For more information on MubasherTrade, please visit our website at www.MubasherTrade.com or contact us at [email protected]. Please read the important disclosure and disclaimer at the end of this document. Page 1 The Monthly Chartbook Multi-Asset Classes | Global Wednesday, 1 June 2016 May 2016: Markets hitting the brakes THE BIG PICTURE • Macroeconomic Pulse • Mixed performance for global asset classes • Variation in commodities performance • Except for three, all MENA markets witnessed losses EGYPT • Budget deficit recorded 7.9% of GDP in Jul-Feb FY2015/16 • Majority of sectors performed badly in May QATAR • M2 growth rate declined in April 2016 • Equities continuing their April losing streak SAUDI ARABIA • Non-oil exports fell 11.2% YoY in February • Almost all sectors witnessed losses UAE • M3 growth rate accelerated to 2.1% YoY in March • All ADX market sectors fell in May, except for just one sector... • … while just three sectors recorded gains in DFM market Ramy Oraby Economist Mubasher International [email protected]Ayman Elshahed Analyst Mubasher International [email protected]
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For more information on MubasherTrade, please visit our website at www.MubasherTrade.com or contact us at [email protected]. Please read the important disclosure and disclaimer at the end of this document.
Page 1
The Monthly ChartbookMulti-Asset Classes | Global
Wednesday, 1 June 2016
May 2016: Markets hitting the brakes
THE BIG PICTURE
• Macroeconomic Pulse
• Mixed performance for global asset classes
• Variation in commodities performance
• Except for three, all MENA markets witnessed losses
EGYPT
• Budget deficit recorded 7.9% of GDP in Jul-Feb FY2015/16
• Majority of sectors performed badly in May
QATAR
• M2 growth rate declined in April 2016
• Equities continuing their April losing streak
SAUDI ARABIA
• Non-oil exports fell 11.2% YoY in February
• Almost all sectors witnessed losses
UAE
• M3 growth rate accelerated to 2.1% YoY in March
• All ADX market sectors fell in May, except for just one sector...
• … while just three sectors recorded gains in DFM market
For more information on MubasherTrade, please visit our website at www.MubasherTrade.com or contact us at [email protected]. Please read the important disclosure and disclaimer at the end of this document.
Page 2
The Monthly Chartbook | Multi-Asset Classes | Global
Wednesday, 1 June 2016
THE BIG PICTURE: MACROECONOMIC PULSE
Egypt's annual inflation accelerated to 10.3% YoY as inflationary pressurescontinued to build. Meanwhile, inflation continued to stabilize in both KSAand Qatar at 4.2% YoY and 3.4% YoY, respectively. An increase in food andeducation prices pushed annual inflation higher to 1.63% in the UAE.
Egypt’s PMI rose to 46.9 in April staying in ‘contraction territory’ for theseventh consecutive month. In KSA, PMI declined marginally from 54.5 inMarch to 54.2 in April. Meanwhile, the UAE’s PMI recorded the weakest pacesince January to record 52.8 in April.
Egypt's reserves rose 2.7% MoM to USD17.01bn due to an increase in thevalue of foreign currencies. The CBE is expected to receive USD2bn depositfrom the UAE and a USD2.5bn grant from KSA. Moreover, KSA net foreignreserves decreased 15.7% YoY to USD572.2bn as investments in foreignsecurities declined 26% YoY. The UAE’s foreign assets went up 5.7% MoM.Qatar’s foreign reserve went down 0.9% MoM to USD35.7bn in April.
Pressure on both EGP and SAR resumed despite of the reports of aids from the UAE and KSA and recent oil prices rebound. A working paper released by SAMA regarding the kingdom’s exchange rate policy was said to initiate speculative attacks on the peg. We do believe GCC countries will maintain the USD peg. In Egypt, the current exchange rate would come under more pressure as pro-rate hike signs from the Fed strengthen the greenback.
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Page 3
The Monthly Chartbook | Multi-Asset Classes | Global
Wednesday, 1 June 2016
THE BIG PICTURE: ASSET CLASSES
Global asset classes witnessed a mixed performance in May 2016; six of them ended the month with losses, with MSCI Real Estate EM (Emerging Markets) theworst performer (-6.2%), while four asset classes gained slightly, led by S&P Global 100 as the best performer (+1.0%), mostly towards the end of the month.
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Page 4
The Monthly Chartbook | Multi-Asset Classes | Global
Wednesday, 1 June 2016
THE BIG PICTURE: COMMODITIES
Commodities performance varied in May 2016, with Natural Gas the biggest gainer (+9.6%), while Silver was the biggest loser (-10.4%).
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Page 5
The Monthly Chartbook | Multi-Asset Classes | Global
Wednesday, 1 June 2016
THE BIG PICTURE: MENA EQUITIES
Except for Jordan, Lebanon, and Bahrain all of which climbed by a few percentage points (+1.0%, +0.1%, and +0.1%, respectively), all MENA equities marketsfell in May 2016. The worst performers were UAE (ADX), Qatar and Saudi Arabia, which declined by 6.5%, 6.4% and 5.2%, respectively — mostly towards end ofmonth.
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Page 6
The Monthly Chartbook | Multi-Asset Classes | Global
Wednesday, 1 June 2016
Tax revenues went up from 6.2% to 7.6% of GDP as the Egyptian government targets tax base expansion. Meanwhile, compensation of employees went down to4.8% of the GDP in Jul-Feb FY2015/16 compared with 5.2% of the GDP a year earlier. In absolute terms. compensation of employees went up from EGP125.2bn inJul-Feb FY2014/15 to EGP134.9bn in Jul-Feb FY2015/16. However, the rate of wages growth was the lowest “in the last three fiscal years” backed by the reformswhich included the civil service bill. On the other hand, interest payments accelerated, reflecting more dependence on debt instruments. We note that interestpayments represent around 40% of total expenditures in July-Feb FY2015/16, compared with 27.5% a year earlier.
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Page 7
The Monthly Chartbook | Multi-Asset Classes | Global
Wednesday, 1 June 2016
Egypt
Health Care & Pharmaceuticals
Construction & Materials
Telecommunications
Food & Beverages
Personal & Household Produsts
Financial Services
Industrial Goods & Services
EGX 30
Banks
Real Estate
Chemicals
Basic Resources
Travel & Leisure
May 2016
-11.2%
-11.0%
-9.3%
-7.1%
-4.8%
-3.7%
-3.7%
-1.9%
-1.6%
-0.2%
4.0%
4.5%
13.3%
Travel & Leisure
Basic Resources
Chemicals
Real Estate
Banks
EGX 30
Industrial Goods & Services
Financial Services
Personal & Household Produsts
Food & Beverages
Telecommunications
Construction & Materials
Health Care & Pharmaceuticals
Egypt sectors May 2016 Performance
EGYPT: EQUITIES
A lot of sectors in Egypt recorded losses in May. The worst performers were Travel & Leisure and Basic Resources (-11.2% and -11.0%, respectively), unlike HealthCare & Pharmaceuticals which gained 13.3%.
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Page 8
The Monthly Chartbook | Multi-Asset Classes | Global
Wednesday, 1 June 2016
EGYPT: EQUITIES (Cont.’d)
Egyptian equities witnessed losses in May. 65% of the stocks were losers, 27% were gainers and 8% unchanged. The top gainer was Ajwa for Food industries (+28.1%), while the toploser was Beltone Financial Holding (-37.9%).
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Page 9
The Monthly Chartbook | Multi-Asset Classes | Global
Wednesday, 1 June 2016
QATAR: MACRO
Qatar's M2 money supply growth rate remained negative on an annual basis for the third consecutive month as low oil and gas prices pressured liquidity in thebanking system. Moreover, the negative growth rate has accelerated from -0.4% YoY in March to -1.6% YoY in April. Such deterioration was backed by a 17.6% YoYdecline in the FCY deposits (versus -6% YoY in March). On the other hand, both demand and time deposits went up 11% YoY and 2.3% YoY, respectively. We notethat government deposits at commercial banks rose 14.4% YoY to record QAR64.2bn in April 2016.
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Page 10
The Monthly Chartbook | Multi-Asset Classes | Global
Wednesday, 1 June 2016
QATAR: EQUITIES
All Qatari sectors witnessed negative performance in May, continuing their April pattern. The worst performing sector was Telecom (-10.4%).
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Page 11
The Monthly Chartbook | Multi-Asset Classes | Global
Wednesday, 1 June 2016
QATAR: EQUITIES (Cont.’d)
The red color and the negative numbers dominated the Qatari market for the second month in a row. 82% of stocks witnessed losses, while just eight Qatari stocksrecorded gains. Medicare Group and Gulf International Services were the best performers (+10.0% and +8.5%, respectively). Meanwhile, Qatar First Bank andOoredoo were the worst performers down by 13.5% 10.6%, respectively.
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Page 12
The Monthly Chartbook | Multi-Asset Classes | Global
Wednesday, 1 June 2016
SAUDI ARABIA: MACRO
The kingdom’s non-oil exports fell 11.2% YoY from SAR14.76bn in February 2015 to SAR13.11bn in February 2016. Plastic and rubber products, chemical productsand transport equipment (c.69% of total non-oil exports) decreased by 18.2%, 9.2% and 9.7% YoY, respectively in February. On the other hand, imports continuedto decline from SAR52.46bn in February 2015 to SAR40.69bn as machinery and electronics (c.30% of total imports) went down 24% YoY. Apart from the impact ofoil prices, we note that downside economic risks to the kingdom‘s major trading partners (i.e. China and the UAE) weigh on non-oil exports. That said, SaudiArabia’s current account deficit is expected to widen to 10.2% of GDP in 2016, according to the IMF.
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Page 13
The Monthly Chartbook | Multi-Asset Classes | Global
Wednesday, 1 June 2016
SAUDI ARABIA: EQUITIES
In Saudi Arabia, almost all sectors fell in May; just two sectors recorded gains, namely Media (+2.0%) and Energy & Utilities (+1.0%).
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Page 14
The Monthly Chartbook | Multi-Asset Classes | Global
Wednesday, 1 June 2016
SAUDI ARABIA: EQUITIES (Cont.’d)
Around 80% of Saudi equities recorded losses in May, where Salama Operative Insurance (-25.4%) shifted from the top gainer position in April to the top loser position. Meanwhile,the top gainer was Fawaz Abdulaziz Al Hokair (+20.6%).
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Page 15
The Monthly Chartbook | Multi-Asset Classes | Global
Wednesday, 1 June 2016
UAE: MACRO
The broad money supply aggregate (M3) growth rate rose to 2.21% YoY on a yearly basis in April, reflecting tightened conditions in the UAE. A sharp decline in thegovernment deposits by 11.23% YoY was offset by 7.3% and 2.54% YoY increases in both M1 and Quasi-Monetary Deposits, respectively. Meanwhile, M3 monthlygrowth rate stalled in April, recording +0.01%. Recently, Abu Dhabi was reported to raise USD5bn in bonds from international markets. We note that tappinginternational debt markets for diversifying finance sources would help ease the pressure on domestic liquidity.
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Page 16
The Monthly Chartbook | Multi-Asset Classes | Global
Wednesday, 1 June 2016
UAE-ADX
Insurance
Consumer Staples
Industrial
Real Estate
Financial Services & Investment
Services
Telecommunication
ADX General Index
Energy
Banks
May 2016
-7.7%
-6.9%
-6.5%
-6.3%
-4.3%
-3.7%
-3.5%
-3.1%
-2.3%
1.4%
Banks
Energy
ADX General Index
Telecommunication
Services
Financial Services & Investment
Real Estate
Industrial
Consumer Staples
Insurance
UAE-ADX sectors May 2016 Performance
UAE: EQUITIES
In UAE-ADX, except for Insurance (+1.4%), all sectors fell in May, reversing their pattern in April. The worst performing sectors were Banks (-7.7%) and Energy (-6.9%).
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Page 17
The Monthly Chartbook | Multi-Asset Classes | Global
Wednesday, 1 June 2016
UAE: EQUITIES (Cont.’d)
Almost of UAE-DFM's sectors recorded losses in May, except for Consumer Staples (+11.2%), Transportation (+5.2%) and Industrials (+1.8%).
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Page 18
The Monthly Chartbook | Multi-Asset Classes | Global
Wednesday, 1 June 2016
UAE: EQUITIES (Cont’d)
Around 64% of UAE equities fell in May. On one hand, BLME Holdings (+40.0%) and International Fish Farming (+29.2%) were the best performers. On the other hand, NationalMarine Dredging (-24.2%) and Dubai Financial Market (-19.6%) were the worst performers.
Important DisclosuresMETHODOLOGY: We strive to search for the best businesses that trade at the lowest valuation levels as measured by an issuer’s intrinsic value on a per-share basis. In doing so, we follow both top-down and bottom-up approaches. Under the top-down approach, we attempt to study the most important quantitative and qualitative factors that we believe can affect a security's value, includingmacroeconomic, sector-specific, and company-specific factors. Under the bottom-up approach, we focus on the analysis of individual stocks by running our proprietary scoring model, includingvaluation, financial performance, sentiment, trading, risk, and value creation.
COUNTRY MACRO RATINGS: We analyze the four main sectors of a country’s macroeconomics, then we assign , , and star for low risk, moderate risk, and high risk, respectively. We usedifferent weights for each economic sector: (a) Real Sector (30% weight), (b) Monetary Sector (10% weight), (c) Fiscal Sector (25% weight), (d) External Sector (15% weight), and (e) Credit Rating andOutlook (20%).
STOCK MARKET RATINGS: We compare our year-end price targets for the subject market index on a total-return basis versus our calculated required rate of return (RRR). Taking into account ourCountry Macro Rating, we set the “Neutral” borderline (below which is “Underweight”) as 20% of RRR for Country Macro Rating, 40% of RRR for Country Macro Rating, and 60% of RRR for Country Macro Rating. That said, our index price targets are based on the average of two models. Model (1): Estimated index levels based on consensus price targets of all index constituents. Stockswith no price targets are valued at market price. Model (2): Estimated index levels based on our expected re-pricing (whether re-rating, de-rating, or unchanged rating) of the forward price-earningsratio (PER) of each index in addition to consensus earnings growth for the forward year.
SECTOR RATINGS: On the sectors level, we focus on six major sectors, namely (1) Consumer and Health Care, (2) Financials, (3) Industrials, Energy, & Utilities, (4) Materials, (5) Real Estate, and (6)Telecom Services & IT. To assess each sector, we use the SWOT analysis to list the strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and threats in each country. We then translate our qualitative SWOT analysisinto a quantitative model to evaluate all six sectors across countries. Each of the measures we used, although mostly subjective, is assigned a score as either +1 (high impact), 0 (medium impact), or -1(low impact). At a later stage, when assigning the final rating – Overweight, Neutral, or Underweight – for each sector in each country, we realize that sometimes it is unfair to assign equal weights forthe sub-sectors in each major sector assessed. Hence, some of the sub-sectors are given different weights for their significant profile in each country. Additionally, the final rating for each sector in eachspecific country is assigned based on a relative calculation comparing this sector to all other sectors in this country.
Low
(1)
Moderate
(2)
High
(3)
Buy
(B)Higher than RRR Higher than RRR Higher than RRR
Hold
(H)
Between RRR
and 20% of RRR
Between RRR
and 40% of RRR
Between RRR
and 60% of RRR
Sell
(S)
Lower than 20%
of RRR
Lower than 40%
of RRR
Lower than 60%
of RRR
Not Rated
(NR)
Not Covered
(NC)
We do not currently cover this stock or we are
restricted from coverage for regulatory reasons.
Inv
es
tme
nt
Ra
tin
g
Risk Rating
We have decided not to publish a rating on the
stock due to certain circumstances related to the
company (i.e. special situations).
If
Total Return
is …
Disclosure Appendix
SECURITY INVESTMENT RATINGS: We combine intrinsic value, relative valuation, and market sentiment into a singlerating. Our three-pronged methodology involves (1) discounted cash flows “DCF” valuation model(s), (2) relativevaluation metrics, and (3) overall sentiment. Whenever possible we attempt to apply all three aspects on the issuers orsecurities under review. In certain cases where we do not have our own financial and valuation models, we attempt toscan the market for other analysts’ value estimates and ratings (i.e. consensus view) on average. We compliment thiswith relative valuation and sentiment drivers, such as positive/neutral/negative news flows. For all issuers/securitiescovered, we have three investment ratings (Buy, Hold, or Sell), comparing the security’s expected total return (includingboth price performance and expected cash dividend) over a 12-month period versus its Required Rate of Return “RRR”as calculated using the Capital Asset Pricing Model “CAPM” and adjusted for the Risk Rating we attach to each security.Our price targets are subjective and are estimates of the analysts where the securities covered will trade within thenext 12 months. Price targets can be derived from earnings-based valuation models (e.g. Discounted Cash Flow “DCF”),asset-based valuation models (e.g. Net Asset Value “NAV”), relative valuation multiples (e.g. PER, PBV, EV/EBITDA, etc.),or a combination of them. In case we do not have our own valuation model, we use a weighted average of marketconsensus price targets and ratings. We review the investment ratings periodically or as the situation necessitates.
SECURITY RISK RATINGS: We assess the risk profile of each issuer/security covered and assign one of three risk ratings(High, Moderate, or Low). The risk rating is weighted to reflect different aspects specific to (1) the sector, (2) the issuer,(3) the security under review, and (4) volatility versus the market (as measure by beta) and versus the security’s averageannualized standard deviation. We review the risk ratings at least annually or as the situation necessitates.
Other DisclosuresMFS does not have any proprietary holding in any securities. Only as a nominee, MFS holds shares on behalf of itsclients through Omnibus accounts. MFS is not currently a market maker for any listed securities.
Analyst CertificationI (we), Ramy Oraby, Economist and Ayman Elshahed, Analyst, employed with Mubasher International, a company under the National Technology Group of Saudi Arabia being a shareholder ofMubasher Financial Services BSC (c) as author(s) to this report, hereby certify that all the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect my (our) views about the subject issuer(s) orsecurity(ies). I (we) also certify that no part of my (our) compensation was, is or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendation(s) or view(s) expressed in this report.
Head of Research CertificationI, Amr Hussein Elalfy, Global Head of Research of Mubasher Financial Services BSC (c) confirm that I have vetted the information, and all the views expressed by the Analyst in this research reportabout the subject issuer(s) or security(ies). I also certify that Research Team, the author of this report, has not received any compensation directly related to the contents of the Report.
DisclaimerThis document is not and should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to purchase or subscribe for any investment. Mubasher Financial Services BSC (c) (‘MFS’) has basedthis document on information obtained from sources it believes to be reliable but which it has not independently verified; MFS makes no guarantee, representation or warranty and accepts noresponsibility or liability as to its accuracy or completeness. The opinions contained within the document are based upon publicly available information at the time of publication and are subject tochange without notice. This document is not intended for all recipients and may not be suitable for all investors. Securities described in this document are not available for sale in all jurisdictions or tocertain category of investors. The document is not substitution for independent judgment by any recipient who should evaluate investment risks. Additionally, investors must regard this document asproviding stand-alone analysis and should not expect continuing analysis or additional documents relating to the issuers and/or securities mentioned herein. Past performance is not necessarily aguide to future performance. Forward-looking statements are not predictions and may be subject to change without notice. The value of any investment or income may go down as well as up and youmay not get back the full amount invested. Where an investment is denominated in a currency other than the local currency of the recipient of the research report, changes in the exchange rates mayhave an adverse effect on the value, price or income of that investment. In case of investments for which there is no recognized market, it may be difficult for investors to sell their investments or toobtain reliable information about its value or the extent of the risk to which it is exposed. References to ratings/recommendations are for informational purposes only and do not imply that MFSadopts, supports or confirms in any way the ratings/recommendations, opinions or conclusions of the analysts. This document is not directed or intended for distribution to, or use by, any person orentity who is a citizen or resident of or located in any locality, state, country, or other jurisdiction where such distribution, publication, availability or use would be contrary to law, regulation or whichwould subject MFS or its affiliates to any registration or licensing requirements within such jurisdiction. MFS accepts no liability for any direct, indirect, or consequential damages or losses incurred bythird parties including its clients from any use of this document or its contents.
Issuer of ReportMubasher Financial Services BSC (c) is an Investment Business Firm Category 1, licensed and regulated by the Central Bank of Bahrain.Website: www.MubasherTrade.comE-mail: [email protected]