futures: 27th April 2009
4. Conclusions
Waste composition: changes significant through time &
few of these were predicted
Current residual bin: food waste of prime importance (&
wt) & ‘feeding function’ dominates
Future waste?
• most likely contains elements of all scenarios
MSW trends, futures: 27th April 2009
Julian Parfitt
Resource Futures Ltd
Tel: 07903 037 436
www.resourcefutures.co.uk
MSW trends, futures: 27th April 2009
Thank you