Mudanças Climáticas e a Floresta Amazônica - Fapesp · Mudanças Climáticas e a Floresta Amazônica ... northern tropical Atlantic. ... duração –Projetos LBA/ESECAFLOR e LBA/SECA

Mudanças Climáticas e

a Floresta AmazônicaClimate Change and the Amazon Forest

Philip M. Fearnside

Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas da Amazônia – INPA

http://philip.inpa.gov.br

International Conference Getting Post 2010 Biodiversity Targets Right. Projeto

Biota, 11 a 15 de dezembro, Bragança Paulista-SP.. 13 de dez de 2010

Nat Geogr. map

Changes in vegetation biomassbetween the present day and the 2080s

–8 –5 –3 –1 1 3 5 8

kgC/m2

–8 –5 –3 –1 1 3 5 8

kgC/m2

[Hadley Centre, 2000]

Cândido et al., 2007

IPCC AR4 WG2 2007. Chapter 3

IPCC 2007 AR-4, WG-I, p. 779

Cox et al. 2004

Photo by R.I. Barbosa

Cox et al. 2004

Stainforth,2005

ADAPTED FROM HEGERL ET AL., NATURE (2006)

Betts et al. 2004 Theoretical and Applied Climatology

Huntingford et al. 2004 Theoretical and Applied Climatology

500

Kilometersi

Legend:

Number of dry months

Non TF areas

0 - 1

1 - 2

2 - 3

3 - 4

4 - 5

5 +

500

Kilometersi

Length of dry season

Derived from the New et al 2001 dataset

Legend:

Multivariate ENSO index

-0.4 - -0.3

-0.3 - -0.2

-0.2 - -0.1

-0.1 - 0

Non TF areas

0 - 0.2

550

Kilometersi500

Kilometersi

Impact of El Nino

Malhi and Wright 2004 Spatial patterns and recent trends in the climate of tropical forest

regions. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society

Seca de 2005

Photos Greenpeace

Published by AAAS

A. T. Evan et al., Science 324, 778 -781 (2009)

Fig. 4 Map of linear trends in observed SST (A) and the residual SST (B)

Published by AAAS

A. T. Evan et al., Science 324, 778 -781 (2009)

Fig. 2 Time series of mixed layer response to dust and stratospheric aerosol forcing (A) and observed SST anomalies (B)

This is especially critical because studies

have estimated a reduction in Atlantic dust

cover of 40 to 60% under a doubled carbon

dioxide climate (33), which, on the basis of

model runs with an equivalent reduction of

the mean dust forcing, could result in an

additional 0.3° to 0.4°C warming of the

northern tropical Atlantic. Evan et al. 2009, pp. 780-781

These calculations suggest that 69% of the

recent upward trend in northern tropical

Atlantic SST is due to changes in aerosols.

33=Mahowald, N. M., and C. Luo (2003), A less dusty future?, Geophys. Res. Lett., 30(17), 1903

10km

Fotos: Richard Bierregaard

Damage and mortality of trees (%/yr)

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

4

< 300 m > 300 m

< 0.0013.1

1.6

Tax

a d

e d

an

os (

%/a

no

)

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

4

4.5

100 1000

Y = 3.64 - 0.75 log X

R=0.51, P=0.0002

Mo

rtality (

%/y

ear)

Distance to edge (m)

Nascimento and Laurance, 2004 Ecol. Appl.;

Painéis Suportes

CalhasDrenos

Redução de

50-60% da

precipitação

Experimentos de exclusão de chuvas – simulando el niños de longa

duração – Projetos LBA/ESECAFLOR e LBA/SECA FLORESTA

Foley et al. 2007 Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment

IPCC, 2007 AR4 WG1 Ch. 10 p. 775

Cox et al. 2004 Theoretical and Applied Climatology

Miles et al., 2004. Global Ecology and Biogeography, 13: 553–565.

IPCC, 2007 (AR-4 WG1 SPM)

http://philip.inpa.gov.br