Re-examining NATO-Russia Relations T HE R OLE OF V ERIFIABLE M ISSILE D EFENSE T HE R OLE OF V ERIFIABLE M ISSILE D EFENSE T RANSPARENCY Ivanka Barzashka RUSI Missile Defense Conference March 18, 2014
Jul 16, 2015
Re-examining NATO-Russia RelationsT HE ROLE OF V ERIF IABLE M ISS ILE D EFENSET HE ROLE OF V ERIF IABLE M ISS ILE D EFENSE
T RANSPARENCY
Ivanka Barzashka
RUSI Missile Defense Conference
March 18, 2014
Outline
1. Why should NATO’s strategy for
BMD engagement with Russia
focus on transparency?focus on transparency?
2. What would a transparency
regime look like?
3. What are the challenges?
Why Transparency?
Renewed Cooperation
Data fusion center Sharing telemetry
Integrating Russian technology
Operations planning center
Joint BMD analysis Observing BMD tests
Joint satellite development
Options for “Cooperation”
Joint satellite development
Joint threat assessment
Reciprocal declarations of capability
Joint radar development Military exercises
Verification of capability
Early warning of missile launches
Data fusion center Sharing telemetry
Integrating Russian technology
Operations planning center
Joint BMD analysis Observing BMD tests
Joint satellite development
Joint Operational Response
Joint satellite development
Joint threat assessment
Reciprocal declarations of capability
Joint radar development Military exercises
Verification of capability
Early warning of missile launches
Data fusion center Sharing telemetry
Integrating Russian technology
Operations planning center
Joint BMD analysis Observing BMD tests
Joint satellite development
Preserving Strategic Stability
Joint satellite development
Joint threat assessment
Reciprocal declarations of capability
Joint radar development Military exercises
Verification of capability
Early warning of missile launches
We propose to develop a transparency regime based upon a regular exchange of information about the information about the current respective missile defence capabilities of NATO and Russia.Chicago Summit Declaration, May 2012
The disagreements still remain, but I agree, in general, with President Obama that what we must and certainly can must and certainly can do in this area is make all our actions more open and transparent.
President Vladimir Putin, July 2013
RUSSIAN PROPOSALS FOR MUTUALLY ACCEPTIBLE DECISIONS
9
CRITERIA LIST:
�technical performances of BMD components (interceptor’s speed, number of
interceptors, radar range, control system capabilities etc.),
�deployment sites,
�capabilities for interception of various types of BMs at boost, midcourse and terminal
phases of flight.
joint familiarization with European BMD deployment plans and its implications for the joint familiarization with European BMD deployment plans and its implications for the
relevant strategic deterrence capabilities
development of verification measures to assure security of strategic capabilities
legally binding agreements defining mutual obligations of the pertinent parties to deploy a European BMD system providing equal security to all
participants
Lessons
1. Transparency is a prerequisite to serious
cooperation with Russia
2. High level agreement that transparency is a good
thingthing
3. Characteristics of a mutually agreeable regime
a. Legally binding
b. Technical criteria
c. Verification mechanism
d. No limits to capability
Confrontation
How Could Transparency Work?
Objectives
Provide verifiable political and technical
guarantees that BMD:
• Does not threaten strategic stability• Does not threaten strategic stability
• Deployments correspond to stated
threat
Key Elements
• Reciprocal exchanges of information on
missile defense capability
• Verification measures: NTM and
inspections
• Verification measures: NTM and
inspections
• No limits to capability
Transparency Challenges
Verification
• BMD verification not comprehensively
explored
• Past proposals for BMD confidence-
building measures
• Past proposals for BMD confidence-
building measures
• Experience with nuclear and
conventional arms control
Reciprocity
• Same data sharing and verification
requirements
• Asymmetry in BMD deployments• Asymmetry in BMD deployments
Offense-Defense
• Russian military developments
• Possible changes to deterrence postures
• Link BMD transparency to INF • Link BMD transparency to INF
compliance and non-deployment of
new nuclear-capable missiles in Europe
• Transparency should not jeapordize
BMD capability
Re-examining BMD Engagement with Russia
• Focus away from operational
coordination and toward a verifiable
transparency regime
Transparency is a pre-requisite to • Transparency is a pre-requisite to
serious cooperation
• Transparency can help prevent arms
races and de-escalate a crisis