Municipal Case Studies: CLIMATE CHANGE AND THE PLANNING ... · Basements were flooded, parts of roads were washed away and telephone poles were toppled. The peak water level in this

Municipal Case Studies:

CLIMATE CHANGE AND THE PLANNING PROCESS

New Brunswick

Even though almost everyone grumbles

about our local weather, we have become

accustomed to it. We have adapted.

Depending on where we live and the season, we

sport umbrellas, snow boots or ball caps. Our

homes are insulated, crops are irrigated, and we

shop in weather-conditioned, indoor malls. So,

when scientists tell us our climate is changing

and about to change more quickly, it is difficult

to grasp the significance in our daily lives.

Our regional climate, wherever we live in

Canada, has always been changing — gradually

and naturally. But, in the past 20 years,

international scientific research has determined

that the pace of climate change is accelerating,

with some areas becoming more and more

vulnerable. With the early 2007 release of the

latest report from the Intergovernmental Panel

on Climate Change (IPCC), the reality of climate

change and the growing challenges of adaptation

are increasingly recognized and accepted. So too

is the need for national governments to respond

with efforts to mitigate these effects.

Five Municipal Case Studies

In 2004, the Earth Sciences Sector of Natural Resources Canada (NRCan) and the Canadian

Institute of Planners agreed to co-sponsor ways to help build capacity at a local government

level related to planning for climate change. This partnership led to a number of activities,

including this series of case study brochures. The brochures have been produced to help

community planners learn more about scientific practices and terminology, along with ways

they might approach assessing local risks and developing locally appropriate responses.

There are five case study communities. In different ways and for different reasons, these

communities are already experiencing the effects of accelerated climate change.

In Calgary, warmer weather and changing precipitation patterns are affecting the

city’s sole water supply.

In Salluit, a Northern Quebec coastal community, rapidly melting permafrost is

threatening to undermine existing infrastructure.

In Delta and Graham Island, BC and along the New Brunswick coast of the Gulf of St.

Lawrence, rising sea levels and increased storm frequency and severity are impacting

habitats, property and infrastructure.

Each case study was led by scientists and involved the participation of local planners,

municipal managers/engineers and, in some cases, elected officials. Wherever possible, the

study included broader community consultation through workshops and focus groups.

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Closer to home, in urban and rural settings across

the country, discussions will be focussed on what

local climate changes are likely, how they will

impact our physical and built environments, and

how we should respond. It is easier to discuss

what is happening locally and what we can do

about it, instead of grappling with the monumental

global challenge of greenhouse gas emissions.

Community planners and municipal engineers will

find themselves at the crux of local discussions,

especially in relation to assessing potential impacts

and developing policy responses. The vocabulary

of these discussions will embrace terms such as

“vulnerabilities”, “maladaptations”, “mitigations”,

“risk management” and “adaptive capacity”.

Forward-looking local governments are starting

to factor anticipated climate changes into their

planning and budgeting. However, few, if

any, local governments have climate change

researchers within their administrations. Most

rely on research undertaken by other levels of

government and universities.

Municipal Case Studies – Climate Change/New Brunswick �

Table of ContentsIntroduction ..............................2

The Setting for This Research ....4

Research Methods ....................6

Relevance for Other Communities ................10

Role of Community Planners ..11

Sources, Contacts and Additional Resources ..............12

Glossary of Case Study Terms ...................13

Glossary of Climate Change Terms ...........13

Summary Storm-surge flooding and coastal erosion affect many low-lying areas of Canada’s coastlines. The

coasts of Nova Scotia, Prince Edward Island (PEI) and New Brunswick in the southern Gulf of St.

Lawrence are among Canada’s most vulnerable to sea-level rise. The 190 km Northumberland

Strait, varying from 14 to 64 km in width, separates Prince Edward Island from New Brunswick

and Nova Scotia. In 2000, two powerful and destructive storms ravaged coastal communities

along the strait, as well as the southern Gulf. These, and several major storms that followed in

short succession from 2001 to 2004, demonstrated existing vulnerability and highlighted the need

for adaptation strategies to deal with climate change and accelerated sea-level rise.

“Impacts of Sea-Level Rise and Climate Change on the Coastal Zone of Southeastern New

Brunswick” was a three-year study undertaken by scientists and researchers from over a dozen

government and academic groups. The project was carried out in consultation with municipalities

and planning commissions, community economic organizations and stewardship groups from

Kouchibouguac National Park to Cape Jourimain (the entire Gulf coast of New Brunswick south of

the Miramichi).

New Brunswick has approximately 5,500 km of coastline, stretching between the Gulf of St.

Lawrence and the Bay of Fundy. Nearly 60% of the population lives within 50 km of the coast.

Approximately 70% of the province’s tourism, worth nearly three-quarters of a billion dollars

annually, is tied directly to the coastal experience, where attractions depend on scenic beauty, as

well as clean beaches and waterways.

Coastal features, such as beaches, dunes, barrier islands and salt marshes, act as natural buffers,

helping to reduce the impact of storm surges, flooding and erosion. They also provide essential

habitat for land and marine plants and animals, some of which are rare or endangered. Some

features, such as beaches and dunes, are prone to erosion. Development in these areas can disrupt

the natural eco-system balance, causing water-quality problems or greater risk of damage.

The goals of the project were to forecast likely climate changes, anticipate their physical impacts

in relation to sustainable management and community resilience, and identify potential adaptation

strategies. This involved rigorous scientific research into how the coastal area has changed in past

years and making predictions about how it will change over the next 100 years. Using very precise

surveying methods, some members of the research team constructed flood-risk maps to identify the

extent of flooding for water levels in 10 cm increments, up to four metres above mean sea level.

Other members of the team collaborated with local industry, government and community members

to obtain an understanding of priorities and local capacity to adapt to accelerated changes.

Municipal Case Studies – Climate Change/New Brunswick�

IntroductionRising global sea level is one of the most confidently predicted impacts of climate warming and

has major implications for coastal communities around the world. The Third Assessment Report of

the IPCC (2001) predicted an increase in global sea level between 1990 and 2100 of 9 to 88 cm,

with a central value of 48 cm. Normalized to 100 years, this central value is greater than two and

half times the average rate of global sea-level rise during the 20th century. Even if later estimates

fall on the low side of the range above, the rate of sea-level rise along the New Brunswick coast

will accelerate.

On the night of January 21st, 2000, a deep low-pressure system passed northward across the

Maritimes causing havoc in numerous coastal locations. The storm-surge was most severe

in Northumberland Strait, and caused record high water levels and flooding along the New

Brunswick coast. A striking feature of this storm was the extent of sea-ice ride-up and pile-up

onshore. In places, shore ice swept over the crest of coastal dunes, causing significant damage

that exceeded any in the recollection of coastal residents. Residents were evacuated; businesses,

shopping malls and schools shut down; and elective surgeries were cancelled. Subsequent claims

paid by government were almost $1.7 million – a small fraction of the total economic damages.

Eight months later, on October 29th, another powerful “nor’easter” hit the southern Gulf of St.

Lawrence coast. Sustained gale-force winds, combined with a high tide, flooded river estuaries to

record levels. Along the shore and rivers, numerous buildings and structures sustained damage.

Basements were flooded, parts of roads were washed away and telephone poles were toppled.

The peak water level in this storm was not as high as in January, but (without sea ice) it was

accompanied by powerful waves and caused severe damage to coastal infrastructure and fragile

ecosystems. This time, government paid claims of almost $2.4 million.

The project had ten sub-components, each headed by a senior scientist:

sea-level rise and land subsidence;

storm-surge, wind, wave and sea ice climatologies;

storm-surge and meteorological modelling;

elevation surveys and flood-risk mapping;

coastal erosion;

ecosystem impacts;

economic and community impacts;

adaptation strategies; and

building adaptive capacity.

The last component integrates results of the first eight, providing valuable information to help with

planning for future human settlement along the coast, as well as management of wildlife and plant

habitats in the coastal zone. The flood-risk maps are now available to coastal communities and

regional planners to assist in developing long-term adaptation strategies. Details of the project,

including the project final report, can be found at the New Brunswick Sea-Level Rise Project website (http://atlantic-web1.ns.ec.gc.ca/slr/default.asp?land+En&n=61BB75EF-11).

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These were not isolated incidents. Similar storms have occurred since, most notably in late

December 2004. The southern Gulf coast will continue to experience extreme weather events,

perhaps more often due to climate change and rising sea levels. The primary impacts are likely to

be some combination of:

higher and more frequent flooding of wetlands and adjacent shores;

expanded flooding during severe storms and high tides;

increased wave energy in the near-shore area;

decreased sea-ice protection leading to increased wave attack;

accelerated coastal retreat, including dune and cliff erosion, breaching of coastal barriers

and destabilization of coastal inlets;

intrusion of salt water into rivers and coastal freshwater aquifers;

damage to coastal infrastructure — bridges, wharves and roads;

impacts on bird and wildlife habitats; and

broad impacts on the coastal economy — tourism, business and personal property.

Environment Canada acted as the coordinator of all components of the scientific research and

community consultations. The following partners had key and lasting roles in the program:

Beaubassin Planning Commission

Kent Planning Commission

Université de Moncton

Laurentian University

University of New Brunswick

Mount Allison University

Centre of Geographic Sciences (Nova Scotia Community College)

Dalhousie University

La Dune de Bouctouche Irving Eco-Centre

Province of New Brunswick

Environment Canada

Natural Resources Canada

Parks Canada

Department of Fisheries and Oceans

Public Safety and Emergency

Preparedness Canada

Government of Canada’s

Climate Change Impacts and

Adaptation Program

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Extreme winter

storms have created

havoc along the New

Brunswick coast of

Northumberland

Strait. The low-lying

coast is susceptible to

inundation and erosion.


The scientific team met at key points during the study to share emerging findings and add new

information. During and immediately after the storms of January and October 2000, November

2001 and December 2004, several team members travelled to the most affected areas and

gathered invaluable data on flooding, water levels, ice damage, infrastructure damage and coastal

erosion. This is unique, irreplaceable information.

When this project was initiated, the entire team of scientists agreed the approach would be

community-driven, rather than academic; communities would have complete ownership of the process

and results and, therefore, have more local capacity to weigh and implement adaptations, because:

the impacts of climate change vary greatly from locality to locality;

the range of potential adaptation strategies and their implementation is constrained or

enhanced by community resources and capacity, and will be coloured by the values of

specific individuals and groups; and

top-down approaches, without buy-in from the community, can often fail.

The Setting for This ResearchBiophysical Context

The coastal zone of southeastern New Brunswick is home to several threatened species of

plants and animals. An important aspect of the ecosystem research is to determine how

sea-level rise and future storm events will affect critical habitat and species-at-risk. The natural

environment of the study area functioned for millions of years before the first intervention by

humans. Nature continues to function as it always has, constantly changing and adapting.

The coastal plain is underlain by sandstone, mud stone and shale bedrock, and the surficial

material consists of glacial deposits. The soils are poorly drained and include clay and

sandstone. Poorly drained soils indicate water will remain in the soil longer than in

well-drained soils such as gravel or sand.

The area is low-lying with very little elevation or topographic relief, and the soils are poorly

drained. There are no steep hills or escarpments to influence hydrology or climate, and the

rivers that drain into Northumberland Strait are meandering and slow moving.

Various ecosystems and landscapes provide habitat and feeding areas for wildlife. The principal

eco-zones are saltwater habitat and coastal habitat. Salt marshes along the coast provide habitat

not only for aquatic life such as fish, lobsters and bivalves, but also for migratory birds.

The southern Gulf of St. Lawrence coast is the longest stretch of barrier coast in Canada,

with barrier beaches and spits extending across shallow drowned estuaries. The beaches in

Kouchibouguac National Park and the Bouctouche Spit (La Dune) are well-known examples.

A destructive wave is one with a high run-up and strong backwash, which erodes a shoreline.

During storms, the power of the backwash is much greater than usual and the rate of erosion is

magnified. Thus, major storms can have catastrophic effects, causing rapid and dramatic changes

to the coastline. This is particularly so in places like New Brunswick, where the beaches are thin

and the buffering volume of the dunes is small.

Kouchibouguac National Park is a mosaic of bogs, salt marshes, tidal rivers, sparkling freshwater

systems, sheltered lagoons, fields and tall forests. The 25 km of shifting sand dunes attract many

species of shorebirds and are witness to colonies of harbour and grey seals.

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All members of the

multi-disciplinary

research team

were involved in a

participatory community

process at key points

in the study.


The presence of sea ice in the Gulf of St. Lawrence inhibits wave development, thereby

reducing erosion during winter storms. As predicted in climate change models, waves are

expected to increase if sea ice in the Gulf decreases. Some models suggest that the Gulf of St.

Lawrence could be free of ice as early as 2045. This would mean that the length of the wave

season would substantially increase and wave impacts would occur year round. The speed of

winter winds may also increase and large storm surges may occur more frequently.

Socio-economic ContextThe area began to change with the arrival of the Mi’kmaq peoples. French settlers arrived in

the 1600s, followed by English settlers in the 1700s. Throughout the 19th and 20th centuries

the economy was based on agriculture, forestry, shipbuilding and harvesting shellfish and

other fish. Land clearing along the coastal plain was extensive and the coastal landscape is

now devoid of trees. Today’s economy is based on services and tourism. Visitors to the beach

spend many thousands of dollars on food and lodging. Near-shore and inshore fisheries also

provide an income for many households.

The predominant settlement pattern occurs along primary and secondary roads, with

clusters of cottages and permanent housing. The desire for waterfront property is pushing

development inland from the coast to linear development along the rivers. (Note: In all of

New Brunswick, over the period from 1990 to 1999, 6,268 new coastal lots were created

– an average of 627 new coastal properties each year.)

The Shediac area is within a half hour drive of Greater Moncton. With the continued

growth of the city-region, more people are choosing to live permanently along the coast and

commute to jobs inland.

In-filling of salt marshes is taking place along the coastline. This increases sedimentation

of watercourses, decreases the ability of marshes to cleanse water, and destroys valuable

wildlife habitat;

Coastal erosion is threatening historic and archeological sites, as well as recently

developed properties.

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Government ContextThe provincial government has been working to strike a balance between growth and

environmental sustainability. In 2000, the Province prepared and released its Coastal Areas Protection Policy, which sets out a coastal management approach based on sensitivity to

impact. The coastal area was divided into three zones (core, buffer, transition), and the

acceptable activities for each zone were identified specifically. Province-wide consultation

followed the release of this policy.

The policy was not adopted through legislation or regulation, but it does set out guidelines for

municipal governments to take into consideration.

The zonal approach enables development officers, municipal officials and landowners to

identify where one zone ends and another begins, and allows for different management of

the three zones to reflect sensitivity, with the least activity in Zone A and progressively more

activity through Zones B and C.

The local governance structure in New Brunswick provides several categories of local

government with varying powers and duties. Municipalities have the most powers and

effective tools to regulate land use. Some of the more rural parts of the province have very

limited regulatory powers. Consequently, the application of the Coastal Areas Protection Policy has been variable.

The Community Planning Act makes provision for municipalities and rural communities

to enact a flood risk area bylaw, with the Province’s approval. Once an area is designated,

a bylaw may set out engineering standards, designs and techniques to be followed in all

development within the flood risk area. It may prohibit all development except that which is

in accordance with the prescribed standards, designs and techniques.

Research MethodsIn Atlantic Canada, the sea level has been rising relative to the land for thousands of years; a

result of global mean sea-level rise and post-glacial vertical movement of the land. This relative

rise has been slow. Climate warming, through ocean thermal expansion and melting of ice on

the continents, threatens to raise the mean sea level on a global scale by several decimetres over

the coming century. This is likely to accelerate historical rates of relative sea-level rise in Atlantic

Canada. Storm effects, in conjunction with the mean sea level, may have far reaching impacts on

infrastructure, property and wildlife habitat.

The overall research program was conducted through nine research components. A tenth

component was a detailed integration of the findings of these diverse research studies. A summary

of each component follows.

Sea-level Rise and Land Subsidence

To predict future sea-level rise, an accurate picture is needed of how the sea level has changed in

the past. This research component, led by Dr. Don Forbes of the Geological Survey of Canada,

examined data from tide gauges and geodetic systems, among other sources. The researchers

also looked at geological and palaeoecological evidence for past sea-level changes on the floor

of Northumberland Strait and in marsh deposits along the coast. By measuring and validating

past trends in sea-level rise and vertical movement in the Earth’s crust, the team made informed

predictions of the net sea-level rise, which became a baseline for many other components of the

overall program.

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The provincial

government has a policy

of coastal protection,

but its application has

been variable. Local

governments in rural

areas have limited

planning powers.


Physical Effect on Coastal Lands

This component involved examination of the physical effects of sea-level rise and climate change

on the stability of coastal lands. Researchers used a combination of field surveys, maps, aerial

photos, airborne video interpretation, airborne photogrammetry, LIDAR Digital Elevation Map

interpretation, and shallow marine surveys to define the sub-marine components of the coastal

system. Through this work, researchers were able to measure the past rates of coastline and

shoreline changes, and estimate future rates of erosion with an increased sea-level rise. They also

identified the cause of local erosion, noting areas of greatest vulnerability. Dominique Bérubé of

the New Brunswick Department of Natural Resources led this work.

Storm-surge and Meteorological Modelling

This component predicted trends in water levels during the next century. The project team

considered factors such as tides, waves, the presence of ice, weather and storm surges — all of

which affect sea level and the likelihood it will cause flooding or other damage. The researchers

used historical climate data and real-time observations to calibrate their model, making

predictions about the likelihood of flooding under various climate change scenarios. Dr. Hal

Ritchie of the Meteorological Service of Canada led this work.

Storm-surge, Wind, Wave and Sea Ice Climatologies

This component, led by George Parkes of the Meteorological Service of Canada, examined tide

gauge records, meteorological data, wave records and remotely sensed sea ice data to build a

picture of climate variability and extreme events, particularly storms and floods, over the past 30

to 60 years. It examined the nature of storms giving rise to serious impacts on the New Brunswick

coast and considered the effects of sea ice on storm-surge heights and impacts.

Elevation Surveys and Flood-risk Mapping

This component, led by Dr. Tim Webster of the Centre of Geographic Sciences, Nova Scotia

Community College, involved precise surveying and the production of 3D digital elevation

models and maps. Storm surges are typically 0.6 to 2 m in height for this region; therefore

technologies with vertical precision significantly finer than these values must be employed to

generate flood-risk maps of sufficient resolution. Traditional ground-based surveying, global

positioning systems (GPS), and newer LIDAR technology were used. LIDAR mapping involves an

aircraft scanning the ground beneath its flight path with laser pulses and measuring the return time

of each pulse to determine the precise position and elevation of the point where it was reflected..

Data are then used in computer simulations to see which areas would be flooded when sea levels

reach various heights.

Computer simulations

were used to determine

which areas would

flood for events of

varying return period,

from 2 to 100 years,

with and without

sea-level rise.

Animation sequences

were constructed for

some areas.


Flood depth maps were constructed in order to better estimate the potential economic and

ecosystem impacts of coastal flooding events. The flood depth maps of the January 2000 flood

were used for validating the results of the flood modelling. Additional flood risk maps were

generated for 10 cm increments in water level to allow for a more precise estimate of the areas

potentially affected by future sea-level rise and storm-surge events. The 10 cm increment flood

extents are available as vector polygons that denote the area of flood inundation.

To visualize flooding as a result of a storm-surge event superimposed on sea-level rise, animation

sequences were constructed for some areas. These simulate a perspective view of the landscape.

The water level associated with a storm-surge or sea-level rise is then increased and flows over the

landscape. The water levels for the flood risk animation sequences increase by 10 cm increments

to levels of historical flooding and potential future flooding with sea-level rise. This proved to be a

very effective way to present the flood-risk modelling results to local government officials and the

general public.

Coastal Erosion

This component involved examination of the physical effects of sea-level rise and climate change on

the stability of coastal lands. Researchers used a combination of field surveys, maps, aerial photos,

airborne video interpretation, airborne photogrammetry, LIDAR Digital Elevation Models and

shallow marine surveys to build an understanding of the whole coastal system. Digital analysis of air

photographs going back to 1944 provided data on erosion rates over 60 years. Through this work,

researchers were able to measure the past rates of coastline and shoreline changes, and estimate

future rates of erosion with an increased sea-level rise. They also identified the key processes driving

erosion, noting areas of greatest vulnerability. Dominique Bérubé of the New Brunswick Department

of Natural Resources led this work.

Ecosystem Impacts

This project component examined the amount and distribution of wildlife habitat, and estimated

how the habitat and species-at-risk will respond to sea-level rise and human impacts from such

activities as infilling and the construction of seawalls or causeways. Impacts of sea-level rise,

drainage and other human activities on salt marsh habitat were examined using historical air

photographs. It was shown that losses of salt marsh area ranged from 5% to 35% between 1944

and 2001 at various places along the coast. Beach and dune habitat also declined between 8%

and 40% over the past 60 years. Potential impacts of sea-level rise on endangered species such

as the Piping Plover, on colonial nesting birds such as gulls and terns, and on rare plants were all

considered. As a result, researchers will be able to develop management strategies that will help

to minimize negative impacts on coastal ecosystems at future sea levels. Dr. Alan Hanson of the

Canadian Wildlife Service managed this research.

Economic and Community Impacts

This component, led by Lisa DeBaie of Environment Canada, considered how economies and

communities will be affected by a changing environment. The study examined potential impacts

on eco-tourism, cultural tourism, potential property damage costs and societal costs associated

with the loss of coastal wetland habitat. This work provided economic estimates of flooding and

erosion impacts, and their implications for future development with rising sea levels and climate

change. The results can be used to raise awareness of “pocketbook” impacts on local communities

and provide a basis for moving toward adaptive practices.

Rising sea levels will

impact several aspects of

the region’s economy,

including commercial

fishing and eco-tourism.


AdaptationThe process of adjusting to

a set of circumstances that

have changed the natural or

human-made environment. It

includes the development of

strategies to either counteract

a threat to the existing

environment or to make

use of a positive change.

Adaptation, as a process, is

also intricately connected to

impact analysis, which is a

prerequisite.

Integration

This part of the project, led by Dr. Liette Vasseur of Laurentian University, integrated information

from other project components, making the knowledge generated in the study easier to use.

Through consultations with communities and planning commissions, the project team developed

a system to provide information and serve as a tool for community decision-making.

Adaptation Strategies and Adaptive Capacity

These components, led by Dr. Sue Nichols of the University of New Brunswick and Dr. Liette

Vasseur of Laurentian University, focussed on how people can adapt to the various physical and

socio-economic impacts of climate change. It examined how risk management techniques can be

used to assess the cost and benefit of various adaptation options, considering these as part of short-,

medium-, and long-term strategies. The team also compiled a database of strategies already being

tested nationally and internationally. This work will provide tools that help residents, governments

and industry to make informed decisions on how they plan to adapt to the effects of climate change.

From a community planner’s perspective this work may be of considerable interest.

The initial research was focussed on getting community input on:

how people had adapted in the past to sea-level rise and storm surges;

what their experiences have been during the recent major storms;

what future threats did they perceive;

what measures they have taken (if any); and

what best practices could be learned from the community efforts.

Information on the communities’ adaptation status was mostly gathered through 27 interviews and

three focus group discussions conducted in different communities from 2003 to 2005. Participants

were also taken to sites with researchers to discuss impacts and adaptation methods. Seven public

information sessions were held in different communities to share early research results and build

the link with communities, followed by a two-day workshop. Over this period, the researchers

observed an increased sense of emergency and a desire to act towards adaptation. They also

found that individual property owners had been investing in shoreline protection or making

other accommodations. Some groups and government agencies have used a shoreline restoration

approach to adaptation.

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Municipal Case Studies – Climate Change/New Brunswick�0

Overall, researchers found:

a lack of information on possible techniques and practices;

insufficient and unequal resources to address the coastal issues;

a lack of local governance and effective tools to manage coastal development; and

a regulatory process that is complex, ineffective and applied inequitably.

The analytical part of this component involved creating a decision-making framework to help

stakeholders adapt to sea-level rise and climate change. The framework, which includes a

process for choosing appropriate adaptation strategies for specific locations, was formed through

discussions with communities, examination of key referenced works and analysis of accounts of

personal experience. The framework has three objectives:

to provide those involved in developing adaptation strategies with a guide that emphasizes

the importance of community involvement and empowerment;

to create an approach that would be transferable while making the process applicable to the

local constraints and opportunities of unique communities;

to provide communities with a decision-making tool that helps a diverse group of people to

understand the range of adaptation options available to them, with the aim of communally

defining options that “protect and enhance the community’s well-being”.

This adaptation framework is composed of two parts: (a) the framework components and (b) the

processes. This framework can be used to examine the rationale of previous adaptation strategies

or to create new ones. Applied either as an analytical instrument or used as a community decision-

making tool, the framework emphasizes the importance of an empowered community approach.

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Figure 1 Adaptation: Strategy for Community Decision-Making (after ICCC, [Sutherland 4-6, trad adation 2-4, Mendis et al, 2003 p.45] [2005, (after, [1998, p.79), Lim, B.,E. Spanger-Siegfried, ed.[2005, p. ]).

THE SCENE CREATE IDEA

ENG

AG

E STAK

EHO

LDER

S

DATA COLLECTION AND RESEARCH

ANALYZE

FORM STRATEGY

THE SPECIFIC RESPONSE

THE CONCEPTUAL LENSData (Characteristics):Economic and Physical

Socio-culturalKnowledge-based

Information:Adaptive Capacity

VulnerabilityResilience

THE PARTS OF THE ACTIONLocation

StakeholdersForm

FunctionTimeframe

Performance & EvaluationIMPLEMENT PLAN

EVALUATE

Adaptation: Strategy for Community Decision-Making

A. Framework Components B. Process*

The Process has three Best Practices: 1) use of a champion, 2) effective management, and 3) alternative conflict management techniques.

Municipal Case Studies – Climate Change/New Brunswick ��

Relevance for Other CommunitiesThis research is relevant to all low-lying communities along Canada’s coastlines, especially for

rural municipalities, seasonal settlements and communities that are highly dependent on coastal

tourism. As sea level rises and storms intensify with climate change, private property, public

infrastructure, local economies and even lives will be more at risk. Productive and ecologically

sensitive habitats may be compromised or reduced.

This multi-faceted research program has produced a wealth of scientific and technical information

that provides an excellent framework for similar studies in other communities. Additionally, the

commitment of the entire team to a community-driven approach provides a sound model for other

The ability of Canadian communities to respond effectively to climate change depends

on a range of factors, including scientific information, access to financial resources,

and the state of existing infrastructure, education, technology, and management

capabilities. Some communities with limited capacity to respond may face more risks

in the future. The New Brunswick case study reveals several challenges for small

towns and rural communities, including lack of information about adaptive measures,

insufficient planning tools to protect the coastline and limited resources to minimize

future risks to public and private property.

Historically, planners have been facilitators of change, helping to make progressive

choices as societal values, needs, resources and capacities change. Recognizing

change and helping others adapt to change are likely to be planners’ most enduring

roles in relation to climate change. In coastal communities, planners will probably

continue to do this through stakeholder consultation processes as part of

community-wide and area-specific plans. Through these planning processes, planners

will help residents, businesses, investors, and other stakeholders learn more about

risks and the trade-offs associated with them. In part, because of their communication

and organizational skills, Canadian planners are more and more frequently on the

front lines in emergency preparedness planning.

In larger municipalities with more resources, some planners may focus their work

on environmental issues, including climate change. In the largest municipalities and

metropolitan agencies, planning staff may be dedicated to the issues directly associated

with climate change.

In addition to their roles as communicators and facilitators of consultation processes,

planners have access to policy and, in some provinces, the regulatory measures that, if

supported by decision-makers, will help avoid further risks associated with

sea-level rise and storm surges. British Columbia’s “development permitting process”

provides local governments with the tools to fully review development applications in

environmentally sensitive areas, provided that local government chooses to identify

these in its community (policy) plan.

In some provinces, planners may also have an opportunity to have input into incentive

programs that encourage responsible land use and building in flood-prone areas.

Additionally, in the future, the insurance industry may call on planners to help design

guidelines that advise policyholders how to minimize risks associated with flooding

and extreme climate events.

Role of C

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unity Planners

Municipal Case Studies – Climate Change/New Brunswick��

science-based climate impact studies. Through early and ongoing involvement in the three-year

research program, community stakeholders began to own the results, recognize their significance,

and work together to identify adaptive approaches.

The research also revealed the lack of effective planning tools in the area’s communities.

Although the provincial government has provided educational materials and a policy framework

for coastal protection, rural communities find that they have no direct regulatory authority to

implement the guidelines. Planners’ ability to influence development activity within the coastal

zones is primarily through advising applicants of the risks. Local planning authorities welcomed

the findings of this research, as it provides them with more knowledge of likely impacts. The

visual tools provided through the research program — LIDAR maps and video simulations of

flooding at various risk levels — are also helpful materials for use in public meetings and in

discussions with development applicants.

Sources, Contacts and Additional ResourcesThe Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation Program, Earth Sciences Sector, Natural Resources Canada. The objectives of the program are: to improve knowledge of Canada’s

vulnerability to climate change; to better assess the risks and benefits posed by a changing

climate; and to build the foundation on which appropriate decisions on adaptation can be

made. The program supports research to fill critical gaps that limit knowledge of vulnerability;

to undertake and support assessment of impacts and adaptation; to enhance collaboration

between stakeholders and researchers; and to facilitate policy development.

http://adaptation.nrcan.gc.ca/index_e.php

The Partners for Climate Protection (PCP) program is a network of more than 132 Canadian

municipal governments that have committed to reducing greenhouse gases and acting on

climate change. PCP is the Canadian component of the Cities for Climate Protection (CCP)

network of the International Council for Local Environmental Initiatives. The network

comprises more that 600 communities worldwide making similar efforts. www.sustainablecommunities.ca

The Coastal Education and Research Foundation (CERF) is a non-profit corporation dedicated

to the advancement of the coastal sciences. The foundation is devoted to the multi-

disciplinary study of the complex problems of the coastal zone. www.cerf-jcr.org

Fisheries and Oceans Canada is the lead federal government department responsible for

developing and implementing policies and programs in support of Canada’s economic,

ecological, and scientific interests in oceans and inland waters. The Habitat Management

Division has published guidelines for protecting fish populations and their habitats from the

damaging effects of land development activities. www.dfo-mpo.gc.ca/us-nous_e.htm

The New Brunswick Climate Change Hub facilitates the exchange of ideas, information, and

resources between government, private sector, and community-based organizations engaged

in climate change. www.nbhub.org/main-e.php

The Irving Eco-Centre: La Dune de Bouctouche was developed by J. D. Irving Ltd. to protect

and restore one of the last great dunes on the northeastern coast of North America. The fine

sand dune, extending 12 km across the mouth of Bouctouche Bay, was created since the last

ice age by the constant movement of sand due to the wind, tides, and ocean currents. The

dune, estimated to be 2,000 years old, changes shape with every major storm. It provides

habitat for a wide variety of aquatic plants and animals, and shorebirds and waterfowl, making

this a major ecological site. The Irving Eco-Centre contributes scientific knowledge of dune

ecosystems along the north Atlantic coast. www.ifdn.com/Dune/index.html

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Kouchibouguac National Park is a Canadian Heritage protected area. One of two wilderness

Canadian national parks in New Brunswick, Kouchibouguac is a mosaic of bogs, salt marshes,

tidal rivers, freshwater systems, lagoons, abandoned fields and tall forests, features that

characterize the Maritime Plain Natural Region. The 25 km of shifting sand dunes are home to

the endangered Piping Plover. www.pc.gc.ca/pn-np/nb/kouchibouguac/index_e.asp

The Canadian Meteorological and Oceanographic Society (CMOS) is the national

non-governmental organization serving the interests of meteorologists, climatologists,

oceanographers, limnologists, hydrologists and cryospheric scientists. CMOS publishes an

internationally recognized scientific journal, and a bulletin. It also offers other publications

such as books, annual reports and abstracts of presentations at annual congresses.

www.cmos.ca/

Glossary of Case Study TermsSea-level Rise. An increase in the mean level of the ocean. Eustatic sea-level rise is a change in

global average sea level brought about by an alteration to the volume of the world ocean. Relative

sea-level rise occurs where there is a net increase in the level of the ocean relative to local land

movements. Climate modellers largely concentrate on estimating eustatic sea-level change. Impact

researchers focus on relative sea-level change.

Storm-surge. This refers to a temporary increase, at a particular locality, in the height of the sea

due to severe weather conditions (low atmospheric pressure and/or strong winds). The storm-surge

is defined as being the excess above the level expected from the tidal variation alone at that time

and place.

Glossary of Climate Change TermsThe Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assesses scientific, technical and socio-

economic information relevant for the understanding of climate change, its potential impacts and

options for adaptation and mitigation. IPCC maintains a glossary of terms used in the science and

study of climate change. The following terms selected from that glossary are some that community

planners and municipal engineers will use increasingly.

Adaptation Adjustment. Adaptation to climate change refers to adjustment in natural or human

systems in response to actual or expected climatic stimuli or their effects, which moderates

harm or exploits beneficial opportunities. Various types of adaptation can be distinguished,

including anticipatory and reactive adaptation, private and public adaptation, and autonomous

and planned adaptation.

Adaptation Assessment. The practice of identifying options to adapt to climate change and evaluating

them in terms of criteria such as availability, benefits, costs, effectiveness, efficiency, and feasibility.

Adaptation Benefits. The avoided damage costs, or the accrued benefits, following the adoption

and implementation of adaptation measures.

Adaptation Costs. Costs of planning, preparing for, facilitating, and implementing adaptation

measures, including transition costs.

Adaptive Capacity. The ability of a system to adjust to climate change (including climate

variability and extremes) to moderate potential damages, to take advantage of opportunities, or to

cope with the consequences.

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http://www.cmos.ca/


Aquifer. A stratum of permeable rock that bears water. An unconfined aquifer is recharged directly

by local rainfall, rivers, and lakes, and the rate of recharge will be influenced by the permeability

of the overlying rocks and soils. A confined aquifer is characterized by an overlying bed that is

impermeable and the local rainfall does not influence the aquifer.

Capacity Building. In the context of climate change, capacity building is a process of developing

the technical skills and institutional capability in developing countries and economies in transition

to enable them to participate in all aspects of adaptation to, mitigation of, and research on climate

change, and the implementation of the Kyoto Mechanisms, etc.

Climate. Climate, in a narrow sense, is usually defined as the “average weather” or, more

rigorously, as the statistical description in terms of the mean and variability of relevant quantities

over a period of time ranging from months to thousands or millions of years. The classical period

is 30 years, as defined by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO). These relevant

quantities are most often surface variables such as temperature, precipitation, and wind. Climate,

in a wider sense, is the state, including a statistical description, of the climate system.

Climate Change. Climate change refers to a statistically significant variation in either the mean

state of the climate or in its variability, persisting for an extended period (typically decades or

longer). Climate change may be due to natural internal processes or external forcings, or to

persistent anthropogenic changes in the composition of the atmosphere or in land use.

Demand-side Management. Policies and programs designed for a specific purpose to influence

consumer demand for goods and/or services. In the energy sector, for instance, it refers to policies

and programs designed to reduce consumer demand for electricity and other energy sources. It

helps to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.

Ecosystem. A system of interacting living organisms together with their physical environment. The

boundaries of what could be called an ecosystem are somewhat arbitrary, depending on the focus

of interest or study. Thus, the extent of an ecosystem may range from very small spatial scales to,

ultimately, the entire Earth.

Extreme Weather Event. An extreme weather event is an event that is rare within its statistical

reference distribution at a particular place. Definitions of “rare” vary, but an extreme weather

event would normally be as rare as or rarer than the 10th or 90th percentile. By definition, the

characteristics of what is called extreme weather may vary from place to place. An extreme

climate event is an average of a number of weather events over a certain period of time, an

average which is itself extreme (e.g., rainfall over a season).

Habitat. The particular environment or place where an organism or species tend to live; a more

locally circumscribed portion of the total environment.

(Climate) Impact Assessment. The practice of identifying and evaluating the detrimental and beneficial

consequences of climate change on natural and human systems.

(Climate) Impacts. Consequences of climate change on natural and human systems. Depending on

the consideration of adaptation, one can distinguish between potential impacts and residual impacts.

Infrastructure. The basic equipment, utilities, productive enterprises, installations, institutions,

and services essential for the development, operation, and growth of an organization, city, or

nation. For example: roads; schools; electric, gas, water utilities; transportation, communication

and legal systems would be all considered as infrastructure.


Potential Impacts. All impacts that may occur given a projected change in climate, without

considering adaptation.

Residual Impacts. The impacts of climate change that would occur after adaptation.

(Climate) Vulnerability. The degree to which a system is susceptible to, or unable to cope with,

adverse effects of climate change, including climate variability and extremes Vulnerability is a

function of the character, magnitude, and rate of climate variation to which a system is exposed,

its sensitivity, and its adaptive capacity.


Downloadable PDF version and more information

available at www.cip-icu.ca.

Prepared for:

Prepared by:

Case Study Leader:

Planners and distributed through

CitySpaces Consulting Ltd. | 2007

Environment Canada

Municipal Case Studies: CLIMATE CHANGE AND THE PLANNING ... · Basements were flooded, parts of roads were washed away and telephone poles were toppled. The peak water level in this

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