Mt Eliza welcomes delegates and presenters to the 2008 UNICON conference 2008 UNICON conference
Mt Eliza welcomes delegates and presenters to the
2008 UNICON conference2008 UNICON conference
SUSTAINABILITYor
SURVIVALin a Changing World
--------------------------------William Kininmonth
CLIMATE CHANGE IS NATURAL
• SUSTAINABILITY implies managing a controlled steady-state system
• SURVIVAL requires ongoing adaptation to q g g pan ever-changing system
The fear of climate change fails to recognize that climate is forever changingthat climate is forever changing.
Climate History from Ice Cores
Vostok AntarcticaVostok, Antarctica
Earth is slowly cooling
Temperature values from the GRIP ice-core borehole in Greenland.
The top left graph shows the past 100,000 years.
The top right graph shows the past 10,000 years (the interglacial Holocene).
The bottom graph shows the past 2 000 yearsthe past 2,000 years.
Drying since the Holocene Optimumy g s ce t e o oce e Opt u
Hanakaya, Saudi Arabia Rock carvings of grazing animals 4 000 years oldanimals – 4,000 years old
Evidence for a drying climate from North Africa, y g ,through the Middle East, and to Mongolia
Alpine Glaciers Advance and Retreat
As climate cooled fromAs climate cooled from the Medieval Warm Period to the Little Ice Age glaciers advanced
ld id W iworldwide. Warming again set in during the early 18th century and the glaciers have gretreated.
Today there is no sign of the glacier that hadof the glacier that had extended to the French village of Chamonix.
Cyclic Rainfall Patterns
Southeastern Australian RainfallMean 600mm
0
50090
1
906
911
916
921
926
931
936
941
946
951
956
961
966
971
976
981
986
991
996 01 06mm
)
Mean - 600mm
-1000
-500
19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 20 20
late
d A
nom
aly
(m
-2000
-1500
Acc
umul
YearsYears
Rainfall over Southeastern Australia was greater in the second half of the 20th century than the first half.
Internal Climate Variabilityte a C ate a ab ty
El Nino March ‘98 La Nina March ‘08El Nino – March 98 La Nina – March 08
CO2 Forcing Needs VIAGRA!
25 0s (W
/m2) Radiation Forcing increments with CO2 concentration
15.0
20.0
25.0
rcin
g in
crem
ents
5.0
10.0
Rad
iatio
n fo
r
50 100 200 400 800Incremental Reduction in Infrared
Radiation Emission to Space 19.2 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.8
0.0
CO2 concentrationCO2 concentration
CO2 is a potent greenhouse gas but its Radiation Forcing potential is now nearly expended.
Evaporation constrains Surface Temperaturep
• More than 70 percent of Earth’s surface isMore than 70 percent of Earth s surface is ocean or well-watered land
• As surface temperature rises by 1oC:• As surface temperature rises by 1oC:– IR emission increases 5.4 W/m2
L t t h t l i 6 0 W/ 2– Latent heat loss increases 6.0 W/m2
• The radiation forcing from a doubling of 2CO2 concentration (3.7 W/m2) can only
sustain a surface temperature rise of 0.3oC
Computers Cannot Predict Climate
• The climate system is complex andThe climate system is complex and subject to many interacting processes.
• It is only in the last 5 years that routine• It is only in the last 5 years that routine measurements of the subsurface ocean circulations have been availablecirculations have been available.
• Models cannot represent deep convection.• Models grossly underestimate evaporation
increase with temperature.
Summarising the Science
• Climate is:Climate is: – Naturally variable
Regulated by a variety of influences– Regulated by a variety of influences– Not predictable
• Variations of climate have profound impact
Misunderstood ScienceMisguided Policiesg
• Geosequestration (burying) CO2Geosequestration (burying) CO2– Burn fossil fuels (non-renewable) faster!
Redirect agricultural focus• Redirect agricultural focus– Bio-fuels replace food crops to the detriment
of the world’s poor?of the world s poor?• Environment policies focus on reducing
CO i i th th l i lCO2 emission rather than clean air, clean water, ecosystem
ti tpreservation, etc
SUMMARY
• Humankind faces real problems butHumankind faces real problems but human-caused global warming is not one!
Climate will change faster than we are– Climate will change faster than we are prepared for
– Water renewable energy and food productionWater, renewable energy and food production are each regulated by changing climate
• SURVIVAL requires different policies to• SURVIVAL requires different policies to those for SUSTAINABILITY