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(Mt/Ag/EnSc/EnSt 404/504 - Global Change)(Mt/Ag/EnSc/EnSt 404/504 - Global Change) Observed Surface & Atmosphere (from IPCC WG-I, Chapter 3)Observed Surface & Atmosphere (from IPCC WG-I, Chapter 3)
Observed Changes in Observed Changes in Surface and Atmosphere ClimateSurface and Atmosphere Climate
Primary Source: Primary Source:
IPCC WG-I Chapter 3 - Observations: Surface and Atmospheric Climate ChangeIPCC WG-I Chapter 3 - Observations: Surface and Atmospheric Climate Change
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(Mt/Ag/EnSc/EnSt 404/504 - Global Change)(Mt/Ag/EnSc/EnSt 404/504 - Global Change) Observed Surface & Atmosphere (from IPCC WG-I, Chapter 3)Observed Surface & Atmosphere (from IPCC WG-I, Chapter 3)
Substantial Growth in Information on Substantial Growth in Information on Observed ClimateObserved Climate
1.1. Third Assessment Report (TAR) - 1 ChapterThird Assessment Report (TAR) - 1 Chapter
2. Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) - 3 Chapters2. Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) - 3 Chapters
(Recall growth in peer-(Recall growth in peer-reviewed literature)reviewed literature)
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(Mt/Ag/EnSc/EnSt 404/504 - Global Change)(Mt/Ag/EnSc/EnSt 404/504 - Global Change) Observed Surface & Atmosphere (from IPCC WG-I, Chapter 3)Observed Surface & Atmosphere (from IPCC WG-I, Chapter 3)
ImprovementsImprovements
1.1. Recovery of old observationsRecovery of old observations
2.2. Improved understanding of sources of errorImproved understanding of sources of error
(e.g., ocean temperatures)(e.g., ocean temperatures)
3.3. Availability and ingestion of satellite Availability and ingestion of satellite observations since 1979 (esp. for Southern observations since 1979 (esp. for Southern Hemisphere)Hemisphere)
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(Mt/Ag/EnSc/EnSt 404/504 - Global Change)(Mt/Ag/EnSc/EnSt 404/504 - Global Change) Observed Surface & Atmosphere (from IPCC WG-I, Chapter 3)Observed Surface & Atmosphere (from IPCC WG-I, Chapter 3)
Temperature Annual CycleTemperature Annual Cycle
http://geography.uoregon.edu/envchange/clim_animations/http://geography.uoregon.edu/envchange/clim_animations/
(surface)
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(Mt/Ag/EnSc/EnSt 404/504 - Global Change)(Mt/Ag/EnSc/EnSt 404/504 - Global Change) Observed Surface & Atmosphere (from IPCC WG-I, Chapter 3)Observed Surface & Atmosphere (from IPCC WG-I, Chapter 3)
Global, Annual Land-Surface TemperatureGlobal, Annual Land-Surface Temperature
Differences:
• Stations used (all > 4,000)
• Spatial averaging
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(Mt/Ag/EnSc/EnSt 404/504 - Global Change)(Mt/Ag/EnSc/EnSt 404/504 - Global Change) Observed Surface & Atmosphere (from IPCC WG-I, Chapter 3)Observed Surface & Atmosphere (from IPCC WG-I, Chapter 3)
Urbanization Effects?Urbanization Effects?
U.S. Historical Climatology NetworkT anomaly relative to 1961-1990:• Red - Full set• Blue - without “urban”• Green - “urban” only (pop >30,000 in 2000; 16%)
Red - Blue
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(Mt/Ag/EnSc/EnSt 404/504 - Global Change)(Mt/Ag/EnSc/EnSt 404/504 - Global Change) Observed Surface & Atmosphere (from IPCC WG-I, Chapter 3)Observed Surface & Atmosphere (from IPCC WG-I, Chapter 3)
Sea-Surface Temperature AnomaliesSea-Surface Temperature Anomalies
Adjustments: Evaporation from canvas/wood buckets; daytime warming of ship deck
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(Mt/Ag/EnSc/EnSt 404/504 - Global Change)(Mt/Ag/EnSc/EnSt 404/504 - Global Change) Observed Surface & Atmosphere (from IPCC WG-I, Chapter 3)Observed Surface & Atmosphere (from IPCC WG-I, Chapter 3)
Combined Combined Land-Ocean Land-Ocean
Annual Annual Temperature Temperature AnomaliesAnomalies
Error Bars: 5%-95% Error Bars: 5%-95% confidence rangeconfidence range
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(Mt/Ag/EnSc/EnSt 404/504 - Global Change)(Mt/Ag/EnSc/EnSt 404/504 - Global Change) Observed Surface & Atmosphere (from IPCC WG-I, Chapter 3)Observed Surface & Atmosphere (from IPCC WG-I, Chapter 3)
Temperature Temperature TrendsTrends
1979-2005 Trends1979-2005 Trends
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(Mt/Ag/EnSc/EnSt 404/504 - Global Change)(Mt/Ag/EnSc/EnSt 404/504 - Global Change) Observed Surface & Atmosphere (from IPCC WG-I, Chapter 3)Observed Surface & Atmosphere (from IPCC WG-I, Chapter 3)
Temperature Trends (1979-2005): SeasonalTemperature Trends (1979-2005): Seasonal
(+ = Significant at 5% level)(+ = Significant at 5% level)
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(Mt/Ag/EnSc/EnSt 404/504 - Global Change)(Mt/Ag/EnSc/EnSt 404/504 - Global Change) Observed Surface & Atmosphere (from IPCC WG-I, Chapter 3)Observed Surface & Atmosphere (from IPCC WG-I, Chapter 3)
Annual Anomalies of Annual Anomalies of Daily Max T, Min T Daily Max T, Min T
and DTRand DTR
(71% of land with data (71% of land with data available for 1950-2004)available for 1950-2004)
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(Mt/Ag/EnSc/EnSt 404/504 - Global Change)(Mt/Ag/EnSc/EnSt 404/504 - Global Change) Observed Surface & Atmosphere (from IPCC WG-I, Chapter 3)Observed Surface & Atmosphere (from IPCC WG-I, Chapter 3)
Diurnal Temperature Range
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(Mt/Ag/EnSc/EnSt 404/504 - Global Change)(Mt/Ag/EnSc/EnSt 404/504 - Global Change) Observed Surface & Atmosphere (from IPCC WG-I, Chapter 3)Observed Surface & Atmosphere (from IPCC WG-I, Chapter 3)
Atmospheric Temperature ChangesAtmospheric Temperature Changes
Baseline: 1979-1997
Satellites
Weather balloons
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(Mt/Ag/EnSc/EnSt 404/504 - Global Change)(Mt/Ag/EnSc/EnSt 404/504 - Global Change) Observed Surface & Atmosphere (from IPCC WG-I, Chapter 3)Observed Surface & Atmosphere (from IPCC WG-I, Chapter 3)
Atmospheric Temperature ChangesAtmospheric Temperature Changes
Satellites
Weather balloons
Surface stations
Page 15
(Mt/Ag/EnSc/EnSt 404/504 - Global Change)(Mt/Ag/EnSc/EnSt 404/504 - Global Change) Observed Surface & Atmosphere (from IPCC WG-I, Chapter 3)Observed Surface & Atmosphere (from IPCC WG-I, Chapter 3)
Trends Trends (1979-2004)(1979-2004)
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(Mt/Ag/EnSc/EnSt 404/504 - Global Change)(Mt/Ag/EnSc/EnSt 404/504 - Global Change) Observed Surface & Atmosphere (from IPCC WG-I, Chapter 3)Observed Surface & Atmosphere (from IPCC WG-I, Chapter 3)
Precipitation Annual CyclePrecipitation Annual Cycle
http://geography.uoregon.edu/envchange/clim_animations/http://geography.uoregon.edu/envchange/clim_animations/
(surface)
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(Mt/Ag/EnSc/EnSt 404/504 - Global Change)(Mt/Ag/EnSc/EnSt 404/504 - Global Change) Observed Surface & Atmosphere (from IPCC WG-I, Chapter 3)Observed Surface & Atmosphere (from IPCC WG-I, Chapter 3)
Global Precipitation Changes (Land)Global Precipitation Changes (Land)
(Annual total ~ 1,100 mm/yr)
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(Mt/Ag/EnSc/EnSt 404/504 - Global Change)(Mt/Ag/EnSc/EnSt 404/504 - Global Change) Observed Surface & Atmosphere (from IPCC WG-I, Chapter 3)Observed Surface & Atmosphere (from IPCC WG-I, Chapter 3)
Precipitation Precipitation TrendsTrends
(Note different scales)(Note different scales)
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(Mt/Ag/EnSc/EnSt 404/504 - Global Change)(Mt/Ag/EnSc/EnSt 404/504 - Global Change) Observed Surface & Atmosphere (from IPCC WG-I, Chapter 3)Observed Surface & Atmosphere (from IPCC WG-I, Chapter 3)
Atmospheric Atmospheric Water VaporWater Vapor
(from satellite (from satellite observations)observations)
Baseline: 1988-2004
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(Mt/Ag/EnSc/EnSt 404/504 - Global Change)(Mt/Ag/EnSc/EnSt 404/504 - Global Change) Observed Surface & Atmosphere (from IPCC WG-I, Chapter 3)Observed Surface & Atmosphere (from IPCC WG-I, Chapter 3)
Upper Upper Troposphere Troposphere Water VaporWater Vapor
(from satellite (from satellite observations)observations)
Baseline: 1982-2004
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(Mt/Ag/EnSc/EnSt 404/504 - Global Change)(Mt/Ag/EnSc/EnSt 404/504 - Global Change) Observed Surface & Atmosphere (from IPCC WG-I, Chapter 3)Observed Surface & Atmosphere (from IPCC WG-I, Chapter 3)
Land Land Cloud Cloud Cover Cover
ChangesChangesBaseline: 1976-2003
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(Mt/Ag/EnSc/EnSt 404/504 - Global Change)(Mt/Ag/EnSc/EnSt 404/504 - Global Change) Observed Surface & Atmosphere (from IPCC WG-I, Chapter 3)Observed Surface & Atmosphere (from IPCC WG-I, Chapter 3)
El Niño - Southern OscillationEl Niño - Southern Oscillation(Correlations with SOI)
Sea-level pressure Surface temperature
Precipitation
Page 23
(Mt/Ag/EnSc/EnSt 404/504 - Global Change)(Mt/Ag/EnSc/EnSt 404/504 - Global Change) Observed Surface & Atmosphere (from IPCC WG-I, Chapter 3)Observed Surface & Atmosphere (from IPCC WG-I, Chapter 3)
Pacific Pacific Decadal Decadal
OscillationOscillation
Sea-surface temperature changes
Page 24
(Mt/Ag/EnSc/EnSt 404/504 - Global Change)(Mt/Ag/EnSc/EnSt 404/504 - Global Change) Observed Surface & Atmosphere (from IPCC WG-I, Chapter 3)Observed Surface & Atmosphere (from IPCC WG-I, Chapter 3)
Extreme Extreme TemperaturesTemperatures
- - TrendsTrends
Cold: lowest 10%Cold: lowest 10%
Warm: highest 10%Warm: highest 10%
Significant at 5% level
Page 25
(Mt/Ag/EnSc/EnSt 404/504 - Global Change)(Mt/Ag/EnSc/EnSt 404/504 - Global Change) Observed Surface & Atmosphere (from IPCC WG-I, Chapter 3)Observed Surface & Atmosphere (from IPCC WG-I, Chapter 3)
ENDEND
Observed Changes in Observed Changes in Surface and Atmosphere ClimateSurface and Atmosphere Climate